• On an annual basis, inflation in The Bahamas remained elevated up to February 2026, with consumer prices rising 2.7% compared to February 2025. Month over month (between January and February), inflation increased by 0.95%, driven primarily by increases in housing, utility and transportation costs, according to data from the Bahamas National Statistical Institute’s (BNSI) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February 2026.
• The increase marked a reversal from the slight decline recorded at the start of the year, and signals continued upward pressure on household expenses. “The monthly inflation rate in The Bahamas increased by 0.95% in February 2026 compared to January 2026, reflecting changes in the average prices of goods and services purchased by consumers during the period. This follows a decrease of 0.1% recorded between December 2025 and January 2026.
• The CPI, which measures changes in the prices consumers pay for goods and services, showed the largest month-over-month increases occurred in the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category, which rose 2.7%. Transportation costs increased by 0.6%, while health-related expenses climbed 0.5% during the month.
• The BNSI revealed that restaurants and hotels recorded the largest annual increase at 17.1%, reflecting continued price pressures in sectors closely tied to tourism and hospitality activity. It also reported that the furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance category increased by 8.5% year-over-year, while housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels rose 5.1%.
• In contrast, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics declined by 5.1%, compared to February 2025.
• This latest inflation data comes as policymakers continue to monitor cost-of-living pressures facing Bahamian households in the midst of the war in the Middle East and other geopolitical tensions.

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)

• U.S. job openings increased by the most in five years in April, but the surge likely overstates the labour market's health, as hiring declined against the backdrop of economic uncertainty stemming from the Iran war. The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Labour Department on Tuesday also showed resignations dropped to the lowest level in nearly six years in April, a sign of a lack of confidence in the jobs market.
• The professional and business services industry accounted for roughly 91% of the jump in job openings in April. Economists said the labour market had not shifted from its “slow-hire, slow-fire” mode, warning of downside risks from the three-month U.S.-backed war with Iran, which has caused shortages and boosted the prices of commodities, including energy products and aluminium.
• Job openings, a measure of labour demand, surged by 731,000 to 7.618 million by the last day of April, the highest level since May 2024, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 6.88 million unfilled jobs. Professional and business services openings jumped by 668,000, which some economists said was an anomaly, while health care and social assistance added 89,000 positions. Job openings in the finance sector decreased by 134,000. The job openings rate jumped to 4.6% from 4.2% in March.
• Hires dropped 419,000 to 5.116 million in April, suggesting the solid increase in nonfarm payrolls that month was mostly due to lower layoffs. The nearly broad-based decline was led by a decrease of 131,000 in professional and business services, with retail trade hires falling by 81,000. The hiring rate fell to 3.2% from 3.5% in March. The U.S. employment report for May, due Friday, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 85,000 jobs after two months of gains in excess of 100,000, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%.
• With hiring weak, fewer workers are job-hopping. Resignations in April dropped by 183,000 to 2.977 million, the lowest level since August 2020, and the quits rate slipped to 1.9% from 2.0% in March. The lower quits rate suggests wage inflation is not an issue for the Federal Reserve as it confronts rising price pressures due to the Middle East conflict. Financial markets expect the central bank will keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range into 2027.
• Though employers are not boosting headcount, they are not engaging in mass layoffs, anchoring the labour market. Layoffs and discharges dropped by 192,000 to 1.692 million in April, with fewer layoffs in professional and business services, retail trade and construction, though they increased in accommodation and food services. The layoff rate fell to 1.1% from 1.2% in the prior month.

(Source: Reuters)

• Euro zone inflation accelerated further last month, driven by energy and services, bolstering the already strong case for a small European Central Bank interest rate hike later this month, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday.
• Consumer prices in the 21 nations sharing the euro accelerated to 3.2% in May from 3.0% a month earlier, well above the ECB's 2% target but in line with a Reuters poll. The increase was driven by a 10.9% rise in energy costs and an unexpectedly large pickup in services inflation to 3.5% from 3.0%. In a development likely to worry policymakers, underlying inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, accelerated more than expected to 2.5% from 2.2% on services and a small pickup in industrial goods inflation.
