• Jamaica’s economy has been hit by external headwinds over the last 12 months, but the largest shock was Hurricane Melissa (October 28, 2025), the most extreme tropical system to make landfall in the country’s history, with estimated damage and losses of 56.7% of GDP, comparable to Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
• Hurricane Melissa was one of the most devastating storms ever to hit Jamaica, significantly more intense than Gilbert, highlighting the country’s increasing exposure to severe natural hazard events.
• In response, Jamaica’s 2022 Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) policy introduced a comprehensive framework to address relief, recovery, and reconstruction across both high-frequency and low-frequency events. The framework is also based on the concept of ‘risk layering’, meaning that different levels of risk are covered by different financial instruments, with each instrument designed to be best suited to the risk it is intended to address. As such, resilience has been built through a comprehensive disaster risk financing strategy.
• This framework made available US$662Mn in government resources for immediate recovery, later increased to over US$1.07Bn with International Monetary Fund (IMF) support (US$415Mn in January 2026), helping to address urgent needs such as medical attention, shelters, food security, and restoration of energy, water, and transport.
•  Additional instruments, including the US$150Mn catastrophe bond (2024–2027), which was fully triggered by Melissa, demonstrate proactive financial preparedness, even though total damages (approximately US$12.2Bn) far exceeded the current available resources of US$1.08Bn.
• While recovery will take several years, Jamaica’s strong track record of fiscal management and pre-arranged financing mechanisms have been critical in enabling a rapid response, supporting recovery efforts, and strengthening long-term resilience to extreme natural disasters.

