• Despite improved topline, Fontana Limited (FTNA) reported a 12.9% decline in net profit to $507.80Mn for the year ended June 30, 2026, from a restated $583.09Mn in FY2025. The weaker earnings reflected one-off disruption costs associated with Hurricane Melissa, alongside higher financing and amortisation expenses related to its acquisition of Monarch Pharmacy in March 2025.
• Buoyed by continued same-store sales growth, increased customer activity, and a growing contribution from the four Monarch Pharmacy locations, revenue was up 12.4% to $10.70Bn.
• However, the stronger top-line performance was accompanied by faster growth in its cost base, with cost of sales increasing 13.2% to $6.68Bn. As a result, gross margin narrowed by 44 basis points to 37.6%. The margin compression reflected lower sales volumes of higher-margin products at the Western locations, which were significantly affected by Hurricane Melissa, as well as a $15.81Bn inventory write-off related to hurricane damage.
• Total operating expenses (Opex) increased 18.3% to $3.36Bn, outpacing revenue growth, with administrative and other expenses rising 19.2% to $3.26Bn. Higher staff and support costs associated with expanded operations, integration and one-time expenses related to the Monarch acquisition, and set-up costs for its new Ora concept stores were the primary drivers of the increase in Opex. The temporary costs from store closures, reduced trading hours, and ramp-up activities at newly acquired and opened locations.
• The bottom line was further compounded by finance costs, which rose 12.5% to $280.89Mn, reflecting higher loan interest, which more than doubled by 105.7% to $128.52Mn. The increase reflected the additional costs associated with the $300Mn Tranche B senior unsecured bond raised during the year to support working capital requirements.
• Looking ahead, Fontana remains focused on completing the integration of Monarch locations, expanding the Ora by Fontana beauty and skincare concept (including a planned Sovereign Centre location), and pursuing further network growth, with management continuing to note improving revenue-to-expense alignment across the acquired stores as integration matures.
• However, there are risks. Escalating geopolitical tensions could disrupt the supply of imported goods, increase input and procurement costs, and ultimately weigh on revenue growth if product availability is constrained or higher costs are passed on to customers. Additionally, rising inflation presents significant risks to consumer spending and demand for Fontana’s products due to weaker purchasing power. Fontana also carries elevated finance costs following its recent bond issuances, and its goodwill balance of $698.3Mn (arising from the Barbican and Monarch acquisitions) remains subject to annual impairment testing, a matter auditors flagged as a key audit matter. That said, no impairment was identified as at FY 2026 year-end.
• At the close of trading on September 14, 2026, FTNA's share price was J$6.18, representing a 20.7% decline year-to-date. At this level, the stock trades at a P/E of 16.7x, which is in line with the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 16.6x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Passenger traffic across Global Airport Partners’ (GAP) Jamaican operations showed a pronounced divergence, with Kingston delivering modest year on year growth while Montego Bay recorded a sharp contraction. The contrasting performance highlights continued weakness in Jamaica’s tourism-driven air traffic, particularly at Sangster International, which experienced the steepest decline across GAP’s 12 airports in Mexico plus two in Jamaica, during the month.
• At Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport, passenger traffic increased 2.8% year-over-year to 205,100 in August, driven by a 3.0% rise in international passengers. Overall, International travel continued to account for virtually all airport traffic, with domestic activity remaining negligible
• Montego Bay’s Sangster International Airport, by contrast, saw total passenger traffic plunge 23.0% year-on-year to 344,600 passengers. Given the airport’s near-exclusive reliance on international traffic, the 23.0% decline in international passengers closely mirrored the overall contraction, pointing to continued softness in inbound tourism and/or capacity from key source markets.
• The divergence becomes more pronounced on a year-to-date basis. For January–August 2026, Kingston’s passenger traffic declined a relatively modest 1.5% to 1.25 million, while Montego Bay recorded a much steeper 26.2% contraction to 2.63 million passengers. The weakness at Sangster is not simply a one-month disruption but part of a sustained trend since the passage of Melissa.
• Despite the contraction, Montego Bay remains significantly larger than Kingston, handling roughly twice the passenger traffic both in August and year-to-date. As a result, the sharp decline at Sangster more than outweighed Kingston’s modest growth and pulled the Jamaican operations lower overall. This contrasted with the broader GAP network, where total passenger traffic increased 0.5% in August, including 2.6% growth across its 12 Mexican airports. Jamaica therefore remained a notable drag on the group’s overall traffic performance.
• Looking ahead, a gradual improvement is expected throughout the remainder of the year, but there are risks. As tourism activity normalises and the industry continues to recover from the impact of Hurricane Melissa, the outlook for Jamaica’s tourism sector remains positive. More than 1,900 hotel rooms are expected to return to the market in December alone, while over 11,000 rooms are projected to reopen between 2026 and 2027.
• The phased return of this capacity should support the sector’s recovery, strengthen accommodation availability, and position Jamaica to accommodate further growth in visitor arrivals. However, near-term risks remain, particularly from the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed jet fuel prices higher and has been passed on to consumers through increased airfares. This could weigh on travel demand, with industry indicators already pointing to the potential for softer tourism performance later in the year.

