UAE to Leave OPEC in May as Iran War Reshapes Oil Market

• The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its wider alliance, dealing a blow to the group and its leader, Saudi Arabia. It comes at a time when the global oil industry grapples with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war. The UAE’s exit on May 1, 2026, after six decades of membership¹, is a significant loss for the group (see Figure 1), which has spent years balancing global oil markets and defending prices by managing crude supplies.
• The UAE said its decision would help it meet growing global energy demand in the long term after recent investments to boost its production capacity. The move is also the latest indication of how the war in Iran will reshape global energy markets for years to come. While the UAE has talked in the past about quitting OPEC amid longstanding tensions with Saudi Arabia, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move.
• “This is a decision that we took after a very careful and long review of all our strategies,” he said. “The decision is taken at the right time in our view because it’s not going to hugely impact the market: the market is undersupplied.” The UAE believes that the shortages caused by the war will require agility to respond to market demands without being constrained by the collective decision-making process of the wider group, he said.
• The departure follows years of tension with the leader of OPEC and neighbouring Saudi Arabia, both over oil output policy and competition for regional political influence. The two had clashed occasionally at OPEC+ meetings as the UAE sought to deploy new investments in oil production capacity, while Riyadh pressed the group to restrain supply. Such disagreements had brought Abu Dhabi to the brink of quitting OPEC before, though it never followed through.
• It also represents a win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has previously attacked OPEC for "ripping off the rest of the world". In January, he asked Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to "bring down the cost of oil" and doubled down on his threat to use tariffs.
• In the immediate future, though, the impact will likely be limited as war between the US and Iran throttles exports from the Persian Gulf, forcing the UAE, the Saudis, Iraq and others to slash production rather than increase it. Oil futures are trading near $111 a barrel in London.

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¹The UAE joined in 1967, and its departure will leave the cartel with 11 members. There are an additional 10 non-Opec members in the wider Opec+ alliance.

(Sources: Bloomberg & BBC)

• Canada's federal government posted a smaller budget deficit than expected for the 2025/26 fiscal year and slightly trimmed its growth forecasts, painting a picture of modest fiscal improvement set against a deteriorating economic outlook shaped by US tariffs.
• The spring economic statement, released by the finance ministry on Tuesday, put the 2025/26 deficit at C$66.9Bn, less than the C$78.3Bn shortfall predicted in the November 2025 budget. Officials attributed the better outcome to a combination of spending discipline and higher revenues from crude oil sales, reflecting Canada's continued reliance on its energy sector as a fiscal backstop.
• Despite the headline improvement, the statement carried a cautious tone on growth. Real GDP is forecast to expand by just 1.1% in 2026, down from the 1.2% expected in November, and by 1.9% in 2027, trimmed from 2.0%. Forecasts for 2028 and 2029 were left at 1.9%, though the 2029 figure represented a downward revision from 2.0% previously.
• Real GDP is not expected to return to its pre-tariff trajectory and will remain approximately 1.6% below the level projected in the autumn 2024 outlook by 2029. That is a substantial permanent shortfall and reflects the scale of disruption that trade tensions with Washington have introduced into Canada's medium-term planning.
• Forward deficit projections were left largely intact. The ministry left its deficit forecasts for the next four fiscal years virtually unchanged from November, with the 2026/27 shortfall seen at C$65.3 Bn, 2027/28 at C$63.1Bn, 2028/29 at C$57.7Bn and 2029/30 at C$56.2 Bn. A figure for 2030/31 of C$53.2Bn was also released. The gradual narrowing reflects a slow consolidation path rather than any urgent push toward balance.
• On debt sustainability, the government offered some reassurance. The finance ministry also said the federal debt-to-GDP ⁠ratio in 2025/26 was 41.1%, compared to the 42.4% forecast in November. The ministry projects the ratio will rise only marginally to 41.8% in 2027/28 before stabilising, suggesting the debt burden is seen as broadly manageable even under the revised growth assumptions.

(Sources: Reuters & Investinglive)

