• The European Commission has proposed new ​rules for public tenders that would create an EU-wide platform to improve access and slash paperwork for companies and give ‌EU governments the option to exclude bids based on EU content criteria. Wednesday's proposal is the latest in a series of Commission measures to improve the Single Market, security and supply chain resilience, and prevent industrial decline following warnings by former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi and former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta.
• Public buying accounts ​for around 15% of the European Union's gross domestic product, or about €2.5 trillion ($2.91 trillion) in 2025, making it a powerful tool ​for tackling intense international competition and supply chain vulnerability. But critics, including Draghi and Letta, say that the bloc ⁠has not used procurement to harness its collective strength.
• Companies bidding for tenders complain they face a myriad of hard-to-navigate templates, languages and duplications ​across the bloc's 27 jurisdictions, from federal to regional. The new rules will simplify the tender process and make it harder for authorities to ​award contracts largely based on cost to counter, for example, cheap goods offered by Chinese companies that may be subsidised.
• Procurement ‌is also ⁠a central part of the European Innovation Act, another initiative to promote EU competitiveness proposed on Wednesday. It is designed to provide sufficient demand for innovations to come to market by increased investment, including from public bodies. The new regulation would replace the EU's three existing public procurement directives, reducing national discretion in how the rules are applied. The rules will cover all sectors except defence.

