• For the first quarter ending January 2026 (Q1 2026), Scotia Group Jamaica (SGJ) recorded a 2.0% decline in earnings to $4.12Bn as growth in operating income was offset by higher expenses.
• Total operating income (net of credit losses) rose 9.8% year-over-year to $17.90Bn. This growth was underpinned by a robust loan portfolio, which drove a 10.2% increase in net interest income to $13.47Bn. A 7.5% rise in other income and 21.5% ($480.54Mn) jump in net fee and commission income, the latter primarily resulting from optimised card-related expenses, also bolstered operating income.
• Other revenues also increased by $328.92Mn to $462.61Mn due to increased insurance proceeds received from Hurricane Melissa.
• However, annual asset taxes totalling $1.80Bn (a 6% increase over 2025) was among the contributors to a rise in operating expenses (14.7%) to $11.11Bn. Beyond tax obligations, the increase in expenditure also reflects a strategic focus on technology infrastructure, which continues to drive other operating costs.
• Despite the 2.0% decline in Q1, SGJ could see earnings improve post-Melissa. The group’s aggressive loan portfolio growth, particularly within the residential mortgage and commercial sectors, positions its banking segment to capitalise on credit demand surrounding post-Hurricane Melissa reconstruction efforts.
• At the same time, the maturation of its digitisation initiatives should enhance operational efficiency across the group. By simplifying internal processes and improving client engagement, these investments are expected to generate cost efficiencies over time. However, upfront implementation costs and technology investments may weigh on near-term profitability before the full benefits are realised.
• Nevertheless, several risks remain. Rapid loan portfolio expansion could expose the group to higher credit risk if post-storm economic conditions weaken or borrowers face repayment challenges. Additionally, while declining interest rates reduce funding costs, they may also compress lending margins depending on the pace of asset repricing.
• SGJ’s stock price has declined by 5.0% since the start of the year to close at $50.48 on Monday, March 9, 2026. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9x, above the Main Market Financial Sector average of 1.1x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Kingston Wharves Limited (KWL) reported a 32.6% increase in its shareholder profit to $3.46Bn for the year ended December 2025. This improvement was anchored by robust expansion in revenues and fair value gains.
• Revenue increased by 18.3% to $12.67Bn, driven primarily by improvements from both divisions, Terminal and Logistics Services.
• The Terminal Operations Division, its larger segment, contributed $8.40Bn in revenues (+24.0%) and $3.1Bn in Operating profit (+45.0%). This performance was driven by strong growth in the company’s global auto-transshipment business and increased volume in bulk and break-bulk cargo.
• Meanwhile, the Logistics Services Division saw more moderate topline growth, up 7.8% to $4.2Bn, however, operating profit declined by 17.9% to $1.13Bn. This performance primarily reflects a combination of lower levels of activity, reduced rates and higher operating costs.
• KWL successfully protected its assets from the ravages of Hurricane Melissa and maintained uninterrupted operations through proactive preparedness. As Jamaica continues its recovery, KWL’s operations will be integral in facilitating the movement of relief supplies and supporting the wider national restoration efforts. This strategic positioning presents a significant growth opportunity for the Company and could deliver sustained value for shareholders.
• Of note, management has indicated that it will continue to closely monitor market conditions while supporting recovery efforts in tourism and broader national infrastructure. In the near term, the Company is focused on advancing efficiency and cost management initiatives, alongside enhancements to its overall port security architecture to strengthen operational performance. KWL expects that these measures will support revenue and earnings growth over time by enabling the port to service a more diverse customer base and handle a wider range of speciality cargo.
• KW’s stock price has increased by 4.9% since the start of the year to close at $36.14 on Monday, March 9, 2026. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/E) ratio of 14.6x, below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 19.7x.

 (Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• A surge in diesel prices is emerging as the most immediate threat to Brazil's agricultural sector following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, raising costs for producers harvesting a record soybean crop and planting corn they cannot afford to delay. Brazil imports roughly 30% of its diesel needs, leaving farmers exposed as domestic fuel costs rise alongside global oil prices.
• The conflict comes at a particularly sensitive time, as diesel demand is at its seasonal peak. Farmers are hauling soybeans to market, harvesting remaining fields, and wrapping up planting of the second corn crop, which accounts for most of the corn grown in the country. As the world's largest soybean exporter and a major corn supplier, any disruption to Brazil's farm operations carries significant consequences for global grain markets.
• These activities cannot be postponed, industry officials stressed, nor can other critical fieldwork, such as applying fertilisers and pesticides, which also depend heavily on diesel. "Right now, the main issue is the price of diesel. We saw oil move from around $80 to the $100-per-barrel range, and that has caused alarm in the countryside," said Bruno Lucchi, technical director at farm lobby CNA.
• Oil prices jumped above $119 a barrel on Monday before easing somewhat, with Brent crude still trading near $100, up more than 7%, by early afternoon local time. The rise in diesel prices is already being felt even though Petrobras, which supplies most of the market, has not yet adjusted its prices. Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul have also reported diesel delivery problems, with some suppliers allegedly restricting sales as higher oil costs squeeze margins.
• While higher costs or disruptions to nitrogen fertiliser imports from Iran remain manageable for now, since farmers had already secured supplies for the current season, diesel is an immediate and pressing problem. Cleiton Gauer, superintendent at Mato Grosso farm economy institute Imea, noted that diesel and lubricants typically account for about 5% of farm operating costs. Pump prices have reportedly risen by about 1 real per liter across Brazil's center-west and southern regions, with some cases up as much as 1.5 reais.

