• Oil prices plunged, and stock markets rebounded after President Donald Trump said the United States (U.S.) would hold off on strikes against Iranian power plants, citing "constructive" discussions about ending the conflict in the Middle East. The president wrote on social media that the two countries had held talks about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL" resolution, but Iran denied these talks had happened. The price of Brent crude sank, while European and U.S. shares rose following Trump's statement.
• Trump had previously said he would "obliterate" Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz shipping route was not reopened in 48 hours. Iran had said it would respond by targeting key infrastructure in the region. The comments over the weekend had rattled financial markets, adding to fears that the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran would be a prolonged conflict.
• At one point on Monday, March 23, 2026, the price of Brent had hit $113 a barrel, but it tumbled in the immediate aftermath of Trump's latest comments. Oil prices fell to a low of $96 a barrel before rebounding to $103. While oil fell, stocks rose. London's FTSE 100 index ended the day flat after being down more than 2% earlier on Monday. Germany's Dax index also rebounded to close 1.2% higher while France's Cac ended up roughly 0.9%. In the U.S., both the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones were up more than 1% at midday.
• Stocks in Asia, which closed before Trump's latest comments, had seen heavy falls with Japan's Nikkei index dropping 3.5% and South Korea's Kospi down 6.5%. Of note, Japan and South Korea have been particularly affected by the conflict, as they are heavily dependent on oil and gas that would normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked since the start of the war

(Source: BBC)

• Given the structural challenges facing the Canadian economy, BMI anticipates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will slow over the next decade to an average of 1.9% compared with 2.3% over 2010-2019. Easing trade uncertainty over the long term will support business investment and domestic demand, underpinned by shifts in government policy aimed at reducing the Canadian economy’s reliance on the United States (U.S.) market.
• Infrastructure upgrades announced as part of Budget 2025 should help to facilitate greater internal and cross-border trade by making it easier to bring goods to market. These upgrades are likely to do more for external trade than Prime Minister Mark Carney’s efforts to sign trade agreements with a variety of alternative partners. In contrast, proposed changes to interprovincial trade regulations are a more meaningful potential tailwind for domestic activity, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimating that current barriers are the equivalent of a 9% national tariff, costing the Canadian economy C$210Bn per year, or around 7% of GDP.
• Despite these positives, Canada faces several structural headwinds that dampen its longer-term growth outlook. Canada faces demographic challenges, as the proportion of people aged 65 and over rose from 12.6% in 2000 to 19.5% in 2025, with the dependency ratio increasing by 6.2 percentage points (pp) since 2000 to 52.7 in 2025. Furthermore, a more restrictive immigration policy is also contributing to a less favourable future demographic profile.
• The government has moved to reduce immigration to 'sustainable levels' with non‑permanent residents falling from 7.6% of the population in October 2024 to 6.8% in October 2025, with new restrictive immigration targets for temporary residents, as outlined in Budget 2025. Canada's population fell in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) by 0.2%, the only recorded quarterly population decline since 1946 (excluding Q4 2020), largely due to these policy changes. Moreover, productivity growth continues to disappoint. Between Q1 2023 and Q4 2025, US quarterly labour productivity growth averaged 2.5% y-o-y, compared to Canada’s nearly flat productivity growth, which averaged 0.12% over the same period. 
• That said, risks to the outlook are balanced. If the many economic policies being proposed and implemented by the current government result in a greater-than-expected boost in productivity, growth could exceed our expectations. Securing more favourable terms in current trade talks and in the 2026 United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) renegotiation would boost growth further. On the downside, if looser fiscal policy fuels higher inflation, monetary policy may need to turn more restrictive, creating a headwind to investment and longer‑term growth in 2026 and beyond. Furthermore, escalating global geopolitical tensions present downside risks to Canadian – and global – economic health.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• R.A. Williams Distributors Limited (RAWILL) posted net profits of $33.51Mn for the third quarter ended January 31, 2026 (Q3 FY2026), more than doubling the $14.17Mn earned in the prior quarter.
• Q3 revenues surged 23.2% to $541.94Mn compared to $438.90Mn in the corresponding quarter of the prior fiscal year. However, gross profits improved by just 5.4% to $215.12Mn owing to a 39.2% jump in direct costs.
• Nonetheless, driven by a significant reduction in administrative and general expenses, operating profit rose 85.0% to $52.87Mn. Administrative and general expenses fell 13.9% to $98.68Mn, which management attributed to its active drive to improve cost control, an area it outlined in Q2 would be the core focus.
• Despite the strong third quarter, it was insufficient to lift the company's 9-month figures. 9M net profit fell by 78.1% to $4.76Mn as revenue growth (+21.0%) was overrun by higher costs. Revenues grew 21.0% to $1,443.95Mn, but operating profit declined 25.9% to $60.61Mn. Higher, direct costs (+36.8%), operating expenses (+8.4%) and finance costs (+6.4%) all contributed to the weak nine-month performance and reinforce that cost containment will be critical to sustaining profit growth.
• On the revenue front, management has indicated continued focus on deepening market penetration, expanding into new therapeutic and wellness categories, and strengthening engagement with healthcare professionals across Jamaica.
• RA Williams is a pharmaceutical distributor and health solutions provider, distributing local and international pharmaceuticals to pharmacies and health institutions across Jamaica and the region. It was listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s Junior Market in August 2024. Its stock price has increased by 8.1% since the start of the year to close at $0.40 on Thursday, March 19, 2026.