 (Sources: Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana’s offshore oil production averaged 886,000 barrels per day (b/d) in July, up from 869,000 b/d in June but still below May’s 895,000 b/d, marking a third straight month below 900,000 b/d, according to government data reviewed by OilNOW. The four Stabroek Block developments had shown the ability to exceed 900,000 b/d earlier in the year.
• The softness continues to be driven by the Liza projects. Liza 1 averaged approximately 108,000 b/d in July and Liza 2 approximately 245,000 b/d, while the newer Payara and Yellowtail developments averaged roughly 263,000 b/d and 270,000 b/d, respectively.
• Liza 1, whose Liza Destiny floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel began producing in December 2019, has declined noticeably from prior-year levels. Liza 2 is less clear cut, as OilNOW’s review of daily data shows output fell sharply in the final week of July rather than declining steadily over time.
• Guyana nonetheless remains on course for another substantial increase in output from the fourth quarter of 2026. Uaru, the fifth Stabroek Block development, is expected to come onstream in the aforementioned quarter, with its Errea Wittu FPSO targeting up to 250,000 b/d, more than offsetting the Liza declines and pushing production to new highs.
• Production averaged approximately 899,000 b/d over the first seven months of 2026, with cumulative output since first oil in December 2019 reaching roughly 991.7 million barrels by the end of July. ExxonMobil has said the block passed one billion barrels during the third quarter, implying Guyana crossed the milestone in early August.
• All output comes from the Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil with a 45% interest, alongside Chevron (through Hess) at 30% and CNOOC at 25%. The consortium has invested more than US$55 billion offshore Guyana, bringing four projects onstream since 2019, with Uaru to become the fifth.

(Source: OilNOW)

• El Niño in the equatorial Pacific has reached very strong intensity and could persist until June 2027, spanning Costa Rica’s entire upcoming dry season and the start of the next rainy one. That is longer and stronger than the National Meteorological Institute (IMN) projected in May, when it expected the event to reach strong intensity late this year and weaken in early 2027.
• Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region ran about 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal in August, warmer than the same stretch of the benchmark 1997 and 2015 events. IMN meteorologist Daniel Poleo said the anomaly already qualifies as extraordinary, the label used once it passes 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), and is the highest in 38 years of records, with the event likely to gain a little more force.
• Subsurface pockets running up to 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average are expected to drift toward the coast of South America and rise, lifting surface temperatures further. Because El Niño typically peaks late in the year, current readings are unlikely to be the maximum.
• The IMN drought early warning system already places the Pacific slope, the Central Valley and the western Northern Zone, including Guatuso, Los Chiles and Upala, under meteorological drought, and Poleo expects those conditions to hold rather than ease. September is on track to close with the North Pacific roughly 80% below normal rainfall, the Central and South Pacific 60% below, the Central Valley 50% below and the western Northern Zone 10% below.
• The Caribbean is the usual El Niño exception, with the North Caribbean set to end the month about 20% wetter than normal and the South Caribbean about 30% wetter, leaving one side of the country flooding while the other dries out. From October through December the Caribbean and the eastern Northern Zone should return to normal rainfall while the western Northern Zone runs about 30% short.
• Over the same period, the Pacific and the Central Valley will slide early into dry season conditions, with rains ending ahead of schedule, above-average temperatures and a late, weaker season of cold surges from the north. Anyone relying on a well, rainwater tank, river intake or reservoir faces an extended stretch rather than a passing dry spell, though Poleo cautioned that a very strong El Niño does not scale up every impact proportionally and Costa Rica has no comparable event in the last 40 or 50 years to forecast from.

