• The European Union (EU) gave preliminary approval to a €90Bn loan package for Ukraine, alongside a new round of sanctions on Russia, bringing an end to months of political deadlock and signalling continued financial and strategic support for Kyiv.
• The breakthrough came after Ukraine resumed pumping Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline into Hungary and Slovakia, following repairs to infrastructure damaged earlier in the year, which had halted supplies and triggered the dispute.
• Hungary’s veto led by Viktor Orbán had been contingent on restoring oil flows, and its removal was further supported by Orbán’s recent election defeat, opening the door for a reset in relations with Brussels under incoming leadership.
• The €90Bn facility is viewed as critical support for Ukraine’s war effort and economic stability, with around two-thirds allocated to defence spending and the remainder for broader fiscal and economic support, described by Ukrainian officials as “a matter of life and death.”
• Oil flows through the pipeline are expected to gradually resume, with crude deliveries to Slovakia and Hungary restarting after months of disruption, although volumes remain uncertain and supply conditions are fragile.
• However, broader energy risks persist, as ongoing attacks on infrastructure and shifting Russian export strategies continue to disrupt regional supply chains, highlighting the vulnerability of Europe’s energy system despite diversification efforts.
• In a related development, Russia signalled it will halt some oil flows from Kazakhstan to Germany from May 1, citing technical reasons, which could add further pressure to supply routes even as alternative logistics via ports are being utilised.

(Source: BBC)

• Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) delivered a strong rebound in earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), with net profit increasing 35.9% year-over-year (YoY), supported by steady revenue growth and improved operating efficiency.
• Total gaming income increased to $14.46Bn, up 4.6%, supported by continued growth across both fixed-odd wagering and traditional segments, including lotto and pin codes. The performance reflects improving demand conditions and the normalisation of SVL’s retail operations following hurricane-related disruptions in late 2025.
• Direct cost also rose in line with revenues (+4.6% YoY); however, higher gaming income translated into a 4.5% increase in gross profit to $3.29Bn. As a result, gross margins remained broadly in line with Q1 2025 at 22.8%, indicating effective cost management despite ongoing operational pressures.
• Similarly, operating expenses increased modestly by 4.0% to $2.31Bn on the back of higher selling, general and administrative expenses. Notably, this represents a significant moderation compared to the 32.5% spike in Q1 2025[1]. This normalisation in expense growth, alongside continued investments in technology, retail network upgrades, and expansion initiatives, supported a 26.1% increase in operating profit, with margins improving to 20.9% (Q1 2025: 17.7%). However, finance costs jumped 16.5% to J$256.8Mn but was not enough to offset earnings growth.
• As a result, the improvement in operating performance flowed through to the bottom line, with net profit reaching $703.13Mn and net margins expanding to 4.8% (Q1 2025: 3.7%).
• Overall, the company’s Q1 2026 performance underscored the resilience of the Group’s business, notwithstanding the impact of operational disruptions arising from Hurricane Melissa, which resulted in an estimated $1.6Bn reduction in gross ticket sales over the quarter. The associated negative impact on net profit is estimated at $100Mn.
• Looking ahead, while the lingering effects of Hurricane Melissa may continue to weigh on some of SVL’s business segments, particularly retail-dependent channels, the company’s Q1 performance suggests that operations are stabilising. Within the lottery segment, terminal recovery has reached approximately 98%.
• However, the broader economic effects of the hurricane continue to curtail anticipated growth, reflecting lower sales per terminal. In Supreme Routes Limited, approximately 22% of machines remain offline, mainly located in severely affected parishes. In response, management has implemented targeted measures to mitigate the impact, including the deployment of additional terminals to operational parishes. Furthermore, SVL continues to benefit from solid cash flows and balance sheet flexibility to support ongoing investments while navigating external shocks.
• At the market close on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, SVL’s stock price was J$15.37, down 11.1% since the start of the year. At this price, SVL trades at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.93x, which is below the Main Market average of 24.49x.

