• In Trinidad & Tobago (T&T), macroeconomic stability was maintained in 2025, supported by continued strength in the energy sector and a notable expansion in non-energy activity, according to economist Dr Vaalmikki Arjoon.
• Arjoon highlighted that the energy sector grew by 2.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by increased gas production from the Cypre and Mento fields. "However, the most striking development was recorded in the non-energy manufacturing sector, which expanded by 12.0% over the same period," he said.
• The sector has also demonstrated longer-term resilience, growing by more than 50.0% since the immediate pre-Covid period (Q3 2019), despite ongoing challenges in the private sector, including global supply chain disruptions affecting raw material imports, foreign exchange constraints, and port-related inefficiencies.
• "The food processing industry in the manufacturing sector appears to be the strongest performer, growing by 16% in the first three quarters. Further, 2025 also points to an increase in consumer spending, with point-of-sale purchases increasing by 8.1%," he said.
• In the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (October to December 2025), the economy recorded a modest fiscal surplus of $100 million. "Brent crude is currently hovering around US$105, while the LNG benchmarks used to calculate our gas price, like JKM, Dutch TTF and UK NBP, are all ranging between US$15 and US$20 per mmbtu.
• Indeed, these prices are much higher than the oil and gas prices the budget was predicated on, US$73.25 per barrel and a gas price of $4.25 per mmbtu. This, therefore, strengthens energy revenues for the State, improves export earnings and foreign exchange, and widens our overall fiscal space," said Arjoon. He added that these higher prices, especially if prolonged, could also narrow the overall fiscal deficit projected for the year, or may even produce a small surplus by September 2026.
• "It also means that some portion of the revenues is likely to have been deposited into the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund. Naturally, higher earnings from the energy sector might also cause, at the very least, the ratings outlook to improve from negative to stable, or even to positive," he said.
• Arjoon said while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 2.95% in 2027, he argued that stronger-than-expected energy revenues could allow T&T to outperform these forecasts. Additionally, improved fiscal space could support higher capital expenditure without increased reliance on borrowing.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• The Bank of England (BoE) will hold borrowing costs at 3.75% this year, a Reuters poll of economists found, though over a third expect at least one ​rate hike as the Iran war fuels an energy price surge that drove up inflation forecasts. Financial markets ‌are more certain, pricing in two rises this year. The BoE said after its meeting last month that the worst-case fallout from the war could lead to "forceful" rate increases, though less damaging outcomes may not require any
• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted last month that investors should not necessarily expect hikes. ​But at the April meeting, BoE chief economist Huw Pill broke with other Monetary Policy Committee members and ​voted for a rise. "We continue to expect the BoE to remain on hold this year ⁠as financial conditions have tightened and the labour market continues to loosen," analysts at Goldman Sachs said. "That said, we see ​a low hurdle for the BoE to deliver a couple of hikes during the summer if energy price pressures continue ​to build."
• The outlook has become more politically and economically fraught following a bruising local election for Prime Minister Keir Starmer that prompted calls for his resignation. Investors are increasingly uneasy about Britain’s fiscal footing, just as elevated gilt yields and energy risks tighten financial conditions.
• Still, several respondents said ​elevated gilt yields and tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Bank’s work, reducing the need for ​a more aggressive tightening cycle despite mounting inflation risks. The May 11-13 poll's steady outlook comes even as inflation jumped to 3.3% in March and ‌is ⁠expected to peak at 3.6% in the fourth quarter - almost double the central bank's 2.0% target.
• Nearly 40% of the 56 economists surveyed expected at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, up from 23% in the April poll and a sharp shift from earlier this year when nearly all said the next move would be lower. Seven predicted at least one reduction ​in the latest poll. "We are adjusting ​our assumptions for the ⁠impact of the Middle East conflict on the UK economy. Of the three scenarios we set out in March – the good, the bad and the ugly – we are moving our ​base case from the good to the bad," said Elizabeth Martins, senior economist at HSBC. Martins ​now sees two ⁠25 basis point increases this year compared to none predicted in April.
• Last month, policymakers abandoned a single central forecast and instead laid out multiple scenarios, signalling growing uncertainty over how inflation and the broader economy would evolve. Weak growth forecasts were largely left unchanged, with the economy expected to grow 0.8% this year and 1.2% next.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Senate on Wednesday approved Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve, ​putting the 56-year-old lawyer and financier at the helm as the U.S. central bank grapples with intensifying inflation that may make it hard to push through the interest-rate cuts that President Donald ‌Trump has demanded.
• The vote was 54-45 in the most-partisan-ever U.S. Senate confirmation of a Fed chair. A single Democrat, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, voted with the Republican majority. His swearing-in to the four-year Fed chair term and a concurrent 14-year term as a Fed governor, approved by the Senate on Tuesday, awaits final White House signatures on paperwork sent by the Senate.
• Warsh will take the leadership baton from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends on Friday but who will ​remain a Fed governor. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, currently the central bank's biggest advocate of rate cuts, will vacate his spot on the board to make room for Warsh.
• Expected to be in place to ​chair the Fed's next meeting, June 16 to 17, Warsh joins a central bank whose policymakers are engaged in a debate over the possibility of rate hikes that Trump picked Warsh ⁠to avoid. In the run-up to his first meeting, Warsh may have to navigate a divided group of policymakers with growing support for more hawkish language, indicating that a rate increase is as likely as a rate cut in the coming months. At least five of the Fed's 19 policymakers have said they wanted that change as of April.
• Also in June, Fed policymakers are scheduled to release fresh rate-path forecasts. March's projections for a ​single rate cut this year look increasingly stale as the unemployment rate hovers around 4.3%, indicating the labour market may not need the support of a rate cut. March's projections for a ​single rate cut this year look increasingly stale as the unemployment rate hovers around 4.3%, indicating the labour market may not need the support of a rate cut.
• However, inflation has continued to gain steam. A government report on Tuesday showed consumer prices rose in April at the fastest pace in three years. Financial markets now expect no change to the Fed's 3.5%-3.75% policy rate target this year, with a rate hike as soon as January.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the first quarter ending March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), toll operator TransJamaican Highway Limited (TJH) delivered another stellar quarter of earnings growth (+46.0%), supported by higher toll collections, continued traffic growth and the contribution from the newly integrated May Pen to Williamsfield (1C) leg.
• Revenues increased 29.0% to US$29.03Mn, driven by the Phase 1C leg, which contributed US$3.5Mn, or roughly 12% of total revenue, alongside sustained growth in traffic volumes, increased electronic toll (T-tag) adoption and improved operational throughput. However, other gains and losses, which mainly comprise gains from financial market operations and investment instruments, declined to US$0.19Mn (-77.9%), on account of higher foreign exchange losses.
• Operating expenses rose 20.0% to US$6.55Mn, reflecting higher amortisation, maintenance, insurance and bank charges. Administrative expenses also increased (+11.9%) due to higher staff costs and ongoing investment in organisational development initiatives, which aligned with its long-term growth strategy.
• Despite higher indirect costs, revenue growth significantly outpaced cost increases, resulting in improved profitability during the quarter. Operating profits climbed 28.9% to US$19.88Mn, while operating margins remained steady at 68.5%.
• Lower finance costs (-7.4%), supported by scheduled debt repayments and the redemptions of its 8/0% preference shares, of which 20% has been redeemed as at January 2026, also aided performance. Ultimately, TJH reported net profit of US$13.23Mn, with margins of 45.6% from 40.3% in Q1 2025.
• Looking ahead, TJH is expected to continue benefiting from the integration of the 1C leg, with the two toll plazas projected to contribute approximately US$10Mn in additional annual revenue as traffic volumes continue to build out along the corridor. However, persistently higher fuel prices could temper commuter activity and traffic growth, particularly for discretionary travelling.
• TJH’s ordinary share price closed trading at J$6.90 on May 12, reflecting a 49.7% year-to-date increase. Despite the appreciation in TJH’s share price year to date, its P/E ratio is 14.40x, which is below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 21.20x due to its strong earnings growth momentum.

