• Britain's economy grew unexpectedly in March to cap another strong first quarter, suggesting it was in better ‌shape as the Iran war escalated, though economists said seasonal distortions were flattering the figures.
• Gross domestic product increased by 0.3% month-on-month in March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, against expectations in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.2% contraction.
• For the first quarter, the economy expanded by 0.6%, marking the third year ​running of conspicuously strong growth in the first quarter. Economists said measurement issues related to shifts in ⁠spending after the pandemic may be contributing to that pattern.
• Raj Badiani, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the stockpiling ​of goods sparked by the Iran war may also have pulled forward demand in March.
• "Nevertheless, recession risks have risen, and we now ​expect the UK economy to contract mildly in the second and third quarters of this year," Badiani said, citing a coming inflation surge caused by higher oil prices and pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
• The ONS said partial spending data for April "pointed to some weakening ​going into the second quarter". It remains to be seen how renewed uncertainty in Westminster - with investors now unsure about the political ​future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer - will weigh on the economic outlook.

(Source: Reuters)

• A wave of dividend declarations from several major Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) Listed companies is poised to inject fresh liquidity into the hands of investors over the coming weeks. This could provide a timely cash flow boost for investors and households ahead of the traditionally high-spending summer period and upcoming back-to-school season.
• Leading the upcoming round of distributions, VM Investments Limited approved an interim dividend of J$0.02 per share payable on June 4, 2026, to shareholders on record as at May 25. This however, represents a reduction relative to its previous payout of J$0.053 per share. One day later, NCB Financial Group Limited is scheduled to pay interim dividend of $0.50 per ordinary stock unit for investors on record as at May 22^nd. The company has maintained the same payout level as its prior distribution
• The flow of shareholder returns will continue later in the month, with Fontana Limited having approved a dividend payment of $0.25 per share, unchanged from its last dividend payment in June 2025. The amount is payable on June 12, 2026, to shareholders on record as at May 28, 2026. Carreras Limited is also set to distribute an interim dividend of J$0.46 per stock unit on June 18, 2026, to shareholders on record as at May 27. Notably, the latest payout represents a 15% increase over its prior distribution, reinforcing Carreras’ longstanding reputation as one of the more consistent dividend-paying companies on the JSE, with a current dividend yield of approximately 6.1%.
• This will be followed by additional payouts from both Pan Jamaica Group Limited and regional conglomerate Massy Holdings Limited (MASSY), which have declared dividends payable on June 25 and June 26, respectively. PJAM declared a first interim dividend of J$0.175 per share down 33.4%, while MASSY announced an interim dividend of TT$0.0354 per share, unchanged from its last dividend amount. Both companies will pay shareholders on record as at May 29.
• Closing out the June payment cycle, Jamaican Teas Limited (JAMT) announced a capital distribution of J$0.025 per ordinary share, a 25.0% increase relative to JAMT’s September 2025 payout. This will amount to approximately J$54.5Mn, payable on June 30, 2026, to shareholders on record as at June 5.
