• The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next month, according to 80% of economists polled by Reuters, marking a slight increase in consensus from last month’s survey. This would represent the third consecutive rate cut, taking the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75%. Of the 105 economists surveyed, 84 expect a cut, while 21 expect no change. The move is intended to support a weakening labour market, which remains a key concern for policymakers.
• Despite growing consensus among economists, there is clear disagreement within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) about whether another rate reduction is warranted this year. The divide is deepened by the absence of key official data amid the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Chair Jerome Powell has warned that a December cut is not a foregone conclusion, following last month’s quarter-point reduction that drew rare dissent in two directions.
• According to Abigail Watt, U.S. economist at UBS, the labour market “still looks relatively weak,” justifying another rate cut. However, she cautioned that the risk for December lies in new data dispelling that sense of weakness. A temporary funding bill approved by the Senate could reopen the government and clear some of the data fog before the Fed’s next meeting. Watt also noted a growing tension between labour market concerns and inflation risks, warning that the Fed’s dual mandate may become harder to balance as inflationary pressures rise.
• The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, has remained above the 2% target for over four years, the longest stretch since 1995. Economists polled expect inflation to stay above 2% through 2027. Josh Hirt, senior economist at Vanguard, cautioned that persistent inflation above target could undermine Fed credibility, especially if public perception shifts suddenly. He also warned against viewing tariff-driven inflation as merely temporary, urging greater policy caution.
• Nearly 70% of respondents to the Reuters poll (36 of 52) said job growth has remained steady since the shutdown began, even as private data indicate job losses. Sixteen economists reported that hiring had worsened, while none said it improved. The unemployment rate, last recorded at 4.3% in August, is expected to remain steady this quarter and rise modestly to 4.5% next year.
• The U.S. economy, which expanded 3.8% in Q2 and an estimated 2.9% in Q3, is forecast to slow sharply to 1.0% in Q4, according to poll medians. Economists expect growth to average around 1.8% annually through 2027, broadly aligning with the Fed’s non-inflationary growth rate estimate.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the third quarter ending September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025), Toll Operator TransJamaican Highway Ltd. (TJH), delivered another quarter of robust earnings growth (+23.7%), buoyed by higher toll collections and lower administrative costs.
• Revenues for the period increased by US$25.57Mn (+16.7% year-over-year) mainly due to higher toll revenue from its Portmore, Spanish Town, Vineyards and May Pen toll booths aided by sustained increases in traffic volumes and the continued expansion of T-tag usage across the network.
• Higher maintenance spending and amortisation of intangible assets which was partially offset by reduced consultancy fees resulted in TJH’s operating expenses (OPEX) growing by 10.4% to US$5.90Mn. Meanwhile, administrative expenses, primarily comprising staff costs, depreciation of plant and equipment and other routine office expenses, were well contained, inching up by just 0.7% to US$2.5Mn.
• With revenue growth outpacing OPEX and administrative expenses, the operating profit margin increased from 75.60% to 76.91% during Q3 2025, while net profit margin expanded to 33.84% from 31.93% for Q3 2024.
• Ultimately, TJH’s strong Q3 performance along with robust performance since the start of the year, supported a 27.5% increase in its nine-month earnings to US$27.99Mn.
• Toll collection across Jamaica’s major highways resumed at 12 a.m. on Monday, November 10, 2025. The suspension, first implemented ahead of Hurricane Melissa’s passage, had been extended to facilitate recovery and relief operations. While there is no confirmed damage to toll infrastructure, the company reportedly absorbed loss of J$41 million per day during the suspension. This means that the upcoming Q4 release may show temporary weakness in performance compared to the same period in 2024.
• Following the passage of Hurricane Melissa, TJH committed J$100 million in relief efforts and the government’s new protocol following the resumption of toll fees allows authorised humanitarian and emergency vehicles to traverse the tolls free of cost.
• At Tuesday’s close, TJH’s stock price was J$4.17, A 10.0% decline year-to-date. At this price, TJH trades at a P/E of 9.1x, which is below 14.1x for the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials average.

