• The blowback from Hurricane Melissa continues, knocking Knutsford Express Limited’s (KEX’s) performance off route and leaving Express Catering Limited (ECL) with slimmer servings. For their third quarter ending February 28, 2026 (Q3 2026), their earnings fell 68.4% and 63.3%, respectively, relative to Q3 2025.
• Unsurprisingly, the common driver of the decline in earnings was weaker revenues, given that both companies rely on tourist arrivals, particularly ECL, which operates several restaurants at Sangster’s International Airport.
• ECL’s revenues declined by 48.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 39.7% drop in passengers accessing the post-security departure lounge at Sangster International Airport. This reflects the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa, which reduced accommodation capacity across Montego Bay and surrounding resort areas after several properties sustained damage, limiting available room stock.
• In line with the sharp decline in revenues, ECL’s cost of sales fell by 53.2%, but was insufficient to prevent a 46.9% drop in gross profit. Similarly, operating expenses declined by 31.7%, which was accompanied by $0.45Mn in finance income.
• Meanwhile, KEX’s revenues declined by a more modest 8.2%, as the company was able to partially offset losses in affected areas through its diversified route network. Operating expenses were flat (-0.9%) and resulted in a 60.3% decline in operating profit relative to Q3 2025.
• Notably, KEX and ECL’s weaker Q3 reflected wider year-to-date declines, with their 9-month earnings down 53.7% and 49.6%, respectively.
• Looking ahead, ECL and KEX should see gradual improvement in earnings over the next few quarters, as the tourism sector recovers from the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa. Tourism recovery would translate to a meaningful rebound in passenger and traffic flows through Sangster’s, which would be accretive to both companies’ performance.
• KEX also expanded its fleet of coaches, positioning itself to capture the expected uplift in demand while enhancing operational efficiency and reducing downtime. However, it will need to share this demand with competitors, particularly the government-owned JUTC, which has launched its Rural Express offering, providing coach services at significantly lower prices on some of KEX’s key routes.
• KEX’s stock price has decreased by 28.7% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $8.18 and currently trades at a P/E of 28.2x, which is above the Junior Market Other Sector Average of 25.8x. Over the same period, ECL lost 1.7% of its share price to close at $2.44. At this price, it trades at a P/E of 11.4x, which is below the Junior Market Other Sector Average of 25.8x.

(Sources: JSE& NCBCM research)

• Tax Administration Jamaica (TAJ) is reminding the public that, effective April 1, 2026, the Income Tax threshold (tax-free amount) was increased to $1,902,360, up from $1,799,376.
• This adjustment is in keeping with the announcement made by the Minister of Finance and the Public Service, the Hon. Fayval Williams, during the 2025 Budget Presentation. At that time, it was outlined that the annual Income Tax threshold would be progressively increased over the period 2025 through 2028, with a target of reaching $2,000,000.
• As the new threshold took effect on April 1, 2026, the effective tax-free amount for the full twelve months of 2026 is $1,876,614.
• The second phase of planned increases has raised the periodic tax-free threshold for both employed and self-employed individuals to $36,583.85 weekly, $73,234.90 fortnightly, and $158,530 monthly.
• The phased increase of the personal income tax threshold to $2 million is designed to be a responsible fiscal adjustment, rather than a single massive hit to the budget, in light of the adverse effects of Hurricane Melissa on revenues and the need to increase expenditure to support rebuilding.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• President Irfaan Ali has confirmed that his administration intends to engage the Government of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) directly on a potential collaboration that would see Guyana’s crude oil refined in the twin-island state. The prospect of Guyanese crude being refined in Trinidad and Tobago has emerged as a key element of an energy strategy outlined by Ali during a recent visit.
• Discussions around Guyana supplying crude to support the restart of Trinidad’s idle refining capacity have gained traction in recent months. The country’s Energy Minister, Dr Roodal Moonilal, indicated that while attending a conference in Guyana back in February, he pointed out that the country could play a key part in the restart of the refinery.
• The minister had disclosed that the facility can process about 150,000 barrels of oil daily but will require petroleum from regional partners. At the same event, Guyana’s Minister of Natural Resources, Vickram Bharrat, disclosed that the two CARICOM states are already in discussion to look at the possibility of having that refinery restart.
• Speaking to the Sunday Business Guardian, Ali framed this integration as a non-negotiable response to a shifting global market. He argued that the era of hesitation must end, as the economic cost of delay grows increasingly steep, calling for a disciplined, private-sector-led integration of cross-border gas and refinery assets.
• Central to this blueprint is the potential reactivation of T&T’s idle refining capacity to process Guyanese crude. Ali confirmed he is prepared to engage the T&T Government directly to discuss a strategy that would see Guyanese light sweet crude flow into Trinidadian refineries, effectively turning a legacy industrial burden into a regional asset.
• Overall, Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026. T&T also benefits intermittently from gas-related activity, but with a more mature production profile and without the scale of expansion seen in Guyana. T&T’s economy is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, but the World Bank suggests this will rise in 2027, with real GDP growth of 3.2%, on the back of energy growth prospects. Guyana is also expected to continue to see rapid growth of 16.3% and 23.5% in 2026 and 2027.

