• The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred forecasting tool, increased by a seasonally adjusted monthly gain of 0.2%, lifting the year-over-year rate to 3.7%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported. Each of those headline figures came in 0.1 percentage point ahead of the Dow Jones consensus.
• When food and energy prices are stripped out, the core PCE index advanced 0.2% monthly and 3.3% on an annual basis, in line with forecasts. While the Fed considers both measures, core inflation is widely regarded within the central bank as a more useful guide to where prices are headed over time.
• Consumer spending rose $36.3Bn, or 0.2%, in July, according to the BEA. The increase reflected an $86.2Bn gain in spending on services that was partly offset by a $49.9Bn decline in spending on goods. Personal income also climbed $115.1Bn, or 0.4%, for the month. Disposable personal income rose 0.5%, and the personal saving rate came in at 3.0%, attributing the income gains primarily to increases in compensation, government social benefits, and personal income receipts on assets.
• The report comes with Fed officials weighing their next policy move as inflation, despite generally soft monthly readings this summer, is still well above the central bank’s 2% goal. With the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee not meeting formally in August, officials have a bit of a respite before deciding their next gathering on Sept. 15-16.
• Markets are pricing in only about a 1 in 3 probability of a move then, with the best chance for a rate hike coming in December. Since taking office in May, Warsh has been circumspect about where he sees policy heading, instead preferring that markets set the tone.
• Government bond yields have been on the rise lately. Both the 10- and 30-year Treasurys recently saw yields hit their highest levels since 2007, just before the global financial crisis. The surge has come from a variety of factors, including investors’ concern about the Fed’s commitment to its inflation target as well as debt and deficit issues with the federal budget.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent a week ago announced an initiative in which his department would step up its buybacks of government debt. However, market participants have expressed doubt about whether the move will have a meaningful impact on yields.

(Sources: Yahoo Finance and CNBC)

• Iran has held new talks with neighbouring Oman on management of the Strait of Hormuz, blockaded over nearly six months of conflict, with Oman's foreign minister saying he was hopeful a temporary corridor through the waterway could be announced soon.
• Iran and Oman have held on-and-off talks for weeks about controlling traffic through the strait, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war began in February.
• Most shipping has since been shut down, as Iran and the U.S. have tried to assert control over the strategic channel, imposing separate blockades.
• Iran and Oman said on Tuesday that they discussed "a joint temporary navigational corridor" through the strait and agreed to clear it of mines.
• "I am hopeful we will soon announce a temporary corridor for the Strait of Hormuz and practical arrangements to restore safe navigation," Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi posted on X following talks with his Iranian counterpart.
• S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to bomb Oman, repeated an earlier assertion that all mines in the strait had been cleared, and warned Iran against trying to lay any more.

(Source: MSN)

