• U.S. job growth rebounded more than expected in March as a strike by healthcare workers ended and temperatures warmed up, but downside risks for the labour market are mounting from a war with Iran that has no clear end in sight. The biggest increase in nonfarm payrolls in 15 months, ​and also the largest since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, followed a sharp decline in February, the Labour Department's closely watched employment report showed on Friday.
• Nonetheless, the rebound exaggerates the labour market's health. The ‌average workweek was shorter last month, and annual wage growth increased at its slowest pace in nearly five years. While the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in February, that was because 396,000 people dropped out of the labour force, more than offsetting weakness in household employment. The labour force participation rate fell below 62% for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs last month, the most since December 2024, after a downwardly revised 133,000 drop in February, the Labour Department's Bureau of Labour Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters ​had forecast payrolls rising by 60,000 jobs after a previously reported 92,000 decrease in February.
• Estimates ranged from a loss of 25,000 positions to a gain of 125,000 jobs. The economy has experienced ⁠months of positive and negative payrolls since May last year, with volatility intensifying this year. Economists attributed some of the choppiness to the birth-death model, which the government uses to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in ​a given month. Others blamed uncertainty related to Trump's sweeping import tariffs, which have since been struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump, however, responded by imposing a global tariff for up to 150 days.
• March's employment report likely has no impact on the interest rate outlook, with the effects of supply chain disruptions from the conflict still to work their way through the economy. The odds of a rate cut this year have greatly diminished. The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range last month.

(Source: Reuters)

• The euro zone's private sector expansion weakened sharply in March as the Middle East war drove up energy costs and disrupted supply chains, with overall demand - ​a key gauge for economic health - falling for the first time in ‌eight months.
• The S&P Global euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 50.7 in March from 51.9 in February but was slightly higher than a preliminary estimate of ​50.5. PMI readings above 50.0 indicate growth in activity.
• The encouraging signs of growth seen earlier in the year have been eradicated thanks ​to surging energy prices, choked supply chains, financial market volatility and a renewed downturn ​in demand, Williamson added.
• Services activity barely rose, with the business activity index sliding to 50.2 from ‌51.9 ⁠in February - its weakest reading in 10 months. Manufacturing output growth remained solid.
• Employment declined while business confidence dropped, raising concerns ​about future hiring and ​investment. Input cost inflation ⁠surged to its highest in slightly more than three years, with manufacturing seeing a record one-month jump. Firms raised prices charged to ​customers at the fastest pace since February 2024, though the ​increase was ⁠more modest than the spike in their own costs.
• Headline inflation in the bloc jumped above the European Central Bank’s 2% target last month, hitting 2.5% from 1.9% as soaring oil and ⁠gas prices ​intensified the dilemma between safeguarding growth and curbing ​inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• Given the extensive damage caused by Hurricane Melissa, the Jamaican economy contracted by a steep 7.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025) compared to Q4 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). With both the extent of the destruction and the disruptions to business activity, both the Goods-Producing and Services industries contracted, falling by 10.7% and 5.9%, respectively.
• In the Goods-Producing sector, all industries contracted. Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing were among the hardest hit, declining by 17.7%, as the hurricane destroyed both crops and livestock. Its impact on the western end of the island caused lower crop yields, delayed planting schedules, and the loss of livestock intended for slaughter during the period. Mining and Quarrying experienced the steepest contraction of 37.5% as hurricane-related damage to equipment and infrastructure caused downtime and lost production days. Manufacturing and Construction also contracted by 8.1% and 2.5%, respectively, reflecting both direct and indirect effects of the storm.
• Within the Services sector, most industries experienced declines. Accommodation and Food Services contracted by 31.0%, as hotel closures in the western parishes coincided with a 43.0% decline in foreign arrivals to the island. Transport and Storage declined by 7.5%, reflecting reduced airport activity and lower tourism-related travel. Additionally, Electricity, Water Supply, and Waste Management fell by 11.7% due to damage to the electricity grid, which also disrupted water supply across affected areas, while Information and Communication fell by 12.6%. Other industries, including Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair and Installation of Machinery and Equipment, Real Estate and Business Activities, and Education, Health, and Other Services, declined by 2.2%, 3.5%, and 6.8%, respectively. Financial and Insurance Activities (+1.4%) and Public Administration and Defence (+2.2%) were the only exceptions.
• Compared to the previous quarter (July–September 2025), total value added at constant prices (seasonally adjusted) fell by 7.3%. Services and Goods-Producing Industries declined by 6.2% and 10.5%, respectively.
• Despite the disruptions in economic activity in the final quarter of the year, preliminary estimates indicate that for the full calendar year 2025, total real-value-added increased marginally by 0.1%, supported by modest growth of 1.2% in the Goods-Producing sector.
• Looking ahead, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) expects economic recovery in 2026 as reconstruction efforts from Hurricane Melissa advance and tourism-related activity, particularly in the western parishes, resumes. The Central Bank projects that real GDP will expand within the range of 1.0% to 3.0% for fiscal year 2026/27. However, downside risks persist, particularly related to the potential adverse impact of the conflict in the Middle East on global energy prices, consumer disposable incomes, production costs and sentiment on key service industries such as the Tourism sector.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Government of Jamaica (GOJ) is intensifying its push to revitalise the country’s manufacturing industry. The GOJ expects to achieve this through targeted incentives and policy reforms aimed at boosting investment, enhancing competitiveness, and reducing reliance on imports.
• Central to this effort is a range of initiatives designed to lower production costs and encourage expansion. Among them is the Productive Input Relief (PIR) programme, which allows approved manufacturers to import raw materials, machinery, and intermediate goods duty-free, while benefiting from reduced administrative fees and tax deferrals.
• The recently introduced Accelerated Capital Allowance regime is also playing a key role, enabling businesses to write off capital investments more quickly. This measure is expected to improve cash flow and support companies in upgrading equipment, expanding operations, and increasing productivity.
• While acknowledging ongoing challenges such as high energy costs, limited access to financing, labour shortages, and regulatory inefficiencies, State Minister in the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Hon. Delano Seiveright, said: “the Government continues to work across ministries and agencies to address these constraints and create a more enabling environment for manufacturers”.
• This policy direction, he shared, “is already supporting private-sector growth and expansion”, as demonstrated by the recent opening of the SEEK Factory and Warehouse Hub by Stationery & Office Supplies Limited (SOS) in Kingston. SOS, which is listed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, generated approximately J$1.8Bn in revenue in 2024 and has long served as a key supplier to businesses, educational institutions, and government entities across the island.
• The newly unveiled facility represents an investment of J$185Mn and is expected to significantly boost production capacity by 300%. This expansion is being driven by the integration of automated bookmaking technology and streamlined end-to-end operations. The State Minister further highlighted the development as a strong example of how strategic investments, supported by Government policy, can enhance local manufacturing capabilities and position Jamaican companies for greater growth.