(Source: Kaieteur News, Guardian T&T)

• Chevron has signed two key agreements to expand operations at Venezuela's vast Orinoco Belt, including an asset swap adding an extra heavy crude area to its main project while returning an offshore gas field and a small crude area.
• The agreements are among the first big expansion deals since the United States (U.S.) launched a $100Bn reconstruction plan for Venezuela's energy sector after capturing President Nicolas Maduro, and a sweeping reform of the country's main oil law was approved in January, encouraging foreign investment.
• The pacts, expected to allow ⁠ the U.S. major to boost crude output and participation at the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) main oil region, were signed by company executives led by Javier La Rosa, head of Chevron's Base Assets and Emerging Countries, and officials from state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A (PDVSA) in the presence of acting President Delcy Rodriguez.
• The deals include the increase of Chevron's stake at one of its joint ventures with PDVSA in the Orinoco, Petroindependencia, to 49% from a previous 35.8%. The company also agreed to relinquish two gas blocks that include the coveted Loran offshore field and its stake at a small oil project in western Venezuela, while receiving a new oil area, Ayacucho 8, as part of its existing Petropiar project, also in the Orinoco, the company's largest.
• The deals give Chevron, PDVSA's main joint ⁠ venture partner, a strong foothold to expand heavy oil projects in the country amid expected increased competition with foreign companies. Chevron's asset swap with PDVSA and its subsidiaries is "a mutually beneficial agreement, which will consolidate all parties' focus on strategic assets in the country," the company said in a release after the event.
• Given these changes, Chevron could increase output in Venezuela by about 50% in the next ⁠ two years within its existing footprint. The company's joint ventures with PDVSA are producing 260,000 barrels per day of crude, about a fourth of the country's total output. The agreements will allow Venezuela and Chevron "to progress to increase output and secure revenue for the benefit of the people," ⁠ Rodriguez said during the broadcast event.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on April 14, 2026, titled "Global Economy in the Shadow of War". It warned that the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026 has significantly threatened global economic momentum.
• Under the IMF's reference forecast¹, global growth is projected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. This is down from 3.4% in 2024-25 and well below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000-2019. The forecast for 2026 is revised downward by 0.2 percentage points and that for 2027 is unchanged, compared with those in the January 2026 WEO Update.
• Additionally, global headline inflation is expected to increase to 4.4% in 2026 and decline to 3.7% in 2027, marking upward revisions for both years.
• Absent the war, global growth would have been revised upward. Forecasts based on pre-conflict assumptions would have shown a slight upward revision of 2026 growth relative to that forecasted in the January WEO Update, by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%. Hence, the downward revision for 2026 largely reflects the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East, partly offset by carryover from recent strong data and reduced tariff rates.
• The impact is far from equal across countries. Emerging markets and developing economies face a 0.3 percentage point downward revision to growth, while advanced economies are largely unchanged. The impact on commodity-importing developing nations with pre-existing financial fragilities is described as being much more pronounced".
• In a severe scenario where energy infrastructure in the conflict region suffers significant damage, global growth could collapse to 2.0% in 2026 with inflation rising above 6.0% by 2027. The blow to emerging and developing economies would be nearly twice that felt by advanced economies.
• The IMF called on central banks to remain vigilant against supply shocks destabilising inflation expectations. Governments are being urged to keep any fiscal support targeted and temporary, while countries should cooperate to restore stability in international trade and economic relations.

