• As the US-Iran conflict enters its fifth week, BMI Fitch has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 downward from 2.3% to 2.1%, while inflation is now projected to average 3% (up from 2.8% previously) and end the year at 2.8% (up from 2.4% previously).
• These forecast revisions stem from a shifted view of the conflict to an ‘Extend to End’ scenario, which entails up to another four weeks of high-intensity military operations without the conflict spiralling out of control. Consequently, the Brent crude price is forecast to average USD78/bbl in 2026 (up from USD70/bbl in the previous view).
• Higher Brent crude prices feed higher gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices, which all contribute to a higher inflation forecast for 2026. In this scenario, the inflation effect will persist for longer than previously forecast but still show signs of unwinding towards end-2026, leaving the end-year inflation forecast of 2.8% below the annual average (3%).
• The Federal Reserve is now expected to conduct 25bps of monetary policy easing in 2026, down from the previous forecast of 50bps, on account of higher inflation. Rate cuts are expected to pause for longer over worries of lingering inflation and raised inflation expectations, even after the conflict ends. In this scenario, conditions are still expected to merit one rate cut towards end-2026, as inflation moves toward its 2% target while unemployment remains elevated.
• GDP growth has been revised down as higher inflation from increased energy costs will further reduce private consumption and investment growth, amplified by less monetary policy easing. Despite higher oil prices, US oil investment is not expected to increase enough to outweigh the broader negative impact on economy-wide investment.
• Risks to the outlook have increased, with a 45% probability that the conflict shifts to a more damaging ‘Extend to Escalate’ scenario. This would likely increase inflation and reduce growth beyond current forecasts. For monetary policy, risks are two-sided: the Fed may not cut rates at all, or may even increase rates, if inflation risks intensify, but could still cut rates if employment risks rise sufficiently, particularly to avoid a recession.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Between March 25 and March 30, 2026, several companies listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) disclosed delays in publishing their December 2025 audited financial statements. December Audited financials are due by March 30^th, but their revised deadlines range from April 15 to May 15, 2026.
• Hurricane Melissa caused delays for related entities Caribbean Producers (Jamaica) Limited (CPJ), A.S. Bryden & Sons Holdings Limited (ASBH), and Seprod Limited (SEP). The delays originated at CPJ, where additional time was needed to complete its audit following the hurricane. With ASBH controlling (>75%) stake in CPJ and Seprod having a roughly 80% ownership of ASBH, completion of their audits relies on the completion of CPJ’s.
• Other companies like Stanley Motta Limited (SML), Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS), and FosRich Company Limited (FOSRICH) also announced delays. The companies cited that audit finalisation is ongoing. Similarly, Spur Tree Spices Jamaica Limited (SPURTREE) reported a delay in its ongoing audit finalisation processes, noting that additional time was needed for external auditors to complete their work.
• While the financial audits were delayed, management has communicated revised dates for submission, meaning shareholders will not be denied. Management at CPJ, ASBH and Sepord communicated that all its audits should be complete before May 15, 2026. SML, PBS and Fosrich have tighter schedules with audited financial statements now expected on or before April 30, 2026. Lastly, SPURTREE’s management indicated its audited financials are expected on or before April 15, 2026.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On March 30, 2026, Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited (KNTYR) disclosed on the JSE that it had completed a J$500Mn acquisition of a 170-acre property in Clarendon, marking a notable step in its asset-backed growth strategy. The site contains limestone, aggregates, river shingles, and potential gold-bearing geology, which the company plans to evaluate through structured technical studies.
• Rather than operating the quarry itself, Kintyre is in discussions with experienced overseas partners to manage operations, while it retains governance oversight and earns revenue through royalty-based arrangements.
• The Clarendon property, along with potential complementary projects such as housing or tourism developments, will be managed through Parallel Real Estate Ventures, Kintyre’s real estate arm that has driven recent growth. Parallel’s pipeline includes The Chalet at Bengal Beach, fully approved for 26 units, and recent acquisitions in Stony Hill and St. Catherine, reinforcing Kintyre’s focus on long-term, asset-backed value creation.
• Chairman, President, and CEO Tyrone Wilson emphasised the impact of Kintyre’s strategy, noting that the company’s holdings have grown by 651% to approximately J$1.72Bn. This growth occurred following its merger-and-acquisition¹ Wilson underscored the company’s focus on building a sustainable corporate brand, stating that crossing the US$10Mn asset threshold confirms that its strategic initiatives over the past two years are translating into real balance sheet strength.
• While Kintyre’s strategy has driven rapid balance sheet expansion through acquisitions and asset-backed investments, much of this growth appears early-stage, with assets not yet consistently translating into stable cash flows.
• At market close on Tuesday, March 30, 2026, Kntyr’s price was J$0.36, down 52.60% since the start of the year. At its current price, the company trades at a P/E of 1.80x, which is below the Junior Market Others Average Sector average of 24.4x.

