• The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the first quarter, but consumer spending almost stalled. Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an upwardly revised 2.1% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's ​Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its third estimate of first-quarter GDP on Thursday. Growth ‌was previously reported to have advanced at a 1.6% pace. Economists polled by Reuters had expected that GDP growth would be unrevised at a 1.6% rate.
• Growth in consumer spending was slashed to a ​0.5% rate from the previously reported 1.4% pace, reflecting downward revisions to outlays on services, including financial services and ​insurance as well as international travel. Part of the downward revisions to financial services was related to a stock market selloff last quarter.
• Looking ahead, spending appears to have picked up early in the second quarter, thanks to large tax refunds, which have partially ​mitigated a surge in gasoline prices stemming from the U.S.-led war with Iran. The average tax refund ​for the week ending May 8 was $3,276 compared to $2,939 during the week ending May 9, 2025, the last available data ‌from the ⁠IRS showed.
• Final sales to private domestic purchasers, which ​exclude government, trade and inventories, ​increased at a 1.7% ⁠rate. That was a downgrade from the previously estimated 2.4% growth pace. Profits from current production rose at a $74.4 billion rate last quarter, revised higher from the previously ​reported $40.4 billion pace. They surged at a $246.9 billion pace in the fourth quarter

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. inflation increased further in May, breaking above 4.0% for the first time in three years as the Middle East conflict boosted energy prices, keeping an interest rate ​increase from the Federal Reserve this year on the table. The personal consumption expenditures price index surged 4.1% in the 12 months through May, the largest increase and first reading above 4.0% since April 2023, the Commerce Department's Bureau ⁠of Economic Analysis said.
• But with oil prices falling to pre-war levels on Thursday after the United States and Iran signed a preliminary peace deal, inflation likely peaked last month or is ‌close to doing so. An easing in gasoline prices is anticipated. The impact on inflation could, however, be offset by rising prices for technology goods like semiconductors and electronics amid an artificial intelligence investment boom.
• Fertilizer shortages because of the conflict were expected to raise food prices, economists said. Service prices, which increased strongly last month, were unlikely to abate quickly.
• The PCE price index climbed 0.4% over the month after rising by the same margin in April. The increase in PCE inflation was in line with economists' expectations. Goods ​prices increased 0.4% after rising 0.7% in April. Prices of gasoline and other energy goods shot up 6.5%, while food edged up 0.1%.
• The price of services jumped 0.5% after rising 0.3% in April. They were lifted by a 0.8% advance in ​the cost of transportation services as higher jet fuel prices boosted airfares. The cost of financial services and insurance increased 1.2%, reflecting a stock market rally. There were also strong rises in the costs of healthcare and other services.
• Excluding the volatile food ​and energy components, the PCE price index increased 3.4% year-on-year in May. That was the biggest gain since October 2023 and followed a 3.3% rise in April. The so-called core PCE inflation advanced 0.3% over the month for the third month in a row. The Fed tracks the PCE ‌inflation measures for ⁠its 2% target. The Fed last week kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Results from the Bank of Jamaica's (BOJ’s) May 2026 Survey of Businesses’ Inflation Expectations point to continued caution among businesses as they navigate the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa, geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Iran-US conflict, and a domestic monetary policy environment that has remained unchanged since the BOJ's February 2026 rate cut.
• Consistent with this cautious outlook, the share of respondents who expect the Central Bank to keep rates on hold over the next three months rose to 48.4%, up from 47.6% in April, while 25.5% of respondents expect rates to be marginally higher, up from 24.3%.
• Business sentiment weakened during the survey period, with the Present Business Conditions Index declining to 60.1 from 69.2 in the previous survey. The deterioration reflected an increase in the proportion of respondents who viewed current business conditions as "worse" than they were a year ago, suggesting that some sectors continue to face challenges stemming from post-hurricane recovery efforts and broader economic uncertainty.