• For the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of J$1.17Bn, a 141.0% deterioration relative to the J$486.35Mn loss in Q1 2025. Negative operating revenues, higher operating expenses, and the absence of joint venture earnings were the main drivers of the outturn.
• Operating revenues, which were negative (-$1.27Bn), were dragged down by net interest expenses and unrealised losses on investments in associates.
• Net interest expenses totalled $392.53Mn, as interest income, which is down 43.8% to $363.22Mn, was met by a 28.2% increase in interest expenses to $755.75Mn. Reduced market yields for structured notes translated into weaker interest income, while the higher interest expenses were due to growth in costs for corporate papers and notes.
• However, it was unrealised losses on its investments in associates totaling $1.55Bn that were the biggest contributor to the losses. This was marginally higher than the $1.54Bn reported for Q1 2025 and reflects price reductions for key securities in its portfolio. Its subsidiary Mayberry Jamaican Equities (MJE: -16.9%) and associate Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL: -5.3%) were likely major contributors.
• Higher operating expenses (OPEX), which rose 35.9%, compounded the losses. A 76.4% increase in other operating expenses, higher financing and carrying costs on investment positions at its wholly-owned subsidiary, Widebase, as well as increased overheads for technology modernisation, digital marketing, were the main contributors. An 18.2% increase in salaries and staff costs as the group added key talent to help pursue its strategic revenue pillars exacerbated losses.
• Lastly, the absence of profits from its joint venture also played a key role in the $1.17 Bn loss. In Q1 2025, MGL benefited from a $518Mn joint venture profit, which helped to keep losses at bay.
• MGL’s weak quarter reflects the difficult operating environment, characterised by still elevated interest rates and equity market volatility against the backdrop of a still weak economy post Hurricane Melissa and the risks to domestic inflation from the external environment, which are likely to continue to keep equity markets depressed.
• That said, management is deploying its broader strategy to improve performance, which includes reducing balance sheet risk, broadening the revenue base, and building a more durable earnings foundation. Moreover, if SVL, whose Q1 2026 earnings were strong (+35.9%), sees a sustained rebound in performance, its stock price may rebound and contribute to an eventual reversal in MGL’s unrealised losses on investments in associates.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, MGL’s stock price closed at J$6.34, reflecting a 14.7% year-to-date decline. At this price, MGL trades at a P/B of 0.63x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.07x.

(Source: Mayberry Group Limited & NCBCM Research)

• The Government is prioritising aviation as a key driver of tourism growth. Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, announced plans to expand the air transport infrastructure and strengthen connectivity across Jamaica as part of the broader Tourism 3.0 strategy.
• He outlined the approach while addressing stakeholders in Treasure Beach, St. Elizabeth, on Friday (April 24), during the second day of the South Coast Confidence Tour. On the south coast, the Minister highlighted Vernamfield as the centrepiece of the Government’s aviation ambitions.
• The plan extends beyond upgrading the airstrip, envisioning a full aviation ecosystem built around Vernamfield, with the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA¹) spearheading its development.
• “There is also the Lionel Densham Aerodrome in St. Elizabeth, because I know that it is a matter of local interest. I certainly have been inspired by my conversation with Jack Sprat Restaurant owner and hotelier, Jason Henzell, about the potential for it,” Mr. Bartlett outlined. Mr. Bartlett explained that enhanced aviation infrastructure would significantly cut travel times between key points across the island.
• According to the Minister, the goal is to establish a system where visitors can travel from major entry points to tourism hotspots, “within an hour to an hour and a half,” offering a level of convenience comparable to other international destinations and thereby strengthening Jamaica’s appeal. Mr. Bartlett emphasised that NaRRA is expected to design and implement the infrastructure required to realise this vision.
• By developing the Vernamfield aviation ecosystem and upgrading local aerodromes like Lionel Densham, the government is opening up the South Coast (such as Treasure Beach) to mainstream tourism. This will spread tourism revenue beyond traditional hubs like Montego Bay and Ocho Rios, boosting local economies, especially in disaster-stricken areas in Western Jamaica.

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¹NaRRA is the State agency established to manage post-disaster reconstruction and resilience building.

(Source: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Republic’s economy expanded 5.1% year-over-year in March 2026, marking its strongest monthly growth in 11 months, according to preliminary data from the central bank, signalling a notable pickup in economic momentum.
• Growth was driven primarily by construction, free-zone manufacturing, and financial intermediation, including insurance and related activities, pointing to broad-based expansion across both real and services sectors.
• For Q1 2026, economic activity, as measured by the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE), grew 4.1%. This reflects a gradual recovery, with growth strengthening from 3.5% in January to 3.9% in February and accelerating further in March.
• Despite the improving domestic performance, the external environment remains highly uncertain, with Middle East tensions contributing to oil price volatility and disruptions to maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting downward revisions to global growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund.
• The central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining price stability and closely monitoring global developments, highlighting the risk that external shocks, particularly energy price increases, could spill over into domestic inflation and economic conditions.
• Following a slowdown in 2025, when growth eased to 2.1%, the latest data positions the Dominican Republic among the fastest-growing economies in the Caribbean, although the sustainability of this recovery will depend on external conditions.
• The rebound reflects strong domestic demand and sectoral recovery. But with the economy still highly exposed to external shocks, particularly oil prices and global trade disruptions, growth momentum, while improving, remains vulnerable in the near term.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• The Bahamas has launched a new digital trade hub designed to give Bahamian businesses direct access to global opportunities. This marks a shift from policy to execution in its push to expand exports and strengthen competitiveness.
• Prime Minister Philip Davis emphasised that the initiative focuses on expanding access to global markets. Doing so would enable businesses to navigate international trade better and tap into new revenue streams, while leveraging key sectors such as fisheries, creative industries, natural products, and high-value services.
• The hub serves as a centralised, user-friendly gateway, consolidating previously fragmented resources into one platform, including financing opportunities, trade missions, import/export guidance, market intelligence, and practical toolkits to support export readiness.
• Developed by the Bahamas Trade Commission, the platform forms part of a broader strategy to modernise trade engagement, improve transparency, and address structural barriers. It is also expected to build on the National Trade Policy introduced in 2022 to support economic growth and reduce dependence on imports.
• Authorities noted that the platform is intended to drive a shift toward export-led growth, encouraging businesses to scale beyond the domestic market. It would be supported by skills development, workforce training initiatives, and the use of technology to improve compliance and meet international standards.
• Overall, the initiative reflects a strategic pivot toward export diversification, positioning trade alongside tourism as a more central pillar of long-term growth, while lowering barriers to entry and supporting the expansion of Bahamian enterprises into overseas markets.

