• Consumer confidence fell 2.3% in the second quarter of 2026, reversing part of the previous quarter's gains, while business confidence increased 2.3% after a 6.5% decline in the first quarter, according to the Market Research Services (MRS) Business and Consumer Confidence Survey.
• MRS Chairman Don Anderson said households are becoming more cautious due to weaker economic conditions, including the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa, a reported 4% contraction in the economy compared with the same period in 2025, higher fuel prices linked to conflict in the Middle East, and ongoing inflationary pressures.
• Although business confidence improved slightly, it remains below pre-Hurricane Melissa levels. Anderson noted that businesses continue to view it as a reasonable time to invest and expand, reflecting a more stable long-term outlook despite current economic challenges.
• Anderson explained that the decline in consumer confidence is typical after a general election, as the optimism driven by campaign promises fades and consumers adopt a more realistic assessment of economic conditions. The survey also highlighted growing concerns over declining remittances and rising energy costs, both of which are affecting household finances.
• Overall, the data suggests consumers are becoming more cautious about spending as economic uncertainty persists, while businesses are showing greater confidence in future recovery. Consequently, consumer spending may remain subdued in the near term, even as businesses position themselves for longer-term growth.

(Sources: Jamaica Gleaner & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Jamaica (GO) has announced an aggregate J$25.0Bn benchmark bond offering through the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) to support financing for the 2026/27 Budget. The auction opens on Friday, July 24, with bids accepted between 9:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m., while settlement is scheduled for Tuesday, July 28, 2026.
• The offering comprises three fixed-rate benchmark investment notes across the medium- and long-term yield curve: J$16.0Bn through the reopening of the 9.625% Benchmark Investment Note due November 21, 2031; J$5.0Bn through the issuance of a new 7.50% Benchmark Investment Note due February 28, 2035; and J$4.0Bn through the reopening of the 8.25% Benchmark Investment Note due March 18, 2040.
• The 2031 note carries a 9.625% fixed coupon, matures on November 21, 2031, and will make its first interest payment on November 23, 2026, with semi-annual coupon payments thereafter on May 23 and November 23. The 2035 note offers a 7.50% fixed coupon and matures on February 28, 2035, with the first coupon payable on August 28, 2026, followed by semi-annual payments on February 28 and August 28. Meanwhile, the 2040 note pays a fixed coupon of 8.25%, matures on March 18, 2040, and will make its first interest payment on September 18, 2026, before reverting to semi-annual payments every March 18 and September 18.
• All three securities are available with a minimum investment of J$1,000, with pricing and yields determined through competitive bidding. Non-competitive allocations have been capped at J$800Mn for the 2031 note, J$250Mn for the 2035 note, and J$200Mn for the 2040 note.  The notes are taxable, registered and transferable, and will be held electronically through the JamClear-CSD at the Bank of Jamaica. They will not qualify as regulatory liquid assets, and payments due on non-business days will be made on the next business day.
• The Government's increased presence in domestic capital market in recent months reflects the increased financing requirements arising from the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Melissa and the associated disruption to tax and other revenues. The suspension of the fiscal rule that followed, temporarily halted the debt reduction framework aimed at lowering the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% and has provided the Government with greater flexibility to increase borrowing to finance reconstruction efforts and to close the funding gap.
• Recent data from the Ministry of Finance and the Public Service (MOFPS) indicate that Jamaica's fiscal position has softened in the early months of FY2026/27, as the economic effects of Hurricane Melissa continue to weigh on revenue inflows. The Central Government recorded a fiscal deficit of J$19.72Bn during the April–May period, significantly exceeding the budgeted deficit of J$11.46Bn. Against this backdrop, the aggregate J$25.0Bn benchmark bond offerings across the three tenors form part of the Government's broader financing strategy to meet its budgetary requirements while supporting ongoing recovery and reconstruction efforts.

(Source: Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• Suriname plans to use workforce and industry data to shape a local content strategy that prepares citizens and businesses for opportunities from the country’s expanding offshore oil sector.
• Oil, Gas and Environment Minister Patrick Brunings said local participation must be grounded in a clear understanding of the skills, services and workforce numbers required by energy projects, with that data guiding education and training adjustments.
• The strategy comes as Suriname prepares for GranMorgu, its first offshore oil development. TotalEnergies and APA Corporation approved the Block 58 project in October 2024, with investment estimated at around US$10.5Bn and first oil targeted for 2028.
• The project will develop the Sapakara and Krabdagu fields, located about 150 kilometres offshore, using a floating production, storage and offloading vessel with capacity of 220,000 barrels per day.
• Brunings said the government’s priorities include building national capability, strengthening institutions, planning infrastructure, improving safety and environmental management, and ensuring petroleum development supports wider economic value rather than creating an isolated enclave economy.