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¹ Kintyre Holdings’ merger-and-acquisition restructuring involved its transition from iCreate Limited, a digital training and creative education company, into a holding company through a series of acquisitions and internal reorganization.

(Source: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On March 30, 2026, BMI (a Fitch Solutions Company) published its quarterly Costa Rica Country Risk Report, which assessed the economic and political risk profile of the sovereign. The report highlights political stability following the February 2026 election, a positive economic outlook, but noted risks including fiscal consolidation pressures, elevated exposure to US demand and rising crime.
• Costa Rica held its presidential election on February 1, 2026, with President-elect Laura Fernández taking office on May 8 with a working legislative majority of 31 out of 57 seats. This administration is expected to maintain broad policy continuity with the Chávez administration, particularly with regards to fiscal consolidation and a hardline approach to crime.
• On the economic front, Fitch noted tht following a strong post-pandemic recovery, Real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026. This is a moderation from 4.6% in 2025 toward the pre-pandemic trend of 3.8%, with private consumption and the manufacturing sector, which accounts for roughly 70.0% of total exports, remaining the primary drivers of activity.
• Meanwhile, despite progress in recent years, supported by a primary surplus of around 1.0% of GDP in 2025, fiscal consolidation is expected to stall in 2026 with the deficit widening slightly to 3.6% of GDP. This will result in a sharp slowdown in revenue growth. In 2025, total revenues grew just 0.8%. Moreover, spending remains highly rigid, with wages, transfers, and interest payments accounting for close to 90.0% of total expenditure. As a result, the pace of consolidation is expected to remain gradual, with the incoming Fernández administration signalling continuity with the current fiscal framework rather than introducing new measures to accelerate deficit reduction.
• The report also touched on expectations for Costa Rica’s monetary policy. The Central Bank of Costa Rica held its policy rate at 3.25% on March 26 despite market expectations for a cut and is forecast to deliver an additional 25 basis point reduction to 3.00% in the second half of 2026. This outlook is underpinned by rising global oil prices and resilient domestic activity, both of which limit the case for more aggressive easing. The Monthly Economic Activity Index expanded by 4.8% year-on-year in January 2026, supporting the growth outlook.
• Separately, its current account deficit is projected to widen modestly to 1.9% GDP from 1.6% in 2025. This expectation is driven by a growing goods trade deficit as import demand holds up and a stronger colón weighs on export competitiveness. This will be supported by a large services surplus and robust Foreign Direct Investment inflows, with gross international reserves at US$11.9Bn as of February 2026.
• Notwithstanding the positives, there are some key risks to Costa Rica’s economic outlook. This includes a heavy dependence on United States demand through exports and FDI, leaving the sovereign vulnerable to any slowdown from the U.S. Persistent colón strength, weighing on export competitiveness and rising crime, is also adversely impacting investor confidence. Finally, high public debt constrains fiscal flexibility, while longer-term structural bottlenecks in infrastructure and labour market productivity risk capping the economy's growth potential over the medium term.