 (Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) for August 2026 highlighted a sharp increase in trading activity, although stronger market participation did not translate into broad-based price gains. The JSE Main Index edged down 0.15% to 373,456.26, although it remained firmly ahead of its December and August 2025 levels, up 17.44% year-to-date (YTD) and 16.39% year-on-year (YoY). Market capitalisation similarly slipped 0.15% to J$2.01Tn.
• Despite the Main Market’s broadly flat performance during the month, market breadth was slightly negative, with 27 stocks declining compared with 24 that advanced. Palace Amusement (+63.89%), Eppley (+15.19%) and JMMB Group (+12.74%) were among the strongest performers. Meanwhile, Sygnus Real Estate Finance (-19.98%), Innovative Energy (-14.42%) and MPC Caribbean Clean Energy (-13.97%) recorded the steepest declines.
• Investor activity nevertheless accelerated sharply, providing a notable bright spot for market liquidity. Main Market transactions rose to 38,662, up 15.55% from July and 126.62% from August 2025, while trading volume more than doubled (162.62%) month-on-month to 1.08Bn shares. Trading value also jumped to J$13.03Bn, more than three times July’s J$4.42Bn and over five times the value recorded in August 2025.
• YTD performance on the Main Market has been concentrated among a relatively small group of stocks, with some of the strongest performers also ranking among the market’s larger companies by market capitalisation. West Indies Petroleum Terminal has been the standout performer, surging 600.0%, followed by TransJamaican Highway (+140.78%), Carreras (+82.16%) and NCB Financial Group (+74.56%). Other notable advancers include Lasco Manufacturing (+37.67%) and General Accident (+34.35%). On the other hand, MPC (-46.91%), Palace (-39.80%), Proven Group (-39.24%) and First Rock Real Estate (-36.86%) have recorded the steepest declines. With only 21 advancers versus 32 decliners, the Main Market’s 17.44% YTD gain reflects significant dispersion in individual-stock performance, rather than a broad-based increase across listed stocks.
• The Junior Market provided a more positive price signal, posting a monthly gain, although the 0.82% increase in the Index was relatively small compared with the segment’s broader YTD decline. The Index rose 0.82% to 3,001.17, supported by gains in 25 stocks versus 21 decliners. Spur Tree Spices (+50.54%), One Great Studio (+46.15%) and IronRock Insurance (+34.50%) led the monthly advance, while Derrimon Trading (-20.51%), Woodcats International (-16.67%) and FosRich (-15.38%) were among the biggest laggards. Trading activity also strengthened, with August’s transactions increasing 11.12% from July and 58.97% YoY, while trading value rose 53.4% YoY to J$583.19Mn, suggesting greater investor participation.
• The Junior Market’s weakness was more evident on a YTD basis, with only 11 advancers versus 36 decliners. Jetcon Corporation has been the standout performer, surging 151.33%, followed by MFS Capital Partners (+41.03%), Dolla Financial Services (+25.91%), Spur Tree Spices (+23.89%) and Caribbean Cream (+20.57%). Future Energy Source (+20.07%) and Image Plus Consultants (+15.00%) also recorded notable gains. In contrast, Kintyre Holdings (-77.63%), Main Event Entertainment (-48.70%), FosRich (-46.99%), Derrimon Trading (-42.24%) and Edufocal (-39.29%) have been among the steepest decliners. The breadth of declines reflects the more challenging environment facing smaller-cap equities, with the Junior Market Index still 11.77% below its December 2025 level despite the August increase.
• The strongest momentum came from the USD Equities Market, suggesting growing investor interest in U.S dollar-denominated listings. However, the sharp increase in trading activity does not necessarily point to a broad-based increase in investor participation or demand for U.S. Dollar- denominated stocks, given the market’s relatively thin liquidity. Nevertheless, the USD Equities Index jumped 7.56% in August to 321.15 as market capitalisation increased to US$1.50Bn, bringing its YTD gain to 51.37% and its one-year gain to 53.79%. August USD Equities transactions surged 164.16% YoY. TransJamaican Highway (+11.81%) and Sygnus Credit Investments (+14.56%) were among stocks seeing significant appreciation.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Soaring airfares are threatening the traditional Christmas travel season for Jamaicans overseas, with reduced airline capacity driving sharp increases on key United States (U.S.) - Jamaica routes. Return fares between Montego Bay and Miami have reportedly reached as high as US$3,744, while JetBlue services to Fort Lauderdale have been repeatedly sold out.
• The collapse of Spirit Airlines has intensified concerns about competition and affordability, particularly on routes connecting Jamaica with Florida. Although Spirit accounted for a relatively small share of total airlift, its departure removed an important low-cost competitor, allowing remaining airlines to capture displaced demand at higher fares.
• The higher cost of travel comes amid a significant contraction in Jamaica’s tourism arrivals, with the island recording 2.34Mn visitors and US$2.5Bn in tourism earnings through August, down 17% and 18%, respectively, year-on-year. U.S. visitor arrivals, Jamaica’s largest source market, were reportedly down 27.9%.
• However, the weakness in Jamaica’s tourism performance is not attributable to higher travel costs alone. Comparable Caribbean destinations have continued to record growth despite higher global travel costs: The Bahamas reported a 17.5% increase in total visitor arrivals in Q1 2026, including a 5.2% rise in air arrivals, while the Dominican Republic recorded a 7.0% increase in total visitors through July, with air arrivals rising 10.8% in the first five months.
• This suggests that Jamaica’s sharper decline could be more closely associated with destination-specific constraints, particularly hotel-room availability following Hurricane Melissa, although elevated fares may be adding to the pressure on demand. Of note, Hurricane Melissa continues to constrain the sector’s capacity, with only around 70% of Jamaica’s hotel room inventory currently available. The Government has attributed the weakness in tourism to a combination of hurricane-related room closures, reduced airline capacity, the loss of Spirit and broader global cost pressures.
• Restoring airlift and hotel capacity ahead of the winter season will therefore be critical to tourism recovery, as elevated fares risk discouraging both diaspora visits and broader visitor demand. Against this background, the Government is pursuing new direct routes, diversification of tourism markets and accelerated hotel-room restoration, with significant capacity expected to return between late 2026 and the first quarter of 2027 (Q1 2027).