___________________

¹ Last year, in addressing the jump in operating expenses, group chairman Garry Peart noted that depreciation following increased CAPEX –driven primarily by capital work in progress, motor vehicles, lottery equipment and leasehold equipment and the absence of a write-back drove the increase. “Last year, the reported figure was about $1.6 billion, but that included a $300 million write-back. So, if we adjust for that, the true base was closer to $1.9 billion. On that basis, the year-over-year increase is actually more in the range of 10 to 12%...”, said Peart on SVL’s Q1 2025 investor briefing.

(Sources: SVL & NCBCM Research)

• The October 2025 hit from Hurricane Melissa translated into a multi-billion-dollar repair for Sangster International Airport (SIA), with Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico^[2] (GAP), SIA’s parent company, flagging roughly US$20Mn (roughly J$3.2Bn) in repair costs tied to storm damage across terminal infrastructure, equipment, and operational areas.
• GAP in its 2025 Annual Report (20-F filing) framed the damage as operationally disruptive but not structurally threatening, noting that while parts of the airport required repairs and temporary closures, overall business continuity was preserved and operations resumed relatively quickly.
• A key financial cushion comes from extensive insurance coverage, with GAP indicating that the bulk of repair and replacement costs should be recovered in 2026 under existing property damage and business interruption policies. SIA has a US$353Mn insurance policy for property damage and business interruption, with a sub-limit of US$100Mn for catastrophic risks. There is also a US$750Mn annual policy covering personal injury and property damage to third parties. The scale of the insurance package reflects the significance of the airport, which handles more than 70% of tourist arrivals into Jamaica.
• That said, the more immediate hit showed up in traffic and demand trends, with passenger volumes contracting sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) by 46.1% and remaining under pressure into early 2026 as tourism-linked capacity across Jamaica lagged recovery. The full year saw an 11.6% reduction in traffic to 4.47 million passengers passing through SIA. Nonetheless, the airport remained the third-busiest for GAP in the Caribbean region, excluding Cuba.
• MBJ Airports Limited still delivered positive earnings, but top-line and profitability metrics softened, reflecting weaker passenger throughput and reduced contributions from both airline activity and commercial concessions. Aeronautical revenue from both local airlines amounted to MXN$1.81BnMn (-3.3%), while Non-aeronautical services brought in MXN$848.88Mn (2.7%). Nevertheless, Profit before tax dipped 3%, with net profit down 2% to MXN$541.94Mn in 2025. MBJ paid US$44.2Mn as concession taxes to the Airport Authorities of Jamaica (AAJ).
• Importantly, GAP signalled no pullback in long-term investment plans, keeping over US$100Mn in capital projects on track through 2030, positioning the repair spend as a short-term setback within a broader expansion and modernisation cycle.

___________________

¹ The company’s wholly owned Spanish subsidiary, DCA, holds a 74.5% stake in MBJA, the concessionaire responsible for operating, maintaining, and developing Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, Jamaica for a term of 30 years beginning on April 12, 2003.

(Sources: GAP & Jamaica Observer)

• South America’s upcoming oil developments, including several in Guyana, are gaining increased importance due to recent developments in the Middle East, Norway-based Rystad Energy said in an April 21 analysis.
• “The Middle East conflict has done more than spike oil prices, it has exposed how dangerously concentrated global supply chains are around the Strait of Hormuz. South America is now positioned as the world’s most consequential source of incremental supply. The region offers scale, geologic quality and relative political stability at exactly the moment that the world is shopping for alternatives,” said Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President, Oil and Gas Research.
• Guyana’s next set of offshore projects awaiting approval are set to unlock a key share of new global oil supply, as markets respond to disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, according to Rystad Energy. Across the region, offshore developments in Guyana, Brazil and Suriname were identified as the most immediate sources of new supply.
• The firm said a sustained US$100-per-barrel oil price could unlock up to 2.1 million barrels per day (b/d) of additional crude supply across South America by the mid-2030s, with a large portion tied to projects that have not yet reached final investment decision.
• Rystad Energy said that if these unsanctioned projects are fast-tracked, they could deliver more than one million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) over the next decade, supported by about US$33.0Bn in greenfield investment through 2035.
• It was noted that the largest gains will come from earlier approvals of new projects, particularly those still awaiting sanction in Guyana’s development queue. The firm also identified limited global shipyard capacity for floating production, storage and offloading vessels as a key constraint that could slow the pace at which new projects are brought online.

