• U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday, August 3, 2026, that talks with Iran were underway, warning that it was a “last chance” for Tehran to sign a deal to end the five-month-old war. However, Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place or that any meetings were planned.
• According to Trump, the talks were being held at the request of Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. His comments followed his decision over the weekend to call off what he described as “massive attacks” on Iran, repeating a pattern of threatening military action before stepping back.
• However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said no negotiations with the United States were taking place and no meetings were scheduled. According to Tehran, the only talks underway were with Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains a central point of contention. Washington says the June memorandum required Iran to reopen the waterway, while Tehran maintains that the agreement preserved its authority over shipping traffic. Trump also repeated that the U.S. Navy had total control over the Strait.
• Oil prices dropped sharply after Trump cancelled the planned attack, easing fears of a further disruption to Gulf supplies. Brent crude fell by about 7% to US$83.77 per barrel, while WTI declined to around US$80.34. Oil's sharp fall also sent the cost of government borrowing lower on Monday over hopes that it would ease inflation.
• Despite the fall in prices, risks to oil supply remain. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to face disruption, while threats from Yemen’s Houthi rebels have caused some Saudi and Russian tankers to alter their routes.
• The contradictory statements from Washington and Tehran suggest there is little prospect for a diplomatic resolution anytime soon. While the cancellation of the planned attack reduced the immediate risk premium in oil prices, continued shipping disruptions and uncertainty over whether talks are actually taking place could keep markets volatile.

(Sources: Reuters & Bloomberg)

• U.S. oil exports fell to 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) in July, the lowest level in eight months, as a short-lived peace deal between the U.S. and Iran in June briefly flooded markets with Middle Eastern oil and diminished demand for American crude abroad. Earlier this year, U.S. exports surged to a record 5.7 million bpd in May after the war in Iran disrupted Middle Eastern supplies.
• The June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran briefly allowed stuck tankers to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing oil supply to global markets. During the peace deal period, the number of tankers exiting the Strait peaked at 42 per day, contributing to a steady decline in U.S. exports.
• The share of U.S. crude exports to Asia fell to 40% in July from 52% in June, as major buyers reduced purchases. Exports to Japan, the largest buyer in June and July, declined 67% to 324,000 bpd, while shipments to South Korea fell 39% to 474,000 bpd. Exports to Europe also declined to 1.7 million bpd, down from 2.5 million bpd in May.
• High refinery utilisation in the U.S. also kept barrels away from export markets. The four-week average refinery utilisation reached 96.3%, the highest since 2018, while crude oil inputs to refineries rose to their highest level in about seven years.
• Analysts expect exports to recover in August and September as the discount of WTI to Brent widened again, improving the competitiveness of U.S. crude. Export volumes are expected to exceed 4 million bpd, although they are unlikely to return to the record levels seen in April and May.
• The sharp decline in U.S. exports highlights how quickly global crude trade flows can shift as Middle Eastern supplies recover. However, analysts noted that U.S. exports could increase again if the conflict in the Middle East escalates, with the U.S. retaining export capacity of about 6 million bpd.

(Source: Reuters)