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly and NCBCM)

• President Irfaan Ali held talks with Qatar’s Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad Sherida Al Kaabi, as Guyana and Qatar explore potential areas of cooperation in the energy sector. The meeting formed part of broader efforts to strengthen bilateral ties between the two countries.
• The potential collaboration comes as Guyana seeks to expand its energy sector beyond offshore crude production and strengthen its position as a regional energy supplier. Qatar is one of the world’s major energy producers, with significant experience in oil and natural gas, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG).
• Energy cooperation forms part of President Ali’s State Visit to Qatar, which has also focused on opportunities to deepen investment and broader economic ties. On September 8, 2026, Ali and Qatar’s Amir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, held official talks focused particularly on investment.
• The potential partnership remains exploratory at this stage, with no specific energy projects, agreements or proposed investments announced. However, the meetings have brought energy and investment into sharper focus as Guyana seeks additional international capital to support its rapidly expanding economy.
• The discussions come as Guyana’s importance to global energy supply continues to grow. None members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers, including Guyana, the US and Canada, are expected to increase production by a combined 1.4Mn barrels per day in 2026, partly offsetting reduced Middle Eastern supply. Collaboration with Qatar could therefore complement Guyana’s expanding oil sector as the country explores opportunities to broaden its energy industry.

(Source: Newsroom)

• The Bahamas’ national debt increased by $1.071Bn, or 8.8%, year-over-year to $13.17Bn at the end of June 2026, according to the Central Bank of The Bahamas’ Q2 2026 Economic Review. The increase reflected nearly $700Mn in additional direct government debt and a $373.5Mn rise in contingent liabilities.
• The Government’s direct debt stood at $12.47Bn, up $697Mn, or 5.9%, year-over-year, despite declining slightly during Q2. Meanwhile, contingent liabilities increased to $703.4Mn, partly reflecting government-guaranteed borrowing related to the Grand Bahama Power Company acquisition, LNG energy reforms and the Public Hospitals Authority.
• As a share of GDP, direct government debt declined by 0.2 percentage points year-over-year to 70.7% at end-June. However, the national debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 74.7% from 72.8% in Q2 2025, while total public sector debt rose to 77.3% of GDP.
• The increase in debt comes despite a comparatively smaller $121.2Mn fiscal deficit at end-April 2026 and the Government's projection, as late as end-June, of a $32.7Mn Budget surplus for FY2025/26. The divergence has raised questions over the relationship between reported fiscal balances and the increase in government borrowing.
• The Fiscal Responsibility Council also raised concerns about deviations from the Government’s FY2025/26 Annual Borrowing Plan and the transparency of its financing disclosures. Notably, Central Bank advances increased by $290.3Mn during the nine months to end-March 2026, despite this source of financing not being included in the borrowing plan. The Council called for explanations where material deviations occur and greater consistency in reporting actual financing against planned borrowing.
• The increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio despite a decline in the direct government debt ratio highlights the growing impact of contingent liabilities on the wider public debt position. With government guarantees linked partly to energy and public-sector initiatives, the extent to which these obligations ultimately require government support will remain important for The Bahamas’ fiscal and debt trajectory.

(Source: The Tribune)

• Brent crude futures breached $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since late July, as Iran and the U.S. hit tankers in the ​biggest wave of attacks on shipping since the war began, threatening to worsen the ongoing impairment of energy supplies from the Middle East.
• Front-month Brent crude futures were up $3.40, or 3.5%, at $101.32 a ‌barrel after touching a high of $101.55. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $3.45, or 3.7%, at $96.48 a barrel, highest since early June.
• Since late May, oil benchmarks have generally traded well below the $100-per-barrel psychological threshold, reflecting expectations that the conflict would remain on a low simmer. Optimism rose in particular after the U.S. and Iran came to a temporary agreementto cease attacks, even though a permanent peace deal had not been reached. That calculus has been shifting of late with the resumption of strikes. Iran ​said on Wednesday it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers, in a sharp escalationof the six-month-old war.
• Futures prices are moving closer to physical crude and fuel markets, where the reality of tight supply has been apparent for the bulk of the conflict. Since the Iran war began on February 28, Brent has surged as high as $126.41 a barrel, a peak reached on April 30 but had only briefly touched $100 a barrel in late July after retreating below that threshold in late May.
• Higher oil prices have also translated into higher bond yields and borrowing costs for the U.S. government and for consumers by extension. On Tuesday, two-year Treasury yields, which are among the most sensitive to potential inflation, hit their highest level since November 2024. The 10-year Treasury yield, which heavily influences consumer borrowing rates, rose to 4.812%, which was just short of its highest level since November 2023.
• Traders are now pricing in about a 60% chance of an interest rate hike at the Fed's September 15 to 16 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, up from about 50% before the jobs data. Stocks were less affected by oil prices than bonds were. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 closed down 0.58%, while the Nasdaq Composite ended the day lower by about 0.3%.