• “The further increase in headline and particularly services inflation in May reinforces the case for the ECB to raise interest rates next week and suggests that upside risks to underlying inflation may be higher than we had anticipated,” Andrew Kenningham at Capital Economics said.
• While the figures are closely watched by the ECB, they are unlikely to shift near-term policy expectations, as policymakers have already made clear that higher inflation justifies an increase in borrowing costs. Financial markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike on June 11, with one or two more expected in the autumn. Elevated energy prices risk seeping into the broader economy and triggering more persistent inflation pressures.
• Still, any tightening is expected to be modest — far less aggressive than the record series of rate hikes in 2022. Weaker underlying growth limits firms' ability to pass on higher costs. Indicators from PMI surveys to the ECB's own data point to growing pressure on the real economy, and further downgrades to already subdued growth forecasts look likely as the Iran war drags on and high energy prices weigh. Europe is a net energy importer and its industrial sector, already hit by the loss of cheap Russian gas following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and by higher U.S. tariffs, is reeling.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the three months ended March 31, 2026 (Q2 FY2026), Eppley Caribbean Property Fund Limited, SCC – Value Fund (CPFV) reported net profits of Bd$1.47Mn, a 14.0% increase relative to March 2025. The improvement was driven by higher investment income.
• Buoyed by both property-level performance and contributions from associated investments, CPFV recorded robust revenue growth. Total investment income rose 15.2% to Bd$3.16Mn, on the back of solid net rental income (+17.9%), driven by higher occupancy and contractual rental increases. CPFV’s topline was also propelled by the Fund’s share of profit from equity-accounted investments, which grew 9.6% for the quarter.
• Operating expenses (Opex) grew at a slower pace than revenue, supporting margin expansion during the quarter. Higher fund management, investment advisory, and professional fees, reflecting the continued growth of the Fund’s asset base, resulted in Opex rising by 10.3% to Bd$1.57Mn, primarily driven by. However, a Bd$33,302 recovery in receivables, coupled with lower interest and office and administrative expenses, partially offset these increases.
• As a result, profit before tax rose 20.6% to Bd$1.59Mn, with margins increasing to 50.4% in Q2 FY2026 from 48.2% in Q2 FY2025, demonstrating the Fund’s ability to translate revenue growth into stronger earnings despite modest cost pressures.
• Notably, CPFV’s Funds from Operations (FFO), which measures its core operating profitability factoring in financing costs, totalled Bds$1.57 for Q2 FY2026. When added to the Bds$1.29Mn FFO for Q1 FY2026, its 6-month FFO totalled Bds$2.86Mn (+22%).
• As a key measure of recurring earnings, the stronger FFO performance underscores the Fund’s enhanced capacity to generate sustainable cash flows for shareholders. In line with its policy of distributing between 75% and 100% of FFO attributable to shareholders, the Board approved a dividend of Bd$677,587.96, equivalent to 0.50 cents per share (JMD equivalent $0.3923), payable on June 30, 2026. Based on the current distribution relative to the prevailing share price, this represents a dividend payout of approximately 3.53%, highlighting a steady income return for shareholders alongside the Fund’s ongoing focus on maintaining sustainable and recurring cash flow distributions.
• With occupancy trends remaining favourable and contractual rental increases continuing to support revenue growth, CPFV appears well positioned to deliver steady cash flow generation and shareholder returns over the remainder of FY2026.
• CPFV’s share price was J$42.50 at the close of trading yesterday, June 1, 2026, a 9.1% decrease year-to-date. The stock currently trades at a P/B of 0.53x, which is in line with the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 0.53x. Based on the company's reported NAV per share of BDS$1.01 (approximately J$101), the stock is trading at a discount of roughly 58% to its underlying net asset value. This means that investors purchasing shares today are effectively acquiring exposure to the fund's real estate portfolio at a substantial discount to the value of the underlying assets.