(Sources: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Middle East crisis has driven a roughly 10.0% increase in daily ship transits through the Panama Canal above budgeted levels. Daily crossings totalled between 38 and 41 daily crossings over the past two weeks, compared to the planned 34 to 36, as vessels seek a safer and more cost-efficient alternative to disrupted Middle Eastern shipping routes.
• Deputy Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta highlighted the Canal's appeal in the current environment. He noted that it offers a safe, short route that provides better economies of scale at elevated fuel prices, reinforcing Panama's strategic value as a global maritime chokepoint during periods of geopolitical instability.
• The Liquefied Natural Gas segment, which pays the second-highest toll on the Canal after container ships in the Neopanamax locks, is showing signs of meaningful recovery following a post-Ukraine war decline. New reservations expected for April, represent a positive and timely revenue uplift for Canal finances.
• The Canal is currently running 10% above budget in both tonnage and revenue, though authorities noted it will be necessary to wait until the end of the fiscal year to fully measure the impact. For context, fiscal year 2025 Canal revenues reached US$5.71Bn, a 14.4% increase, with total transits of 13,404.
• For the Panamanian sovereign, this development is a meaningful near-term credit positive. Canal toll revenues are a critical pillar of government finances and fiscal consolidation efforts. Sustained above-budget traffic, if maintained through the second and third quarters of 2026, could provide meaningful relief to Panama's elevated fiscal deficit and partially offset the sovereign's ongoing refinancing pressures.

(Source: Newsroom Panama & NCBCM Research)

• The U.S. national average retail price of gasoline surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years on Monday, March 30, 2026, as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran continued to roil global energy markets. The $4 per gallon threshold, last reached in August 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, represents what analysts have described as a psychological barrier for consumers. Prices for a range of goods have been rising alongside crude oil, following Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global trade chokepoint.
• Surging fuel prices have begun to weigh on U.S. household finances, which were already under pressure from elevated living costs. The national average gasoline price has increased by approximately $1.06 per gallon, or 36%, since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran at the end of February. With crude oil prices continuing to climb, analysts warn that pump prices could rise further in the near term.
• According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, 55% of respondents said their household finances had been at least “somewhat” affected by higher gasoline prices, with 21% reporting that the impact had been felt “a great deal.”
• Notwithstanding these pressures, the administration has taken steps to assuage rising energy costs as the conflict has persisted, including a waiver of the Jones Act shipping law. The waiver temporarily allows foreign-flagged vessels to transport fuel, fertiliser and other goods between U.S. ports. However, industry participants expect the measure to have only a marginal impact on price increases.
• “The key issue is not simply crude oil itself. It is gasoline, the most visible price in the economy for consumers, and when that price jumps it hits psychology immediately,” said economist, Jeremy Siegel. “That matters, even if the broader economic effect is more balanced than the headlines.”

(Source: Reuters)

• US Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a wide-ranging talk at Harvard University, said on Monday, that he sees inflation expectations as grounded, despite rising energy prices, so the central bank does not need to respond with higher interest rates.
• In the near term, he said the proper move is to look beyond the short-term gyrations of the energy market and focus on the Fed’s goals of stable prices and low unemployment. “Inflation expectations do appear to be well anchored beyond the short term, but nonetheless, it’s something we will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here,” the US Fed Chair noted. Powell said he believes the current rate target, in a range between 3.5%-3.75%, is “a good place” for the Fed to sit as it observes events currently playing out, including the Iran war and the impact tariffs are having on prices.
• The comments appeared to register in financial markets, with traders no longer pricing in a significant chance of a rate hike this year. As recently as Friday morning, markets were looking at a higher than 50% probability of a quarter percentage point increase amid expectations the Fed would react to the surge in energy costs. However, the odds of a hike by December 2026 fell to 2.2% after Powell’s appearance.
• According to Powell, raising rates now could have negative effects on the economy later, noting that Fed rate moves have a lagged impact, so tightening here wouldn’t help the inflationary impact of the Iran war. “By the time the effects of a tightening in monetary policy take effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone… So the tendency is to look through any kind of a supply shock,” he added.

