• Italy's energy producer Eni (ENI) on Tuesday, April 28, 2026, signed an agreement with Venezuela's oil ministry and state-run oil company, Venezuela Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), to relaunch a heavy crude project in the Orinoco Belt.
• PDVSA's key partners have been signing preliminary agreements to confirm interest or expand their oil and gas projects as the government progresses in a broad review of all contracts in the industry ⁠as part of an oil reform. U.S. Chevron, British Shell, and Spain's Repsol have also inked similar agreements to confirm or expand their partnerships in recent weeks.
• The pact with Eni was signed in Caracas in the presence of Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez, Eni's Chief Executive Claudio Descalzi, PDVSA's head Hector Obregon and Venezuela's oil ministry Paula Henao. The company's investment plan in the country is being drafted and should be completed by ⁠ year-end, Descalzi said.
• PDVSA and Eni, which has presence in the country since 1998, are partners in the Junin 5 project in the Orinoco, which holds ⁠ some 35-Bn barrels of certified oil in place, and in the Petrosucre project, where they produce crude in shallow waters. In 2025, Eni's production in Venezuela was 64,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• Eni also has a partnership with Spain's ⁠ Repsol for the large Cardon IV offshore gas project, which was also relaunched recently to increase gas supply for Venezuela, and another for methanol ⁠output in the South American country.
• The agreement between Eni and PDVSA signals a broader reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector to foreign investment, which could boost medium-term global oil supply, improve investor confidence as firms like Chevron and Shell re-engage, and strengthen Europe’s energy diversification efforts amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates steady on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, but in its most divided decision since 1992, noting rising concerns about inflation in a policy statement that drew three dissents from officials who no longer feel the U.S. Central Bank should ‌communicate a bias towards lowering borrowing costs.
• "Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices," the Fed said in its policy statement, a shift from previous language saying that inflation was just "somewhat" elevated. "Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook," it said.
• The 8-4 vote was the most divisive since October 6, 1992, and shows the breadth of opinion presumed incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will face in pursuing rate cuts that President Donald Trump says he expects from his chosen successor to Jerome Powell, whose term ⁠as central bank chief ends on May 15.
• Though the latest policy statement retained language about how the Fed would assess the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" to rates, a phrase that pointed to future cuts as the next likely move, three policymakers objected. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, while supportive of holding the policy rate steady in the current 3.50%-3.75% range, "did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time" and voted against the new statement.
• In a press conference held after the Fed meeting, Powell expressed that the Fed is well-positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to its policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks. He added, "Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis."
• With global oil prices lodged above $100 a barrel due to the U.S.-backed war against Iran, the Fed has been hard-pressed to determine if the impact is likely to be seen more through depressed growth or ‌higher inflation. This has ⁠kept the policy rate in the range where it has been since December despite repeated demands by Trump for looser monetary policy. Alongside elevated inflation, "the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months," while the economy continues to expand "at a solid pace," the Fed said.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Canada (BOC) kept its ​key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, as expected and expressed that any changes in the rate could be small if its projections ‌for the economy held true.
• However, Governor Tiff Macklem, citing uncertainty caused by the Middle East war and U.S. tariffs, said if oil prices stayed high and began pushing up inflation, it might have to respond with consecutive rate hikes. Macklem's comments marked the first time in recent years that he has been so specific about the path of interest rates. "If things ​evolve broadly in line with the outlook we have presented, and in particular, oil prices come down broadly in line with the futures ​curve, something close to the policy rate that we have today is probably about right," he said.