• Expectations for future business activity also softened, as the Future Business Conditions Index fell to 113.4 from 114.6 previously. Although respondents still anticipate an improvement in conditions over the next year, the lower reading suggests reduced optimism regarding the pace of economic recovery and business expansion.
• Businesses also continue to anticipate rising inventory-related expenses. Stock replacement led expectations for operating cost increases, with 32.8% of respondents identifying it as the input most likely to experience the largest price increase over the next 12 months. This suggests that businesses remain concerned about inventory replenishment costs and supply-side constraints, potentially reflecting disruptions to global trade and shipping routes arising from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz during the survey period.
• Utility costs and fuel & transport expenses were also identified as major sources of future cost increases. Notably, the proportion of respondents expecting the largest increase to come from fuel and transport rose to 24.2% in May from 18.3% in April, suggesting a growing concern about global fuel and oil prices. The increase likely reflected expectations of rising domestic energy costs after Petrojam's decision in April to pass higher international oil prices onto consumers, which would affect transportation expenses.
• Finally, wage pressures showed signs of re-emerging, with 8.0% of respondents identifying wages and salaries as the input expected to increase at a higher rate over the next 12 months. The increase points to higher labour cost expectations as businesses gradually rebuild capacity and adjust to evolving economic conditions.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Debate surrounding a formal relationship between Jamaica and its diaspora resurfaced at the recently concluded annual Jamaica Diaspora Conference in Montego Bay, highlighting longstanding political divisions over the extent to which overseas Jamaicans should participate in national governance and decision-making.
• Opposition Leader Mark Golding, in his address at the opening session of the conference, proposed that members of the diaspora be allowed to serve on public boards in Jamaica, arguing that many possess specialised skills, international experience, and professional expertise that could strengthen public institutions and support national development.
• The Jamaican diaspora, estimated at more than three million people and larger than the island's resident population, remains a significant contributor to the economy through remittances, business investments, support for schools and churches, and expertise in areas such as medicine, finance, technology, education, and law.
• While supporters contend that government boards, commissions, and advisory bodies could benefit from diaspora knowledge and global networks, critics argue that many overseas Jamaicans do not experience the day-to-day effects of government policies and may be less familiar with Jamaica's current social and economic realities.
• As such, a potential middle-ground solution could involve expanding diaspora participation through advisory councils, government boards, formal consultation mechanisms, and merit-based appointments to the Senate, allowing overseas Jamaicans to contribute expertise and advice while preserving political accountability for those who reside in Jamaica.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) has announced plans to invest US$10Bn by 2031 to support projects aimed at strengthening regional integration across Latin America and the Caribbean.
• The funding will be directed toward key sectors, including physical and digital infrastructure, intra-regional trade, food security, energy, tourism, innovation, logistics, and mobility, to improve connectivity, reduce development disparities, and enhance the region’s competitiveness.
• According to CAF, the initiative forms part of its commitment to regional integration as a catalyst for sustainable development, economic growth, and resilience. It is also intended to create new opportunities for businesses and citizens across the region.
• The announcement followed discussions at the International Forum on Regional Integration in Cartagena, Colombia, where government officials, multilateral organisations, private-sector leaders, academics, and development partners explored strategies for advancing integration across the region.
• CAF also highlighted its longstanding role in supporting regional integration, noting that it has approved 118 credit operations worth US$16.73Bn for integration-related projects over the past three decades. During the last five years, it has expanded investments in physical connectivity, productive development, digital transformation, energy integration, and environmental conservation.
• The US$10Bn commitment reflects growing recognition that deeper regional integration could help Latin America and the Caribbean improve competitiveness, strengthen supply chains, and reduce vulnerability to geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and global economic uncertainty.