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly & Eyewitness News)

• Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will gather in Washington this week in what may be Jerome Powell's last meeting as head of the United States (U.S.) Central Bank, with energy prices still elevated and the Iran war at a standstill, is likely to prolong uncertainty about the economic and monetary policy outlook.
• A May 15 endpoint for Powell's eight years at the Fed's helm now appears more likely after a major obstacle to the U.S. Senate's confirmation of his appointed successor, Kevin Warsh, was removed on Friday, April 24, 2026. As a final act, Powell ‌will likely oversee on Wednesday (April 29th) another vote by the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 3.50%-3.75% range, where it has been since December. Still, the meeting and Powell's press conference afterwards could settle key matters, including whether policymakers will nod to the potential for rate hikes later this year if inflation accelerates.
• When the war started on February 28, central bankers said the impact on inflation and economic growth would hinge on how quickly it ended and whether oil prices reversed to pre-war levels of around $70 a barrel. Eight weeks later, the bombing has paused, but economic warfare is still underway. The U.S. is blocking Iranian ships from leaving the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is preventing other vessels from passing through the vital waterway, and the disruption to global oil and other supply chains at a point where policymakers are taking inflation risks more seriously.
• Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, have risen about 50% since the start of the war. The resulting surge in gasoline and energy prices last month helped propel the U.S. Consumer Price Index to its biggest increase in nearly four years. While expected to hold interest rates steady, U.S. central bankers will have to decide if it's time to nod to the possibility of hiking borrowing costs if ‌inflation continues to ⁠ The prospect of rate cuts, at least, has dwindled, with bond markets positioned for the Fed's policy rate to remain where it is through at least the middle of 2027.
• That said, the question of whether Powell will remain on the Fed's Board of Governors even if Warsh is confirmed in time to run the next policy meeting in June also could be addressed. The U.S. Department of Justice on Friday dropped a controversial criminal probe of Powell over renovations of the Fed's headquarters in Washington, potentially satisfying the demands of a key Republican senator who threatened to delay Warsh's confirmation because of it. Powell also had made an end of the probe a necessary condition of leaving the Fed's board.
• Although Fed chiefs traditionally have resigned their board seats when their leadership terms have expired, Powell said last month he might stay and would "make that ⁠decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve," a broader test connected with President Donald Trump's efforts to encroach on the Fed's independence.

(Source: Reuters)

• China’s strategic reserves of oil and natural gas have insulated it somewhat, but its manufacturing-based economy is beginning to falter. China has sought to increase exports as demand has weakened at home. Rising oil and natural gas prices from the war in Iran are beginning to weigh on the Chinese economy, further slowing already anaemic consumer spending and hurting critical export sectors.
• Car sales fell in March and plunged further in April. Restaurants and hotels are also seeing fewer customers as households turn cautious. In southern China, thousands of toy factory workers protested last week after their employer collapsed under rising plastic costs and ongoing tariffs in the United States (U.S.).
• The emerging signs of strain underscore how even China, with vast strategic oil reserves and massive investments in renewable energy, is not immune to the forces pressuring economies worldwide. For many weeks, China had appeared to weather the fallout from the war, a view reinforced by fairly strong economic data through March. But with the war in its ninth week with no clear end, cracks are beginning to show.
• “The economy is decelerating,” said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, a French financial firm. China may struggle to meet this year’s growth target of 4.5% or more, she added. One of the clearest signs of emerging weakness is in car sales and production, often considered early indicators of trouble. Cars are the second-largest purchase for many Chinese households after apartments, and the industry drives demand for steel, glass and other materials.
• China’s retail car sales plunged 26% in the first 19 days of April from a year earlier, according to the China Passenger Car Association. While part of the drop reflects weaker electric-vehicle sales after tax incentives expired in December, gasoline-powered cars fared worse, falling by nearly 40%. Falling sales have left dealership lots crowded with unsold cars, triggering production cutbacks. Chinese car factories made 27% fewer cars in the first two weeks of April than a year earlier, a sharp pullback even as exports rise.
• At first glance, the economy still looks resilient. But a closer look suggests underlying weakness. This month, China said that its economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.3% during the first three months of this year. But most of the strength was in January and February. Retail sales decelerated in March, rising just 1.7% from a year ago. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing also noted that inventories of unsold goods continued to build. Michael Pettis, a Beijing economist, expressed that rising inventories could drag on future growth.