(Source: OilNOW)

• British inflation cooled by more than expected in June as a brief de-escalation in the Iran war reduced fuel prices. Consumer prices rose by 2.6% year over year, the weakest increase since March 2025 and down from 2.8% in May, compared with economists’ expectations for a smaller decline to 2.7%.
• Motor fuel prices fell month over month for the first time since the US-Iran war began in late February, while manufacturers’ input costs declined by 2.0% from May. Britain’s headline inflation rate was also lower than the 3.5% recorded in the United States and the euro zone’s 2.8%.
• However, the conflict in the Gulf has reignited this month, pushing up energy costs, and analysts said the June inflation reading was likely to prove the low point for the year. The Bank of England (BoE), which has a 2% inflation target, expects inflation to rise to 3% in the third quarter.
• Food prices were 1.6% higher than a year earlier, easing from a 2.1% increase in May. Since taking office on Monday, July 20, 2026, Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government has announced a cut in tax on energy bills and a lower cap on bus fares as it seeks to ease living costs.
• Underlying price pressures remained relatively muted, with services inflation slowing to 3.6% in June from 3.7% in May, however, this was slightly above economists’ forecast of 3.5%. Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, held at 2.6%.
• Investors expect the BoE to keep its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% next week as it continues to assess the impact of the Middle East conflict. Financial markets continue to price in one or possibly two 25-basis-point interest rate increases by the end of 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• Japan’s imports jumped to a record high in June as a weak yen and soaring oil prices drove up import costs and inflation, leaving the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a policy bind. The value of imports surged 25.4% year over year to ¥11.3Tn ($69.25Bn), exceeding forecasts for a 21% increase and marking the fastest growth since November 2022.
• Crude oil was the main driver of the increase. Although import volumes fell 13.7% from a year earlier, the value of crude oil purchases soared 59.3%, with the yen-denominated unit cost climbing to a record high. Japan also increased purchases from the United States and Russia as declines in imports from the Middle East moderated.
• The swelling import bill has become a growing concern for policymakers, with the yen’s weakness amplifying inflationary pressures even as officials seek to safeguard a fragile economic recovery. The BOJ is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week but maintain its tightening bias as higher energy costs and a weak currency continue to fuel inflation risks.
• Exports increased 19.3% year over year in June, exceeding forecasts for an 18.6% gain and accelerating from 16.8% in May. Growth was supported by the weak yen and strong demand linked to AI-related data centres, while exports to the United States rose 13% on solid demand for fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles.
• Despite strong export growth, Japan recorded a larger-than-expected trade deficit of ¥406.9Bn ($2.49Bn), compared with forecasts for a ¥120Bn deficit. Renewed hostilities between Iran and the US have also raised concerns that prolonged instability could weigh on global economic activity and increase the risk of a broader slowdown.

(Source: Reuters)

• Corporate activity has seen a notable uptick since July 17, with several listed companies announcing upcoming Board meetings to consider dividends, alongside notable insider share transactions, executive leadership changes, and shareholder notices for upcoming annual general meetings (AGMs) within major financial institutions.
• Three major listed entities, GraceKennedy (GK), Future Energy Source Company (FESCO), and the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), have scheduled Board meetings between July 27 and July 29, 2026, to consider interim dividend declarations for shareholders.
• This would mark GK’s third dividend declaration since the start of the year, while FESCO would be declaring only its second dividend since 2025. Investor sentiment has remained supportive, with GK's share price appreciating 6.1% year-to-date to $75.85, while FESCO has rallied 24.2% to $3.59. Based on current market prices, the stocks offer trailing dividend yields of approximately 3.2% and 0.8%, respectively.
• Beyond dividend-related news, insider buying was recorded for PURITY, with a Director increasing holdings by 7,741 units across two transactions completed on July 7 and July 15, 2026. Separately, a significant insider transaction involving 4,525,015 ordinary shares (0.88% of total outstanding shares) was executed on June 11, 2026, with an aggregate value of $9,050,030.00.
• At the board level, Barita Investments (BIL) announced that Mr James Godfrey resigned from its Board after opting not to seek re-election at the company's 48th Annual General Meeting on July 9, 2026. He also stepped down from the board of subsidiary Barita Unit Trusts Management Company (BUTM).
• Meanwhile, corporate governance remained in focus as MPC Clean Energy issued a notice for its hybrid AGM on August 11, 2026. In addition to voting on routine governance matters, director re-elections, and the re-appointment of EY Barbados as auditors, shareholders will be asked to approve the proposed sale of the company’s entire equity interest in its subsidiary, San Isidro Fotovoltaica, S.A. de C.V. San Isidro Fotovoltaica, S.A. de C.V. is a special purpose vehicle (SPV) in El Salvador, that owns and operates the San Isidro Solar Park, a utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) power plant with a generation capacity of 6.4 MWp to 6.5 MWp.
• Overall, the recent announcements highlight a broad mix of shareholder, governance, and strategic developments that are likely to shape investor attention in the weeks ahead as May/June quarter earnings and dividend season gather pace.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Hon. Fayval Williams, has announced that the Public Procurement Commission (PPC) will release by the end of July, the list of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) selected under the Government’s 20 per cent Set-Aside Programme. She made the announcement during the Small Business Association of Jamaica (SBAJ) Growth and Resilience Conference, held at The Jamaica Pegasus hotel in New Kingston on Thursday (July 16).
• The 20 per cent Set-Aside Programme is designed to increase the participation of small businesses in the Government’s procurement process and provide them with the support needed to take advantage of available opportunities. The Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance, is also expected to disseminate the Guidance Notes to procuring entities by the end of August 2026.
• The Guidance Notes “is an official document issued to ministries, departments, and agencies to explain specific procedures. In this instance, it will be the procedures to activate the procurement set aside on behalf of the small businesses all across Jamaica”. Mrs. Williams noted that the allocation is essential for Jamaica’s small-business sector, which remains a critical contributor to national development through the creation of employment opportunities.
• She also highlighted the resilience of the sector despite the various challenges that have affected Jamaica over the years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, hurricanes and global economic disruptions. Nevertheless, the Minister envisions significant growth for the sector over the next decade. The one-day conference, held under the theme ‘Rebuilding the MSME   Sector: A National Imperative for 2026 and Beyond’, brought together stakeholders and partners to advance discussions and drive actionable solutions aimed at strengthening Jamaica’s small-business sector, which accounts for more than 80 per cent of employment in Jamaica.