(Source: Inter-American Development Bank)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has upgraded its Regional Scale Local Currency (LC) and Foreign Currency (FC) Ratings for the Government of Barbados (GOB) by one-notch to CariBBB+. The ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of this obligor, adjudged in relation to other obligors in the Caribbean is adequate.
• The one-notch upgrade reflects strengthening across key macroeconomic and policy pillars, including income and economic structure, fiscal policy, monetary/exchange rate management, external sector strength, and political stability.
• Key drivers of the rating improvement include a continued decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, which fell to 94.6% in December 2025 from 97.2% a year earlier, supported by sustained fiscal consolidation efforts. Economic growth remains strong and broad-based, driven mainly by tourism, business services, and construction activity, while tourism performance continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels with record long-stay arrivals supporting foreign exchange earnings.
• In addition, the successful completion of the IMF Extended Fund Facility programme has further strengthened policy credibility and enabled access to additional IMF support through the Resilience and Sustainability Trust. Fiscal performance has also improved, with the primary balance increasing to 4.0% of GDP in FY 2024/25, exceeding expectations, while external buffers remain strong, with gross international reserves providing more than six months of import cover and supporting external debt servicing capacity.
• CariCRIS maintains a stable outlook, expecting continued fiscal discipline (primary surpluses above 3%) and moderate growth to support debt reduction over the medium term. Positive rating triggers include a reduction in debt below 85% of GDP (currently at 93.3%), which would signal further strengthening of the sovereign balance sheet, as well as sustained fiscal surpluses above 3% of GDP over the next 12 months, which would reinforce the medium-term debt reduction trajectory.
• Negative rating risks include import cover falling below 12 weeks without credible sources of external reserve replenishment, delays in tourism-related investment projects scheduled for 2026 that could weaken growth prospects. It also includes slippage in the implementation of the Barbados Economic Reform and Transformation (BERT) 2026 programme that could undermine fiscal consolidation, and a sustained deterioration in the fiscal balance that weakens the primary surplus and slows progress toward debt reduction targets.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• Venezuela’s refining network is operating well below capacity, processing around 399,000 barrels per day (bpd), or roughly 31% of its 1.29 million-bpd installed capacity, marking a decline from about 35% in February as state-owned oil and gas company of Venezuela Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) continues to struggle with maintaining stable operations after restarting multiple units.
• This weaker performance comes despite a gradual recovery in oil production and exports following a supply agreement with the U.S. earlier in the year. However, persistent constraints, including unreliable electricity supply, frequent power outages, and the need for extensive maintenance and repairs across ageing infrastructure, continue to limit the country’s ability to restore refining activity to higher levels.
• PDVSA has recently focused on restarting key fuel-processing units across its refinery network, but operational reliability remains weak. In particular, several fluid catalytic cracking units, which are critical for converting crude into higher-value fuels like gasoline, have been unable to run continuously, leading to unstable output and limiting overall refining efficiency.
• At the Paraguana Refining Centre, the country’s largest facility with a capacity of about 955,000 bpd, four crude distillation units are currently active and processing approximately 237,000 bpd of oil. However, only one fluid catalytic cracking unit is in operation, highlighting significant downstream bottlenecks that constrain fuel output despite crude throughput.
• At the Puerto la Cruz refinery, two crude distillation units are operating and processing about 82,000 bpd, while at the smaller El Palito refinery, one crude unit is active, processing roughly 80,000 bpd, alongside a single operational catalytic cracking unit. These partial operations reflect a broader pattern of intermittent functionality across the refining system rather than sustained recovery.
• Despite this limited recovery, Venezuela continues to face recurring risks of domestic fuel shortages, a problem that has historically led to long queues at petrol stations during periods of tight supply. To mitigate these constraints, PDVSA has been importing naphtha under U.S. authorisations to help blend and supplement domestic fuel production, underscoring continued dependence on external inputs to stabilise fuel supply.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. economic growth slowed more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter amid downgrades to business investment, including inventory accumulation, but corporate profits increased ​sharply, government data showed.
• Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a downwardly ‌revised 0.5% annualised rate, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third GDP estimate. The economy was previously reported to have grown at a 0.7% pace in the fourth quarter. The advance estimate had put GDP growth at 1.4%.
• Revisions to the fourth quarter's growth pace reflected downgrades to business spending ​on intellectual products as well as inventories. Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more ​than two-thirds of the economy, was revised down to a 1.9% pace from the previously reported 2.0% rate.
• Last year's shutdown of the government was the key driver of the slowdown from the ​third quarter's 4.4% growth pace. Neither the third- nor fourth-quarter GDP readings is a true reflection of the economy's health. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, which exclude government, trade and inventories, grew ‌at ⁠a 1.8% pace in the fourth quarter. This measure of domestic demand, closely watched by policymakers, was previously estimated to have increased at a 1.9% rate. Domestic demand grew at a 2.9% pace in the July-September quarter.
• Profits from current production increased at ​a rate of $246.9 ​billion in the ⁠fourth quarter, surging from a $175.6 billion growth pace in the third quarter. When measured from the income side, the economy grew at ​a 2.6% rate in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic income (GDI) increased ​at a ⁠3.5% pace in the July-September quarter.
• The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, grew at ⁠a 1.5% ​rate. Gross domestic output grew at a 4.0% ​rate in the third quarter. Though growth likely picked up in the first quarter, the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran ​is casting a cloud over the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. inflation increased as expected in February and likely rose further in March amid the war with Iran, a trend that is expected to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates for a while. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index ​climbed 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3 gain in January, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said ‌on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PCE price index rising 0.4%.
• In the 12 months through February, PCE inflation advanced 2.8% after increasing by the same margin in January.
• The BEA is still catching up on data releases following delays caused by last year's government ​shutdown. Inflation was already elevated before the war, largely because of President Donald Trump's import duties. The U.S.-Israel ​war with Iran boosted global oil prices and sent the national average gasoline retail price soaring ⁠above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years.
• Economists expect the inflation fallout from the ​conflict, which started at the end of February, would be more pronounced in March's data. Trump on Tuesday announced a ​two-week ceasefire on condition of Tehran reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, which has also affected shipments of fertilisers and other goods. The disruptions are expected to raise food prices.
• Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index increased 0.4% in February, rising by the same ​margin for a third straight month. In the 12 months through February, core PCE inflation advanced 3.0% following a ​3.1% increase in January.
• The slowdown in year-on-year core PCE inflation reflected last year's high readings dropping out of the calculation.

