• Trinidad’s ongoing row with its Caribbean neighbours over U.S. policy toward international drug trafficking and Venezuela boiled over into a full-scale verbal exchange recently, with the prime minister demanding the exit of CARICOM’s secretary-general after her term ends in August.
• Regional tensions among members of CARICOM, a 15-member regional trade bloc, spiked late last year when governments denounced U.S. military action in the South Caribbean and the build-up of an unusually large American force near Venezuela intended to capture then-President Nicolás Maduro.
• Regional neighbours previously called for the Caribbean to remain a “zone of peace,” but Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar dismissed the label as “zone of peace fakery,” throwing her support behind U.S. military strikes and the Trump administration’s broader campaign against international drug trafficking and organised crime.
• She has now turned her focus to CARICOM’s general operations, demanding that Secretary-General Carla Barnett step down once her five-year term concludes in late August. Since winning Trinidad’s general election one year ago, the prime minister has used her platform to push for Barnett’s removal, reminding leaders that Trinidad pays around 22% of CARICOM’s annual budget, around $20Mn.
• Persad-Bissessar has repeatedly expressed her administration’s deep dissatisfaction with the bloc’s current operations, saying she remains puzzled as to why the region aligned with Venezuela and Maduro rather than supporting the U.S. position. “Caricom has chosen to support the Maduro narco-government through the fake zone of peace narrative,” she said in a statement in late 2025 as the U.S. was preparing for action against Maduro and as governments complained about the alleged illegality of the deadly boat strikes.

(Source: The Associated Press)

• The Iran war has damaged as much as US$58.0Bn worth of energy infrastructure, according to an estimate published by consulting firm Rystad Energy on Wednesday.
• Iran has attacked the oil and gas infrastructure of its Gulf Arab neighbors, including production facilities, refineries and pipelines, among other targets. Israel has bombed natural gas and petrochemical facilities in Iran.
• More than 80 energy facilities have been attacked in all since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on Feb. 28, said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. More than a third of those are severely damaged, Birol said. “This is one of the most critical issues and different than the past, many of the facilities are badly damaged,” the IEA chief said Monday at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. It could take as long as two years to repair facilities and restore oil and gas production to prewar levels, he said.
• At a minimum, the repair bill for the damage is at least US$34.0Bn, Rystad estimated. The extent of the damage is still not clear at some facilities, the firm said. The final bill will depend on whether the damage to those assets is more limited or structural. At the same time, the amount of equipment needed for the repair work will stress global energy supply chains, said Karan Satwani, a senior analyst for supply chain research at Rystad.
• Iran’s infrastructure has absorbed the biggest hit, with repair costs potentially coming in at US$19.0Bn, Rystad estimates. Qatar also faces steep costs after Iran struck its key liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility.
• Attacks on energy facilities escalated after Israel bombed Iran’s South Pars natural gas complex on March 18. Iran retaliated by attacking the world’s largest LNG facility, in Qatar, damaging two production lines responsible for 17.0% of the small Gulf state’s gas exports.
• The damage to Qatar’s LNG facility will result in US$20.0Bn of lost revenue and will take as long as five years to repair, state-owned QatarEnergy said in a March 19 statement. Iran has also attacked pipelines, refineries and production facilities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

(Source: CNBC)

• U.S. import prices rose 0.8% in March, below expectations for a 2.0% rise, though economists expect the full impact of the oil price surge from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show in April's data.
• It was stated that this most likely reflects ‌timing differences between when the oil that entered U.S. ports was shipped and the spot price of oil. Moreover, the average crude oil price arriving in the United States in March was up 7.8% compared to Brent price, which was up by 45.5%. Therefore, the bulk of the March oil price increase has yet to show up in this report.
• In the 12 months through March, import prices shot ​up 2.1%. That was the largest year-on-year rise since December 2024, and followed a 1.0% increase in February. "Whether it is higher shipping costs from supply disruptions or foreign manufacturers no longer offsetting the tariffs with their own ​product price cuts, import price inflation is on its way up, and then adding insult to injury, once the ships dock here, the imported goods are hit with the tariffs," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The consumer is losing, and will continue to lose."
• Core PCE inflation was estimated to have advanced 3.2% in the 12 months through March, which would be the largest gain in two years, with the Federal Reserve tracking PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target.
• Financial markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate cut this year, while minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 meeting showed a growing group of policymakers felt that rate hikes might be needed.