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¹This assumes the war will be short-lived and disruptions will fade by mid-2026.

(Source: IMF)

• A second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations is under discussion but not yet officially scheduled, according to a White House official. President Trump later told the New York Post the next talks "could be happening over next two days" in Islamabad, Pakistan, after initially suggesting they would be slow and be held in Europe.
• The push for renewed talks follows a weekend of stalled negotiations in Islamabad that ended without a deal, with key sticking points over Iran's nuclear ambitions left unresolved and both sides accusing the other of shifting the goalposts.
• Vice President JD Vance, who led the U.S. delegation alongside special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, said Monday that "the ball is in the Iranian court," while top Iranian officials accused the U.S. of acting in bad faith.
• Despite the mounting tensions, hopes for a deal remain alive. Oil prices fell, and stocks rose on Tuesday morning on reports that negotiations could restart before the fragile two-week ceasefire expires on April 21.

(Source: CNBC)

• Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, has formally called for the creation of a dedicated Caribbean Tourism Bank. He’s urging the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to champion a region-specific financial institution that can develop tailored products and financing solutions to meet the unique needs of the Caribbean tourism sector.
• He made the call during remarks at a luncheon hosted in his honour, following his meeting with members of the IDB Board of Directors in Washington DC.
• Addressing senior development finance officials, Minister Bartlett argued that the Caribbean has long suffered from the absence of an investment framework tailored to tourism – an industry he described as “the world’s fastest and most immediately convertible economic activity”. “We think that the time has come for a regional financial institution dedicated to tourism in the Caribbean… a Tourism Bank where products can be crafted and developed, that are responsive to tourism’s demands and supply dynamics,” he stated.
• Bartlett used the occasion to highlight what he described as a persistent ambivalence towards tourism investment in the Caribbean – an outlook he linked partly to historical and psychological legacies that have obscured the sector’s true economic power.
• He further underscored tourism’s proven role as a catalyst for community development, pointing to the visible transformation of townships across Jamaica and the wider Caribbean where tourist activity has brought roads, water, electricity, and economic opportunities to communities that once lacked such infrastructure.
• In urging the IDB to take a leadership role in advancing the Tourism Bank concept, Mr. Bartlett noted that the institution’s regional presence, capital base, and development mandate uniquely position it to partner with Caribbean governments in building the financial architecture the sector needs.
• The call aligns with Jamaica’s broader advocacy for stronger regional financial institutions and underscores the country’s leadership in global discussions on tourism resilience, particularly in the wake of Hurricane Melissa’s devastating impact on Jamaica’s western parishes in 2025 and the sector’s remarkable recovery heading into 2026

(Source: Reuters)

• On April 8, 2026, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) raised its long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Aruba to 'A-' from 'BBB+' and affirmed its 'A-2' short-term rating. The transfer and convertibility assessment was revised to A- from BBB+. The outlook is stable.
• The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that Aruba’s fiscal discipline will underpin a continued decrease in its net debt and interest burden amid a cooperative relationship with the Netherlands¹. Expectations that the tourism-concentrated economy will continue to grow over the next few years, supporting fiscal and external balances, also factored into the rating outlook.
• Aruba's growing economy and fiscal surpluses have supported continued debt repayments that, along with strong, growing public sector assets, improved the government’s fiscal profile and external position. The economy will continue to be dominated by the tourism sector, but capacity constraints will temper growth. S&P expects tourism-driven growth of 1.9% in 2026, down from 3.9% in 2025.
• Ongoing growth will lead to fiscal surpluses and will continue to support debt reduction. Of note, in 2025, Aruba posted a surplus of 3.6% of GDP and repaid debt of 140 million Aruban florins. The agency believes the government will continue to control its spending such that the average change in net general government debt over the next four years will be close to negative 2.2% of GDP, indicating debt will decrease over time.
• The country’s external position has improved in tandem with its economic and fiscal recovery since the pandemic. Aruba’s growing external pension assets and reduced external debt have contributed to a stronger narrow net external debt position, which will average 24% of current account payments. At the same time, tourism sector receipts will likely lead to ongoing current account surpluses of about 2.6% of GDP over the forecast horizon. These dynamics will contribute to gross external financing needs remaining above 100% of current account receipts and usable reserves during the forecast horizon.
• That said, the sovereign is highly dependent on tourism, and this, together with its small size and low-lying elevation, makes its economy and debt vulnerable to external shocks, which was evident during the pandemic when debt rose substantially.
• Notwithstanding, these risks are mitigated by Aruba’s access to rapid funding provided by the Netherlands. This highlights the benefits it receives from its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, bolstering its political and institutional stability, policy predictability, and judicial certainty.