(Sources: TJH Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Reflecting the absence of fair value and property disposal gains recorded in Q1 2025, Kingston Properties Limited (KPREIT) reported earnings of US$658,957 for the three months ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), down 34.2% from the prior year.  
• That said, underlying operating performance strengthened during the quarter, with rental income increasing 31.7% to US$1.82Mn. Growth was driven by continued portfolio expansion and stronger contributions from the United Kingdom segment (+165%), alongside stable performance across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Management fees also rose 26.7% over the quarter.
• Funds From Operations (FFO) rose 23.6% to US$0.64Mn, reflecting stronger cash earnings from the company’s underlying property portfolio. This improvement is a key indicator of KPREIT’s ability to generate sustainable distributable income, driven by a larger base of recurring rental flows.
• Operating expenses increased modestly by 4.1% to US$607,581, significantly lagging revenue growth. This controlled cost expansion led to improved operations as measured by operating activities before other income, with margins expanding from 60.3% to 69.0%, underscoring the scalability and efficiency of the Group’s income-producing property portfolio.
• Nevertheless, higher net finance costs and the absence of non-recurring gains weighed on reported earnings. Operating profits declined modestly by 1.4% as the prior year included US$371,908 in fair value gains and US$96,639 in gains on disposal of investment properties. Additionally, a tax charge (US$25,520) in the current quarter, compared to a tax credit in Q1 2025, also pressured its bottom-line.
• KPREIT intends to pursue selective high-yielding acquisition opportunities in the U.K. market while advancing local development projects and prioritising growth in FFO through disciplined capital allocation and portfolio expansion. This will likely drive up earnings once operating expenses remain contained. The company also appears poised for an additional public offering (APO) following its August 2025 resolution to increase authorised share capital to an unlimited number of shares. The capital raise would strengthen liquidity, support future acquisitions and accelerate KPREIT’s push toward its US$100Mn asset target.
• KPREIT share price was J$12.50 at the close of trading yesterday, reflecting a 33.0% increase year-to-date. The stock currently trades at a P/E of 18.18x, which is above the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 7.35x.