• GraceKennedy Limited (GK) reported net profit attributable to stockholders of $2.39Bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (Q2 2026), up 18.0% from $2.03Bn. A marginal rise in core revenues and higher other income, which countered expenses and a decline in share of profits from associates and Joint ventures, were the primary drivers of the growth in earnings.
• Core Q2 revenues edged up 1.8% to $45.61Bn. On a six-month basis, growth was supported by a 3.3% or $2.28Bn increase from its Food segment and a 9.6% or $1.85Bn jump from its Financial Services (FS) segment. Within FS, Banking & Investments revenues grew 12.1%, benefiting from loan book expansion at First Global Bank, stronger investment income and higher advisory fee income. Insurance revenues advanced 14.4% on growth in general insurance, motor insurance and group life and health insurance portfolios. In contrast, Money Services revenues fell 5.5%, reflecting ongoing shifts in market dynamics within the remittance business.
• Expenses grew more slowly (+1.2%) to $43.64Bn, owing to tight cost management across the Group and a 48.5% reduction in net impairment losses on financial assets to $106.0Mn. However, stronger investment gains meant other income surged 32.1% to $1.72Bn, which lifted profit from operations by 24.1% to $3.69Bn. Consequently, operating margins rose from 6.6% to 8.1%.
• Below the operating line, interest expense on non-financial services was broadly flat at $531.6Mn (+2.4%). Meanwhile, share of results of associates and joint ventures declined 8.7% to $226.5Mn and Taxation rose 35.6% to $1.12Bn, taking the effective tax rate to 31.0% from 28.0%.
• With the positive Q2 outturn, shareholder profits for the 6 months grew 11.8% to $4.75Bn. 6M revenue grew by 4.6% to $93.09Bn, while total expenses rose by 3.7% and share of results of associates and joint ventures slipped by 42.8% to $422.07Mn.
• Management also declared a third interim dividend of $0.70 per stock unit payable September 21, 2026. Consequently, GK’s dividend yield based on declarations over the last 12 month would be 3.4%.
• Looking ahead, management expects continued momentum in the Insurance and Banking & Investments segments supported by digital initiatives^[1] and a new core insurance platform to be rolled out later this year. The risks are largely demand and cost related. Meanwhile, pressure on consumer spending and increased price sensitivity in the domestic market, as higher inflation erodes disposable income, continue to weigh on food distribution. Supply chain constraints tied to geopolitical tensions and climate change are an immediate threat to input costs. Recovery at the Grace Foods Processors Meats factory in Westmoreland following Hurricane Melissa is also ongoing. Lastly, money Services revenue is still contracting on shifting market dynamics. This likely reflects the migration from traditional cash transfers to digital money transactions, which has prompted GK to expand its own digital offering. However, with that transition still incomplete, its cash-based remittance volumes remain exposed to competitive pressure, which may have led to the revenue decline.
• As at the close of trading on July 30^th, GK shares was J$75.65, a 5.8% year-to-date increase. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 10.13x, which is below the Main Market Conglomerate Average of 11.28x.

(Source: GraceKennedy Limited Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

^[1] Including First Global Bank's digital onboarding, loan automation and credit card approval solutions targeted for public launch by year end.

• For the second quarter ending June 2026 (Q2 2026), Supreme Ventures Limited’s (SVL’s) reported net profit attributable to stockholders was relatively flat at J$777.1Mn versus J$784.4Mn for Q2 2025. Higher finance costs and a higher tax charge absorbed an otherwise stronger operating performance.
• Q2 total gaming income advanced 4.8% or J$673.5Mn to J$14.67Bn, driven by its core segments. Sports betting grew 9.1% year-over-year on higher ticket sales, PIN codes rose 6.6%, and the lottery segment grew by 0.8% despite prize payouts exceeding 70% of sales.
• Direct costs rose at a slightly faster 5.0% to J$11.34Bn, leaving gross profit up 4.1% at J$3.34Bn. Q2 selling, general and administrative expenses were broadly flat at J$2.24Bn (+0.4%), despite continued business expansion. Combined with a 130.7% jump in other income to J$153.2Mn, this lifted Q2 operating profit 16.5% to J$1.30Bn and pushed the operating margin to 8.8% from 7.9%.
• However, below the operating line, finance costs increased 29.0% to J$270.0Mn in the quarter and 22.6% to J$526.8Mn for the six months, following a bond refinancing undertaken to support the Group's growth initiatives. Taxation was a larger drag, rising 95.7% to J$247.6Mn and taking the Q2 effective tax rate to 24.2% from 14.0%. Management expects finance costs to ease over the medium term as principal balances on the Group's amortising debt continue to decline.
• With Q2 earnings flat, 6M 2026 earnings grew 14.0% to J$1.48Bn. 6M Revenue grew 4.7% to J$29.14Bn, with management attributing the increase primarily to a J$580.19Mn rise in sports betting and a J$193.72Mn rise in lottery revenues. Direct costs rose 4.88% to $21.47Bn while operating expenses totalled J$4.54Bn (+2.19%) and finance costs were up 22.7% to 526.79Bn.
• Looking ahead, Supreme Ventures Fintech Limited (SVFL) has pulled forward the commercial launch of its Evo Cash digital wallet and Mastercard-backed prepaid card to the third quarter of 2026, from a previously anticipated year-end launch. The solution is being tested in the Bank of Jamaica's Regulatory Sandbox and targets Jamaica's unbanked and underserved communities. The Group is also expanding self-serve kiosks in select retail locations and has BOJ approval for an additional 10 remittance locations over the next month, taking its network to 55. Lastly, expansion in Ghana remains a potential major growth engine, which management expects to double local earnings if it can increase its market share from approximately 2.0% to 5.0%.
• Near-term risks are largely cost and consumer-related. Prize payouts above 70% and direct costs growing ahead of revenue leave gross margins thin, while the recovery from Hurricane Melissa, which struck in October 2025, is still in progress, with sales as at June 30, 2026 only 1.5% ahead of the prior year. Elevated finance costs and a normalising tax rate could also pressure margins in the near term.
• As at the close of trading on July 30^th, SVL shares were J$18.24, a 5.6% year-to-date increase. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 23.61x.