• The momentum in shareholder distributions is also expected to carry into July, with Dolla Financial Services Limited (DOLLA) advising that its Board approved an interim dividend of J$0.037 per ordinary share, payable on July 13, 2026, to shareholders on record as at June 29. This amount, however, marked a 99.7% decline relative to DOLLA’s previous $0.06 payout which marked a 400% increase at that time. 
• The clustering of dividend payments across June and July could provide a meaningful seasonal boost to consumer liquidity, particularly as many Jamaican families begin preparing for the high-spending back-to-school period that traditionally intensifies during the summer months. The payments also come as households and small investors continue to navigate the aftereffects of Hurricane Melissa, which disrupted economic activity in several communities and added pressure to household budgets since late last year.
• Beyond their immediate cash flow benefits, the latest dividend declarations also reinforce the continued importance of dividend-paying equities within the Jamaican stock market, particularly for income-oriented investors seeking recurring returns alongside long-term capital appreciation. The announcements further highlight the earnings resilience and cash-generating capacity of several listed companies despite the challenging operating environment, which may continue to support investor confidence in the local equity market.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Despite continued disruptions stemming from Hurricane Melissa, food distributor Everything Fresh Limited (EFRESH) delivered revenue growth for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026). However, elevated financing costs and hurricane-related operational inefficiencies weighed on profitability, resulting in net profit attributable to shareholders falling to J$28.5Mn (33.1%).
• Revenue increased 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) to J$1.09Bn, supported by continued demand across its operations. Nevertheless, management noted that the business continues to experience lingering disruptions stemming from Hurricane Melissa, including challenges within the hospitality and tourism-linked segments that remain in recovery mode.
• Direct costs also rose at a faster pace than revenues during the quarter, increasing 5.2%. Accordingly, gross profits contracted by 3.7% to J$225.44Mn, while gross profit margins compressed by 150 basis points to 20.7%, down from 22.2%.
• On the operating expense side, administrative and selling expenses saw a marginal improvement (-0.7%), easing slightly to J$170.80Mn from J$172.0Mn in Q1 2025. As a result, the company improved its expense-to-sales ratio to 15.7%, compared to 16.3% in Q1 2025, partially offsetting the pressure from weaker gross margins.
• Nonetheless, operating profit declined 12.7% to J$55.01Mn, while finance costs increased to J$18.9Mn (+10.9%). The combined impact of lower gross profits and higher financing costs weighed on the bottom line. Consequently, net profit margins weakened to 2.6%, relative to 4.0% previously.
• With EFRESH’s US$2.31Mn bond maturing on June 30, 2026, the company is expected to refinance the facility through the capital markets via GK Capital Management Limited, as disclosed in its audited financials. The near-term maturity contributed to a 197.6% increase in current liabilities.
• EFRESH currently trades at a P/E of 54.87x, which is above the Junior Market Distribution Sector Average of 22.49x. The company’s share price has declined by 2.3% year-to-date to J$2.14 at the close of trading on May 13, 2026.