(Source: The Tico Times)

• Canada's annual inflation growth rate held at 3% in August, the same as last month, as crude prices continued to stay firm and food prices cooled moderately, data showed on Monday, September 14, 2026. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecasted the annual inflation rate at 3% and monthly inflation to register no change.
• Next month's consumer price ‌index data release, which would be for the month of September, could show further strengthening as benchmark Brent crude price crossed $100 per barrel this month and U.S. President Donald Trump's new 50% tariffs and Canada's retaliatory measures impact costs for the full month.
• On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices fell 0.1%, Statistics Canada said. Gasoline prices eased slightly in August ⁠but still increased at an annual rate of 22.8%. This was down from a 25.7% increase noted in July.
• Food prices, which have been accelerating faster than headline inflation since July, eased slightly and registered an annual growth rate of 2.8%. This was the first time in 14 months that food prices fell below the 3% mark. Prices for dairy products led the deceleration in food prices, with costs rising 0.7% annually in August compared with a 3.1% rise in July. Cheese and yoghurt were the top contributors to the slowdown in dairy prices, StatsCan said.
• CPI-median, the centermost component of the CPI basket, stood at 2%, while CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was at 1.9% in August, the same as reported in July. These ⁠core measures have largely hovered around 2% for the last several months, easing worries that crude prices were spilling onto other costs. Shelter costs, which include rents and mortgage interest costs, increased slightly to 1.5% in August from 1.3% in July.
• Despite the contained prices in August, the ⁠Bank of Canada (BoC) said last month that it will not hesitate to increase rates multiple times if inflation stays higher and impacts the closely watched core measures. The central bank strives to keep inflation around the midpoint of ⁠its target range of 1% to 3%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The ongoing conflict between the United States (U.S.) and Iran could make it harder for Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to deliver on nearly $4Tn in economic commitments to the U.S. announced under President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.
• The Gulf states are facing growing economic pressure from the war, including the need to spend more on defence, energy infrastructure and trade, potentially diverting financial resources away from previously announced U.S. investments.
• The conflict has weakened their fiscal positions and economic prospects, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting its 2026 growth forecasts significantly. Qatar’s forecast was reduced by 14.7 percentage points to 8.6%, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s forecasts were both lowered to 1.7%, from 4.5% and 5.6%, respectively.
• While Gulf governments have sufficient financial assets and borrowing capacity to avoid an immediate funding crisis, mounting economic pressures could encourage them to prioritise domestic investment over U.S. commitments. Saudi Arabia had already begun rebalancing toward domestic investment before the war, with its Public Investment Fund reducing the share of its portfolio allocated to international investments to 20% from 30% in 2020.
• The potential consequences of delayed commitments were highlighted earlier this year when President Trump threatened to raise tariffs on South Korean goods over delays in implementing its U.S. investment agreement. South Korea is now reportedly close to a potential energy investment deal worth more than $100Bn to support the expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure in the U.S.
• Against this backdrop, delays in fulfilling the Gulf states’ investment commitments could lead to additional pressure from the White House, while political concerns in the U.S. surrounding Gulf investments, governance and potential conflicts of interest could further complicate implementation.