(Source: Dominica News Online)

• The Dominican government has extended its fertiliser subsidy programme through new agreements with companies that import agricultural inputs and raw materials, allocating more than RD$1.09Bn to help stabilise production costs and protect food prices through August 31.
• The agreements were signed at the Ministry of Agriculture by Minister Francisco Oliverio Espaillat and representatives of large and small importing companies. With the latest allocation, total government support for fertiliser subsidies now reaches RD$2.151Bn, reinforcing efforts to support farmers amid global economic uncertainty.
• According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the initiative helps maintain affordable fertiliser prices, strengthen food security, and prevent significant increases in the cost of the basic food basket.
• The agreements establish cooperation between the government and the private sector to guarantee a steady supply of fertiliser raw materials, prevent shortages, and ensure input availability during peak agricultural seasons. One agreement involves major importers responsible for meeting national demand, while the second includes 11 smaller importers to broaden market participation and support wider access to agricultural inputs.
• Authorities and industry representatives highlighted the programme’s role in sustaining agricultural production, preserving price stability, supporting the long-term competitiveness of the Dominican agricultural sector, and helping keep food affordable for consumers.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are similar to what they were before the start of ​the Iran war, as tankers exit the key waterway with the help of ‌military escorts, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said.
• Wright noted that some 20 million barrels of crude oil exited the strait in the last 24 hours, amounting to around a fifth of world consumption, ​and similar to levels in recent days following an initial U.S.-Iran agreement to ​end the conflict. He added that even if the initial deal reached ​this month to end the conflict did not hold, oil would continue to flow
• Benchmark oil prices fell more than $3 on Wednesday to their lowest level since before the start ‌of the ⁠Iran war in February as supply concerns eased with more stranded oil tankers exiting the strait. Shipments through the narrow waterway bordering Iran had been curtailed for months by the conflict.
• Of note, many of the vessels exiting the strait were avoiding the main channel due to ​fear of mines and instead passing close ⁠to the Iranian coast or along the southern route near Oman, with military escorts. The number of ships is lower than usual, ​but many are bigger, he said.
• Venezuela's oil exports, which the United States has administered since ⁠U.S. forces ​captured former leader Nicolas Maduro in January, are rising ​and could double from current levels to around 2 million barrels per day by the end of President Donald ​Trump's administration in 2029.

(Source: Reuters)