(Sources: EFRESH Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Radio Jamaica Limited (RJL), operating under the RJRGLEANER Communications Group brand, announced on May 12, 2026, that it has entered into a binding agreement with LP Azar Limited for the sale of its North Street property in downtown Kingston, including adjacent lots and parking areas.
• The divestment forms part of the media group’s broader restructuring and modernisation strategy as it seeks to streamline operations, improve efficiency, and sharpen focus on its core print, digital, and broadcast businesses.
• The proceeds from the transaction will support the continued consolidation of operations at the company’s Lyndhurst Road campus, reflecting an ongoing shift toward a leaner operational model amid the evolving media landscape. That said, the transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions and is expected to be completed within approximately 45 days.
• RJR’s ordinary share price closed trading at J$2.12 on May 13, 2026, reflecting a 2.6% decrease year-to-date.

(Sources: Jamaica Stock Exchange & NCBCM Research)

• A new international fiscal report says Guyana's explosive oil production is not only transforming the economy, but also fundamentally changing how the Government earns revenue.
• According to the recently released Revenue Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean 2026 report, Guyana has become a major driver behind declining tax-to-GDP trends in the Caribbean because the country's economy is expanding much faster than its tax collections.  Non-tax revenues in Guyana have surged sharply between 2019 and 2024 as oil production accelerated.
• "Guyana drove the overall decline in tax revenues as a share of GDP in the Caribbean between 2019 and 2024," the report stated. It added that "non-tax revenues increased strongly in Guyana between 2019 and 2024," partially offsetting the decline in tax revenues as a share of GDP.
• According to the report, traditionally, governments rely heavily on taxes such as Value Added Tax (VAT), corporate taxes, income taxes and import duties to finance public spending. However, Guyana's oil production boom is rapidly altering that model. At the same time, the report suggests that revenues flowing directly from the petroleum sector, including royalties, profit oil and other state earnings classified outside traditional taxation are becoming increasingly important to the country's finances.
• The report explained that Guyana's tax-to-GDP ratio fell by 2.4 percentage points in 2024 because economic growth far outpaced increases in tax revenue. Oil-related GDP reportedly expanded by 58% in 2024, while non-oil GDP grew by 13%.  This means that although Guyana may still be collecting more taxes in absolute terms, the economy is growing so quickly due to oil production that taxes now represent a smaller share of overall national output, the report noted.
• The report noted that the Caribbean region's average tax-to-GDP ratio declined to 22.3% in 2024, due largely to falling revenues in Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana's rapid economic expansion. Guyana recorded the lowest tax-to-GDP ratio in the entire Latin America and Caribbean region at 9.2%, far below the regional average of 21.7%.
• Meanwhile, the publication pointed out that countries across Latin America and the Caribbean continue to lose enormous sums due to tax evasion and aggressive tax planning. According to ECLAC estimates cited in the report, the region lost US$433 billion in 2023, equivalent to 6.7% of GDP because of tax evasion and avoidance.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• In Trinidad & Tobago (T&T), macroeconomic stability was maintained in 2025, supported by continued strength in the energy sector and a notable expansion in non-energy activity, according to economist Dr Vaalmikki Arjoon.
• Arjoon highlighted that the energy sector grew by 2.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by increased gas production from the Cypre and Mento fields. "However, the most striking development was recorded in the non-energy manufacturing sector, which expanded by 12.0% over the same period," he said.
• The sector has also demonstrated longer-term resilience, growing by more than 50.0% since the immediate pre-Covid period (Q3 2019), despite ongoing challenges in the private sector, including global supply chain disruptions affecting raw material imports, foreign exchange constraints, and port-related inefficiencies.
• "The food processing industry in the manufacturing sector appears to be the strongest performer, growing by 16% in the first three quarters. Further, 2025 also points to an increase in consumer spending, with point-of-sale purchases increasing by 8.1%," he said.
• In the first quarter of fiscal 2026 (October to December 2025), the economy recorded a modest fiscal surplus of $100 million. "Brent crude is currently hovering around US$105, while the LNG benchmarks used to calculate our gas price, like JKM, Dutch TTF and UK NBP, are all ranging between US$15 and US$20 per mmbtu.
• Indeed, these prices are much higher than the oil and gas prices the budget was predicated on, US$73.25 per barrel and a gas price of $4.25 per mmbtu. This, therefore, strengthens energy revenues for the State, improves export earnings and foreign exchange, and widens our overall fiscal space," said Arjoon. He added that these higher prices, especially if prolonged, could also narrow the overall fiscal deficit projected for the year, or may even produce a small surplus by September 2026.