(Source: TJH Unaudited Financial Results, JIS, NCBCM Research)

• In an effort to restore essential services in the hurricane’s aftermath, Jamaica Public Service Company (JPS) has now provided power to several communities and are now moving into the business district of Montego Bay. Fairview is fully powered and power has been restored to the section supplying the parish’s liquified natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, a critical area that supplies energy to the JPS Bogue Power plant.
• JPS is prioritising the restoration of electricity in critical service areas before extending efforts to residential communities. The company is now running power from the Bevin Avenue area to Queen’s Drive, which will go to power Sangster International Airport. Cornwall Regional Hospital (CRH), the Bogue treatment plant and the Great River pump station all have had their power restored. The next step will be to re-energize the grids that lead to larger communities, followed by the smaller off-route areas.
• Regarding water supply, Councillor Vernon noted that the National Water Commission (NWC) has resumed distribution to several communities – a development that will significantly aid ongoing clean-up and sanitation efforts.
• The National Emergency Operations Centre (EOC), the national coordinating body for disaster management, activated by the Office of Disaster Preparedness & Emergency Management (ODPEM) in response to Hurricane Melissa, continues to closely monitor all developments to ensure the safe and orderly restoration of essential services. NEOC and parish EOC are working closely with JPS and NWC and are on the pathway to full restoration across the parish of St James. Mayor Vernon urged residents to exercise patience as the recovery process continues, reaffirming that “the mission remains the same – restoration, clean-up, and monitoring.”

(Source: JIS)

• South America will sustain strong final investment decision (FID) momentum through 2030, leading to a cumulative US$197 billion in conventional greenfield spending across oilfields between 2020 and 2030.
• The projection comes from a new report by Norway-based Rystad Energy, which highlights that most of these investments are concentrated in offshore deepwater projects. According to Rystad Energy, “Brazil and Guyana will dominate the region’s oilfield development, while Suriname is positioning itself as the next offshore producer.” The country’s GranMorgu field, formerly known as Sapakara South and Krabdagu, is expected to start up by 2028.
• The report shows that total upstream investment in South America’s oilfields reached over US$46Bn last year, the highest level since 2015. Spending is forecast to grow by 10% this year before easing slightly in the coming years, remaining close to US$50 billion annually throughout the next decade.
• The Norwegian market intelligence firm notes that greenfield developments in Brazil and Guyana’s yet-to-produce assets will lead investment activity, while producing fields in Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia will continue to drive brownfield spending.
• In Guyana, ExxonMobil operates the Stabroek Block, the nation’s only producing offshore asset. Since the first discovery in 2015, around 11 billion barrels of recoverable resources have been identified. Exxon recently reached FID on its seventh project, Hammerhead, and is expected to sanction another, the Longtail development, in 2026

(Source: Oil Now)

• Brazil's inflation slowed more than expected in October, following a rebound in September, data from the statistics agency IBGE showed on Tuesday, fueling expectations of an interest rate cut early next year.
• Consumer prices in Latin America's largest economy rose 0.09% in October, down from a 0.48% increase the previous month, as residential electricity prices fell, IBGE said. Economists in a Reuters poll expected a 0.16% expansion.
• In the minutes of its latest monetary policy decision released earlier on Tuesday, the central bank said that the recent economic developments have reinforced its view that the current 15% rate is adequate to bring inflation back to target. "The minutes to last week's meeting, while less hawkish than those from the preceding meeting, gave no sign that a cut is imminent," Capital Economics' analysts added.
• Daycoval analysts said that the October data does not alter their expectation that interest rates will remain unchanged through the end of the year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Members of the House of Representatives headed back to Washington on Tuesday, after a 53-day break, braving the congestion at the nation's tangled airports for a vote that could bring the longest U.S. government shutdown in history to a close.
• With nearly 1,200 flights canceled on Tuesday due to the shutdown, lawmakers including Republican Representatives Rick Crawford of Arkansas and Trent Kelly of Mississippi said they were carpooling to the Capitol, while Representative Derrick Van Orden said he was making the 16-hour drive from Wisconsin on his motorcycle. "It's going to be a little chilly, but I will do my duty," the Republican lawmaker said in a video posted to social media.
• The Republican-controlled House is due to vote Wednesday afternoon on a compromise that would restore funding to government agencies and end a shutdown that started on October 1 and is now in its 42nd day. The Republican-controlled Senate approved the deal on Monday night, and House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he expects it to pass his chamber as well.
• President Donald Trump is expected to sign it into law. "We're opening up our country. Should have never been closed," he said at a Veterans Day event in Arlington, Virginia. The deal would extend funding through January 30, setting the stage for another potential shutdown showdown and leaving the federal government for now on a path to keep adding about to its $38 trillion in debt.
• Within days, the U.S. government could be fully functional again, bringing relief to federal workers who have missed paychecks and low-income families who depend on food subsidies. However, it could take several days for the nation's air travel system to return to normal. The deal has divided Democrats, who had sought to extend healthcare subsidies for 24 million Americans past the end of the year, when they are due to expire. Senate Republicans have agreed to hold a separate vote on those subsidies in December, but there is no guarantee it will pass the chamber, and Johnson has yet to say whether the House will even hold a vote.

