• Britain must maintain its budget discipline, tackle high pension spending and ‌address soaring energy prices to speed up its economy, the OECD said on Wednesday, underscoring the challenges for Andy Burnham, who is set to become prime minister next week.
• The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said the UK economy had stabilised after ​a string of shocks including Brexit. "But activity remains subdued, and the evolving conflict in the Middle East ​is testing its resilience," the Paris-based organisation said in a report. High and volatile energy ⁠prices, rising fiscal pressures, weak productivity growth and large regional disparities continue to weigh on economic performance and ​living standards.
• Former Manchester mayor Burnham, who is on course to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister, has vowed ​to stick to the government's fiscal rules. But some investors are concerned that he might increase public spending under pressure from within his centre-left Labour Party.
• The OECD expects ​Britain's economy to grow by 0.9% this year and 1.1% in 2027. The forecasts were slightly weaker than those published last ‌week ⁠by the International Monetary Fund for 1% growth this year and 1.3% next year.
• Finance minister Rachel Reeves, responding to the OECD report, said Britain was on course for the fastest growth amongst Europe's big, rich economies, with AI and better ties with the European Union helping the economy. The OECD said Britain should invest more in the ​electrification of its economy to ​reduce its reliance on ⁠gas imports, which surged in price this year due to the Iran war.
• "Risks remain tilted to the downside, particularly if a prolonged Middle East conflict further increases ​energy prices or global trade fragmentation intensifies," the OECD said. The organisation also said public spending ​increases should ⁠be targeted towards productivity-enhancing investment and tax efficiency reforms were needed to rebuild the government's fiscal room for manoeuvre and support long-term economic growth.

Source: Reuters

• The latest data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) showed annual point-to-point (P2P) inflation accelerated to 6.7% in June, exceeding the Bank of Jamaica's (BOJ’s) 4.0%-6.0% target range for the first time this year. It reinforced the central bank's warning that inflation would temporarily breach its ceiling amid rising transportation and food costs in the wake of a US-Iran war-driven surge in energy costs.
• P2P contributions for the divisions: ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (9.8%), ‘Transport’ (7.3%) and ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (3.5%) were the primary drivers of the rise in consumer prices for June.
• Consumer prices rose by 0.8% in June, following a 0.5% increase in May. June's monthly increase was driven primarily by a 4.3% rise in the 'Transport' division, reflecting the implementation of higher Public Passenger Vehicle (PPV) fares for route taxis and hackney carriages. The fare adjustment, which rolled out in two equal 8% fare increases in June and July, had already been identified by BOJ as a key upside risk to inflation. It is expected to continue filtering through transportation costs over the coming months, in addition to the resurgence in energy prices that has begun since the start of renewed hostilities in the Middle East in July.
• Food prices also continued to trend upward, with the 'Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages' division rising 0.7%. Higher prices for agricultural produce, including carrots, cabbages, onions and sweet peppers, resulting in a 2.9% increase in the index for 'Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses', put upward pressure on the index.
• The 'Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels' division, which increased 0.5% due to higher household rental rates and electricity charges, also added to the inflationary impulses.
• With headline inflation breaching the target range, the BOJ is likely to opt to maintain the policy rate at 5.50% at its August 19^th meeting, especially since expectations are for the breach to be temporary. The BOJ has consistently signalled that inflation is likely to remain above target in the near term as higher international commodity prices continue to feed through to the domestic economy.
• Against this backdrop, the re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz further reinforce upside risks to inflation, particularly through fuel, electricity and transportation costs, suggesting the central bank is likely to retain a cautious, data-dependent stance.

(Sources: STATIN, BOJ, & NCBCM Research)

