Double-Digit Growth Forecast for Barbados, Says IMF

• The IMF is predicting major growth of 11.2% for the Barbados economy this year and 4.9% in 2023, even as it downgrades its global growth forecast. At the same time, the fund is predicting that with the most vulnerable globally facing added pressures from rising prices, countries could be faced with social instability and food insecurity. 
• This healthy growth rate, which is in line with double-digit projections by the Barbados Central Bank at the start of the year, comes against the backdrop of a surge in consumer prices and other elevated risks as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine. 
• Noting that the Russia-Ukraine war will contribute to a significant slowdown in global economic growth this year, the IMF is predicting global growth of 3.6% for this year and next year, down from the 4.4% for this year and 3.8% for 2023, which was predicted back in January. 
• The Russia-Ukraine war, coupled with the continued effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation, and expected bottlenecks in supply chains as a result of the new lockdowns in China should also result in a continued rise in inflation globally. Consequently, in the case of oil and other commodity importers such as Barbados, the IMF official cautioned that a surge in prices could spell trouble, with the war adding to a series of supply chain shocks that will spread “far and wide.
• Against this backdrop, inflation is expected to remain elevated for much longer and may lead to more aggressive responses from policymakers. However, the IMF is willing to provide assistance and urges countries to put “carefully calibrated and temporary” fiscal and monetary measures in place to help provide ease to their population.

(Source: Barbados Today)