• The BOC noted that the ⁠overall effect of the war on Canada will be modest. High oil prices are set to benefit Canada by increasing export revenues, though squeezing businesses and consumers.
• Near-term inflation expectations have risen due to higher energy prices and elevated food prices, but long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. Inflation in ​April is expected to shoot up to about 3% from 2.4% in March, while averaging around 2.3% for this year. There is a risk that ​inflation expectations are not as well ⁠anchored as they were before COVID, Macklem said, noting public unhappiness when inflation spiked to 8.1% during the pandemic. Nevertheless, inflation is expected to fall back down to the ​2% target by early 2027.
• The BOC also lifted its 2026 growth forecast ​to 1.2% from the 1.1% it had predicted in January. However, economists and analysts are divided on the impact of higher crude oil prices on Canada, a net exporter. 
• Wednesday marked ​the central bank's first set of projections since the Iran war began on February 28, driving up crude and gasoline prices. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins, said ‌the BoC ⁠appears comfortable leaving rates unchanged for the rest of the year, unless oil prices remain high. Once the economy recovers, central bankers will raise the policy rate gradually to 2.75%, he said, predicting that would not be till 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• LASCO Financial Services Limited (LASF) has announced the appointment of Mrs Sharlene Williams as the company's new Managing Director, which took effect on January 1, 2026.
• In another executive change, Caribbean Assurance Brokers Limited (CARBROKERS) advised of the resignation of its Senior Manager of Employee Benefits, Ms. Michelle Harris, effective April 17, 2026. The company noted that the responsibilities of the Employee Benefits role continue to be managed seamlessly within the existing management structure while arrangements for the appointment of a successor are being finalised.
• Turning to shareholder returns, Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) and Seprod Limited declared interim ordinary dividends.
• SVL declared that a dividend of 22.89 cents per stock unit will be payable on Thursday, July 2, 2026, to all shareholders on record as of Thursday, May 7, 2026. The increase, which is 31.6% higher than the 17.39 cents paid around the same time last year, should contribute to a dividend yield of 5.6% using SVL’s $16.08 share price as of April 28, 2026, and dividends declared over the last 12 months. This, coupled with news of a 35.9% increase in Q1 earnings, could support increased demand for SVL shares.
• Meanwhile, Seprod declared a dividend payment of 605 cents per share to shareholders on record as at May 15, 2026. The payment, which will be on June 5, 2026, is on par with the amount paid at the same time last year. This declaration, plus other dividends declared over the last 12 months, contributes to a 2.3% dividend yield at its current price of $78.30.
• Year to date, SVL (-6.9%), Seprod (-6.7%) and LASF (-6.7%) saw their share prices decline, while CARBROKERS appreciated by 7.5%. LASF and CARBROKERS traded at P/Bs of 0.89x and 0.95x, respectively, which is above the 0.86x financial sector peer average. Meanwhile, SVL traded at a P/E of 20.82x, which is below the 25.00x media and entertainment peer average. Lastly, Seprod trades at a P/E of 16.04x, which is below the manufacturing and distribution sector average of 18.04x. All else equal, a multiple below peer averages suggests that the stock is trading at a discount, but it would depend on future growth expectations or business risk.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Following an official tour of Jamaica’s South Coast, Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, noted that stakeholders collaborated urgently to restore operations, protect local livelihoods, and reopen the region following Hurricane Melissa. Restoration efforts were swift, allowing destinations like Treasure Beach, YS Falls, and the Black River Safari to reopen alongside planned enhancements to the local infrastructure.
• The Ministry indicated that, concurrent with the rebuilding, further work will be done to upgrade and reimagine the area's overall tourism offerings.
• Specific sites such as the Appleton Estate, Pelican Bar, Lashings, and Jakes Hotel are operating following safety and infrastructure checks, supported by coordination between the Jamaica Tourist Board and local stakeholders.
• The resumption of operations in the South Coast supports Jamaica’s broader tourism diversification strategy and provides direct financial relief to local communities that were hit by Hurricane Melissa.
• The Director of Tourism, Donovan White, confirmed to global partners that the region's recovery demonstrates a commitment to sustainability and that the area is fully open for business. Travelers are now able to access the South Coast as well as other resort areas across the island, including Kingston, Montego Bay, and Negril.