______________________________

¹Owing to its status as a member of the Kingdom of the Netherlands

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• Costa Rica, on Saturday, April 11, 2026, received the first group of migrants from other countries deported from the ​United States (U.S.) under an agreement signed in March between ‌the two countries.
• Costa Rica's General Directorate of Migration and Foreigners said the 25 migrants included citizens of Albania, Cameroon, China, Guatemala, Honduras, ​India, Kenya and Morocco. Under the agreement, Costa Rica will ​receive up to 25 people per week, while the United States will provide financial support, and the IOM (International Organisation for Migration) will offer food and accommodation during the ​first seven days of migrants' stay in the country.
• The agreement is ​part of U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to ramp up his mass deportation ‌program, ⁠including removing immigrants to third countries that are not their country of origin. The administration has said that such third-country deportations are necessary to remove people whose home countries refuse to accept ​them. But these deportations ​have faced criticism ⁠from Democrats and human rights advocates for stranding migrants in countries far from their homelands, where ​they often don't speak the language or have any ​family ⁠
• In February, Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee released a report that said the deportation agreements with foreign governments cost American taxpayers millions ⁠of ​dollars, at times more than $1Mn per ​person shipped out of the country, and produce little benefit.
• Furthermore, while the agreement may strengthen diplomatic ties with the United States, it could potentially weaken Costa Rica’s tourism-dependent economy and dampen broader economic growth if negative perceptions, media coverage, or social pressures reduce its appeal to international visitors.
• That said, this risk is set against a still-stable macroeconomic outlook, as BMI analysts forecast real GDP growth in Costa Rica of 3.9% for 2026, following a 4.6% expansion in 2025. This slight slowdown is more in line with the pre-pandemic long-term run rate of 3.8% real growth, suggesting a normalisation of growth rather than a sharp downturn.

(Sources: Reuters, NCBCM Research, BMI - A Fitch Solutions Company)

• President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, April 12, 2026, dimming hopes for a quick end to the conflict and escalating a standoff with Iran that has already triggered the worst energy shock in history. The blockade, which targets vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, took effect on Monday, April 13, 2026.
• Tanker traffic through the strait ground to a halt within hours of the announcement, reversing a gradual recovery seen after a two-week ceasefire, with at least two vessels turning back. Crude oil surged as investors scrambled to price in tighter supply, with US WTI futures rising more than 8% and Brent crude over 7% to $101.86.
• Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the flow has since slowed to a trickle, upending supply chains for oil, fertilisers, apparel and industrial goods. Analysts have warned that clearing the backlog could take weeks even after a resolution.
• A full blockade would further tighten the squeeze on global supply, with analysts warning oil prices could rise to around $150 per barrel. Commodity prices for fertiliser and helium, critical inputs for food production and semiconductor manufacturing, are likely to keep climbing, fanning inflation that is already accelerating.
• The blockade risks drawing major economies into the conflict, particularly China and India, as a blanket ban on tankers carrying Iranian crude threatens to cut off supply flows. Further, it could potentially reignite geopolitical tensions and expose countries with safe-passage arrangements to the crossfire.
• While some analysts view the blockade as a negotiating tactic within ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, others warn it carries significant downside risks, including military escalation, legal challenges under international law, and prolonged supply disruptions, with the potential to trigger an energy shock comparable to or worse than the 1970s oil crisis.

(Source: CNBC)