(Sources: R.A. Williams Distribution Limited Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Tropical Battery Group has announced a landmark partnership with Wright Energy Storage Technologies (WEST), appointing Tropical Battery and its affiliate Kaya Energy as authorised resellers of WEST products across Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.
• The deal introduces WEST's Optimised Supercapacitor technology to the Caribbean – a carbon-based electrostatic storage system that differs fundamentally from traditional lithium-ion batteries. Key selling points include a 45-year design life, a 20-year warranty, 97.1% round-trip efficiency, and no risk of thermal runaway or fire.
• Tropical Battery CEO Alexander Melville said the technology is particularly suited to the Caribbean environment, noting that traditional battery chemistries often struggle with the region's high ambient temperatures and humidity. WEST modules are rated to operate from -40°C to +65°C without performance loss.
• WEST CEO Larry (Chip) Seibert said Tropical Battery's "deep roots in the Caribbean and commitment to renewable energy" made them the ideal partner to deploy the technology across the two markets. WEST currently operates across more than 35 countries and is headquartered in Manhattan, New York.
• The WEST partnership has the potential to meaningfully improve Tropical Battery's revenue. The 45-year design life and 20-year warranty of WEST modules position the company to pursue larger, longer-cycle commercial and industrial contracts that could help revenue growth.
• Ultimately, the success of the partnership would depend on Tropical Battery's ability to find customers willing to buy WEST's supercapacitor technology. Tropical would need to convince customers to trust and adopt a new product, even if it outperforms the lithium-ion batteries they're already familiar with. Effectively promoting specs, like the 45-year design life and 20-year warranty, will play a key role in achieving this.
• TROPICAL’s stock price has decreased by 13.2% since the start of the year to close at $1.38 on Thursday, March 19, 2026. At this current price, its P/E is 9.9x, below the Main Market Energy, Materials and Industrial average of 19.5x.

(Sources: JSE, Tropical Battery Group Ltd. & NCBCM Research)