• Benefiting from stronger project execution, improved sales conversion and the remobilisation of previously delayed projects, Innovative Energy Group Limited (ENERGY)¹ returned to quarterly profitability. Net profit totalled J$30.79Mn for the fourth quarter ended May 31, 2026 (Q4 FY2026), compared with a net loss of J$40.90Mn for Q4 FY2025.
• Increased project activity and higher revenue recognition meant Q4 revenues surged 315.3% year-over-year (YoY) to J$122.55Mn. This featured the conversion of secured opportunities into active projects and renewed execution momentum following delays caused by Hurricane Melissa.
• Q4 Gross profit reached J$60.81Mn in Q4 compared with a gross loss of J$7.55Mn in the previous corresponding period. While cost of sales rose to J$61.75Mn (+66.6%), likely due to the timing of material purchases, gross profit margin stood at 49.6%. Meanwhile, operating profit increased to J$47.45Mn, rebounding from an operating loss of J$36.73Mn in the comparative quarter. The group benefited from operational improvements, which trimmed operating expenses by 10.8%.
• ENERGY also benefited from J$15.62Mn in other income, including approximately J$13.00Mn in fair value gains on investment property. However, this was countered by finance costs of J$11.17Mn and taxation of J$5.48Mn.
• Still, annual net profit declined 58.2% YoY to J$34.38Mn from J$82.19Mn in FY2025. A 6.0% revenue growth to $340.47Mn faced a 58.8% increase in COGS and a 9.4% increase in OPEX, reflective of lower profitability during Q2 and Q3. Consequently, the full-year net profit margin contracted to 10.1% from 25.6%.
• Looking ahead, management has improved revenue visibility. This is supported by approximately J$900Mn in newly secured contracts and the remobilisation of previously delayed projects valued at approximately J$1.4Bn. These projects are targeted for execution in FY2026/2027 and are expected to support revenue growth and improved profitability.
• ENERGY’s shares were held firm year-to-date, ending at J$0.99 on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. However, it has traded as low as J$0.85 in April and June before closing at J$0.93 on July 14th, the day before the company's earnings release. At its current market price, the company trades at a P/E ratio of 38.1x, compared with the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 18.5x.

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¹Following its transition from Ciboney Group Limited to Innovative Energy Group Limited and its relisting on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) in March 2024, the Group continues to position itself as a sustainable energy-focused company.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Spain has named nine Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries among 60 nations worldwide whose citizens will be allowed to enter the European country without a visa for short stays.
• According to a statement from Spain’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the CARICOM countries included on the list are Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, The Bahamas, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago, and St Vincent and the Grenadines.
• The announcement does not include several other CARICOM member states, including Jamaica, Guyana, Suriname, Belize and Haiti, whose citizens will continue to require visas before travelling to Spain.
• The visa exemption allows holders of ordinary passports from the approved countries to visit Spain and other countries within the Schengen Area¹ for tourism, business travel and other short-term purposes. Travellers will be permitted to stay for up to 90 days within any 180 days without first obtaining a Schengen visa.
• In addition to the Caribbean countries, Spain is extending visa-free access to citizens of eight African nations: Botswana, Namibia, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mauritius, Seychelles, Cape Verde and Rwanda.
• The move forms part of Spain’s broader visa policy for countries considered to meet the requirements for short-stay visa exemptions. Citizens of most other Caribbean and African countries will still be required to apply for a Schengen visa before travelling to Spain or other countries within the Schengen zone.

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¹The Schengen Area is a border-free travel zone encompassing 29 European countries. It eliminates routine internal passport controls, allowing over 450 million people to move freely as if they were a single country.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Federal Reserve policymakers preparing for their next policy meeting in two weeks got a fresh snapshot on Wednesday of a broadly improving economy. Employment is on the rise but not straining wage bills, and inflation is easing slightly but still delivering an unwelcome sting.
• "Compared with the last reporting period, price growth was the same or slower in all districts," it said. "Expectations for price growth over the coming months varied across districts, with contacts in some expecting inflation to continue at its current pace, while contacts in others expected inflation to slow, in part due to falling fuel prices."
• Elevated inflation pushed about half of the policymakers at the Fed's June 16-17 meeting to project at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. Kevin Warsh has been silent about his own rate-path view, even as he repeatedly promised to restore price stability and said the central bank has the tools to do so — a commitment he reiterated in back-to-back appearances before lawmakers in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.
• A drop in fuel prices last month due to a preliminary peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran helped cool inflation, data this week showed, but renewed hostilities this month have pushed oil prices back up and reignited inflation concerns.
• The labour market is not contributing to inflation, the report suggested — a point that Fed policymakers have also made. But non-labour input costs continue to rise, the report found, across "a variety of industries — including services, construction, and manufacturing — and reflected, in part, higher costs for energy, transportation, and raw materials."

