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Brazilian Inflation Has Decreased, But Persistent Pressures Remain, Says Cenbank Governor Published: 14 April 2023

  • Brazil's central bank governor Roberto Campos Neto stated last Wednesday that while inflation has decreased, persistent pressures remain, following recent data that has buoyed the market and fueled bets of earlier monetary easing.
  • Consumer prices in the 12 months to March reached their lowest point since January 2021, at 4.65%, according to data released on Tuesday, which led to a significant rise in the Brazilian stock exchange and a strengthening of the currency against the dollar.
  • In a presentation to investors organized by XP Investimentos in Washington and released by the central bank, Campos Neto also highlighted that the demand-driven component of inflation in the country remains "relatively strong."
  • This assessment contrasts with that of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his political allies, who have argued that the country is not experiencing demand-driven inflation, fueled by consumption, and therefore the restrictive monetary policy of the central bank is not justified.
  • Policymakers have kept the interest rate unchanged at a six-year high of 13.75% since September, despite frequent criticism from Lula. Campos Neto further noted that long-term inflation expectations were anchored towards official targets in 2022, but there has been a deterioration process since November, which led markets to start pricing rate hikes on a six-month horizon.

(Source: Reuters)

UK Lenders See Weak Mortgage Lending, But No Wider Credit Crunch Published: 14 April 2023

  • British lenders expect to rein in the supply of new mortgages in the coming quarter but there was scant sign of a wider credit crunch following recent stress in the global banking system, a Bank of England survey showed on Thursday.
  • Officials have been watching out for any tightening in British credit conditions in light of the failures of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank last month. "Despite all the monetary tightening and the turmoil of March, there is not too much evidence of banks pulling back," said Liz Martins, an economist at HSBC - though she noted that the survey ran from Feb. 27 to March 17, so some responses would have predated the bank collapses.
  • Nonetheless, Thursday's credit conditions survey is likely to diminish worries that a widespread seize-up of credit markets poses a big risk to Britain's economy, which has shown little momentum of late.
  • Lenders signalled that loan spreads - the additional interest that banks charge to borrowers over and above the market rate - were likely to narrow in the second quarter. Spreads on mortgages had widened sharply due to the financial market turmoil unleashed in September during former prime minister Liz Truss's short-lived premiership.
  • The BoE said lenders plan to restrict the supply of secured lending to households in the second quarter, with mortgage approvals data already showing signs of a sharp slowdown. While that may weaken housing market activity in the months ahead, the survey showed lenders expect to increase the supply of consumer credit and maintain existing levels of corporate lending in the coming months.

(Source: Reuters)

Stocks Gain, Gold Jumps on Goldilocks Economic Outlook Published: 14 April 2023

  • Bond prices and the global stock market gauge rose on Thursday after tamed producer prices and a jump in weekly jobless claims bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve may soon pause its hiking of interest rates to tame high inflation.
  • Gold zoomed to a 13-month high and the dollar weakened after the data lowered expectations that the Fed will again raise rates in May. This brought relief to investors worried that tight monetary policy could provoke a U.S. recession. The Labour Department's producer price index for final demand dropped 0.5% in March, the most since April 2020, after being unchanged in February, while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose to a three-month high last week.
  • Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose 0.1% in March on a month-over-month basis. Economists expected an increase of 0.2%, according to Dow Jones. Year-over-year, the CPI rose 5% while economists had forecast a 5.1% advance. That year-over-year figure is also lower than the 6% jump seen in February. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.4% month over month.