• The rising world oil price and increased production are allowing Exxon Mobil Guyana to fast-track the recovery of all of the remaining exploration, production and other costs in the Stabroek Block this year rather than next year, company President Alistair Routledge said
• Currently, historic costs remain about US$5Bn out of an estimated US$40Bn cost bank. He said the current oil price of about US$100 per barrel would allow Exxon Mobil to “accelerate” cost bank recovery this year.
• “What we’re now seeing in this price environment is that it will accelerate. Now, we don’t forecast oil prices, but if you stay at the current oil price, then it will happen this year, based on the level of expenditure and the production that we anticipate. So that’s a significant acceleration,” he told a news conference. According to the top company official, Guyana was currently producing more than 900,000 barrels per day. Mr Routledge said the company began wiping out the accumulated cost bank over the past two years due mainly to higher production. Originally, the company had anticipated recovering historic costs in 2027, largely because of increasing volumes of production that is bringing in higher revenues to offset the ongoing expenditures, plus recover historic costs.
• The top Exxon Mobil official explained that the historic costs date back to 1999 when the contract with Guyana was signed and incurred. After the company began operations in 2019, he said revenue started coming in from 2020, “but at that point, we were still spending faster, and we were generating revenue.” Exxon Mobil says it is committed to spending up to US$60Bn in capital expenditure during the life of its operations in Guyana, apart from annual operating expenses amounting to billions of dollars.
• The Exxon Mobil-Guyana government Production Sharing Agreement allows for up to 75 % of gross revenues to be used to recover costs.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• Brazil's central bank began a long-awaited easing cycle on Wednesday, March 18, 2026, with a cautious 25-basis-point cut, while holding off on explicit guidance for next steps, as an oil shock tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran stoked global inflation fears. The bank's rate-setting committee, Copom, unanimously voted to lower the benchmark Selic rate to 14.75%, after five straight meetings holding it at 15%, the highest level since July 2006.
• Policymakers had signalled in January 2026 that borrowing costs could start to fall this month, but doubts mounted as the Middle East conflict widened, which Copom cited throughout its decision statement. The central bank acknowledged that the international environment has grown more uncertain and stressed that risks to its inflation outlook have intensified.
• Oil prices jumped above $100/bbl in recent sessions, roughly 60% more than the level assumed at the Brazilian central bank's January meeting. The shock prompted President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government to announce tax cuts and a direct subsidy for diesel, a key input for Brazil's road-centric logistics, a day before state-run oil firm Petrobras raised the fuel's price. Surging oil prices also reshaped interest-rate pricing in recent days, prompting Brazil's Treasury to step in with extraordinary auctions.
• Policymakers stressed in their decision statement the importance of "serenity and cautiousness in the conduction of monetary policy, so that future steps of interest rate calibration could incorporate new information about the depth and duration of the conflicts in the Middle East." The central bank also noted that the prolonged period of restrictive rates had shown it was slowing down the economy, "creating the conditions under which adjustments to the pace of this calibration, in light of new information, can be made." Brazil's real interest rate remains above 10%, among the highest in major economies.
• Felipe Tavares, chief economist at BGC Liquidez, called the bank's communication dovish and forecast a 50-basis-point cut at the next meeting in April. He noted that the central bank opted to lower rates despite a sharp deterioration in inflation projections, even after incorporating a more favourable exchange-rate path. Policymakers raised their inflation forecast for this year to 3.9% from 3.4%.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England's interest rate-setters all voted to keep borrowing ​costs on hold and said they were "ready to act" to see off risks from war in the Middle East, prompting investors to ramp up their bets on higher ‌borrowing costs later this year. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, the central bank said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had mostly expected a 7-2 vote to hold rates.
• The MPC said inflation could go as high as 3.5% over the next two calendar quarters, according to BoE staff forecasts, and that it was alert to the risk of higher inflation expectations becoming embedded in the economy. It also nodded to the risks of an economic ​slowdown, which could weaken inflation pressures, but said the bigger risk was one of higher inflation, adding it "stands ready to act as necessary" to keep inflation on track for its 2% ​target.
• Governor Andrew Bailey said petrol prices were already higher and household energy bills would go up later this year if the conflict lasts. Investors moved to price in two ​quarter-point rate hikes by the BoE this year. Yields on two-year British government bonds - which are sensitive to speculation about rates - leapt by a huge 34 basis points on the day, hitting the highest since ​January 2025 at 4.486%.
• Some of the day's surge came earlier on news of more damage to gas infrastructure in Qatar. Bailey later said markets were getting ahead of themselves in assuming rate rises. Rob Wood, a former BoE economist who is chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the surge in oil and especially natural ​gas prices on Thursday - which came after the MPC's vote on Wednesday - tilted the risks further towards rate hikes.
• Luke Bartholomew, deputy chief economist of investment company Aberdeen, said the hurdle to a return to rate hikes was very high but "the economy could be facing a long wait until the next cut." Shortly after the ‌BoE announcement, the ⁠ECB left interest rates unchanged but signalled it was ready to act to counter risks to growth and from inflation.
• On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and projected a single reduction in borrowing costs this year, although Chair Jerome Powell said uncertainty was high.
• Some of the BoE's MPC members suggested interest rates might need to go up. Catherine Mann said she thought the BoE should consider a longer pause in rates "or even a hike at some point" to stop inflation from getting stuck too high.

(Source: Reuters)

• President Donald Trump's administration on Wednesday announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged vessels to move ‌fuel, fertilizer and other goods between U.S. ports to combat price increases and supply disruptions from the Iran conflict.
• White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said the waiver represents "another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the U.S. military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury."
• The waiver, a rare exception to the century-old law, underscores the administration’s urgent response to a crisis that has sent gasoline prices sharply higher and disrupted critical fertiliser supplies for U.S. farmers. The American Maritime Partnership, a Washington-based advocacy group representing U.S. ⁠ship operators, said it was "deeply concerned" that the 60-day broad waiver would displace U.S. workers and companies, and said the exemption is intended only for immediate threats to military operations. The group pledged to closely monitor its implementation.
• Relaxing the Jones Act allows coastal refiners and fuel distributors to access a larger pool of ships, including foreign-flagged vessels, to move gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products between ports. While analysts caution the move is unlikely to significantly lower pump prices, it signals a pragmatic shift by Trump, who has long championed U.S. shipbuilding and maritime labour unions, key supporters of the Jones Act. Brett Erickson, a managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said the Jones Act waiver - along with other efforts - will not have a meaningful impact on prices.
• S. gasoline prices have surged since the start of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28. The conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the outlet for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies. High energy prices carry significant political risks for Trump and fellow Republicans, who have long argued that their policies would keep fuel affordable for American consumers.
• The top U.S. oil refinery ⁠trade group, American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, welcomed the waiver, saying it would provide much-needed flexibility. The conflict has also disrupted fertiliser supplies, a major concern for U.S. farmers. Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation, applauded the waiver, which came as some farmers have started spring plantings.
• "The jump in fertiliser and fuel ⁠costs, as well as the threat of shortages, sent shockwaves across rural America," he said. Under the Jones Act, goods shipped between U.S. ports must be carried on vessels that are U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged and mostly U.S.-owned. Maritime industry unions support the requirement, which sharply limits the number of ⁠tankers available for domestic shipments.
• The administration’s waiver is one of several emergency measures being employed to counter the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, including releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and adjustments to sanctions policy, as Washington seeks to stabilise markets ahead of domestic political pressures