(Sources: KPREIT Financials & NCBCM Research)

• On May 12, 2026, S&P revised Mexico's long-term sovereign credit rating outlook to "negative" from "stable," signaling a risk of very slow fiscal consolidation due to weak economic growth, which could lead to a faster-than-expected buildup in government debt and a higher interest burden. The "BBB" long-term foreign currency and "BBB+" long-term local currency sovereign credit ratings were affirmed.
• Mexico's low per capita economic growth remains a primary rating constraint, with the report projecting GDP growth to be only 1% in 2026, a slowdown from 3.1% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024. This soft economic activity, combined with rigid spending, erodes fiscal flexibility and pushes up debt.
• S&P expects Mexico's general government deficit to reach 4.8% of GDP in 2026, attributed to a weak economy and government efforts to stabilize fuel prices through forgone taxes. The report forecasts a very gradual fiscal consolidation, with the deficit averaging 4.2% of GDP for the forecast period.
• Net general government debt is forecast to rise to approximately 54% of GDP by 2029, a significant increase from 49% in 2025. Interest payments are expected to average over 15% of government revenues during the forecast period.
• Continued and substantial fiscal support for the state-owned energy producer Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the power utility Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) is expected to further strain public finances and aggravate fiscal rigidities.
• The report assumes that all of Pemex's debt amortizations will be financed by central government transfers and views the likelihood of extraordinary government support for both entities as "almost certain."
• While trade ties with the United States are expected to remain strong, uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) weakens investment sentiment.