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence Wednesday that the U.S. economy can get back on the path to 3% growth as the Iran war nears conclusion. Growth, however, has been slow over the past two quarters as the domestic economy has battled a number of factors, including a resurgence in inflation, a labour market that had been moderating, and the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
• Gross domestic product rose at a 1.6% annualized rate in the first quarter after rising just 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, concluding a year of 2.1% growth. However, Bessent reiterated that his “3-3-3” plan is still in reach - 3% growth, a 3% deficit-to-GDP rate and a 3 million barrels per day increase in domestic oil production. He estimated that the economy was running at about a 4% growth rate in February, just prior to the U.S. and Israel launching their attack on Iran.
• On the deficit goal, he said: “I think by the end of the president’s term, we can be at something that looks like it could have a three in front of it. What’s important about that is that’s when you start paying down overall debt as a per cent of the economy.” The deficit-to-GDP ratio was at 5.8% to end 2025 after holding above 6% in 2023 and 2024 - uncommonly high rates for peacetime as heavy fiscal spending during the Covid pandemic spilt over into subsequent years.
• The budget shortfall stands at $1.25 trillion through the first eight months of fiscal 2026, 9% lower than the prior year. A main contributor has been high financing costs, which account for the biggest budget outlay after Social Security.
• Trump has repeatedly pushed for the Federal Reserve to lower benchmark interest rates as a way to ease the debt burden. However, the Fed has resisted additional rate cuts during the inflation surge this year. Bessent said Trump has “every confidence” that new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will guide policy appropriately.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica's tourism sector remained depressed in April 2026 as stopover arrivals declined 20.4% year-over-year (YoY) to 198,126 visitors, reflecting the lingering impact of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa. Year-to-date (YTD: January-April), stopover arrivals fell 25.7% to 732,778 visitors compared to 986,392 during the corresponding period in 2025. Data on international terminal passenger traffic at Jamaica's two major airports from Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V., showing decreases of 22.0% and 6.0% from Sangster International (SIA) and Norman Manley International (NMIA), respectively, had already foretold the decline.
• The decline was largely driven by weakness in Jamaica's key source markets. Arrivals from the United States, which accounted for 63.6% of total stopover visitors YTD, fell 23.8% in April and 30.6% for the January-April period. Canada and Europe also recorded YTD contractions of 25.1% and 9.5%, respectively.
• In contrast, Latin America continued to be a bright spot, with stopover arrivals increasing 32.2% in April and 26.5% YTD, albeit from a small base. Strong monthly growth from countries like Colombia (+174.4%), Argentina (+53.2%), and Mexico (+36.3%) highlighted the region's potential to support diversification of the island’s visitor base.
• Cruise tourism also marked another bright spot, showing signs of recovery, with 109,577 (+10.6%) passengers visiting the island in April 2026. Falmouth welcomed the largest share of visitors, followed by Montego Bay and Ocho Rios, reflecting the continued normalisation of Jamaica's cruise operations. That said, YTD, cruise arrivals are up modestly by 0.9%.
• The continued weakness in stopover arrivals likely reflects the slower recovery of the Western corridor of the island, which serves as Jamaica's primary tourism hub. While several properties have resumed operations following Hurricane Melissa, several major hotels in and around Montego Bay remain closed or are operating at reduced capacity, with some not expected to reopen until the second half of 2026^[1]. Consequently, accommodation constraints and reduced tourism capacity have continued to weigh on visitor arrivals, even as other resort areas recover more quickly.
• The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused a sharp rise in energy prices that has led to a surge in airfares and general inflationary pressures across our major source markets, which is weighing on travel demand. The rise in cost of jet fuel has caused airlines worldwide to raise ticket prices and this has been compounded by the bankruptcy of low-cost carrier- Spirit Airlines. Simultaneously, higher inflation is also pressuring real disposable incomes in our main source markets. This combination may encourage travellers to delay vacations, shorten stays, or substitute toward lower-cost destinations. Consequently, tourism demand could remain subdued in the near term, posing an additional headwind to the recovery in stopover arrivals and the broader tourism sector.
• Looking ahead, the tourism sector is likely to remain depressed in the short term. According to data from GAP, terminal passenger traffic declined by a further 19.1% and 5.2% at SIA and NMIA in May. This has resulted in a total YTD (Jan.-May) decline of 27.3% and 4.1%, respectively. Continued weakness in stopover arrivals will therefore continue to pose headwinds for a rebound in tourism activity and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026.

________________________

¹According to Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett, making his contribution to the Sectoral Debate in Parliament on June 23, 2026, Jamaica's tourism sector is expected to recover more than 80% of its hotel room capacity by this summer, as the industry continues its rebound from the devastation caused by Hurricane Melissa.

(Sources: JTB, GAP, Travel Pulse & NCBCM Research)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) officially launched its new Micro Market trading platform on Tuesday, June 23, 2026, creating a dedicated avenue for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) to access equity financing and participate in the capital markets. The initiative is guided by three core objectives: facilitating equity financing, strengthening access to capital markets, and creating a pathway for business growth through improved governance and market participation.
• Speaking at the launch event, Finance Minister Fayval Williams highlighted that the initiative is intended to broaden access to capital for smaller businesses while providing investors with new opportunities to participate in the growth of Jamaica's entrepreneurial sector.
• The Micro Market is designed to support businesses within the participating equity capital range of approximately J$10Mn-J$50Mn, while providing a structured pathway for companies seeking to scale and eventually access larger segments of the market. Previously, the Micro Market Steering Committee noted that the initiative could facilitate up to 25 listings within its first two years.
• Importantly, similar to the benefits of listing on the Junior Market, companies listed on the Micro Market will benefit from a full income tax holiday for the first five years following listing, followed by a 50% income tax concession for years six through ten, making it an attractive incentive available to growing businesses locally.
• The JSE also introduced a "sandbox" framework to help smaller enterprises gain experience with listing requirements and market standards before formally entering the exchange, while listed entities will be required to make at least 20% of their shares available to the public to promote inclusion and shared ownership.

(Sources: IrieFM & NCBCM Research)