Spiking Inflation And High Crime Levels To Slightly Worsen Political Stability In Trinidad & Tobago In 2023

• Fitch Solutions is expecting social stability in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) to worsen in 2023, as inflation rises and crime rates surge. While T&T’s outlook on social stability is not the worst by regional standards, it will be facing headwinds in 2023.
• The government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation has led it to remove subsidies on key goods. These subsidies on food and fuel were in place since commodity and food prices spiked in early 2022.
• Consequently, inflation has risen dramatically, and if price pressures persist through 2023, ‘cost of living’ protests may become more commonplace in the country. Additionally, the government has not been successful in tapering the sharp rise in crime, seen since the end of the pandemic, which negatively affects Fitch’s ‘security’ component in its Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI).
• Given these reasons, Fitch Solutions have revised its STPRI score for Trinidad & Tobago from 65.0 to 64.3 out of 100.
• Despite a higher risk of protests, broad policy continuity is expected from Dr Keith Rowley’s government, as his People’s National Movement retains a comfortable majority in parliament until 2025.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)