These Are the Signs a U.S. Recession May Be Coming

• While almost all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect growth to stay positive this year the risk of a recession is seen at a six-year high.

 

• The New York Fed recession-probability tracker based on the average monthly spread between yields on three-month and 10-year Treasuries. The latest reading showed the chance of a recession at 23.6% for the 12 months through next January, the highest since the reading for the year through July 2008.

 

• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. researchers say that for every 1 percentage-point decline in growth outside the U.S., American expansion is reduced by about half a point. They currently figure a 14% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year; that rises to 46% with a 3 percentage-point decline in global growth.

 

(Source: Bloomberg)