(Sources: Supreme Ventures Limited Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• According to the Central Bank of The Bahamas’ latest Financial Stability Report for December 2025, risks within the domestic financial sector remained well contained during 2025 and are expected to remain so in 2026. However, geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, along with ongoing global trade-policy uncertainty, have weakened the global economic outlook and slightly elevated near-term risks.
• Stability within the domestic financial system was supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers among systemically important institutions. It was also reinforced by improving balance-sheet strength and stronger coordination among key regulators through the Bahamas Financial Stability Council (BFSC).
• In its first full year of proceedings, the BFSC agreed to strengthen the analytical framework for financial stability. This included a sharper focus on interconnectedness across key sectors, climate and cybersecurity-related risks, and improved data coverage. The Central Bank and other council members will continue monitoring domestic and external risks to the financial system.
• Commercial banks maintained robust capital buffers and satisfactory provisioning levels in 2025. As a result, no new concerns arose regarding banking-sector stability. Although some interconnectedness exists among domestic banks, high capital and liquidity ratios helped mitigate related systemic risks.
• The credit union sector continued to perform strongly, supported by improved credit quality and overall balance-sheet indicators. Profitability declined marginally and average liquidity moderated, but capital adequacy remained above the international PEARLS benchmark. Performance in the insurance sector also improved, with stronger profitability across both life and non-life companies.
• No material risks emerged in the securities industry during 2025. Its low interconnectedness with the domestic banking and insurance sectors also limited potential spillovers. Nevertheless, geopolitical tensions, global trade-policy uncertainty, and emerging climate and cybersecurity risks will require continued monitoring.

(Source: The Nassau Guardian)

• Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T’s) liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to regional markets edged higher to 10.7 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2025, from 10.3 bcm in 2024. The increase followed two consecutive years of lower export volumes and reflected a modest recovery in domestic LNG production, even as competition in the global market continued to intensify.
• According to the Energy Institute’s 2026 Statistical Review of World Energy, South and Central America remained T&T’s largest regional market, receiving 4.57 bcm of LNG in 2025. Europe imported 3.23 bcm, followed by Asia-Pacific with 1.91 bcm, North America with 0.72 bcm and the Middle East and Africa with a combined 0.29 bcm.
• Europe became a larger market after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine disrupted pipeline gas supplies and increased demand for LNG. T&T benefited from its Atlantic Basin location and relatively short shipping distances, although European demand has since eased as gas storage recovered and buyers diversified their supply sources.
• Competition also intensified in 2025, with the United States exporting 147 bcm of LNG, up 27% year-over-year and equal to roughly one-quarter of global exports. The expansion of US Gulf Coast capacity has increased the supply of flexible cargoes available to buyers, giving importers more sourcing options and placing greater competitive pressure on established exporters, including T&T.
• Domestic LNG production improved during 2025 after several years of gas-supply constraints. However, output remains below historical levels, and the progress of projects such as Mento, Manatee and potentially Dragon will be important for sustaining Atlantic LNG production, supporting downstream industries and meeting domestic gas demand.
• The Middle East war disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening global supply and increasing demand for cargoes from other producing regions. This could create opportunities for T&T’s LNG sector, although domestic gas-supply constraints may limit its ability to increase production and exports.