(Source: Reuters)

• S. import prices rose 0.8% in March, below expectations for a 2.0% rise, though economists expect the full impact of the oil price surge from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran to show in April's data.
• It was stated that this most likely reflects ‌timing differences between when the oil that entered U.S. ports was shipped and the spot price of oil. Moreover, the average crude oil price arriving in the United States in March was up 7.8% compared to Brent price, which was up by 45.5%. Therefore, the bulk of the March oil price increase has yet to show up in this report.
• In the 12 months through March, import prices shot ​up 2.1%. That was the largest year-on-year rise since December 2024, and followed a 1.0% increase in February. "Whether it is higher shipping costs from supply disruptions or foreign manufacturers no longer offsetting the tariffs with their own ​product price cuts, import price inflation is on its way up, and then adding insult to injury, once the ships dock here, the imported goods are hit with the tariffs," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "The consumer is losing, and will continue to lose."
• Core PCE inflation was estimated to have advanced 3.2% in the 12 months through March, which would be the largest gain in two years, with the Federal Reserve tracking PCE price indexes for its 2% inflation target.
• Financial markets are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a rate cut this year, while minutes of the Fed's March 17-18 meeting showed a growing group of policymakers felt that rate hikes might be needed.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) has advised that it has entered into an agreement to sell assets of the Best Dressed Chicken Processing Plant located in South Carolina, USA.
• These assets were previously purchased in September 2019 from Gentry’s Poultry Company, Inc. and were held through the Company’s subsidiary, The Best Dressed Chicken, Inc.
• This asset sale transaction follows a strategic review of the Company’s U.S. Operations in light of sustained operational challenges and market conditions (including weak selling prices for U.S. Poultry) that have impacted performance in the broiler meat segment.
• These challenges played a role in the group’s $2.22Bn loss for the quarter ended January 31, 2026 (Q3 2026), alongside disruptions from Hurricane Melissa. Management highlighted in January that its Jamaica Operations post-Melissa was recovering ahead of schedule. Following the divestment of its South Carolina processing plant, JBG’s US footprint will centre on its fertile egg production and logistics hubs. This includes International Poultry Breeders (IPB), with hatcheries across Georgia, Arkansas, and Pennsylvania, and Wincorp International, which manages procurement and logistics. To stabilise these remaining core assets, the Group is actively restructuring leadership, tightening financial controls, and transitioning to specialised sector auditors.
• JBG's stock price has decreased by 13.1% since the start of the year to close at $14.87 on Tuesday, April 14, 2026.

(Source: JSE& NCBCM research)