(Source: Reuters)

• A UK-based oil and gas exploration company says new offshore testing in Jamaican waters has identified hydrocarbons that could signal the presence of petroleum beneath the seabed.
• United Oil & Gas plc (UOG) announced on Wednesday that it has completed analysis of seabed samples collected from the Walton-Morant Licence, an area long considered to hold potential oil and gas reserves.  The company said the results mark an important step toward determining whether offshore drilling could eventually take place.
• During its recent Seabed Geochemical Exploration (SGE) survey, UOG has undertaken a geochemical analysis on the 42 piston cores acquired across the Walton-Morant Licence. The analysis has identified C4 and C5 hydrocarbons, including butanes and pentanes, in select piston cores within the headspace gas dataset. The Walton-Morant licence could contain approximately 7 billion barrels of prospective resources, though this represents potential rather than confirmed reserves.
• These higher order hydrocarbons are not typically associated with biogenic gas systems and are therefore consistent with a potential thermogenic contribution. This distinction is significant because thermogenic hydrocarbons are more commonly linked to oil and gas deposits, whereas biogenic gas usually forms closer to the surface and is less likely to indicate large-scale petroleum resources.
• There is an established body of evidence for an active petroleum system in Jamaica in general, and on the licence in particular, including repeat satellite slick anomalies, thermogenic hydrocarbon geochemistry from existing onshore and offshore wells, onshore and offshore oil seeps, and onshore surface outcrops.
• Furthermore, petroleum systems modelling suggests the presence of oil-mature source rocks. The 2026 SGE survey is the first on the licence to be optimally positioned using 3D seismic, multibeam echosounder (MBES) seabed mapping, and satellite-derived slick anomaly data.
• Taken together, the data are interpreted as consistent with an active petroleum system offshore Jamaica.

(Sources: United Oil and Gas PLC and Caribbean National Weekly)

• Guyana has earned over US$761Mn in the first three months of 2026, marking its highest quarterly earnings on record since production activities commenced in December 2019.
• According to the petroleum receipts, earnings were supported by 10 profit oil payments made between December 30, 2025, and March 31, 2026, along with one royalty payment relating to 2025 fourth quarter production amounting to US$110.89Mn, as oil prices remained above US$100 per barrel.
• Total profit oil payments during the quarter reached US$650.82Mn, while overall inflows into the Natural Resource Fund, including profit oil and royalty, amounted to US$761.72Mn, reflecting strong revenue inflows under elevated oil price conditions.
• Under the 2016 Petroleum Agreement, Guyana receives 2% royalty and 12.5% of profit oil, while 75% is deducted by ExxonMobil for cost recovery, after which the remaining balance of crude oil is shared equally (50/50) between the Government and the Contractor, in line with Article 11 provisions.
• Production remains robust, with four Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessels (FPSOs) in the Stabroek Block producing a combined ~916,000 barrels per day (bpd), including Liza One (~130,000 bpd), Liza Unity (~265,000 bpd), Prosperity (~265,000 bpd), and One Guyana (~260,000 bpd), while ExxonMobil has expended US$40Bn to develop seven approved projects, with US$5Bn remaining in the cost bank.
• Higher oil prices are accelerating cost recovery, meaning ExxonMobil is repaying costs faster, which could result in a significant increase in Guyana’s share of revenues from crude sales, moving beyond the roughly 14.5% currently received into the Natural Resource Fund, and strengthening the country’s fiscal position over time.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• T&T is preparing for a major economic shift between 2026 and 2027. While the economy is expected to grow by only 0.7 per cent in 2026, the World Bank forecasts a strong comeback in 2027, with a real GDP growth rate of 3.2 per cent. This jump marks a significant recovery after a few years of slower movement, including an estimated 0.8 per cent in 2025 and a 2.5 per cent peak in 2024.
• While the 2027 outlook improves, T&T’s growth remains relatively conservative within the region, significantly trailing Guyana, which continues to lead the region with massive double-digit projections of 16.3 per cent and 23.5 per cent for those same years. Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026. By comparison, Trinidad and Tobago, another hydrocarbon producer, benefits intermittently from gas-related activity; however, it has a more mature production profile, without the scale of expansion seen in Guyana.
• In the Caribbean, the oil-driven expansion of Guyana, and soon Suriname, and to a lesser degree Trinidad and Tobago, is widening divergence relative to economies that depend heavily on tourism. Compared to other tourism-dependent or service-based economies, T&T’s 3.2 per cent forecast for 2027 places it ahead of Barbados (3.0 per cent) and The Bahamas (1.9 per cent) for that year. However, in the near-term Trinidad is expected to underperform several regional peers, with St Vincent and the Grenadines (3.0%) and Grenada (3.1%) projected to grow faster than T&T’s 0.7% in 2026.
• Across Latin America and the Caribbean, growth remains constrained, with regional GDP projected at 2.1% in 2026 (down from 2.4% in 2025), leaving the region among the slowest-growing globally, with GDP per capita barely increasing and income gains remaining essentially flat.
• According to the World Bank, the lack of improvement comes with downward revisions in some country projections and reflects a familiar mix of demand: private consumption remains the main driver, while investment stays subdued amid elevated global and domestic uncertainty and still restrictive real (inflation-adjusted) financing conditions.
• The bank further noted that growth and quality job creation in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) remain subdued amid a challenging global environment. Inflation continues to decline, but monetary easing has proceeded more slowly than anticipated, non-energy commodity prices are softening, and persistent fiscal deficits continue to constrain needed investment. In addition, the rapid evolution of the global trade regime, together with heightened volatility in energy markets linked to the recent conflict in the Middle East, creates high levels of uncertainty around investment, inflation, and monetary policy, undermining medium-term growth prospects.