(Source: OIL Now)

• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government is assessing new investments and trade deals with Cuba after Havana opened its economy to more private sector participation, potentially allowing Mexican private and mixed-capital firms to expand on the island.
• Mexico is evaluating whether private companies can be involved in reselling Pemex crude to Cuba, framing fuel supply as part of its humanitarian cooperation with the island amid Cuba's prolonged economic and energy crisis.
• Bilateral trade remains modest despite close political ties. In 2025, Mexico exported $758Mn to Cuba (mostly oil and minerals) against just $14Mn in imports.
• Cuba's March structural reform introduces an "investor migration status" letting Cubans abroad invest in private businesses and strategic sectors without losing residency, and President Díaz-Canel has called for immediate changes to the economic model to give private firms and joint ventures a larger role.
• The opening is still partial and tightly regulated, with analysts pointing to continued state controls, chronic foreign currency shortages, and a fragile power grid as lingering drags on Cuba's outlook.
• As at early 2026, the U.S. threat to impose tariffs on countries trading with Cuba, particularly oil suppliers, acts as an economic blockade, pressuring nations like Mexico, Russia, and Venezuela to cease energy shipments. This forces other countries to choose between trading with Cuba or facing severe U.S. trade penalties, creating diplomatic friction, threatening regional energy security, and risking a humanitarian crisis in Cuba

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• The United Kingdom inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 (from 3.0% in February 2026), marking the first clear pass-through of the Iran war into consumer prices, with the Bank of England warning this could reignite the country’s persistently high inflation problem.
• The increase was driven largely by energy, with motor fuel prices jumping 8.7% month-on-month, the largest rise since mid-2022. Factory cost pressures intensified, as producer input price inflation surged 4.4% in March, pointing to further pipeline inflation that could feed into consumer prices in the coming months.
• Underlying price pressures were mixed, with services inflation rising unexpectedly to 4.5%, although partly driven by temporary factors such as air fares, while core inflation edged lower to 3.1%, suggesting limited broad-based pass-through so far.
• Despite the uptick in inflation, economists expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers assess whether higher energy prices will translate into sustained wage growth, particularly given a softening labour market that may dampen second-round effects.
• The outlook underscores rising stagflation risks, with policymakers facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and supporting growth, as the energy shock adds to existing economic weakness and raises the likelihood of a slowdown in the second half of the year.
• Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain elevated and potentially rise further toward 3.5% by mid-2026, with the IMF projecting a peak near 4%, highlighting the persistence of energy-driven price pressures and the uncertainty around the inflation trajectory.

(Source: Reuters)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• The United Kingdom inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 (from 3.0% in February 2026), marking the first clear pass-through of the Iran war into consumer prices, with the Bank of England warning this could reignite the country’s persistently high inflation problem.
• The increase was driven largely by energy, with motor fuel prices jumping 8.7% month-on-month, the largest rise since mid-2022. Factory cost pressures intensified, as producer input price inflation surged 4.4% in March, pointing to further pipeline inflation that could feed into consumer prices in the coming months.
• Underlying price pressures were mixed, with services inflation rising unexpectedly to 4.5%, although partly driven by temporary factors such as air fares, while core inflation edged lower to 3.1%, suggesting limited broad-based pass-through so far.
• Despite the uptick in inflation, economists expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers assess whether higher energy prices will translate into sustained wage growth, particularly given a softening labour market that may dampen second-round effects.
• The outlook underscores rising stagflation risks, with policymakers facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and supporting growth, as the energy shock adds to existing economic weakness and raises the likelihood of a slowdown in the second half of the year.
• Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain elevated and potentially rise further toward 3.5% by mid-2026, with the IMF projecting a peak near 4%, highlighting the persistence of energy-driven price pressures and the uncertainty around the inflation trajectory.

(Source: Reuters)