• The blowback from Hurricane Melissa continues, knocking Knutsford Express Limited’s (KEX’s) performance off route and leaving Express Catering Limited (ECL) with slimmer servings. For their third quarter ending February 28, 2026 (Q3 2026), their earnings fell 68.4% and 63.3%, respectively, relative to Q3 2025.
• Unsurprisingly, the common driver of the decline in earnings was weaker revenues, given that both companies rely on tourist arrivals, particularly ECL, which operates several restaurants at Sangster’s International Airport.
• ECL’s revenues declined by 48.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 39.7% drop in passengers accessing the post-security departure lounge at Sangster International Airport. This reflects the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa, which reduced accommodation capacity across Montego Bay and surrounding resort areas after several properties sustained damage, limiting available room stock.
• In line with the sharp decline in revenues, ECL’s cost of sales fell by 53.2%, but was insufficient to prevent a 46.9% drop in gross profit. Similarly, operating expenses declined by 31.7%, which was accompanied by $0.45Mn in finance income.
• Meanwhile, KEX’s revenues declined by a more modest 8.2%, as the company was able to partially offset losses in affected areas through its diversified route network. Operating expenses were flat (-0.9%) and resulted in a 60.3% decline in operating profit relative to Q3 2025.
• Notably, KEX and ECL’s weaker Q3 reflected wider year-to-date declines, with their 9-month earnings down 53.7% and 49.6%, respectively.
• Looking ahead, ECL and KEX should see gradual improvement in earnings over the next few quarters, as the tourism sector recovers from the disruption caused by Hurricane Melissa. Tourism recovery would translate to a meaningful rebound in passenger and traffic flows through Sangster’s, which would be accretive to both companies’ performance.
• KEX also expanded its fleet of coaches, positioning itself to capture the expected uplift in demand while enhancing operational efficiency and reducing downtime. However, it will need to share this demand with competitors, particularly the government-owned JUTC, which has launched its Rural Express offering, providing coach services at significantly lower prices on some of KEX’s key routes.
• KEX’s stock price has decreased by 28.7% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Tuesday’s trading session at $8.18 and currently trades at a P/E of 28.2x, which is above the Junior Market Other Sector Average of 25.8x. Over the same period, ECL lost 1.7% of its share price to close at $2.44. At this price, it trades at a P/E of 11.4x, which is below the Junior Market Other Sector Average of 25.8x.

(Sources: JSE& NCBCM research)

• Tax Administration Jamaica (TAJ) is reminding the public that, effective April 1, 2026, the Income Tax threshold (tax-free amount) was increased to $1,902,360, up from $1,799,376.
• This adjustment is in keeping with the announcement made by the Minister of Finance and the Public Service, the Hon. Fayval Williams, during the 2025 Budget Presentation. At that time, it was outlined that the annual Income Tax threshold would be progressively increased over the period 2025 through 2028, with a target of reaching $2,000,000.
• As the new threshold took effect on April 1, 2026, the effective tax-free amount for the full twelve months of 2026 is $1,876,614.
• The second phase of planned increases has raised the periodic tax-free threshold for both employed and self-employed individuals to $36,583.85 weekly, $73,234.90 fortnightly, and $158,530 monthly.
• The phased increase of the personal income tax threshold to $2 million is designed to be a responsible fiscal adjustment, rather than a single massive hit to the budget, in light of the adverse effects of Hurricane Melissa on revenues and the need to increase expenditure to support rebuilding.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• President Irfaan Ali has confirmed that his administration intends to engage the Government of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) directly on a potential collaboration that would see Guyana’s crude oil refined in the twin-island state. The prospect of Guyanese crude being refined in Trinidad and Tobago has emerged as a key element of an energy strategy outlined by Ali during a recent visit.
• Discussions around Guyana supplying crude to support the restart of Trinidad’s idle refining capacity have gained traction in recent months. The country’s Energy Minister, Dr Roodal Moonilal, indicated that while attending a conference in Guyana back in February, he pointed out that the country could play a key part in the restart of the refinery.
• The minister had disclosed that the facility can process about 150,000 barrels of oil daily but will require petroleum from regional partners. At the same event, Guyana’s Minister of Natural Resources, Vickram Bharrat, disclosed that the two CARICOM states are already in discussion to look at the possibility of having that refinery restart.
• Speaking to the Sunday Business Guardian, Ali framed this integration as a non-negotiable response to a shifting global market. He argued that the era of hesitation must end, as the economic cost of delay grows increasingly steep, calling for a disciplined, private-sector-led integration of cross-border gas and refinery assets.
• Central to this blueprint is the potential reactivation of T&T’s idle refining capacity to process Guyanese crude. Ali confirmed he is prepared to engage the T&T Government directly to discuss a strategy that would see Guyanese light sweet crude flow into Trinidadian refineries, effectively turning a legacy industrial burden into a regional asset.
• Overall, Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026. T&T also benefits intermittently from gas-related activity, but with a more mature production profile and without the scale of expansion seen in Guyana. T&T’s economy is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.7% in 2026, but the World Bank suggests this will rise in 2027, with real GDP growth of 3.2%, on the back of energy growth prospects. Guyana is also expected to continue to see rapid growth of 16.3% and 23.5% in 2026 and 2027.