(Source: Reuters)

• Markets are watching to see when Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold his first two-way meeting with the new prime minister, a symbolically important event that would signal both are communicating closely on monetary policy. The BOJ governor typically meets the prime minister days after inauguration, but such a meeting has yet to take place since Takaichi assumed office on October 21.
• In her push to revive growth, Takaichi said she would not rule out a cut to Japan's sales tax, reinforcing market expectations for her administration to prioritise steps to reflate the economy over fixing worsening public finances.
• The remarks signal a major shift from past administrations that stuck to annual fiscal targets and emphasised the need to maintain market trust in Japan's finances, even as they deployed sizable spending packages. "We'll ensure to maintain market trust in Japan's sustainable finances," Takaichi told parliament. "But unless we boost investment, the economy won't grow."
• The administration's focus on expansionary policies could complicate the BOJ's decision on how soon to resume a rate-hike cycle that has been paused due to uncertainty over the economic fallout from higher U.S. tariffs. A draft outline of Takaichi's economic package, seen by Reuters, also said it was "extremely important" for monetary policy to focus on achieving strong economic growth.
• The BOJ kept interest rates steady last month, but its board saw a growing case of raising rates in the near term. The central bank next meets for a rate review on December 18-19, around the time the administration finalises a draft budget for the next fiscal year

(Source: Reuters)

• Fosrich Company Limited (FOSRICH) posted a 101.8% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, swinging to a loss of J$244.05Mn for Q3 2025, as revenues contracted sharply owing to disruption in supplies of both finished goods and raw materials.
• Total revenue fell 22.5% to J$832.0Mn (Q3 2024: J$1.07Bn), reflecting the continued impact of international shipping delays that have disrupted supplies of both finished goods and raw materials. The shortage of key inputs limited Fosrich’s manufacturing output, reducing its ability to meet market demand and contributing to a run-off in inventory balances.
• In addition to the supply slowdown, turnover was further pressured by the sharp decline in global solar panel prices. Therefore, despite achieving higher sales volumes, because price reductions are passed on to customers, the company reported lower total sales income across this critical product line.
• Direct costs declined 4.3% to J$600.9Mn, a slower rate than the revenue contraction, resulting in gross profit margin compression to 27.8% (Q3 2024: 41.6%). The margin erosion reflected both the lower sales volumes and a less favourable product mix.
• Operating expenses rose 1.3% YoY to J$337.3Mn. Against this background, the company reported an operating loss of J$113.89Mn, only a modest improvement from the J$117.49Mn loss recorded in Q3 2024.
• Fosrich’s weak Q3 results compounded its year-to-date performance, with a net loss of J$433.62Mn for the 9M 2025 period, compared to a J$82.32Mn profit a year earlier. Over the nine months, the company faced sustained supply chain disruptions and in the absence of an offsetting reduction in operating expenses, the company reported losses. Although staff costs were relatively flat, increases in audit fees, depreciation, rent, and security expenses, partly linked to the opening of two new branches at Bayside in Montego Bay and Drax Hall in St. Ann and other expansion activities kept expenses elevated.
• Looking ahead, demand for electrical supplies and solar equipment could improve as post–Hurricane Melissa reconstruction activity picks up, though lingering shipping delays related to solar equipment may constrain the pace of recovery in the short term. Management noted that, with “recent developments in the USA market, our global partners, in seeking to broaden and deepen their relationships with their non-USA customers, have offered more favourable credit terms to us,” which the company expects will yield measurable benefits going forward.
• At the market close on Tuesday, Fosrich’s stock price was J$2.17, down 25.9% since the start of the year. At this price, Fosrich trades at a P/B of 7.04x, which is above 4.02x for the Junior Market Distribution average.