(Source: Reuters)

MSMEs Benefit from $13 Billion in Gov’t Funding Support Published: 13 April 2023

  • A total of $13 billion in affordable loans and credit guarantees were provided for Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) by the Government during the fiscal year 2022/23. This was disclosed by Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, during the University of Technology (UTech) Jamaica’s 41st annual marketing seminar at the Jamaica Conference Centre in downtown Kingston, on Wednesday (April 5).
  • The provision formed part of the Government’s efforts to improve MSMEs’ access to financing. Senator Hill highlighted that the Ministry, through the National Export-Import (EXIM) Bank, provided special soft loans at an interest rate of 4.75 per cent for eligible MSMEs.
  • He indicated that small and medium-sized enterprises were able to access up to $25 million, and micro businesses a maximum of $5 million, for up to five years.
  • That $13 billion involves guarantees, including DBJ (Development Bank of Jamaica), not just the EXIM Bank.
  • These efforts serve to stimulate growth and develop unfunded MSMEs, particularly where there is great potential for value-added products which are poised for export.
  • Medium, small and micro enterprises (MSMEs) are essential to the Jamaican economy, making up over 97% of the island’s taxpaying businesses. The sector is responsible for the majority of employment in Jamaica and drives economic growth and development. As such, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) continuously seeks to strengthen the sector through programmes that support these businesses.

(Source: JIS News)

Brazil To End Tax Exemption On International Orders, Targeting Asian E-Commerce Giants Published: 13 April 2023

  • Brazil's government announced on Tuesday, April 11, it would end a tax exemption on international orders up to $50 as part of an effort to tax purchases from global retail giants.
  • The revenue service said that the exemption never applied to e-commerce but only to shipments from individual to individual, and had been "widely and fraudulently used for sales made by foreign companies." Given this, there would no longer be any distinction in treatment between legal entities and individual shipments, with international orders subject to the existing 60% taxation on their value.
  • The measure is expected to benefit local retailers and comes after widespread complaints from the sector about unfair competition from Asian giants such as AliExpress, Shein, and Shopee.
  • Finance Minister Fernando Haddad had already stated that the government would soon unveil tax measures aimed at those who were not paying taxes to boost revenue and improve public accounts.
  • Haddad emphasized that "one or two global players" were disguising their e-commerce as person-to-person shipments to avoid paying taxes. Combating this practice, which Haddad called "smuggling," is expected to generate between 7 billion and 8 billion reais in new revenue for the government.

(Source: Reuters)

IMF Projects 37.2% Local Economic Growth For Guyana This Year Published: 13 April 2023

  • Guyana is on course to record economic growth of 37.2% by the end of this year, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
  • Driven by prudent fiscal management and growing sectors, including the burgeoning oil and gas sector, Guyana is set to record significant economic growth and persevere through global and domestic challenges.
  • With several new projects ongoing, oil production will continue to vastly contribute to the advancement of Guyana’s economy, solidifying the economy’s foundation and enhancing the overall well-being and welfare of every Guyanese.
  • Guyana is the only country within the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region expected to record double-digit growth this year and in the near future. The IMF reported that real gross domestic product (GDP) growth could be even higher next year, reaching 45.3% given oil production prospects.
  • Consistent growth is expected in Guyana, even as the IMF reported that tentative signs in early 2023 that the world economy could achieve a soft landing (with inflation coming down and growth steady) have receded amid stubbornly high inflation and recent financial-sector turmoil.
  • Despite the global situation, based on its economic performance over the past two years, Guyana has a solid foundation upon which to continue broadening its horizons and advancing significantly, especially given noteworthy oil production in the medium term.

(Source: IMF)

WHO says China Records World's First Human Death From H3N8 Bird Flu Published: 13 April 2023

  • A Chinese woman has become the first person to die from a type of bird flu that is rare in humans, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said, but the strain does not appear to spread easily between people.
  • The 56-year-old woman from the southern province of Guangdong was the third person known to have been infected with the H3N8 subtype of Avian Influenza. All of the cases have been in China, with the first two cases reported last year.
  • The Guangdong Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention reported this third infection late last month but did not provide details of the woman's death. The WHO stated that the patient had multiple underlying conditions, and a history of exposure to live poultry. Sporadic infections in people with bird flu are common in China where Avian flu viruses constantly circulate in huge poultry and wild bird populations.
  • Samples collected from a wet market visited by the woman before she became ill were positive for influenza A(H3), said the WHO, suggesting this may have been the source of infection. Though rare in people, H3N8 is common in birds in which it shows little to no symptoms. It has also infected other mammals. There were no other cases found among close contacts of the infected woman, the WHO said.
  • "Based on available information, it appears that this virus does not have the ability to spread easily from person to person, and therefore the risk of it spreading among humans at the national, regional, and international levels is considered to be low," the WHO said in the statement. Monitoring of all Avian Influenza viruses is considered important given their ability to evolve and cause a pandemic.