(Sources: World Bank and Trinidad and Tobago Guardian)

• Major global investment banks now expect China to keep official interest rates steady this year, scaling back earlier rate-cut calls, as the impact from the Middle East conflict appears ​limited, even as Beijing maintains a loose policy stance. The receding rate cut expectations ‌also comes as China holds up better than its regional peers amid the Iran war, while the broader economy has shown early signs of a rebound.
• "Against the backdrop of China's relative resilience amid Hormuz disruptions, better-than-expected activity ​data in January-February, and the producer price index (PPI) likely turning positive in March, we see ​no clear catalyst for a policy rate cut in 2026," Xinquan Chen, ⁠China economist at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.
• "We therefore remove our call for a 10-basis-point (bps) ​rate cut in the third quarter from our baseline," he said, while maintaining expectations for a ​50 bps reduction in cash that banks must set aside as reserves.
• While many other countries are grappling with higher inflation risks, China has faced deflationary pressure, giving it some leeway to counter inflation concerns stoked by rising ​oil prices. Additionally, China is largely insulated from the energy supply shock because it has ​higher oil and gas reserves.
• Late on Tuesday, the United States and Iran ​agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Meanwhile, China's central bank ​has said it will maintain an "appropriately loose" monetary stance this year, deploying ​tools including ⁠reserve requirement cuts and interest rates to keep liquidity ample.
• The banking system has shown signs of abundant liquidity since the start of the month, with the trade-weighted overnight repo hovering at near ⁠three-year lows ​and the seven-day repo falling below the main policy ​rate. "As the growth momentum is within the policy target, we no longer expect policy rate cuts in both 2026 and 2027," ​analysts at ANZ said in a note.

(Source: Reuters)

• A growing group of Federal Reserve policymakers felt last month that interest rate hikes might be ​needed to counter inflation that continued to exceed the central bank's 2% target, particularly given the inflationary impact of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, according ‌to the minutes of their March 17-18 meeting.
• "Some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two-sided description of the (Federal Open Market) Committee's future interest rate decisions in the post-meeting statement, reflecting the possibility that upwards adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation were to remain at above-target levels," the minutes said, referring to support for language in ​the Fed's policy statement that would suggest the Fed might either cut or raise rates in the future.
• The Fed has been cutting rates since 2024, and ​its statement was designed to lean towards more reductions in the future, language that was ultimately maintained at the March meeting. Still, the March ⁠minutes reflect a larger group open to potential hikes than at the January meeting, when only "several" officials were willing to open the door to tighter monetary policy.
• Following the Feb. ​28 outbreak of war, "many participants pointed to the risk of inflation remaining elevated for longer than expected amid a persistent increase in oil prices," while others cited concerns about rising ​inflation expectations and risks that higher headline inflation would raise underlying inflation trends as well. Should the higher energy prices persist, "higher input costs would be more likely to pass through to core inflation," the minutes said.
• The Fed ⁠in March held its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 50%-3.75% rangeas it weighed how Middle East-driven oil spikes and AI adoption might fuel "persistent" inflation while simultaneously threatening economic growth and employment. The minutes were released on Wednesday, a day after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. News of the cease fire caused oil pricesto drop more than 15% to around $92 a barrel.

(Source: Reuters)