• Releases from Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) listed companies saw a mix of developments, spanning dividend announcements, refinancing activity, financial reporting delays and corporate transactions during the week. Several listed companies provided updates on distributions, capital management and strategic developments.
• Dividend activity remained in focus, with Stationery & Office Supplies Limited (SOS) declaring a dividend of $0.02 per ordinary stock unit, payable on September 29, 2026, to shareholders on record as of September 14, 2026. Sagicor Group Jamaica Limited (SJ), meanwhile, announced that its Board will meet on September 4, 2026, to consider the payment of a first interim dividend for the 2026 financial year.
• Digitalisation of shareholder payment processes continues to be a theme, with Sygnus Credit Investments Limited (SCI) and Sygnus Real Estate Finance Limited (SRF) announcing plans to transition from cheque-based dividend payments to electronic direct deposits effective January 1, 2027. Both companies encouraged shareholders to submit their direct deposit instructions ahead of the transition to avoid interruptions to dividend payments.
• Refinancing activity was also in focus, with Mayberry Jamaican Equities Limited (MJE) announcing changes to two of its bond tranches as part of plans to refinance through a new public bond offering. The company will redeem its MJE 8.75% 2026 Fixed Rate bonds ahead of their October maturity date, while trading in the MJE 10.00% 2026 Fixed Rate bonds will be suspended. The securities are to be delisted effective August 26, 2026, as part of the refinancing process.
• Beyond dividends and refinancing, there was also an update on delayed financial reporting. Mailpac Group Limited (MAILPAC) advised that publication of its annual report for the year ended December 31, 2025, has been further delayed, with the company now expecting to release the report on or before August 28, 2026.
• Meanwhile, MFS Capital Partners Limited (MFS) announced that it completed its acquisition of Century Business Machines Limited (CBM), acquiring 100% of the company’s issued share capital and making CBM a wholly owned subsidiary. Management noted that the acquisition supports MFS’s strategy to diversify its product offerings, expand its operations and strengthen the growth of its balance sheet. Through CBM, MFS broadens its product offering to include office supplies, technology solutions and office furniture, while gaining access to an established corporate customer base.
• The transaction also presents potential cost synergies through the consolidation of shared functions such as financial control, human resources and marketing, which could reduce duplicated overhead and improve operating efficiency. However, the extent to which the acquisition creates value will depend on MFS’s ability to successfully integrate CBM, realise these synergies and translate the enlarged revenue base into stronger earnings and returns for shareholders.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Bahamas’ total public-sector debt surged by nearly $1.28Bn over the past fiscal year, driven partly by substantial borrowing linked to the government’s acquisition of the Grand Bahama Power Company and increased financing across state-owned enterprises.
• According to the Ministry of Finance’s Public Debt Statistical Bulletin for the 2025/2026 fiscal year, total public-sector debt stood at an estimated $14.70Bn at the end of June 2026. This represented an increase of $1.276Bn, or 9.5%, compared with the $13.42Bn recorded at the end of June 2025.
• Central government’s net financing activities accounted for 54.6% of the increase, while government agencies and government business enterprises accounted for the remaining 45.4%. The report revealed that the outstanding debt of agencies and government business enterprises climbed by $579.1Mn, or 35.1%, to $2.230Bn during the period, with a significant portion of that increase connected to Grand Bahama’s energy-sector overhaul.
• The Grand Bahama Energy Company (GBEC), the special-purpose vehicle established to acquire the Grand Bahama Power Company (GBPC), obtained $150Mn in external financing towards the purchase. GBEC secured another $50Mn from a domestic financial institution, bringing the financing associated with the share purchase to $200Mn.
• The company also obtained an $80Mn loan facility to support GBPC’s capital expenditure and working-capital requirements. The debt bulletin further revealed that approximately $131.8Mn represented legacy commercial debt held by GBPC when it was acquired, with some 83.3 % of that debt denominated in Bahamian dollars and the remaining 16.7% in foreign currency.
• The GBPC-related facilities were among the major factors contributing to the sharp rise in government-guaranteed debt. Total debt guaranteed by the government more than doubled during the fiscal year, increasing by $373.4Mn, or 113.2%, to $703.4Mn at the end of June, and around 98.7% of the government’s guaranteed exposure was tied to government agencies and business enterprises. GBEC accounted for $280.0Mn in newly guaranteed facilities.
• Meanwhile, central government debt increased by $696.9Mn, or 5.9%, to $12.466 Bn. Despite the increase in the nominal debt stock, the central government’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined marginally to 70.7% from 70.9% a year earlier, a reduction the Ministry of Finance attributed to the pace of economic growth relative to net new borrowing.
• Public-sector debt-service payments, including refinancing operations, totalled $3.341Bn, a $1.741Bn, or 34.3%, decline from the previous year, when costs were elevated by the government’s external bond liability-management exercise. Interest payments stood at $731.3Mn, while principal repayments amounted to $2.610Bn.

(Source: Tribune 242)

• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed optimism she can reach a trade deal with Donald Trump as her chief negotiator leads talks in Washington, just after negotiations between the United States and Canada collapsed. “As President Trump said, we hope to reach an agreement with the U.S.,” she told reporters on Monday after being asked about the escalating U.S.-Canada impasse. “I’m optimistic an agreement can be reached.”
• Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, Sheinbaum’s top trade negotiator, will remain in Washington for several days as he seeks to lower 50% U.S. tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum, and 25% duties on automobiles. The six-year-old CUSMA trade pact includes the U.S., Mexico and Canada, and last month it formally entered a phase of annual reviews as separate bilateral negotiations also take place.
• Washington’s negotiations with Ottawa fell apart in recent days, prompting Trump to say he’ll double tariffs on Canadian automobiles and parts starting next year. The breakdown also triggered a 50% U.S. levy on about US$20 Bn of Canadian goods, while Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliatory tariffs to take effect on Sept. 8. Like with Mexico, the current import duty on Canadian cars is 25% and applied only to the vehicles’ non-U.S. content, while imported steel also faces 50% levies.
• The collapse of the U.S.-Canada talks might create an opening for Sheinbaum, according to Jimena Zúñiga, Latin America Geoeconomics Analyst with Bloomberg Economics. “The breakdown in U.S.-Canada talks could strengthen Mexico’s hand in its own negotiations with Washington. The U.S. may be reluctant to open a second major front with another key trade partner, especially given the risk of higher prices ahead of the midterm elections,” she wrote in a research note.