(Source: Reuters)

• Costa Rica's GDP growth is forecast to slow to 3.9% in 2026, following a 4.6% expansion in 2025, as the economy returns to its pre-pandemic trend rate of around 3.8% real growth. This moderation follows an average annual expansion of 5.4% between 2021 and 2025, with 2025 growth driven primarily by exports (+3.8%) and private consumption (+2.5%), supported by the free trade zone manufacturing sector and 75 basis points (bps) of monetary easing by the central bank (BCCR).
• Private consumption will remain the backbone of growth in 2026, underpinned by a favourable inflation environment and continued monetary easing. The BCCR has cut rates by 575bps since early 2023, bringing the policy rate to 3.25%, with scope for an additional 25bps cut before year-end. Inflation turned negative at -2.53% year-on-year in January 2026, supporting real household incomes alongside a 1.6% minimum wage increase, while unemployment held at a manageable 6.3% in December.
• Export growth is expected to moderate in 2026, partly due to the colón's continued strength, which appreciated a further 4.6% in February to CRC474/USD. However, the impact will be cushioned by ongoing U.S.-Costa Rica trade dialogue, depreciation pressure from a widening current account deficit, and the resilience of free trade zone industries. The services sector, which posted a US$6.5Bn surplus through Q3 2025, remains a key pillar, with high-value advanced manufacturing, business services, and medical devices anchoring the export base. However, tourism may face headwinds from both the strong currency and a rise in domestic crime.
• Public spending and fixed investment are expected to see only modest gains under President Laura Fernández, who has pledged to maintain fiscal consolidation. Government consumption contributed just 0.2pp on average to annual growth under her predecessor, and while Fernández has signaled some targeted spending on security and infrastructure, the scope for stimulus remains limited. Lower interest rates and continued inflows into high-value industries should provide some support to private investment.
• Risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside, driven primarily by fiscal constraints and deteriorating security conditions. Costa Rica's elevated public debt could force strict adherence to the country's debt-anchored fiscal rule, curtailing growth stimulus. Meanwhile, if crime is not brought under control by the new administration, it risks dampening business activity and discouraging multinational investment in the country.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• With oil spiking to $100 a barrel and the job market essentially paralysed, the threat of stagflation again is looming over the U.S. economy and financial markets. High inflation and slow growth present a double threat, as stimulative measures such as interest rate cuts and government spending only aggravate inflation. In contrast, persistently higher prices can dampen the labour market and consumer spending, which together drive more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
• Markets were rattled again on Monday, March 9, 2026, over the prospect of prolonged fighting in the Middle East, with U.S. crude oil soaring past the $100 a barrel mark for the first time since 2022. The surge in energy costs came just a couple days after the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026 while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, continuing a pattern of stagnant job growth that began in early 2025.
• At the same time, core inflation as measured through the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge last stood at 3%, a full percentage point above the central bank's target. Bond yields have mostly risen during the Iran crisis, indicating investors are pricing in an inflation scare from the oil price surge, while markets are paring back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• If the oil shock persists, the Fed's dual mandate would be stuck between the increasing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment. Market veteran Ed Yardeni said he has raised his odds of 1970s-style stagflation to 35% as the Iran war is the latest stress test of the U.S. economy's resilience since the start of the decade.
• Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, futures traders were pricing in June for the next Fed rate cut, with at least one more before the end of year. However, that first cut has now been pushed out to September, July at the earliest, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will focus on defending its 2% inflation goal while waiting for more data on risks to inflation and employment.