(Source: Jamaica Tourist Board)

• Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, met on Monday, April 27, 2026, with Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley and invited her administration to invest in energy production in the South American country. Rodríguez's visit to Barbados marks her second official visit to a Caribbean island in recent weeks after visiting Grenada on April 9, 2026.
• Venezuela invited Barbados to invest in oil and gas exploration and to expand hydrocarbon production, with Rodríguez noting that the partnership could help provide energy security for Barbados.
• According to Mottley, Barbados currently faces a “very difficult time” for energy security, and as such, she welcomed the investment opportunity. “We want our cooperation to extend also beyond fossil fuels to … renewable energy,” Mottley said. Their meeting also included discussions on partnering in food production, boosting tourism, and improving trade.
• This initiative comes against a broader regional backdrop, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the ongoing Middle East conflict is deepening economic vulnerabilities across the Caribbean, particularly for energy-importing economies, with rising oil prices expected to increase fuel, transport, and food costs.
• While some commodity-exporting countries may benefit, most Caribbean economies face worsening external balances and tighter fiscal space, contributing to a more uneven regional outlook. As a result, energy security is becoming a central policy priority across the region, reinforcing the importance of partnerships such as the Venezuela–Barbados initiative.

(Sources: AP News & IMF)

• The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to grow by 2.2% on average in 2026, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• This represents a slight downward revision from the 2.3% estimated in December 2025, reflecting a more complex external environment characterised by greater geopolitical tensions, restrictive financial conditions and the resurgence of inflationary pressures.
• According to the United Nations regional economic commission, this reduced dynamism is expected to be widespread. Growth is seen decelerating in 24 of the region’s 33 countries, and accelerating in just 7, with the region having had four straight years of growth rates around 2.3%, revealing a pattern of low capacity for growth.
• The deterioration in the external scenario is driven by increased geopolitical tensions and the war in the Middle East, with the average price of oil in the first three weeks of April 74% higher than in December 2025. As a result, this has generated global inflationary pressures, raised production and transportation costs, and contributed to higher food prices and weaker international trade activity
• At the regional level, growth is constrained mainly by less dynamic private consumption. Investment shows signs of recovering but continues to be moderate in the majority of countries. Employment growth is estimated at around 1.1% in 2026, versus 1.5% in 2025, and inflation is topping 3% in 2026 compared with 2.4% in 2025.
• Subregional performance remains uneven. South America is seen growing by 2.4%, Central America by 2.2%, and the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean by 5.6% - driven largely by high growth in Guyana.
• Relevant risks remain, including the continuation of restrictive financial conditions, inflationary pressures from energy and food prices, volatility in international markets, vulnerability to external shocks, and weak domestic demand. Furthermore, structural challenges such as low trend growth and high exposure to external shocks continue to weigh on the region’s economic performance.

(Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean)

UAE to Leave OPEC in May as Iran War Reshapes Oil Market

• The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its wider alliance, dealing a blow to the group and its leader, Saudi Arabia. It comes at a time when the global oil industry grapples with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war. The UAE’s exit on May 1, 2026, after six decades of membership¹, is a significant loss for the group (see Figure 1), which has spent years balancing global oil markets and defending prices by managing crude supplies.
• The UAE said its decision would help it meet growing global energy demand in the long term after recent investments to boost its production capacity. The move is also the latest indication of how the war in Iran will reshape global energy markets for years to come. While the UAE has talked in the past about quitting OPEC amid longstanding tensions with Saudi Arabia, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move.
• “This is a decision that we took after a very careful and long review of all our strategies,” he said. “The decision is taken at the right time in our view because it’s not going to hugely impact the market: the market is undersupplied.” The UAE believes that the shortages caused by the war will require agility to respond to market demands without being constrained by the collective decision-making process of the wider group, he said.
• The departure follows years of tension with the leader of OPEC and neighbouring Saudi Arabia, both over oil output policy and competition for regional political influence. The two had clashed occasionally at OPEC+ meetings as the UAE sought to deploy new investments in oil production capacity, while Riyadh pressed the group to restrain supply. Such disagreements had brought Abu Dhabi to the brink of quitting OPEC before, though it never followed through.
• It also represents a win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has previously attacked OPEC for "ripping off the rest of the world". In January, he asked Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to "bring down the cost of oil" and doubled down on his threat to use tariffs.
• In the immediate future, though, the impact will likely be limited as war between the US and Iran throttles exports from the Persian Gulf, forcing the UAE, the Saudis, Iraq and others to slash production rather than increase it. Oil futures are trading near $111 a barrel in London.

_________________________________

¹The UAE joined in 1967, and its departure will leave the cartel with 11 members. There are an additional 10 non-Opec members in the wider Opec+ alliance.