(Sources: Reuters)

• China's economy in the second quarter expanded at its weakest pace since the fourth quarter of 202. It’s reinforcing calls for policy stimulus as an accelerating slide in investments deepened the strain on growth, while consumption stayed subdued. Gross domestic product growth came in at 4.3% in the April to June period, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed Wednesday. It missed economists' forecast for 4.5% growth in a Reuters poll, and slowed from 5% in the first quarter.
• Urban fixed-asset investment, including real estate development and infrastructure projects, declined 5.7% in the first six months from a year earlier, worse than expectations for a 4.9% drop in a Reuters poll. The investment in real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing plunged 18%, 2.4% and 1.2%, respectively, according to the official data.
• In June, China's retail sales grew 1%, rebounding from a 0.6% drop in the prior month and exceeding economists' forecast for a 0.1% fall. Retail sales in May posted their first monthly decline since late 2022, dragged down by tepid demand and merchants' steep discounting.
  Industrial output expanded 5.3% in June from a year ago, stronger than the forecast 4.7% growth, and gaining pace from a 4.5% expansion in May.
• China's export growth beat expectations in June, clocking the strongest rise since late 2021, powered by demand for chips, computers and parts, and power equipment.
  The export strength, however, is straining ties with trade partners. China's surplus with the European Union widened 24% in the first half, according to Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, driven by machinery and vehicle shipments.
• Chinese urban unemployment rate, which excludes those who leave cities for rural areas, remained steady at 5% in June. A separate survey, which counted people who have been jobless for the past two years and are no longer covered in the official labour force survey, showed China's broad unemployment rate at a much higher 10.2%. More than half of the roughly 24 million long-term unemployed are aged 16 to 24.

(Source: CNBC)

• Aided by strong organic growth and the contribution from recent acquisitions, Image Plus Consultants Limited (IPCL) reported a 138.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase in net profit to J$32.78Mn for the first quarter ended May 31, 2026 (Q1 FY2027).
• Driven by higher patient volumes and the acquisitions of The Woman's Place (TWP) and Island Radiology Limited (IR)¹, revenues increased 31.6% year-over-year (YoY) to J$351.93Mn. The acquired businesses contributed J$45.7Mn, or 54%, of the increase in revenue, with IR adding one month of results following the May 1 completion of the acquisition. Furthermore, total scans completed during the quarter rose 28.9% to 17,444 from 13,528 in the prior-year period, while the Ministry of Health (MOH-EHCSD) referral cases represented 8.9% of the total revenues.
• While IPCL’s expanded operations meant direct costs rose 34.5% to J$126.18Mn, revenue growth largely offset the increase, resulting in a relatively stable gross profit margin of 64.2% compared with 64.9% a year earlier.
• Administrative expenses also increased 25.5% to J$153.56Mn as the company absorbed the costs associated with integrating its acquisitions. Even so, operating performance improved, with operating profit surging 77.0% to J$41.84Mn and the operating margin expanding to 11.9% from 8.8%. Ultimately, net profit margins rose to 9.3% from 5.1% in the previous corresponding quarter.
• Looking ahead, management expects the integration of IR to support sustained revenue growth and further operating efficiencies as the enlarged network benefits from greater scale. While higher leverage following the acquisitions could keep finance costs elevated over the near term, the company remains focused on disciplined cost management, seamless integration of its acquired businesses and converting its expanded market position into long-term shareholder value. Achieving these objectives could help IPCL’s earnings rebound to its FY2023 peak of J$236.43Mn.
• IPCL stock has declined 15.0% year-to-date, closing at J$0.85 on Tuesday, July 14, 2026. At its current price, IPCL trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.2x, which is below the Junior Market Health Sector average of 22.50x.