• The discount is not unique to CPFV and reflects a broader trend among listed real estate and property investment companies across many markets. Such discounts, however, can arise from several factors, including limited trading liquidity, concerns about the valuation and realizability of underlying property assets, higher interest rates that reduce the attractiveness of real estate investments, and investor preference for more liquid asset classes.

(Sources: Company Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Despite the severe impact of Hurricane Melissa (October 2025), research firm Fitch BMI has revised Jamaica’s GDP forecast upwards. It now expects the economy to contract by 1.5% in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 2.3%.
• Data for the final quarter of 2025 shows a stark reversal in economic growth following Hurricane Melissa. However, the contraction was less severe than expected. For the first three quarters of 2025, the Jamaican economy mounted an encouraging recovery, following Hurricane Beryl, which caused extensive damage in July 2024, despite not making landfall. Broad-based sectoral gains were evident, with especially strong Q3 performances for Mining (4.0%), Agriculture (21%), Manufacturing (9%), and Accommodation (7%).
• Hurricane Melissa wiped out those advances, causing an estimated US$12Bn in damage (57% of GDP) and by far the costliest hurricane in Jamaica's history. In Q4 2025, mining contracted by 37.5%, agriculture fell nearly 18%, and accommodations dropped by 31.0%. Almost every sector except financial and insurance activities and public administration contracted dramatically. As a result, Jamaica's economy shrank by 7.1% in Q4 2025 alone, a sharp reversal from the 5.1% growth rate recorded in Q3, leaving GDP growth nearly flat for 2025 as a whole.
• While the contraction seen in Q4 2025 was significant, there are signs of resilience. The economic outcome was less severe than initially expected, despite the substantial damage suffered. Both the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) had projected a Q4 contraction in the range of 9-13%, and BMI’s own projections were broadly aligned, based on Jamaica's economic performance following previous storms and the relative strength of Hurricane Melissa.
• The economy fared better than expected, largely due to consumption proving surprisingly resilient, as did recovery efforts. Retail and wholesale trade declined by only 2.2% in Q4, helping to sustain the economy through the worst of the storm's aftermath. Several key factors underpinned this resilience: remittances remained strong (+8.4% in Q4); inflation was more contained than anticipated; and the labour market held up well - a notable outcome for a hurricane-battered economy.
• Nevertheless, quarterly contractions are expected to continue through Q3 2026, given the severity of the damage and strong base-period growth in early 2025, with expected weakness in tourism and bauxite mining weighing on performance. However, growth should turn positive in Q4 2026, supported by robust recovery efforts and favourable base effects.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD), in its monetary policy meeting of May 2026, decided to keep its reference interest rate unchanged at 5.25% per annum. It also kept the permanent liquidity expansion facility (1-day Repos) at 5.75% and the remunerated deposit rate (Overnight) at 4.50%.
• The decision was based on the gradual recovery of the Dominican economy and the fact that recent inflationary pressures are a response to the supply shock caused by higher international oil prices. The agency emphasised that medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored to the target of 4.0% ± 1.0%.
• Nationally, year-on-year inflation reached 5.11% in April, impacted by fuel price adjustments, although core inflation remained within the target range at 4.87%. The Government has implemented partial fuel subsidies and social assistance programs to mitigate the impact of energy prices.
• The Central Bank of the Dominican Republic’s forecasting system projects that inflation will return to the target range in the fourth quarter of 2026, as the effects of the oil shock dissipate. Meanwhile, the economy is showing signs of dynamism: the monthly economic activity indicator (IMAE) grew 4.0% in January-April, driven by construction, free trade zones, and tourism.
• The peso has appreciated by 8.0% as of the end of May, and international reserves have reached US$15.9Bn, equivalent to six months of imports, exceeding the IMF’s recommended metrics.
• The Central Bank reaffirmed that the economy has solid fundamentals and a stable financial system. It reiterated its commitment to act promptly to meet the inflation target and preserve macroeconomic stability in an international environment marked by the crisis in the Middle East.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The fallout from the Iran war is splitting global manufacturing, squeezing European factories with soaring costs and weak demand even as U.S. and Asian producers ramp up output to stockpile against further supply-chain disruption.