• "It also means that some portion of the revenues is likely to have been deposited into the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund. Naturally, higher earnings from the energy sector might also cause, at the very least, the ratings outlook to improve from negative to stable, or even to positive," he said.
• Arjoon said while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth of 0.7% in 2026 and 2.95% in 2027, he argued that stronger-than-expected energy revenues could allow T&T to outperform these forecasts. Additionally, improved fiscal space could support higher capital expenditure without increased reliance on borrowing.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• The Bank of England (BoE) will hold borrowing costs at 3.75% this year, a Reuters poll of economists found, though over a third expect at least one ​rate hike as the Iran war fuels an energy price surge that drove up inflation forecasts. Financial markets ‌are more certain, pricing in two rises this year. The BoE said after its meeting last month that the worst-case fallout from the war could lead to "forceful" rate increases, though less damaging outcomes may not require any
• BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted last month that investors should not necessarily expect hikes. ​But at the April meeting, BoE chief economist Huw Pill broke with other Monetary Policy Committee members and ​voted for a rise. "We continue to expect the BoE to remain on hold this year ⁠as financial conditions have tightened and the labour market continues to loosen," analysts at Goldman Sachs said. "That said, we see ​a low hurdle for the BoE to deliver a couple of hikes during the summer if energy price pressures continue ​to build."
• The outlook has become more politically and economically fraught following a bruising local election for Prime Minister Keir Starmer that prompted calls for his resignation. Investors are increasingly uneasy about Britain’s fiscal footing, just as elevated gilt yields and energy risks tighten financial conditions.
• Still, several respondents said ​elevated gilt yields and tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Bank’s work, reducing the need for ​a more aggressive tightening cycle despite mounting inflation risks. The May 11-13 poll's steady outlook comes even as inflation jumped to 3.3% in March and ‌is ⁠expected to peak at 3.6% in the fourth quarter - almost double the central bank's 2.0% target.
• Nearly 40% of the 56 economists surveyed expected at least one rate hike by the end of 2026, up from 23% in the April poll and a sharp shift from earlier this year when nearly all said the next move would be lower. Seven predicted at least one reduction ​in the latest poll. "We are adjusting ​our assumptions for the ⁠impact of the Middle East conflict on the UK economy. Of the three scenarios we set out in March – the good, the bad and the ugly – we are moving our ​base case from the good to the bad," said Elizabeth Martins, senior economist at HSBC. Martins ​now sees two ⁠25 basis point increases this year compared to none predicted in April.
• Last month, policymakers abandoned a single central forecast and instead laid out multiple scenarios, signalling growing uncertainty over how inflation and the broader economy would evolve. Weak growth forecasts were largely left unchanged, with the economy expected to grow 0.8% this year and 1.2% next.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. Senate on Wednesday approved Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve, ​putting the 56-year-old lawyer and financier at the helm as the U.S. central bank grapples with intensifying inflation that may make it hard to push through the interest-rate cuts that President Donald ‌Trump has demanded.
• The vote was 54-45 in the most-partisan-ever U.S. Senate confirmation of a Fed chair. A single Democrat, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, voted with the Republican majority. His swearing-in to the four-year Fed chair term and a concurrent 14-year term as a Fed governor, approved by the Senate on Tuesday, awaits final White House signatures on paperwork sent by the Senate.
• Warsh will take the leadership baton from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends on Friday but who will ​remain a Fed governor. Fed Governor Stephen Miran, currently the central bank's biggest advocate of rate cuts, will vacate his spot on the board to make room for Warsh.
• Expected to be in place to ​chair the Fed's next meeting, June 16 to 17, Warsh joins a central bank whose policymakers are engaged in a debate over the possibility of rate hikes that Trump picked Warsh ⁠to avoid. In the run-up to his first meeting, Warsh may have to navigate a divided group of policymakers with growing support for more hawkish language, indicating that a rate increase is as likely as a rate cut in the coming months. At least five of the Fed's 19 policymakers have said they wanted that change as of April.
• Also in June, Fed policymakers are scheduled to release fresh rate-path forecasts. March's projections for a ​single rate cut this year look increasingly stale as the unemployment rate hovers around 4.3%, indicating the labour market may not need the support of a rate cut. March's projections for a ​single rate cut this year look increasingly stale as the unemployment rate hovers around 4.3%, indicating the labour market may not need the support of a rate cut.
• However, inflation has continued to gain steam. A government report on Tuesday showed consumer prices rose in April at the fastest pace in three years. Financial markets now expect no change to the Fed's 3.5%-3.75% policy rate target this year, with a rate hike as soon as January.