(Sources: JIS)

• Brazil’s ethanol and sugar producers have criticised the US government’s decision to impose new 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods, arguing that the move marks a setback in trade cooperation between the two countries.
• According to Brazil’s sugarcane and bioenergy industry group UNICA, the US was Brazil’s second-largest foreign market for ethanol in 2025 after South Korea, accounting for 253Mn litres of exports valued at US$163.0Mn.
• The US also accounted for 420,000 metric tons of sugar exports from Brazil in 2025, well below the 1.12Mn tons shipped in 2024. UNICA said Brazilian sugar exports continue to face US tariffs and market-access restrictions, while Brazil maintains a non-discriminatory policy toward ethanol.
• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer justified the tariffs by citing unfair trade practices and Brazil’s ethanol market access, claims rejected by Brazil. Industry groups said the decline in Brazilian imports of US ethanol reflects rising domestic corn ethanol production rather than a breach of trade rules, while NovaBio argued that Washington is seeking greater ethanol access without offering concessions on Brazilian sugar imports.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Costa Rican Central Bank (BCCR) left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 3.25% at its latest meeting on May 21, in line with Fitch BMI expectations. The decision reflected external risks, especially uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict and its potential economic effects.
• Costa Rica’s inflation rate remained negative at -0.32% in June 2026, although month-on-month price changes were positive in three of the first six months of the year. The June reading was the highest monthly increase since December 2024, largely influenced by higher domestic fuel prices following the start of the US-Iran conflict.
• With the next policy meeting scheduled for July 23, BMI Analyst expects the BCCR to remain cautious and keep the policy rate unchanged. Ongoing tensions around Iran and reduced transit through the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to volatility in international oil prices, while the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady in June is also expected to influence the BCCR’s policy stance.
• A 25 basis point cut is expected at the Central Bank’s final policy meeting of the year on November 26, which would take the policy rate to 3.0% by year-end. Despite the near-term rise in headline inflation, inflation expectations remain below 2.0% over both the 12-month and 24-month horizons, below the BCCR’s 3.0% target.
• The main upside risks to BMI’s inflation and policy-rate outlook would come from a prolonged period of high fuel prices, particularly if tensions in the Middle East persist under BMI’s “messy negotiations” framework.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Oil prices climbed about 2% on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, to a five-week high amid concerns that energy supply disruptions in the Middle East could worsen following renewed attacks between the US and Iran and a threatened naval blockade of Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthis.
• Brent futures rose US$2.12, or 2.4%, to US$91.34 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased US$1.80, or 2.2%, to US$85.03. Brent was on track for its highest close since June 10, while WTI was headed for its highest close since June 11.
• Two oil tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia reversed course in the Red Sea following threats from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis. The development came as US forces bombed targets in southern and western Iran overnight, Tehran targeted US sites in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, and at least one tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The conflict has expanded beyond the Gulf, increasing the threat to global energy supplies and trade following the Houthis’ announcement of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday. Although Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu continued to operate normally, two tankers carrying Saudi crude to China and India made U-turns and headed towards the Suez Canal.
• The latest US attacks could represent a final attempt to strengthen Washington’s negotiating position before a compromise is reached and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. However, the risk remains of a more prolonged stalemate characterised by uncertain energy flows, elevated oil prices and recurring attacks.

(Source: Reuters)