(Source: Financial Post)

• Canada hit back on Tuesday with retaliatory tariffs on about $20Bn worth of U.S. annual imports and rolled out aid for businesses and workers, matching Washington's latest duties dollar-for-dollar.
• The counter-tariffs on U.S. goods take effect on September 8 and impose duties of 15%, 25% and 50% across around 700 products imported from south of ​the border, a government statement said.
• "Our dollar-for-dollar, rate-for-rate counter-tariffs as well as a multi-billion ​dollar support package will protect workers, farmers, families, and businesses," Canada's Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said.
• Canada levied the 50% tariffs on steel, aluminium, furniture and clothing, set the 25% tariffs on cheese, appliances and some seafood, and placed the 15% tariffs on electronics and tools, a Canadian government official told reporters.
• Trump's new tariffs are relatively narrow, affecting roughly 5% of Canada's ​exports to the United States. But trade analysts say they could have severe, concentrated effects on some sectors that are already struggling, like ​wood products, particularly kitchen cabinet makers.

(Source: Reuters)

• China has said that it would safeguard its interests after Washington unveiled new measures while laying out plans for the “economic asphyxiation” of Beijing’s economic partner Iran.
• Speaking at a regular news briefing in Beijing on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian rejected Washington’s expanding pressure campaign, calling for an immediate end to unilateral measures.
• “Cooperation between China and Iran has always been conducted within the framework of international law and should not be interfered with or disrupted,” Lin said. “China has already stated many times that it firmly opposes illegal unilateral sanctions … China will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its own rights and interests.”
• Washington also expanded secondary sanctions threats, urging governments worldwide to join its economic campaign. Asked on Monday whether Chinese banks would be targeted by the new penalties, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “No one is above the reach of US sanctions.”
• China has advocated for a ceasefire, insisting US sanctions will not resolve the conflict. Beijing remains a key customer for Iranian oil and is directly affected by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Iran has weathered sanctions for decades, using complex international financial networks to evade restrictions. Before the war, it continued to export millions of barrels of oil, mostly to China.

(Source: Aljazeera)

• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is expected to leave its policy rate at 5.50% through 2026, according to BMI. It sees the central bank maintaining a more accommodative monetary policy stance as the country continues to recover from Hurricane Melissa amid already muted domestic demand.
• While inflation has risen significantly in recent months, from 3.9% in January to 7.5% in July, this is largely a function of rising energy and commodity prices stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions, over which the BoJ's policy rate has little influence. Consequently, BMI expects the Bank to remain on the sidelines at its September meeting, opting instead to maintain a more accommodative stance as the country continues to rebuild, while deploying other tools to combat imported inflationary pressures.
• While headline and core inflation have risen in recent months, inflation expectations have remained encouragingly stable, falling 0.3 percentage points (pp) in June This indicates the ongoing credibility of the BoJ's monetary policy and its limited incentive to raise rates. The BoJ's decision to hold, despite acknowledging clear upside risks to its inflation forecast, implies a tolerance for supply-side price pressures, reinforcing the view that it will hold in the near term.
• The agency expects that the same factors that will cause the BOJ in September will cause it to stay on the sidelines through year-end. Instead, the agency forecasts that the central bank will deploy its ample foreign reserves to continue supporting the currency, which has appreciated 0.1% year-to-date and 0.8% since last August. It deems this an effective measure to counter rising import costs and mitigate international inflation pass-through.
• Looking ahead, inflation is expected to average 6.4% in 2026 and end the year at 6.2% before resuming its downward trend toward the midpoint of the BOJ's target range (5.0%) in 2027 as geopolitical tensions dissipate and international inflation pressures ease. However, continued fiscal expansion will likely exert moderate upward pressure on inflation as reconstruction and recovery efforts continue in the near and medium term.
• That said, risks to inflation and interest rate forecasts are tilted firmly to the upside. As noted by the BOJ, risks to the inflation outlook and to the interest rate path largely stem from ongoing uncertainty surrounding unresolved Middle East tensions, which have driven commodity prices higher and could push inflation up by more than currently expected. Additionally, while inflation expectations have remained stable, a substantial unmooring of these crucial indicators could prompt a rate hike by the BoJ in 2026 to keep expectations anchored.
• An additional domestic upside risk to inflation is the El Niño-induced drought currently affecting eastern parishes. While favourable rainfall patterns in several key agricultural parishes have partially mitigated the impact, prolonged dry conditions could constrain agricultural supply and place upward pressure on domestic food prices. This risk was not explicitly incorporated into BMI's assessment and could complicate the BoJ's efforts to distinguish between temporary supply-side pressures and more persistent inflationary pressures.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company and NCBCM Research)