(Source: Reuters)

• For the quarter ended January 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), The Limners and Bards Limited (The LAB) recorded a net loss of J$13.67Mn, reversing the J$21.60Mn profit recorded in Q1 2025. The loss occurred amid Melissa-induced revenue pressures across all three business segments.
• Q1 revenues were cut by 40.3% to J$170.85Mn, as Hurricane Melissa disrupted commercial activity across Jamaica during November and December, historically the strongest months for advertising, media and promotional spending.
• With the sharp drop in revenues, gross profit fell 43.0% to J$57.36Mn, despite a falloff in direct costs (-33.8%), which contributed to gross margin compression from 35.1% to 33.6%. A temporary reduction in the Agency segment and production assignments being delivered during the quarter were behind the reduction in costs. That said, management expects project flow to recover and margins to trend toward more typical levels. Meanwhile, operating expenses (OPEX) were relatively flat (-3.6%). But ultimately, the sharper gross profit dip dragged the company to a $16.68Mn operating loss.
• Management views the quarter's weak results as a timing effect of an extraordinary external event and expects activity to normalise as commercial confidence recovers across the Caribbean. However, beyond Melissa’s impact, the Lab’s revenues have been declining as clients become more conservative with ad spend amid soft macroeconomic conditions. Changing advertising spending patterns in the face of consumers' increasing pivot to social media have impacted the demand for LAB’s media business and are likely to continue, as clients continue to pivot to more cost-effective advertisement solutions.
• Looking ahead, The LAB continues to advance several strategic initiatives that could meaningfully diversify and grow its revenue base. Its film slate under the Five in 25 initiative has attracted interest from international streaming platforms, and its first film release on YouTube garnered over 14,000 views within 24 hours of launch. Its trolley advertising platform is also expanding regionally, with contracts signed for a pilot in Guyana.
• Additionally, the company has begun testing AI-enabled production and marketing solutions with select clients. Management has described early feedback as positive.
• LAB's stock price has decreased by 11.5% since the start of the year to close at $0.92 on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. At this current price, the company’s P/E sits at 92.0x.

(Sources: LAB Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)

• Stationery and Office Supplies Limited’s (SOS’) audited earnings contracted by 40.5% to J$132.52Mn for the full year ended December 31, 2025, as rising cost of sales and higher administrative expenses outpaced revenue growth.
• Revenues grew by 1.2% to $1.87Bn, reflecting increased exports. Management noted that revenues would have been significantly higher if not for Hurricane Melissa, which caused significant operational disruption in its 4^th
• Direct costs grew by 9.4%, but SOS lost its entire stock in its Montego Bay warehouse. With lower revenues and higher direct costs, gross profit fell 5.5% to J$952.79Mn and gross margin narrowed from 54.7% to 51.0%.
• Operating expenses, which grew by 4.9% to $823.88Mn, also contributed to the lower profits. Administrative and general expenses rose 7.2% to J$612.49Mn, while selling and promotional costs were broadly flat at J$153.60Mn. Depreciation and amortisation added a further J$44.53Mn charge, and impairment losses on financial assets, while better than the prior year, still contributed a J$13.26Mn drag on earnings. Taken together, these operating costs weighed heavily on profitability, with operating profit declining sharply to J$136.82Mn from J$227.51Mn in the prior year, a fall of 39.3%.
• Profit before tax of J$160.42Mn, was a significant reduction from J$246.63Mn in the prior year.
• While Melissa closed its FY2025 on a tough note, there were some highlights. While there was no evidence of entering new markets in the Caribbean in 2025, SOS saw higher export sales in 2025, which implied that it sold more products in its existing destinations. The EVOLVE line of furniture continued to grow its revenues by 15% to $160Mn in 2025.
• Lastly, the new SEEK factory was completed in late 2025. In the short term, this expansion should boost capacity, allowing the company to meet demand more efficiently and support improved profitability. Over the medium to long term, the added capacity positions the company to benefit from favourable industry trends; however, revenue growth is expected to remain moderate given the industry’s maturity and competitive landscape.
• SOS's stock price decreased by 9.0% since the start of the year to close at $1.51 on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. At this current price, the company’s P/E sits at 25.2x, above the average of the JSE Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 19.7x.

(Sources: SOS Financial Statements & NCBCM Research)