(Source: Aljazeera)

• The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) has returned to the international capital markets with a 6.25% US$1Bn unsecured bond issue due in 2037, as part of a broader strategy to restructure external debt, extend maturities and provide additional financing for the 2026/27 Budget. Approximately US$600Mn of the proceeds will finance a tender and exchange offer for existing global bonds, while the remaining US$400Mn will be available for general budgetary purposes.
• The GOJ simultaneously launched an offer to repurchase portions of three outstanding international bonds with a combined face value of approximately US$2.33Bn. These include US$837.53Mn of notes due in 2028 carrying a 6.75% coupon, US$250Mn due in 2036 at 8.50%, and US$1.24Bn due in 2039 at 8.00%. The initiative forms part of Jamaica’s broader programme to proactively manage its external public debt.
• The tender opened on September 2 and was scheduled to close on September 9, with settlement expected by September 17. The transaction is intended to reduce refinancing risks by replacing portions of existing debt with a new instrument carrying a longer maturity.
• The latest borrowing comes amid weaker-than-budgeted fiscal performance during the opening months of 2026/27. Central government revenue and grants for April to July amounted to US$2.23Bn, 8% below budget, while tax collections were approximately US$134.5Mn below projections. Consequently, GOJ recorded a fiscal deficit of roughly US$210.9Mn, compared with a budgeted deficit of US$194.9Mn, although stronger loan receipts provided support to overall financing.
• The prospectus highlighted continuing economic risks following Hurricane Melissa, geopolitical conflicts and volatility in international energy markets, which could affect growth, inflation and government revenues. Nevertheless, tourism remains an important source of foreign-exchange support, with 2.34Mn visitors generating US$2.5Bn through August 2026.
• Against regional borrowing benchmarks, Jamaica's 6.25% 2037 notes are priced broadly in line with Trinidad and Tobago's recent 6.20% 2038 and 6.50% 2036 issues. Notably, Trinidad and Tobago holds an investment-grade rating of BBB-/Negative from S&P, compared with Jamaica's BB/Stable rating, while Moody's rates both sovereigns Ba2/Ba3, respectively, with Stable Outlooks. The relatively narrow coupon differential, despite Jamaica's lower credit rating and non-investment-grade status, suggests favourable investor confidence in Jamaica's fiscal consolidation and debt management efforts. Overall, the transaction, along with the tender and exchange offer, supports efforts to reduce refinancing risk and proactively manage Jamaica’s public debt.

(Sources: Caribbean Council & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s fiscal deficit is expected to widen substantially in FY2026/27 (April 2026-March 2027), to 4.8% of GDP, from 2.5% in FY2025/26. Consistent with the pattern seen in the 10 months since Hurricane Melissa made landfall, BMI expects expenditure to continue rising in FY2026/27 to support the island's recovery, increasing from 32.1% of GDP in FY2025/26 to 33.5% in FY2026/27 on higher current and capital spending.
• However, Jamaica's persistent budget-execution issues, already evident in the first three months of FY2026/27, should leave both spending categories below the government's budgeted amounts. On the revenue side, the government's first tax increase in nearly a decade is expected to support collections¹. These measures – including a tax on sugary beverages, a consumption tax on digital imports and a planned tax on vacation rentals for 2027 – will be reinforced by increased investment to strengthen the tax system in the near and medium term. While this will help offset a more severe deterioration in public finances in FY2026/27, lingering revenue-mobilisation challenges and a sluggish, hurricane-damaged economy will continue to weigh on revenues in the near term. Indeed, tax revenue will likely undershoot government estimates in FY2026/27, as already seen in the first three months of the fiscal year.
• Consequently, BMI expects Jamaica's debt-to-GDP ratio will meet the 60% target by 2030, a few years behind schedule, a milestone the government had originally targeted for FY2027/28. In December 2025, the government suspended its fiscal rule – as permitted under the enabling legislation once certain thresholds are met – to allow for greater debt spending to fund the ongoing recovery.
• As expected, this has driven the debt-to-GDP ratio higher. Over the past two quarters, both the total public debt level and the debt-to-GDP ratio have increased, with the latter rising from just over 60% – the country's long-held fiscal target – to more than 67.0% in Q2 2026, and total debt growing by 6.6% between October 2025 and June 2026. This outcome is consistent with the view that debt would rise in the short term to help finance necessary reconstruction and recovery efforts.
• While near-term pressures have pushed debt higher and delayed achievement of the target, BMI expects Jamaica to adopt the fiscal stance needed to return the ratio to its downward path over the medium term. This will be supported by the reimposition of the fiscal rule and by economic recovery – as seen post-pandemic – underpinning Jamaica's sustainable fiscal trajectory and efficacious fiscal anchors. This view is reinforced by the country's institutional strength, robust fiscal and legal frameworks, and enduring political consensus in favour of sustainable public finances.
• That said, risks to the outlook are skewed towards greater fiscal pressures in the near term, which could push the fiscal deficit beyond current forecasts. Additional hurricanes pose a significant threat. In addition, with tensions once again flaring in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran – sending oil prices higher – the resulting shock could strain Jamaica's fiscal accounts. Petrojam, the state oil refinery, is already reporting rising fuel-subsidy costs, despite the government raising the weekly cap on how much domestic fuel prices can increase.