(Source: Reuters)

• Canada's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods took effect after midnight on Tuesday, intensifying an 18-month-old trade war ​and spurring Prime Minister Mark Carney to urge a further shift away from the country's biggest trading partner.
• The Canadian levies follow 50% tariffs the United States ‌imposed on some $20 billion of Canadian goods last month, after several rounds of negotiations collapsed. The breakdown has widened a rift between the longtime allies, both of whom have blamed the other for the failed talks.
• Ottawa designed the retaliatory measures to put economic and political pressure on Washington, Canadian government officials said, and the tariffs ​are expected to hit sectors in some competitive states such as Michigan and Ohio, ahead of U.S. midterm elections in November.
• Gabriel Brunet, spokesperson for ⁠Dominic LeBlanc, Canadian minister responsible for bilateral U.S. trade, said: "Canadian and American officials have maintained ongoing discussions on a range of issues, although formal trade negotiations are not taking place at this stage."
• Ottawa's counter-tariffs cover some $20 billion of U.S. goods, with duties ranging from 15% to 50% across products from steel and furniture to clothing and electronics.
• While the new tariffs affect a small amount of ​exports compared with total trade between the U.S. and Canada, some analysts worry the standoff could destabilise the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the free-trade pact that succeeded NAFTA. Together, they have underpinned commerce across North America for decades.

 (Source: Reuters)

• BMI now expects Jamaica’s economy to contract by 0.9% in 2026, better than its previous forecast of a 1.1% decline, before rebounding by 2.3% in 2027 as recovery from Hurricane Melissa continues.
• Real GDP fell 4.1% year over year in Q1 2026 amid broad-based sectoral weakness, following a 7.1% contraction in Q4 2025 after the hurricane’s October landfall. The contraction was less severe than BMI and official forecasts had anticipated, supporting the upward revision. Seasonally adjusted data also showed Q1 2026 growth improving relative to Q4 2025, signalling early recovery momentum. Consumption remained comparatively resilient. Wholesale and retail trade were nearly flat, with sequential improvement from the previous quarter and inflation still relatively contained – despite supply-side disruptions.
• BMI expects growth to resume in Q4 2026 and continue into 2027, supported by a broad-based recovery across industries. Fiscal stimulus should provide an additional tailwind, while the Bank of Jamaica is expected to gradually lower interest rates in 2027 as inflationary pressures fade.
• BMI remains moderately upbeat on domestic demand despite near-term inflation pressure. Remittances should continue to support household spending, even as inflows normalise from post-hurricane levels. A stable labour market, including nearly 30,000 jobs added in Q2, together with fiscal stimulus and steady monetary policy, should help limit the depth of the downturn.
• The newly established National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority should help mobilise private investment and public projects. In addition, the restoration of power to nearly the entire island is an important recovery milestone, while the marginal rise in electricity consumption in July 2026 points to improving activity.
• Risks remain tilted to the downside despite the less severe-than-expected contraction. Renewed tensions between Iran and the U.S. have pushed oil prices higher, raising the risk of stronger domestic inflation and potentially tighter monetary policy. Ongoing hurricane recovery also leaves the economy vulnerable to another major storm, while El Niño-related drought and hotter temperatures could weigh on agriculture and overall output in the near term.