(Source: The New York Times)

• CB Group is investing approximately $1Bn in two major climate-smart agricultural facilities aimed at significantly expanding Jamaica’s egg and pork production capacity, marking one of the largest private agri-infrastructure pushes in recent years.
• The project includes a 40,000-bird tunnel-ventilated layer farm scheduled for completion by September 2026 and a 640-sow breeding facility expected to produce about 15,000 piglets annually, both designed with advanced automation and European-standard systems.
• The investment is positioned as a response to recent agricultural disruptions from Hurricane Melissa and reflects a broader shift toward hurricane-resilient, climate-adaptive food production infrastructure in the sector.
• Government officials have endorsed the initiative as aligned with national food security and agribusiness-led transformation goals, emphasising climate resilience, rural development, and export readiness under the country’s agricultural modernisation agenda.
• CB Group also plans to build out a network of contract farmers for both eggs and pork, scaling up production through tunnel-ventilated housing systems and integrating new supply chain infrastructure, including a central packing house, liquid egg processing, and expanded pork processing capacity.
• Over the next decade, the initiative aims to roughly double Jamaica’s table egg and pork industries, with the new facilities expected to trigger further private investment and expand total sector capacity significantly.

(Source: JIS)

• According to the Central Bank's Annual Economic Survey published yesterday, the latest official data from the Central Statistical Office (CSO) showed that real GDP for Trinidad & Tobago increased by 0.2% over the first nine months of 2025. This reflected a 2.2% expansion in the energy sector that offset a 0.6% decline in non-energy sector production. The Central Bank stated that "Energy sector buoyancy largely reflected a base effect, given maintenance activity by key upstream producers in the first half of 2024. Added impetus to growth accrued from the start-up of production at two new natural gas fields in the second quarter of 2025."
• Unemployment remained relatively low, averaging 4.5% over the first three quarters of 2025, signalling stabilised labour market conditions when compared with the unemployment rate of 4.8% during the same period of 2024. An uptick occurred in the number of persons with jobs alongside a more than proportionate decline in the number of persons without jobs. However, the labour force fell while the participation rate remained relatively unchanged at 54.7%. Job gains were notably observed in the Wholesale and Retail Trade, Restaurants and Hotels, and Manufacturing sectors.
• Price pressures were generally contained in 2025 as headline inflation remained low, increasing to 1% from 0.5% in 2024. This was underpinned by an increase in both food (3% in 2025 compared to 1.5% in 2024) and core inflation (0.5% in 2025 compared to 0.2% in 2024).
• Higher energy receipts outpaced the increase in government spending in the fiscal year ended September 2025, resulting in a significantly smaller overall deficit than budgeted. The preliminary outturn from the Ministry of Finance shows that the Central Government accounts recorded an overall deficit of $8.1Bn in FY2024/25. This compares with a fiscal deficit of $9.1Bn recorded in the previous fiscal year (FY2023/24) and the mid-year revised budget deficit of $9.7Bn for FY2024/25. Central Government revenue climbed to $49.1Bn driven mainly by stronger energy receipts, while expenditure increased moderately to $57.2Bn owing to higher outlays in transfers and subsidies and goods and services.
• Domestic and external borrowings, along with withdrawals from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) were used to finance the fiscal deficit. At the end of September 2025, adjusted General Government debt outstanding (which excludes debt issued for sterilisation purposes) reached $146.9Bn, $6.2Bn more than in September 2024.
• The Central Bank allowed treasury bills and notes to mature in the financial system and kept the repo rate unchanged at 3.5% during 2025 to support favourable funding conditions to aid domestic economic activity. Continued Government borrowing activity led to tighter market liquidity conditions, which the Bank addressed by allowing open market operation treasury securities to mature to keep ample liquidity in the banking system. After declining to $3.5Bn in October 2025, commercial banks' excess reserves at the Central Bank increased to $4.2Bn by end-December 2025. Trinidad and Tobago's external accounts recorded a deficit of US$908.2Mn in the first nine months of 2025.

(Source: Trinidad Express)