(Sources: Bloomberg & BBC)

• Canada's federal government posted a smaller budget deficit than expected for the 2025/26 fiscal year and slightly trimmed its growth forecasts, painting a picture of modest fiscal improvement set against a deteriorating economic outlook shaped by US tariffs.
• The spring economic statement, released by the finance ministry on Tuesday, put the 2025/26 deficit at C$66.9Bn, less than the C$78.3Bn shortfall predicted in the November 2025 budget. Officials attributed the better outcome to a combination of spending discipline and higher revenues from crude oil sales, reflecting Canada's continued reliance on its energy sector as a fiscal backstop.
• Despite the headline improvement, the statement carried a cautious tone on growth. Real GDP is forecast to expand by just 1.1% in 2026, down from the 1.2% expected in November, and by 1.9% in 2027, trimmed from 2.0%. Forecasts for 2028 and 2029 were left at 1.9%, though the 2029 figure represented a downward revision from 2.0% previously.
• Real GDP is not expected to return to its pre-tariff trajectory and will remain approximately 1.6% below the level projected in the autumn 2024 outlook by 2029. That is a substantial permanent shortfall and reflects the scale of disruption that trade tensions with Washington have introduced into Canada's medium-term planning.
• Forward deficit projections were left largely intact. The ministry left its deficit forecasts for the next four fiscal years virtually unchanged from November, with the 2026/27 shortfall seen at C$65.3 Bn, 2027/28 at C$63.1Bn, 2028/29 at C$57.7Bn and 2029/30 at C$56.2 Bn. A figure for 2030/31 of C$53.2Bn was also released. The gradual narrowing reflects a slow consolidation path rather than any urgent push toward balance.
• On debt sustainability, the government offered some reassurance. The finance ministry also said the federal debt-to-GDP ⁠ratio in 2025/26 was 41.1%, compared to the 42.4% forecast in November. The ministry projects the ratio will rise only marginally to 41.8% in 2027/28 before stabilising, suggesting the debt burden is seen as broadly manageable even under the revised growth assumptions.

(Sources: Reuters & Investinglive)

• For the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of J$1.17Bn, a 141.0% deterioration relative to the J$486.35Mn loss in Q1 2025. Negative operating revenues, higher operating expenses, and the absence of joint venture earnings were the main drivers of the outturn.
• Operating revenues, which were negative (-$1.27Bn), were dragged down by net interest expenses and unrealised losses on investments in associates.
• Net interest expenses totalled $392.53Mn, as interest income, which is down 43.8% to $363.22Mn, was met by a 28.2% increase in interest expenses to $755.75Mn. Reduced market yields for structured notes translated into weaker interest income, while the higher interest expenses were due to growth in costs for corporate papers and notes.
• However, it was unrealised losses on its investments in associates totaling $1.55Bn that were the biggest contributor to the losses. This was marginally higher than the $1.54Bn reported for Q1 2025 and reflects price reductions for key securities in its portfolio. Its subsidiary Mayberry Jamaican Equities (MJE: -16.9%) and associate Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL: -5.3%) were likely major contributors.
• Higher operating expenses (OPEX), which rose 35.9%, compounded the losses. A 76.4% increase in other operating expenses, higher financing and carrying costs on investment positions at its wholly-owned subsidiary, Widebase, as well as increased overheads for technology modernisation, digital marketing, were the main contributors. An 18.2% increase in salaries and staff costs as the group added key talent to help pursue its strategic revenue pillars exacerbated losses.
• Lastly, the absence of profits from its joint venture also played a key role in the $1.17 Bn loss. In Q1 2025, MGL benefited from a $518Mn joint venture profit, which helped to keep losses at bay.
• MGL’s weak quarter reflects the difficult operating environment, characterised by still elevated interest rates and equity market volatility against the backdrop of a still weak economy post Hurricane Melissa and the risks to domestic inflation from the external environment, which are likely to continue to keep equity markets depressed.
• That said, management is deploying its broader strategy to improve performance, which includes reducing balance sheet risk, broadening the revenue base, and building a more durable earnings foundation. Moreover, if SVL, whose Q1 2026 earnings were strong (+35.9%), sees a sustained rebound in performance, its stock price may rebound and contribute to an eventual reversal in MGL’s unrealised losses on investments in associates.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, MGL’s stock price closed at J$6.34, reflecting a 14.7% year-to-date decline. At this price, MGL trades at a P/B of 0.63x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.07x.

(Source: Mayberry Group Limited & NCBCM Research)