____________________

¹Fitch frequently flags unrealistic or aggressive revenue assumptions as the primary bottleneck in budget execution.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Between US$8Bn and US$10Bn in annual CARICOM imports could be exposed to growing restrictions on shipping through the Panama Canal, according to preliminary analysis by the CARICOM Private Sector Organisation (CPSO). The amount represents approximately one-quarter to one-third of CARICOM’s non-fuel import bill.
• The warning comes as the Panama Canal Authority implements new restrictions amid reduced rainfall and lower water levels. Daily vessel transits are capped at 34 from September 4 and will fall further to 32 from September 15, while rainfall in the canal watershed between May and August was 34% below the historical average.
• The effects are already being reflected in shipping costs. A priority auction slot recently attracted a US$5.3Mn bid, reportedly the highest on record. At the same time, major shipping companies, including CMA CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd, have announced additional surcharges on routes dependent on the canal.
• CPSO estimates that US$4.5Bn–US$7Bn in goods annually transit the Panama Canal directly, with additional cargo routed through US ports before being shipped to Caribbean destinations. Higher auction premiums, surcharges and rerouting costs could therefore translate into higher landed costs and consumer prices across the region.
• Smaller Caribbean markets could also face reduced service frequency, longer delays and lower inventories if shipping constraints force carriers to reroute vessels or reduce port calls. CARICOM’s dependence on imported food, manufactured goods and construction materials increases its exposure to disruptions in international shipping networks.
• CPSO is encouraging importers to engage shipping and logistics providers on routing changes, surcharge exposure and inventory planning ahead of the final quarter of 2026 and the 2027 dry season. It is also promoting greater regional production and alternative supply arrangements to reduce CARICOM’s vulnerability to external supply shocks.
• The Panama Canal restrictions could add another source of inflationary pressure for import-dependent Caribbean economies through higher freight and landed costs. The risk is heightened by simultaneous disruptions affecting other major shipping corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz, which could further raise freight, fuel and risk premiums across the region.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• Tax revenue generated by tourism-related activities in the Dominican Republic has tripled over the past decade, increasing from approximately RD$15Bn to more than RD$45Bn in 2025, according to economist Nassim Alemany.
• The figures include income taxes and other levies linked to tourism, as well as passenger-related fees and revenues generated by hotel and tourism activities. Alemany noted that tourism-related tax revenue has grown more strongly since the pandemic than before 2020.
• The increase has been supported by the expansion of the tourism sector and its linkages with other industries. Beyond hotels and restaurants, tourism generates demand across agriculture, manufacturing, commerce, transportation and construction.
• Tourism-related businesses made approximately RD$220Bn in purchases during 2025, including around RD$68Bn from commerce, RD$26Bn from manufacturing, RD$22Bn from construction and RD$6.8Bn from transportation.
• Tourism’s direct, indirect and induced contribution reached an estimated 15.9% of GDP, compared with a direct contribution of 8.3%, highlighting the sector’s wider impact on economic activity beyond traditional tourism businesses.
• The data highlights tourism’s growing importance not only as a source of visitor spending but also as a contributor to government revenue and wider domestic economic activity. This is supported by continued strength in visitor arrivals, with the Dominican Republic welcoming a record 7.7Mn visitors in the first seven months of 2026. The gap between tourism’s 8.3% direct contribution and 15.9% broader contribution to GDP further underscores the sector’s spillover benefits across other industries.

(Source: Dominican Today)