• Jamaica’s foreign policy remains anchored by its longstanding relationship with the United States, even as the government continues to broaden ties with China, regional partners and other international counterparts.
• Deep economic links with the U.S. span tourism, remittances and trade, while security cooperation has strengthened following the August 2026 signing of a Status of Forces Agreement. The agreement establishes the legal framework for U.S. military personnel and activities in Jamaica. It reinforces the countries’ longstanding security partnership and signals closer cooperation on defence and regional security.
• In a January 2026 call, Prime Minister Andrew Holness and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed their commitment to sustained cooperation. Discussions covered hurricane recovery assistance, U.S. support for reconstruction, Jamaica’s progress in reducing crime, the country’s role in anti-gang operations in Haiti and the upgrade of the U.S. travel advisory from Level 3 to Level 2 – a positive development for Jamaica’s storm-affected tourism sector.
• At the same time, China remains an important infrastructure and trade partner. Chinese investment continues to support Jamaica’s infrastructure ambitions, while rising imports of machinery and other capital goods point to a deeper trade relationship. This balancing act extends beyond the two major powers, with the Holness administration also strengthening ties across the Caribbean and with other global partners.
• Jamaica has also entered regional agreements designed to improve security cooperation and economic integration. These include the Alliance for Security, Justice and Development, an Inter-American Development Bank-backed initiative involving 18 Latin American markets to strengthen cooperation against transnational crime. In July 2025, Jamaica also signed an agreement with Barbados, Belize, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and Dominica to permit the free movement of Caribbean nationals under the CARICOM Single Market and Economy.
• Overall, Jamaica’s approach points to continuity rather than a major foreign-policy shift. The country is likely to preserve its close U.S. relationship while continuing to welcome Chinese investment and deepen regional partnerships, giving it more room to pursue economic opportunities across multiple fronts.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Bahamian economy maintained positive momentum in Q2 2026, supported by stronger tourism activity and ongoing construction-related investment.
• According to the Central Bank of The Bahamas’ (CBOB) Quarterly Economic Review, growth was led by a rebound in high-value stopover arrivals and continued expansion in cruise tourism.
• Tourism sector output maintained healthy gains during the quarter. In the private vacation rental market, total room nights sold increased by 7.7% to 170,989, with bookings for hotel-comparable listings rising 12.5% to 66,155 and entire-place listings increasing 5.0% to 104,834.
• Performance indicators also strengthened, with the average occupancy rate for hotel-comparable listings increasing by 2.9 percentage points to 51.8%, while occupancy for entire-place listings moved higher by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6%. Average daily rates rose 6.8% to US$760.39 for entire-place listings and 1.7% to US$175.68 for hotel-comparable listings.
• According to data from Nassau Airport Development Company Limited, quarterly total departures, net of domestic passengers, rose by 5.4% year-over-year to 0.5Mn. Non-US international traffic expanded by 24.5%, while US departures, which accounted for 83.9% of total passengers, grew by 2.4%.
• Small- to medium-scale foreign investment projects also supported construction activity through residential, resort and private cruise destination developments. Broader economic indicators remained aligned with medium- to long-term trends.
• Meanwhile, the latest labour market data for Q4 2025 showed that the unemployment rate decreased relative to both the previous quarter and Q4 2024. However, inflationary pressures increased, reflecting the pass-through effects of higher global oil prices on imported fuel and other goods and services.
• The Bahamas’ positive growth momentum appears to have extended into Q3, with the CBOB’s July 2026 data showing that tourism output growth strengthened. Total departures from Nassau, net of domestic traffic, increased by 7.1% year-over-year, while vacation-rental room nights sold rose 10.5%. However, the CBOB continues to flag geopolitical pressures and higher imported fuel costs as headwinds to the outlook.

(Sources: The Nassau Guardian & Central Bank of The Bahamas)