(Source: CNBC)

• The war in Iran and soaring energy prices could fundamentally alter Europe's economic prospects, but the European Central Bank (ECB) should take its time to reassess policy and stay on its present course for now, three policymakers said on Tuesday. Markets have been pricing rate hikes from the ECB over the past week on the premise that surging energy costs will quickly feed into consumer prices and the bank will want to prevent such price pressures from perpetuating rapid inflation.
• Austrian central bank chief Martin Kocher said it is also crucial not to act hastily but rather to think carefully and consider the scenario thoroughly, while at the same time waiting to see how the situation develops. He said the aim was to manage interest rate developments to ensure inflation does not become entrenched, adding that the ECB was prepared to respond quickly and clearly if needed.
• Financial markets, which fully priced in a rate hike by mid-year on Monday, now see just a 50% probability of such a move. But that is still a big change compared to two weeks ago when investors saw steady rates all year, with a small chance of a rate cut, due to weak inflation.
• Lithuania's central bank chief Gediminas Simkus said the ECB should not reassess policy with every market move, given exceptional volatility, and should stay calm, taking stock at its next meeting on March 19. He said that if you start thinking about monetary policy in the morning, you may end up with very different thinking in the evening.
• Estonia's central bank chief, Madis Muller, also made the case for a measured response and said the ECB needed to weigh whether the energy price shock was temporary or a longer-lasting shift. He added that even if the ECB should not rush into decisions, the probability of the next change in the policy rates now being more towards an increase rather than the opposite has gone up in the last couple of weeks.

(Source: Reuters)

• When Hurricane Melissa swept through the region, its effects rippled beyond infrastructure and into the earnings of tourism-linked companies. The storm disrupted operations at Express Catering Limited (ECL) and also weighed on Margaritaville Turks Limited (MTL). MTL operates in the Turks and Caicos, where Melissa passed as a Category 2 hurricane and dented the company’s topline performance as some cruise ships were forced to divert to alternate routes. Even so, when the dust settled, the companies’ December quarter results told two different stories.
• For MTL, earnings increased by 27.9% to US$205.36Mn for the quarter ended November 2025. This performance was largely driven by lower costs of sales and administrative expenses, which countered a reduction in revenues.
• Revenue declined by 13.4% to US$1.65Mn, reflecting a 15.1% decrease in total passenger arrivals at the Grand Turk Cruise Centre. This decline occurred as major cruise lines changed their itineraries and diverted ships to safer regional ports to avoid Hurricane Melissa.
• However, a 25.5% decline in direct costs to US$384.21Mn outpaced revenue declines, supporting a 177-basis-point expansion in gross margin to 76.7%. Administrative expenses also declined by 15.7% to US$0.98Mn, which further mitigated the revenue decline and supported earnings growth.
• In contrast, ECL recorded a loss of US$536.68Mn as revenues, which were more severely affected by Melissa, declined and overpowered its cost savings.
• ECL’s quarterly revenues were cut by 40.4% or US$2.10Mn to US$2.97Mn. Although the company sustained physical damage to its infrastructure, the more significant impact came from damage to major hotel chains and widespread flight cancellations. As a result, passenger traffic through the departure lounge declined by approximately 157,000 compared to the prior quarter, with November accounting for just under 133,000 of the shortfall.
• In line with its lower revenues, COGS fell by 44.3% to US$803.91Mn, while its operating expenses decreased 13.5%, reflecting lower administrative (-19.0%) and promotional expenses (-83.7%). In aggregate, costs were down US$1.033Mn. However, this was insufficient to counterbalance the significant drop in revenue.
• While both firms anticipate 2026 to be a challenging transition year due to hurricane-related dips in passenger traffic, their recovery trajectories are diverging. MTL is focused on restoring ship schedules and increasing "spend per head" to offset the revenue shortfall seen in Q2, whereas ECL faces a steeper climb, as winter visitor arrivals are trailing prior years by up to 40%, with normalisation not expected until late 2026.
• MTL’s stock price has declined by 6.3% since the start of the year to close at $13.44 on Wednesday, March 4, 2026. At this price, the company trades at a P/E ratio of 3.0x, which is below the Main Market Sector average of 25.3x. Meanwhile, ECL’s stock price has declined by 4.9% since the beginning of the year to close at $2.49 on Tuesday, March 4, 2026. At this price, the stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 7.7x, which is below the Junior Market Sector’s average of 19.0x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Buoyed by improvements across its four business segments, earnings for Sagicor Group Jamaica (SJ) increased by 75.6% to $16.22Bn for the 2025 financial year (FY 2025). Its operations span Long-term Insurance (LTI), Short-term Insurance (STI), Investment Banking and Commercial Banking segments.
• LTI earnings grew by 53.5% to $9.32Bn, supported by a 13.3% increase in revenues to $22.40Bn. A 7.5% increase in the release of Contractual Service Margin^[1] (CSM) and a 23.7% increase in new CSM business generation lifted revenues. The segment also benefited from a doubling of “interest income earned and capital gains” to $16.21Bn and the absence of a one-off actuarial model adjustment that led to unusually high insurance expenses in FY 2024.
• The STI segment also had robust earnings growth (135.7% to $3.38Bn) driven primarily by new business sales of $1.10Bn, primarily from the corporate client portfolio. Further, while expenses increased as a result of increased claims arising from Hurricane Melissa, it was offset by reinsurance recoveries.
• Meanwhile, the investment banking segment enjoyed an 86.4% earnings increase to $1.67Bn as net investment income rose by 50% to $4.55Bn amid higher net trading income of $1.26Bn.
• That said, growth was more modest in SJ’s commercial banking segment (5.0%). The segment recorded a 10% increase in revenue, driven by higher net interest income and increased transaction volumes across its card payment portfolios. Loan portfolios continued to expand, with $36.97Bn in new loans issued, contributing to a $2.01Bn rise in interest income.
• In a move designed to unlock value through enhanced scale and operational efficiency, the Group has entered a landmark agreement to merge Sagicor Life Inc. into a unified Caribbean holding structure (Sagicor Group Caribbean).
• SJ’s stock price has risen by 1.3% since the start of the year to close at $40.69 on Tuesday, March 3, 2026. At this level, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.4x, which is above the Main Market Financial Sector average of 1.1x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