(Sources: Trinidad and Tobago Guardian, IEA & Reuters)

• S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter amid a widening ​trade deficit, but robust consumer spending and business investment related to the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure underscored strong domestic demand.
• The moderation reported by the Commerce Department ‌in its snapshot of gross domestic product on Thursday also reflected continued inventory drawdown to meet the strong domestic demand. The report suggested the economy largely weathered the Middle East conflict last quarter, though renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran posed a downside risk to growth in the second half of the year.
• Generous tax refunds this year from President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," which helped to fuel consumer spending last quarter, are behind, leaving households without a ​cushion as gasoline prices resume their upward trend. With the saving rate at a four-year low, consumers are unlikely to continue dipping into savings to maintain their spending, adding to the ​economy's growing vulnerabilities, economists said.
• Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged at a 3.2% rate after abruptly slowing to a 0.5% growth pace in the January-March quarter.
• In addition to larger tax refunds, spending was boosted by higher-income households that are benefiting from strong growth in asset prices, but a recent ​stock market sell-off could slow the momentum. The recently ended FIFA World Cup tournament also likely added to the strength, as did midterm election-related spending by nonprofits.
• The AI investment boom, which is showing no ​signs of slowing despite investor concerns that valuations of many technology companies have become stretched, also helped to boost domestic demand. Business spending on equipment increased at a 15.2% pace, notching a second straight quarter of double-digit growth.

(Source: Reuters)

• At its meeting ending on 29 July 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75%. Three members voted to increase the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
• In response to events in the Middle East, crude and refined energy prices have remained volatile and higher than pre-conflict. The impact of the energy shock on the UK economy remains uncertain.
• Monetary policy cannot influence energy prices but is being set to ensure that the economic adjustment to them occurs in a way that achieves the 2% inflation target sustainably. The policy stance required to achieve this will depend on the scale and duration of the shock, and how it propagates through the economy, including via financial conditions.
• CPI inflation has fallen to 2.6% since the previous meeting, although it is expected to rise later this year as the effects of higher energy prices continue to pass through. The risk of material second-round effects in price and wage-setting, against which policy needs to lean, is greater the longer higher energy prices persist. There is little evidence so far to suggest such effects, and there have continued to be clear signs of underlying disinflation in recent data.
• Loose labour market conditions, and higher interest rates faced by households and businesses than before the conflict, will also act to reduce inflation over time. The Committee judges that the risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside relative to the central projection in the July Monetary Policy Report, but there remains scope for the outlook to change materially as events in the Middle East unfold.
• The Committee judges that it is appropriate to maintain the Bank Rate at this meeting. The Committee stands ready to act as necessary to ensure that CPI inflation remains on track to meet the 2% target in the medium term.

(Source: Bank of England)