(Sources: FOSRICH, NCBCM Research)

• Lasco Distributors Limited (LASD) posted a 33.3% decline in total comprehensive income to J$408.2Mn for Q2 2025, as rising costs outpaced revenue gains. The earnings dip reflected mounting cost pressures despite broad-based revenue growth across key divisions.
• Total revenue rose 6.5% year over year to J$8.13Bn, reversing the 0.8% contraction in Q1. Growth was supported by improved performance across all major divisions, with the Export Division up 19.5% YoY, buoyed by new distribution partnerships with a leading North American retailer. The Nutrition, Food & Beverage, Home Care, and Healthcare categories also delivered solid growth, underscoring healthy domestic and export demand.
• However, with direct cost (+8.0%) outpacing revenue growth, this led to a 0.9% decline in gross profit to J$1.34Bn. Consequently, the gross profit margin slipped to 16.4% from 17.6% in the prior year. gross profit declined (-0.9%) to J$ 1.34Mn. Management noted that direct costs are expected to moderate in the second half of the year as storage costs normalise and the expanded warehouse becomes fully operational.
• Operating expenses climbed 5.7% YoY, driven by higher sales and promotional activities, staff-related expenses, and technology investments. As a result, operating profit declined 19.0%, pushing the operating margin down to 4.4% from 5.8% a year earlier. Financing costs surged 587.4% to J$9.47Mn, amplifying profit decline. The combined effect of weaker margins and higher financing costs due to additional debt reduced net margins to 3.1% from 4.9%.
• For the six-month period, earnings fell 24.5% YoY, extending the decline from Q1 (–18.8%) and underscoring continued strain on margins.
• While the near-term performance remains pressured, management’s focus on cost containment and improved storage efficiency could support better margins in the latter half of the fiscal year. The company is nearing the completion of certain transformational initiatives covering its infrastructure, systems and portfolio which will improve its operational efficiencies, leveraging the investments made in the first half of the year and positioning the core portfolio for continuous improvement. The diversification strategy is expected to continue to deliver solid results, with exports benefiting from expanded distribution and the pharmaceutical division's enhanced distribution agreement framework providing further growth potential.
• Additionally, LASD is expected to participate meaningfully to the extent that their distributions remain uninterrupted. Demand for consumer staples tends to rise following natural disasters as households replace spoiled or lost goods, communities restock, and relief agencies coordinate centralised purchases.
• At the market close on Tuesday, LASD’s stock price was J$3.52, down 11.7% since the start of the year. At this price, LASD trades at a P/E of 10.4x, which is above 17.9x for the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing average.

(Sources: LASD, NCBCM Research)

• The average daily spending of tourists visiting the country has consistently decreased so far this year, going from US$176.67 in the first quarter of 2025 to US$164.83 in the third. According to data from the Central Bank, daily spending in July, August, and September fell below the 2024 average, which stood at US$167.75.
• In the first nine months of this year, the country received a total of 6,575,073 non-resident visitors, 2.3% more than in the same period in 2024, with an estimated average daily expenditure of US$170.17 and a stay of eight nights.
• Between January and September, the average occupancy rate was 75.6%, with Bayahibe-Romana having the highest occupancy at 83.1%, followed by Punta Cana at 82.2%.
• August and September were the months with the lowest occupancy at most of the country’s tourist destinations; however, the reduction was minimal in Bayahibe and Punta Cana, while it was significant in Sosúa-Cabarete and Puerto Plata (Playa Dorada, Costa Dorada, and Cofresí).
• Meanwhile, 86.2% of tourists who visited the country between January and September of this year indicated that recreation was the main reason for their visit. Furthermore, hotels were the predominant accommodation option for 80.2% of visitors.
• Regarding age, 50.1% of visitors were between 21 and 49 years old, 51.7% were women, and 48.3% were men, according to Listín Diario newspaper.

(Source: Dominican Today)