(Source: S&P Global Credit Ratings)

• Roberts Manufacturing Co. Limited, the 80‑year‑old Barbadian manufacturer of margarines, shortening, edible oils and animal feeds with distribution across 15 Caribbean markets, has confirmed the successful close of the initial phase of its public share offer.
• The outcome of the offer reflects broad and high‑quality participation from across the Barbadian and regional financial landscape.
• Subscriptions were received from more than 1,600 retail investors, including employees of Roberts Manufacturing, as well as statutory pension and social insurance funds, defined‑benefit and defined‑contribution pension funds, mutual fund managers, the credit union sector, insurance companies and other regulated financial institutions. Corporate investors also participated.
• The offer attracted material interest beyond Barbados, including a leading Eastern Caribbean fund manager, signalling early cross‑border institutional confidence in the company as a regional issuer.
• The company said the breadth of participation underscores the confidence of Barbadian savers, fiduciaries and institutions in a company that has manufactured locally, employed Barbadians and exported from Barbados for eight decades. It also reflects the main objective of the offer, placing direct equity ownership of a profitable and established Barbadian company into the hands of citizens from across society.
• The successful close of Roberts Manufacturing’s public share offer represents a potentially historic turning point for Barbados’ capital markets. It came amid what market participants have described as a prolonged drought in private-sector IPO activity on the Barbados Stock Exchange (BSE), with few major listings since 2017. The transaction also aligns closely with the BSE’s broader strategic objectives of deepening local capital markets, increasing retail participation, improving regional liquidity, and revitalising market activity through initiatives such as the IGM200 programme^[1].
• The strong cross-section of participation from retail investors, pension funds, and regional institutional investors may also serve as an important “proof of concept” for future private-sector listings under Barbados’ wider BERT 2026^[2] growth and capital market development agenda.

(Sources: Barbados Today and NCBCM Research)

^[1] The IGM200 (Innovation & Growth Market 200) is a national initiative in Barbados to support 200 small and medium enterprises (SMEs) through training, mentoring, and helping them access equity financing via the Barbados Stock Exchange’s Innovation & Growth Market (IGM).

^[2] The Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan 2026 (BERT 2026) is the government's third-phase economic strategy, launched in early 2026 to transition from stabilization (2018–2021) and growth (2022–2025) toward long-term structural transformation.

• U.S. consumer inflation increased further in April, with the annual rate posting its largest gain in three years, stoking political risks for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party ahead of ​November's midterm elections. The back-to-back rises in the Consumer Price Index reported by the Labour Department on Tuesday reflected strong gains in energy costs amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. ‌Food prices surged last month, and inflation also spilt over to the services sector, with higher rental costs and airfares.
• Trump won re-election in 2024 in large part because he promised to reduce inflation, but Americans have soured on his handling of the economy, and many blame him for the pain at the pump. Rising inflation outpaced wage gains for the first time in three years and underscored the financial strain on households.
• With no end in sight to the conflict, economists warned prices would continue to push higher and broaden in ​the months ahead. Trump on Monday proposed reducing the 18.4-cent federal gasoline tax to lower prices at the pump.
• The CPI increased 0.6% last month after surging 0.9% in March, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast ​the CPI rising 0.6%. Estimates ranged from a 0.4% gain to a 0.9% increase. The moderation after posting the largest increase since June 2022 was mechanical. Oil prices shot above $100 a barrel in March following strikes against Iran, before pulling back ​to still-high levels after a ceasefire in early April.
• While the conflict's impact was immediately reflected in more expensive gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, economists said the second-round effects were around the corner, including for goods trucked by road. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are straining supply chains. A 3.8% increase in energy prices accounted for more than 40% of the rise in the CPI last month. That followed a 10.9% jump in March. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% after a record 21.2% surge in March. Meanwhile, Food prices accelerated 0.5% after being unchanged in March.
• The strong inflation readings added to the data last week, showing a larger-than-anticipated increase in nonfarm payrolls in April, strengthening economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged into 2027. The U.S. central bank, which tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index for its 2% inflation target, last month left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. President Donald Trump will arrive in Beijing this week for a summit with President Xi Jinping on May 14 to 15, where U.S. officials say a deal for Beijing to buy more U.S. ​energy could be under consideration. Tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war have halted most Chinese imports of U.S. ‌oil and LNG, which were worth $8.4 billion in 2024, the year before Trump began his second term.
• China's imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) have tended to swing with geopolitical events, creating an opening should ties improve. During ​the trade war in 2019, during Trump's first term, Chinese imports of U.S. LNG fell to just 260,000 metric ​tons despite China's overall imports of the superchilled fuel rising 15% to 59.4 million tons that ⁠
• Two years and a trade deal later, the U.S. exported 8.98 million tons of LNG to China, becoming its third-largest LNG ​supplier of the year, narrowly behind the second-largest, Qatar.
• By 2024, that had fallen to 4.15 million tons and then dropped to ​26,000 tons in 2025 after China imposed a total tariff of 25% on U.S. LNG in the tit-for-tat trade war.
• Falling imports obscure purchases by Chinese buyers such as PetroChina and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) to honour long-term contracts with U.S. producers signed between 2021 and 2023. The cargoes are being resold to ​Europe to avoid paying tariffs at home. Rystad Energy estimates around 12 million tons are contracted for delivery this year.
• Analysts ​estimate U.S. LNG would be cheaper than Asian spot cargoes if Beijing removed its 25% tariff, given the market disruptions triggered by the Iran ‌war. However, ⁠any increase in imports would likely be limited, as China is expected to see another year of sluggish LNG demand.
• For context, Chinese imports of U.S. oil peaked at about 395,000 barrels per day in 2020 after the Phase 1 trade deal, accounting for just less than 4% of China’s ​total crude imports. In 2024, before Trump ​returned to office, China ⁠imported 193,000 bpd, worth $6 billion. China has not imported any U.S. oil since May 2025 due to a 20% import tariff imposed during the trade war, offsetting that with higher shipments from countries ​such as Canada and Brazil.