• Caribbean Cement Company Limited (Carib Cement) posted consolidated net income of $2.70Bn for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 (Q2), nearly five times the $543.9Mn earned in Q2 2025. The swing largely reflects the absence of last year’s planned major maintenance shutdown. That shutdown had added approximately $920.0Mn in expenditure to the comparative quarter, mainly for excess consumables, hired manpower and imported cement used to keep the market supplied.
• Q2 revenues climbed 14.5% to $9.31Bn, supported by resilient market demand and a record second-quarter sales volume of 110,647 metric tonnes, the highest ever recorded for the period.
• With the shutdown costs not affecting this quarter, cost of sales fell 28.5% to $4.70Bn. Repairs and maintenance costs nearly halved to $462.9Mn, and raw materials and consumables dropped 48.9% to $491.7Mn. However, fuel and electricity almost doubled to $1.28Bn (+89.3%) and equipment hire rose 50.4% to $557.3Mn. Nevertheless, gross profit tripled to $4.60Bn from $1.55Bn, lifting the quarterly gross profit margin to 49.5% from 19.1% for Q2 2025.
• Operating expenses were essentially flat at $831.0Mn (+1.2%), while other expenses rose 11.4% to $344.6Mn on royalty and service fees of $271.5Mn (+27.0%) and $28.0Mn in manpower restructuring costs. Operating earnings therefore surged more than eight-fold to $3.45Bn from $421.5Mn. Financial expenses fell 35.0% to $33.9Mn, and a $44.4Mn foreign exchange gain provided support.
• That second-quarter surge built on an already strong Q1 2026 to deliver a stellar first half. The June quarter alone accounted for $2.70Bn, or 47.0%, of the $5.75Bn earned over the six months ended June 30, 2026, lifting six-month earnings by 126.4% relative to H1 2025. Management credited the outturn to improved operational efficiency, disciplined cost management and resilient market demand, and noted that the Company delivered its strongest EBITDA performance to date.
• Looking ahead, expanded capacity mixed with robust recovery-related demand is expected to underpin continued strong performance for Carib Cement. Fresh off its kiln expansion and supported by its quasi-monopoly position, the Company is well placed to capitalise on the anticipated rise in cement demand. This positions it to meet the increased demand from post Melissa related reconstruction activity, while maintaining sufficient inventory to expand its market share across CARICOM markets.
• The annual planned maintenance shutdown deferred from the first half is now expected in July 2026, with sufficient inventories in place to support uninterrupted supply. Consequently, third-quarter earnings should carry the associated repairs, consumables and hired-manpower costs that were absent in Q2, which could temper margins in the second half.
• Carib Cement’s outlook is not without risks. Rising fuel and energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions remain the principal threat to margins. Management has indicated that mitigation strategies are being implemented to contain potential margin pressures and preserve operational stability. Weather is the second pressure point. Heavy rainfall temporarily impacted production in April through challenges with raw materials and equipment. It could continue to disrupt output, although measures have since been introduced to stabilise affected equipment and improve operating conditions.
• As at the close of trading on July 29th, CCC shares closed at J$113.93, reflecting a 12.0% year-to-date increase. The stock has advanced 8.0% since July 27th, a move likely made in anticipation of the release of these financial statements. At this price, the shares trade at a P/E of 13.91x, which is below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector of 19.37x.

(Source: Caribbean Cement Company Limited Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Association of Free Zones (Adozona) expressed concern over the United States’ decision to impose a 12.5% tariff on imports from the Dominican Republic and 59 other countries, warning that the measure could create uncertainty in international trade and affect the competitiveness of export-driven economies.
• The organisation is evaluating the scope of the tariffs, possible exemptions, and their impact on Dominican exports, particularly on the free zone sector, which it described as a key partner of the United States in manufacturing, investment, and job creation.
• Adozona highlighted that Dominican free zones play a vital role in regional supply chains, especially in industries such as medical devices, advanced manufacturing, electronics, apparel, and services, helping strengthen U.S. production capacity.
• The association will continue working with Dominican authorities to maintain constructive dialogue with the United States aimed at preserving stable and mutually beneficial trade relations. It also reaffirmed its commitment to complying with national laws, international trade agreements, and high labour and sustainability standards while supporting efforts to protect the country’s competitiveness and investor confidence.
• The tariff is significant because the United States accounted for approximately 72.5% of Dominican free-zone exports in 2024. However, the sector is also closely integrated with US supply chains, with US intermediate inputs equivalent to around 51% of free-zone exports to the US. The eventual impact will therefore depend on product coverage and exemptions, particularly for major export industries such as medical devices, pharmaceuticals and electronics.

(Sources: Dominican Today & IMF)