• The economic shock from the Iran war hit European factories last month, suppressing demand for their goods and pushing up raw material costs at the fastest rate in four years, while U.S. and Asian peers saw activity expand due to stockpiling with global supply chains under strain from the conflict, surveys showed on Monday. The U.S.-Israeli-led conflict, which began in late February, has upended trade, rattled financial markets and raised concerns over global energy and commodity supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.
• S&P Global's Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.6 in May from April's near four-year high of 52.2, though ahead of a preliminary estimate of 51.4 (a reading above 50.0 indicates growth). Germany's manufacturing sector stalled while French factories contracted for the first time since November. British factories raised their prices at the fastest rate since June 2022 in response to a sharp increase in costs.
• S. factory output hit its highest level in four years, likely driven by businesses front-loading orders amid rising prices and shortages. The ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 in May, the highest reading since May 2022, from 52.7 in April, with new orders at a four-month high and supplier delivery times at their longest in four years.
• In Asia, China's private-sector RatingDog1 General Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in May from 52.2 but beat forecasts, even as an official survey showed factory activity stalling. Japan's PMI came in at 54.5, and South Korea's rose to 54.8, its highest since March 2021, while Vietnam (52.8), Taiwan (56.1) and the Philippines (50.8) all expanded, underscoring a region-wide push to build buffers against conflict-led disruptions.
• Taken together, the surveys point to building inflationary pressure worldwide, as war-driven energy and raw material costs feed through supply chains into the prices manufacturers charge. The European Central Bank is expected to keep raising rates this year to stop higher energy prices seeping into core inflation, with euro area inflation seen pushing further above its 2% target, and British, Japanese and other producers all reporting some of their steepest input-cost increases in years, a sign that central banks may face renewed difficulty bringing inflation back to target while the conflict persists.

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¹RatingDog is an independent private-sector financial data and research provider in China, best known for publishing closely watched monthly Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys.

(Source: Reuters and NCBCM Research)

• Iranian negotiators will stop exchanging messages with the U.S. through intermediaries, and Tehran will move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for ongoing ceasefire violations, Iran’s state-affiliated news outlet Tasnim said Monday.
• The report, in a translated post on the social media site Telegram, homed in on Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah. “No dialogue will take place” until Israel fully withdraws from occupied areas in Lebanon and stops all attacks in both Lebanon and Gaza, per Tasnim. “Also, the resistance front and Iran have resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, in order to punish the Zionists and their supporters,” the report said. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a trade chokepoint that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
• In response to this news, oil prices leapt more than 7% higher following Tasnim’s report, which signalled a breakdown in efforts to reach a diplomatic end to the war that is now in its fourth month. President Donald Trump just three days earlier said he would decide at a meeting in the White House Situation Room whether to agree to a deal with Iran that would at least pause the conflict, but that meeting ended without Trump making a final decision. In the following days, the U.S. and Iran launched new attacks against each other, further eroding the tattered ceasefire that has already been repeatedly ruptured by military operations.
• At the same time, Israel has ramped up its military offensive in Lebanon, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday ordering attacks on Hezbollah-controlled suburbs in Beirut, Reuters reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an X post Monday morning that “the ceasefire between Iran and the US is unequivocally a ceasefire on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” adding that its violation on one front is a violation on all fronts and that the U.S. and Israel are responsible for the consequences of any violation. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Tasnim’s report, and U.S. Central Command declined to comment.
• Iran’s vow to escalate its clampdown on the Hormuz Strait indicates that oil exports from the Persian Gulf are unlikely to increase anytime soon. Exports through the strait have plunged from prewar levels due to Iran’s blockade.
• Barrel prices for Brent and WTI crude oil, while still highly elevated from their pre-war levels, had retreated by double-digit percentages in recent weeks as investors grew optimistic about the prospect of a deal that would fully reopen the strait, but some of that optimism appears to have evaporated following Monday’s developments.