• For June 2026, net remittance inflows to Jamaica increased by 9.3% year-over-year to US$292.8Mn, compared to 2.9% for June 2025, according to the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Remittance Bulletin. The increase reflects an 8.5% (US$24.5Mn) rise in total remittance inflows, mainly due to stronger flows through the Remittance Companies channel, supported by flows through the Other Remittances channel¹.
• For January to June 2026 (H1 2026), total remittance inflows to Jamaica amounted to US$1.78Bn, representing a 4.2% increase relative to the corresponding period of 2025. Jamaica’s growth trailed Guatemala (7.0%) and El Salvador (4.8%) but exceeded Mexico (3.2%).
• The United States remained the primary source market for remittances, accounting for 68.8% of total inflows in June 2026. This compares to 68.2% in June 2025. Other significant source markets were the United Kingdom (10.8%), Canada (9.3%) and the Cayman Islands (6.3%).
• Looking ahead, remittance inflows are expected to provide support to Jamaica’s external position. This will be particularly important as the BOJ expects the current account balance to deteriorate in the near term due to higher fuel and freight costs and increased imports associated with post-Hurricane Melissa rebuilding efforts. Additionally, healthy gross international reserves, which stood at US$6.7Bn as at July 2026, and a relatively stable foreign exchange market should provide some buffer against these external pressures.
• However, downside risks to remittance inflows remain, particularly from softer U.S. labour market conditions, given that the United States accounted for 68.8% of Jamaica’s remittance inflows in June. A sustained weakening in S. labour market conditions could temper migrant income growth and, consequently, remittance inflows to Jamaica.

_____________________

¹‘Other Remittances’ refers to any remittance activity occurring outside of traditional remittance companies, for example, transfers via deposit-taking institutions.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• The Export and Investment Centre of the Dominican Republic (ProDominicana) reported that Dominican exports reached a record US$9,277 million during the January-July 2026 period. The agency considered that this achievement represents a year-on-year growth of 12.5% and consolidates the positive performance of the national export sector. “This result is equivalent to an additional US$1,029.1 million compared to the same period in 2025 and constitutes the highest value recorded for the first seven months of the year,” it said in a press release.
• ProDominicana highlighted that products linked to the medical device sector exceeded US$1,435 million during that period, accounting for about 15.5% of total exports. Similarly, it specified that, excluding exports of raw gold, the remaining exportable supply grew by 5.1%. “Regarding the monthly performance, in July alone exports reached US$1,398.8 million, the highest value recorded for that month, with year-on-year growth of 2.2%,” the statement said.
• Vladimir Pimentel, executive director of ProDominicana, considered that “the dynamism recorded reaffirms the strength and potential of the Dominican exportable offer, as well as the ability of our companies and productive sectors to take advantage of the opportunities of international markets and continue expanding the presence of Dominican products abroad.”
• During those seven months of the year, growth was mainly driven by increases in exports of raw gold (an additional US$667.7 million); tobacco, totally or partially deveined (an additional US$105.4 million); and orthopedic items and appliances (an additional US$85.9 million).
• As for export regimes, free zones reached US$5,253.1 million during the January-July period, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% and a share of 56.6% of total exports. Likewise, the national regime¹ reached US$3,838.6 million, registering a year-on-year growth of 27.9%.
• “These results show the strength of the different components of the Dominican export sector. The growth of national exports, together with the sustained performance of the free zones, continues to strengthen the country’s ability to compete and generate new opportunities in international markets,” Pimentel said.
• As for the main destination markets, the United States remained the largest trading partner, with exports of US$682.0 million, representing year-on-year growth of 8.2%. Likewise, exports to Switzerland reached US$188.3 million, registering a year-on-year growth of 25,555.8%, while US$125.3 million were exported to Haiti, an increase of 12.3% compared to July 2025.
• In that period, 3,408 exporting companies placed the Dominican offer in 162 international markets, through 2,691 tariff lines, with exports from 28 provinces, reflecting the territorial, business and commercial scope of the national export activity.
• ProDominicana continues to promote a more competitive, diversified exportable offer with a greater international presence, promoting the internationalisation of Dominican companies and generating new opportunities for more of the country’s products and territories to participate in global markets.

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¹The "national regime" applies to standard, locally registered businesses subject to conventional tax and regulatory frameworks, distinguishing them from specialised, tax-exempt free trade zones.