(Source: Kaieteur News, Guardian T&T)

• Chevron has signed two key agreements to expand operations at Venezuela's vast Orinoco Belt, including an asset swap adding an extra heavy crude area to its main project while returning an offshore gas field and a small crude area.
• The agreements are among the first big expansion deals since the United States (U.S.) launched a $100Bn reconstruction plan for Venezuela's energy sector after capturing President Nicolas Maduro, and a sweeping reform of the country's main oil law was approved in January, encouraging foreign investment.
• The pacts, expected to allow ⁠ the U.S. major to boost crude output and participation at the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) main oil region, were signed by company executives led by Javier La Rosa, head of Chevron's Base Assets and Emerging Countries, and officials from state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A (PDVSA) in the presence of acting President Delcy Rodriguez.
• The deals include the increase of Chevron's stake at one of its joint ventures with PDVSA in the Orinoco, Petroindependencia, to 49% from a previous 35.8%. The company also agreed to relinquish two gas blocks that include the coveted Loran offshore field and its stake at a small oil project in western Venezuela, while receiving a new oil area, Ayacucho 8, as part of its existing Petropiar project, also in the Orinoco, the company's largest.
• The deals give Chevron, PDVSA's main joint ⁠ venture partner, a strong foothold to expand heavy oil projects in the country amid expected increased competition with foreign companies. Chevron's asset swap with PDVSA and its subsidiaries is "a mutually beneficial agreement, which will consolidate all parties' focus on strategic assets in the country," the company said in a release after the event.
• Given these changes, Chevron could increase output in Venezuela by about 50% in the next ⁠ two years within its existing footprint. The company's joint ventures with PDVSA are producing 260,000 barrels per day of crude, about a fourth of the country's total output. The agreements will allow Venezuela and Chevron "to progress to increase output and secure revenue for the benefit of the people," ⁠ Rodriguez said during the broadcast event.

(Source: Reuters)

• The International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) on April 14, 2026, titled "Global Economy in the Shadow of War". It warned that the outbreak of war in the Middle East at the end of February 2026 has significantly threatened global economic momentum.
• Under the IMF's reference forecast¹, global growth is projected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. This is down from 3.4% in 2024-25 and well below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000-2019. The forecast for 2026 is revised downward by 0.2 percentage points and that for 2027 is unchanged, compared with those in the January 2026 WEO Update.
• Additionally, global headline inflation is expected to increase to 4.4% in 2026 and decline to 3.7% in 2027, marking upward revisions for both years.
• Absent the war, global growth would have been revised upward. Forecasts based on pre-conflict assumptions would have shown a slight upward revision of 2026 growth relative to that forecasted in the January WEO Update, by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%. Hence, the downward revision for 2026 largely reflects the disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East, partly offset by carryover from recent strong data and reduced tariff rates.
• The impact is far from equal across countries. Emerging markets and developing economies face a 0.3 percentage point downward revision to growth, while advanced economies are largely unchanged. The impact on commodity-importing developing nations with pre-existing financial fragilities is described as being much more pronounced".
• In a severe scenario where energy infrastructure in the conflict region suffers significant damage, global growth could collapse to 2.0% in 2026 with inflation rising above 6.0% by 2027. The blow to emerging and developing economies would be nearly twice that felt by advanced economies.
• The IMF called on central banks to remain vigilant against supply shocks destabilising inflation expectations. Governments are being urged to keep any fiscal support targeted and temporary, while countries should cooperate to restore stability in international trade and economic relations.

________________________

¹This assumes the war will be short-lived and disruptions will fade by mid-2026.

(Source: IMF)