^[1] Contractual Service Margin represents the unearned profit of an insurance contract that an insurer expects to earn as it provides coverage over the life of the contract.

• On March 2, 2026, Moody's Ratings affirmed LATAM Airlines Group S.A. (LATAM’s) Ba2 corporate family rating and the Ba2 ratings on its senior secured notes. It also revised the outlook to positive from stable, reflecting expectations of further improvement in credit metrics and liquidity over the next 12–18 months.
• The Ba2 rating reflects the company’s scale, strong network connectivity, and leading positions across key domestic and international markets in Latin America, supported by a diversified business portfolio of air transportation services, strategic alliances, improved capital and cost structures, and very good liquidity that positions the company to manage industry volatility.
• Operating performance remained robust in 2025, further strengthening LATAM's credit metrics. This provides the company with a reasonable cushion to withstand potentially weaker market conditions. Driven by sustained improvements in cost discipline and a disciplined approach towards capacity and airfares, Moody’s-adjusted EBIT margin grew to 14.8% (from 14.1% in 2024). Adjusted leverage improved to 2.1x, while free cash flow of $324Mn was generated. Leverage is expected to remain between 1.5x–2.0x over the next 12–18 months, alongside a projected cash balance of $2.0–$2.5Bn, well above the company's minimum cash requirements.
• LATAM has a very good liquidity profile, supported by $2.2Bn in cash at the end of 2025, a manageable debt maturity profile (with $1.5Bn due before the end of 2027), and $1.85Bn in revolving committed credit facilities, of which $1.58Bn remained available. Operating cash flow to be around $3.0–$3.5Bn over the next 12–18 months, which is sufficient to cover annual capex needs by approximately 1.3x and support positive free cash flow generation.
• LATAM’s credit rating could be upgrade if adjusted leverage remains below 3.0x and interest coverage above 5.5x on a sustained basis, alongside strong liquidity and positive free cash flow even during fleet expansion. Conversely, downward pressure on its rating could arise if leverage exceeds 4.0x, interest coverage falls below 4.0x, liquidity weakens, or demand and profitability shocks result in sustained cash burn.

(Source: Moody’s Ratings)

• Venezuela's oil exports fell 6.5% in February 2026 from a month earlier to some 737,000 barrels per day (bpd), as more shipments to the United States and Europe could not fully offset the loss of what had been the OPEC country's main market, China.
• Washington has controlled the South American nation's oil exports since early January 2026, when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Trading houses Trafigura and Vitol and U.S. producer Chevron are now exporting the lion's share of Venezuela's barrels under U.S. authorisations.
• Even as Chevron and the traders sent more cargoes to the U.S., Europe and the Caribbean last month, the increase was not enough to compensate for a 67% decline in exports to Asia, which averaged some 48,000 bpd, compared with 145,000 bpd in January 2026 and more than 600,000 bpd last year. A lack of very large crude carriers to transport bigger cargoes also limited exports from Venezuela, whose main oil port, Jose, handles about 70% of total shipments, creating a need for larger vessels to reduce loading times. Exports are expected to accelerate in March 2026, particularly to India, with at least half a dozen super tankers navigating to Venezuela to pick up cargoes.
• Overall, oil exports in February 2026 were 6.5% lower than in January 2026 and stood 19% below the same month of 2025. Meanwhile, Venezuela's direct exports to the U.S. rose 32% to about 375,000 bpd in February 2026, while shipments to Europe increased ninefold to 158,000 bpd, with Spain's Repsol leading purchases in that region.
• The U.S.-Iran conflict and fresh licenses granted by the U.S. Treasury Department in recent weeks are also expected to expand the pool of companies exporting and refining Venezuelan oil, which could ⁠lead to cargoes reaching new destinations. Notably, faster exports could help drain inventories, which remained high at the end of February at 12.7 Mn barrels in Jose, the second-highest monthly level since 2025, and 26 Mn barrels in the country.

(Source: Reuters)