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¹During the quarter, IPCL completed its acquisition of Island Radiology Limited, expanding its network to eight diagnostic imaging locations across Jamaica and strengthening its presence in Central Jamaica through the addition of MRI and bone densitometry services.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Jamaican Senate has approved the Pensions (Superannuation Funds and Retirement Schemes) (Registration, Licensing and Reporting) (Amendment) Regulations, 2026, paving the way for a phased increase in the proportion of pension fund assets that may be invested in private company equity. The allowable allocation will rise from 5.0% to 7.5% during the current fiscal year, with a further increase to 10.0% by April 2027, subject to regulatory oversight and satisfactory market outcomes.
• Piloting the regulations, Senator Kavan Gayle said the phased approach balances investment diversification with prudent risk management.
• The Government said the reform is intended to modernise the pension investment framework by expanding access to alternative asset classes while maintaining supervisory safeguards. The increased allocation is expected to improve portfolio diversification, reduce concentration risk and enhance the long-term return potential for pension funds.
• Opposition Senator Ramon Small-Ferguson supported the amendment, noting that Jamaican pension portfolios remain heavily concentrated in Government of Jamaica securities. He argued that broader exposure to private equity could strengthen portfolio resilience while directing additional long-term capital toward sectors such as housing, energy, infrastructure and productive businesses.
• Furthermore, the measure is expected to increase the availability of institutional capital for Jamaica's private sector, supporting business expansion, job creation and long-term economic growth, while providing pension fund managers with greater flexibility to pursue diversified investment strategies within established regulatory limits.
• As of September 2025, Jamaica's pension industry managed approximately J$847Bn in assets, with the higher allocation expected to unlock more than J$21Bn in additional capital for investment in private businesses, infrastructure and innovation.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) held its repo rate at 3.50% at its second quarterly meeting of 2026, the level maintained since March 2020. The Bank cited low inflation, slowing credit growth, and weak domestic activity amid natural gas supply constraints, soft business confidence, and decelerating lending. Accordingly, Business Monitor International (BMI) has revised its 2026 policy-rate forecast down from 4.0% to 3.50%, as previously expected hikes now look unlikely.
• Leadership had signalled in September 2025 a need to raise rates to narrow the TT$-US$ differential and stabilise the foreign exchange (FX) market (a move the International Monetary Fund (IMF) encouraged in May). However, elevated oil prices stemming from US-Iran tensions have eased that pressure by boosting energy exports and foreign reserves, supporting the de facto peg to the US dollar.
• Domestic market interest rates have trended upward, with 1- and 10-year Treasury yields moving from 4.11% and 5.61%, respectively, in May 2025 to 4.75% and 6.03% in May 2026. However, rates are expected to move higher in 2027 as the temporary boost fades – namely, rising oil prices stemming from US-Iran tension - and reserves resume their decline.
• Inflation has stayed remarkably low, with headline inflation slowing to 0.3% y-o-y in May 2026 (down from 0.4% in April and 1.4% a year earlier). Aided by fuel price caps, falling housing and transportation costs (together 42.2% of Consumer Price Index (CPI) weight), and a strengthening TT$, that has appreciated toward TTD6.73/USD from 6.77, has helped to keep inflation contained. Food price growth eased to 0.8% following the October 2025 removal of Value Added Tax (VAT) on certain items, and core inflation rose by just 0.2%.
• BMI expects inflation to remain contained, averaging 1.0% for the year and ending at 1.5%, and forecasts the CBTT to hold the rate through year-end while continuing FX intervention to support the currency. Risks are skewed to the upside, as any reignition of US-Iran tensions and higher-for-longer oil prices could pass through into domestic prices.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company, NCBCM Research)

• The Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) warned on Monday that a potentially powerful El Niño weather ​pattern could become the next big test for ‌Latin American markets. It raisied the risk of faster inflation, prolonged high interest rates and fresh pressure on some of ​the region's most fragile economies.
• The bank said ​the weather phenomenon, which disrupts rainfall and temperature patterns ⁠across the Pacific, could bring floods to some ​countries and drought to others, with knock-on effects ​for crops, fisheries, hydropower and infrastructure.
• Among the countries UBS reviewed, Colombia stood out as the most vulnerable, reflecting a combination of high exposure to food and electricity-price shocks, sticky inflation and a weak fiscal position.
• Brazil and Peru were also ‌flagged ⁠as at risk: Brazil because of macroeconomic fragility, and Peru because of heavier direct climate exposure, including possible damage to agriculture, fishing and transport infrastructure.
• UBS said Venezuela could face renewed strain ⁠on hydroelectric output during droughts, while Panama may see lower water levels disrupt canal traffic. Argentina, by contrast, could benefit if stronger rainfall ⁠boosts grain and oilseed production.
• UBS said any El Niño-driven inflation shock would likely reinforce expectations for higher policy ⁠rates, as Latin American central banks remain inclined to stay hawkish to defend credibility and limit currency weakness.

(Source: Reuters)