• Ship traffic through the strait remains effectively choked off, as it has been since the start of the war, with only a trickle of vessels transiting the waterway compared with the more than 100 ships that passed through each day before the war, and Iran’s efforts to exert control have raised concerns that Tehran could impose a tolling system on passing ships.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica’s trade deficit narrowed in January 2026 by US$55.1Mn to US$458.4, as a broad-based contraction in imports outweighed the fall-off in exports. Despite this improvement, the export-to-import coverage declined marginally to 20.0% to (from 20.7% in 2025), meaning Jamaica earned only US$0.20 for every US$1.00 spent on imports.
• Jamaica’s total spending on imports for January 2026 was valued at US$573.1Mn, representing an 11.5% decline when compared to the US$647.6Mn recorded in January 2025. The decrease was mainly driven by lower imports of Raw Materials/Intermediate Goods (-12.3%), Consumer Goods (-10.9%), and Fuels and Lubricants (-30.7%).
• Earnings from total exports for January 2026 were valued at US$114.8Mn, representing a 14.4% decline compared to the US$134.1Mn earned in January 2025. This was driven by a 34.9% fall in the value of Crude Materials (Excl. Fuels).
• Jamaica’s top five trading partners in January 2026 were the United States, China, Brazil, Japan and Trinidad and Tobago. Combined imports from these countries totalled approximately US$379.00Mn, representing a 0.3% increase compared to the US$378.00Mn in 2025.
• On the export side, Jamaica’s main markets were the United States, the Russian Federation, Trinidad & Tobago, the Cayman Islands, and Singapore. Total earnings from these countries fell by 3.1% to US$94.2Mn in January.
• Ultimately, a narrowing trade deficit means fewer US dollars are leaving the country to finance imports relative to the foreign exchange earned from merchandise exports. This helps to ease depreciation pressures on the Jamaican Dollar (JMD). However, despite the modest improvement in January, largely driven by lower oil imports, the trade deficit is expected to widen in the coming months. The anticipated deterioration reflects rising import costs stemming from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have pushed global oil prices higher and are likely to increase the value of imports within the Fuels and Lubricants division.
• While declining remittances and tourism worsen this gap, for the fiscal outlook, a stronger JMD can decrease the local currency cost of servicing Jamaica’s US-dollar-denominated sovereign debt.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the Mining & Quarrying industry for April 2026 increased by 0.6%. Similarly, there was a 2.6% increase in the index for the Manufacturing industry. This suggests that the average price of finished goods leaving local factories rose in April, before hitting retail shelves or factoring in distribution markups.
• The increase in the Mining & Quarrying industry was mainly due to a 0.7% rise in the index for the major group, ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. In the Manufacturing industry, the upward movement was primarily influenced by increases in the index for the major groups: Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (0.2%) and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (11.7%).
• That said, for the period April 2025 – April 2026, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 7.1%. The decrease was largely attributed to a 7.5 per cent fall in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. Despite an increase in the monthly index in this division, the index was down due to record exports from Guinea, the world’s largest exporter of bauxite
• Over the same period, the point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 8.2%, driven mainly by upward movements in the index for the major groups ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (3.1%) and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (30.4%).
• Looking ahead, movements in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are expected to remain heavily influenced by trends in the Mining & Quarrying Index, despite higher energy prices placing upward pressure on the Manufacturing Index. In particular, the projected bauxite and alumina surplus in Guinea during 2026 could continue to weigh on prices amid softer demand conditions and China’s strict 45 million-ton production cap on primary aluminium output. However, recent export restrictions implemented by the Guinean government could help to moderate some of the downward pressure on prices.
• That said, the Manufacturing index may continue to experience upward pressure, with the crude price remaining elevated as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Furthermore, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which accounts for 70% of local power generation, has seen prices climb by 143% since the onset of the conflict. The resulting increase in energy costs is likely to feed directly into manufacturing expenses through higher production costs, with further volatility expected.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)