(Source: Reuters)

• Wisynco Group Limited (WISYNCO) reported weaker earnings as continued revenue expansion was offset by higher operating and financing costs for the third quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q3 2026). Net profits fell sharply to $646.19Mn, marking a 33.5% decline relative to Q3 2025.
• Despite the temporary closure of many hotels and restaurants following the passage of Hurricane Melissa, Q3 revenues increased by 12.6% to $15.45Bn. This improvement was supported by continued demand across the company’s beverage and consumer goods portfolio, alongside strong momentum in its export business. Export revenues expanded by 34.7% as Wisynco continued to deepen its presence across regional and international markets. Nevertheless, quarterly revenues came in below management’s initial expectations, reflecting the disruption to tourism-related demand.
• Cost pressures remained elevated with cost of sales rising 14.6% to $10.57Bn. Despite this, growth profits remained solid, increasing by 8.4% to $4.89Bn. However, the faster pace of growth in direct costs contributed to a narrowing of gross profit margins to 31.6% from 32.8% in Q3 2025. The decline primarily reflects the lower absorption of greater fixed costs related to production, especially in the month of February.
• Profitability was further pressured by rising operating expenses. Selling, distribution and administrative expenses continued to trend upward, driven by higher staff costs, marketing expenses and operating expenses related to investments in new brands and product innovation. These costs were likely associated with the company’s recently launched brewery line, which commenced production in Q1 2026.
• Finance costs also increased significantly (+628.33%) due to additional debt undertaken to optimise the company’s capital structure. The sharp rise in financing expenses further weighed on earnings, contributing to net profit margins falling materially to 4.2% from 7.1%.
• Despite weaker performances in both Q1 and Q3, Wisynco’s net profit for the nine months ended March 31, 2026, rose modestly (4.3%) to $3.31Bn underpinned by continued topline expansion and resilient consumer demand across key segments of the business.
• Capital investments, aimed at expanding production capacity and strengthening distribution capabilities, and export volumes are expected to continue to support earnings. Nevertheless, the company will likely face challenges associated with higher distribution and freight costs given current geopolitical tensions, which could put a strain on overall profitability.
• WISYNCO’s stock price closed at J$20.23 yesterday, reflecting an 8.6% year-to-date increase. At this price, its P/E ratio is 16.7x, which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing sector average of 15.3x.

(Sources: Wisynco Financials & NCBCM Research)