(Source: CNBC)

• The Producer Price Index for the Mining & Quarrying industry for February 2026 fell by 1.3%, while the index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 0.5%.
• The decline in the Mining & Quarrying industry was mainly due to a similar 1.3% fall in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’. Additionally, the PPI for the other major group, ‘Other Mining & Quarrying’, fell by 0.3%.
• The upward movement in the index for the Manufacturing industry was due to increases in the major groups ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’ (0.2%) and ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ (2.0%).
• For the period February 2025 – February 2026, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry fell by 30.8 %. This was due to a decline of 32.3% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• Reflecting a 3.2% increase in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’, the point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 1.9%. However, the overall point-to-point increase in the industry’s index was tempered by a 4.7% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’ which is in line with a 9.2% fall in oil prices on the world market in February 2026.
• The global bauxite market is currently experiencing significant oversupply, largely driven by record exports from Guinea, which has led to a nearly 50% drop in prices since January 2025. The PPI is likely to remain influenced by the further surplus in 2026, which could continue to weigh on prices in the Mining & Quarrying sector as demand for bauxite and alumina levels off, given China’s strict national ceiling of 45 million tons on primarily aluminium production.  However, the Guinean government has plans to intervene by implementing export restrictions by April 2026, which could offset these declines.
• In contrast, the Manufacturing index may experience upward pressure. With Brent crude surging past US$100/bbl following the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran and Iran’s restriction of access to the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which accounts for 70% of local power generation, has seen prices climb by 3.8% since the onset of the conflict, with further volatility expected
• Against this backdrop, the Manufacturing Index, particularly for Refined Petroleum Products, is projected to rise in March alongside electricity costs across all divisions. Ultimately, the rising cost of imported fuel and energy is poised to trigger a cost-push increase in producer prices across all manufacturing sub-groups.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• Governance upgrades are setting the tone this week, as companies continue to reinforce board independence and oversight. Image Plus Consultants Limited (IPCL) added two independent directors, while Sagicor Real Estate X Fund (XFUND) also expanded its board with a new appointment.
• Simultaneously, XFUND is evaluating a capital reduction to address negative retained earnings on its standalone accounts highlighting a more proactive approach to balance sheet management.
• Turning to shareholder returns, Sagicor Group Jamaica reinforced its commitment to shareholder value with the declaration of a final dividend of $0.89 per stock unit, payable in May 2026, resulting in a $6.95Bn total payment to shareholders over a 12-month period and a dividend yield of 4.2%, at its current price of $41.91.
• However, not all updates were as encouraging as reporting delays point to lingering compliance challenges for Spur Tree Spices Jamaica Limited and Stanley Motta Limited. Both companies indicated setbacks in finalising FY2025 audited financials and now expect them to be completed by April 15 and April 30, respectively.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Dominica on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, announced a series of measures aimed at cushioning the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit warned that rising oil prices and global supply disruptions could affect fuel, food costs, jobs, and overall economic stability, noting that while the island faces no direct military threat, it remains exposed to economic aftershocks.
• He warned that the most immediate concern for Dominica is a sharp increase in global oil prices, as the country imports all of its fuel, which will affect electricity costs, transportation, and the price of goods and services, alongside rising costs of imported food and essential supplies due to disruptions in global shipping routes and supply chains.
• The Prime Minister also cautioned that a slowdown in global travel and investment could affect tourism and capital inflows into the local economy, highlighting broader risks to economic activity beyond energy and trade channels.
• To mitigate these risks, Skerrit said the government will introduce targeted relief measures, including temporary reductions on duties and taxes for essential goods, expanded support for vulnerable households through social protection programmes, collaboration with Dominica Electricity Services to manage energy costs, and continued progress on the geothermal energy project in Laudat to reduce reliance on imported fuel and lower electricity costs over time.
• Additionally, the government will engage stakeholders across tourism, agriculture, and the private sector to protect jobs and maintain economic activity, while strengthening fiscal management by prioritising critical spending and deferring discretionary expenditures, with Skerrit urging citizens to remain calm despite potential pressure from rising prices.
• Dominica joins the Dominican Republic, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda and Guyana, which are among the Caribbean countries that have announced relief measures for its residents in recent weeks as the US-Israeli war on Iran has caused a sharp rise in energy prices.

(Sources: Caribbean News Weekly & NCBCM Research)