(Source: Reuters)

Treasury Yields Fall After US Inflation Comes In Cooler Than Forecast in March Published: 13 April 2023

  • U.S. Treasury yields fell Wednesday after the release of new inflation figures, as traders bet the Federal Reserve would halt rate increases sooner than expected. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell 3 basis points to 3.41%, while the 2-year Treasury rate slid 6 basis points to 4.0%.
  • Minutes from the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting released Wednesday showed the central bank expects a recession this year on the turmoil in the banking sector stemming from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
  • “Given their assessment of the potential economic effects of the recent banking-sector developments, the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years,” the meeting summary said.
  • Meanwhile, the consumer price index rose 0.1% in March on a month-over-month basis. Economists expected an increase of 0.2%, according to Dow Jones. Year over year, the CPI rose 5% while economists had forecast a 5.1% advance. That year-over-year figure is also lower than the 6% jump seen in February. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.4% month over month.
  • The Fed’s next interest rate decision in May is likely to be impacted by the fresh inflation figures. The central bank noted after its last meeting that a rate hike pause could be on the horizon if data showed sufficient signs that the economy is cooling.

(Source: CNBC)

PanJam Investment and Jamaica Producers Group Announce Successful Completion of Amalgamation Published: 13 April 2023

  • Jamaica Producers Group Limited (JP) and PanJam Investment Limited have announced the successful completion of the amalgamation process, which was approved by the shareholders of both companies on December 22, 2022. The amalgamation agreement between the two Jamaican conglomerates, saw JP transfer its material businesses to PanJam in exchange for JP receiving a 34.5% ownership stake in PanJam.
  • The amalgamation creates a formidable player in the Jamaican investor landscape with diverse interests in real estate and infrastructure, specialty food and drink manufacturing, agri-business, financial services, and a global services network of interests in hotels and attractions, business process outsourcing, shipping, logistics, and port operations, in locations across the world. With effect from April 1, 2023, PanJam will change its name to Pan Jamaica Group and will hold the combined businesses.
  • Jeffrey Hall, who was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Pan Jamaica Group on April 1, 2023, highlighted that the company is pleased to have completed the transaction which represents an important milestone for both companies. The newly appointed President of Pan Jamaica Group, Joanna Banks, had the same sentiments about the amalgamation.
  • The amalgamation will see the two companies combining their strengths and expertise to capitalize on new opportunities whilst creating greater value for stakeholders.

(Source: JSE)                

Mexican Budget Deficit to Widen In 2023 as Infrastructure Spending Ramps Up Published: 13 April 2023

  • Fitch Solutions is forecasting that the Mexican budget deficit will widen modestly from 3.4% of GDP in 2022 to 3.8% in 2023. 
  • Mexico is an unusual case in that the deficit barely widened in response to the COVID crisis (from 1.7% in 2019 to 2.8% in 2020), as President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) government refrained from rolling out significant income support schemes.
  • Mexico’s fiscal position has, however, deteriorated somewhat, driven by a ramp-up in public investment, an uptick in debt servicing costs and a modest increase in social spending that largely reflects an increase in pension payments and the rollout of some cost of living support.
  • Fitch, therefore, anticipates that these trends will remain in place ahead of elections scheduled for July 2024, with a decline in oil-related revenues set to exacerbate the deterioration.
  • Owing to the widening budget deficit, Fitch also anticipates that Mexico’s debt-to-GDP ratio will increase modestly from 50.0% of GDP in 2022 to 50.6% in 2023, with strong nominal economic growth helping to prevent a larger jump.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)