(Source: Reuters)

• For the first quarter ending March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), toll operator TransJamaican Highway Limited (TJH) delivered another stellar quarter of earnings growth (+46.0%), supported by higher toll collections, continued traffic growth and the contribution from the newly integrated May Pen to Williamsfield (1C) leg.
• Revenues increased 29.0% to US$29.03Mn, driven by the Phase 1C leg, which contributed US$3.5Mn, or roughly 12% of total revenue, alongside sustained growth in traffic volumes, increased electronic toll (T-tag) adoption and improved operational throughput. However, other gains and losses, which mainly comprise gains from financial market operations and investment instruments, declined to US$0.19Mn (-77.9%), on account of higher foreign exchange losses.
• Operating expenses rose 20.0% to US$6.55Mn, reflecting higher amortisation, maintenance, insurance and bank charges. Administrative expenses also increased (+11.9%) due to higher staff costs and ongoing investment in organisational development initiatives, which aligned with its long-term growth strategy.
• Despite higher indirect costs, revenue growth significantly outpaced cost increases, resulting in improved profitability during the quarter. Operating profits climbed 28.9% to US$19.88Mn, while operating margins remained steady at 68.5%.
• Lower finance costs (-7.4%), supported by scheduled debt repayments and the redemptions of its 8/0% preference shares, of which 20% has been redeemed as at January 2026, also aided performance. Ultimately, TJH reported net profit of US$13.23Mn, with margins of 45.6% from 40.3% in Q1 2025.
• Looking ahead, TJH is expected to continue benefiting from the integration of the 1C leg, with the two toll plazas projected to contribute approximately US$10Mn in additional annual revenue as traffic volumes continue to build out along the corridor. However, persistently higher fuel prices could temper commuter activity and traffic growth, particularly for discretionary travelling.
• TJH’s ordinary share price closed trading at J$6.90 on May 12, reflecting a 49.7% year-to-date increase. Despite the appreciation in TJH’s share price year to date, its P/E ratio is 14.40x, which is below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 21.20x due to its strong earnings growth momentum.

(Sources: TJH Financials & NCBCM Research)

• Reflecting the absence of fair value and property disposal gains recorded in Q1 2025, Kingston Properties Limited (KPREIT) reported earnings of US$658,957 for the three months ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), down 34.2% from the prior year.  
• That said, underlying operating performance strengthened during the quarter, with rental income increasing 31.7% to US$1.82Mn. Growth was driven by continued portfolio expansion and stronger contributions from the United Kingdom segment (+165%), alongside stable performance across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Management fees also rose 26.7% over the quarter.
• Funds From Operations (FFO) rose 23.6% to US$0.64Mn, reflecting stronger cash earnings from the company’s underlying property portfolio. This improvement is a key indicator of KPREIT’s ability to generate sustainable distributable income, driven by a larger base of recurring rental flows.
• Operating expenses increased modestly by 4.1% to US$607,581, significantly lagging revenue growth. This controlled cost expansion led to improved operations as measured by operating activities before other income, with margins expanding from 60.3% to 69.0%, underscoring the scalability and efficiency of the Group’s income-producing property portfolio.
• Nevertheless, higher net finance costs and the absence of non-recurring gains weighed on reported earnings. Operating profits declined modestly by 1.4% as the prior year included US$371,908 in fair value gains and US$96,639 in gains on disposal of investment properties. Additionally, a tax charge (US$25,520) in the current quarter, compared to a tax credit in Q1 2025, also pressured its bottom-line.
• KPREIT intends to pursue selective high-yielding acquisition opportunities in the U.K. market while advancing local development projects and prioritising growth in FFO through disciplined capital allocation and portfolio expansion. This will likely drive up earnings once operating expenses remain contained. The company also appears poised for an additional public offering (APO) following its August 2025 resolution to increase authorised share capital to an unlimited number of shares. The capital raise would strengthen liquidity, support future acquisitions and accelerate KPREIT’s push toward its US$100Mn asset target.
• KPREIT share price was J$12.50 at the close of trading yesterday, reflecting a 33.0% increase year-to-date. The stock currently trades at a P/E of 18.18x, which is above the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 7.35x.

(Sources: KPREIT Financials & NCBCM Research)