(Source: JIS)

• Gasoline import costs in Guyana surged by 38.5% between February 22 and March 17, 2026, according to the Guyana Energy Agency (GEA).
• The increase reflects the country’s high exposure to global refined fuel markets despite its status as a crude oil producer. Benchmarks like Brent are above US$100 per barrel, owing to the US–Iran conflict, causing higher crude prices, tighter global inventories, and rising shipping costs.
• Guyana’s inability to refine crude domestically means it remains fully dependent on imported gasoline, with domestic fuel prices closely tracking international benchmarks. It also limits the extent to which the country can insulate its economy from global price volatility.
• With projections suggesting crude prices could remain above ~US$95 per barrel and potentially spike higher under escalation scenarios, the country faces continued upward pressure on fuel import costs and inflation.
• From a sovereign perspective, higher import costs could widen the current account deficit (outside of oil exports) and increase fiscal pressures, particularly as the government absorbs part of the shock through policy measures.
• The government has maintained a 0% excise tax on fuel since 2022. It was reaffirmed in the 2026 Budget, providing short-term relief to consumers. However, it represents a foregone revenue stream, which may constrain fiscal flexibility if elevated prices persist.
• While rising crude prices support Guyana’s oil export revenues, the mismatch between crude exports and refined product imports underscores a structural gap in the energy value chain. This leaves the sovereign partially exposed to both positive (export windfall) and negative (import cost inflation) oil price effects.
• Overall, the development presents a mixed credit impact: positive via stronger oil revenues, but offset by imported inflation, fiscal trade-offs, and external vulnerability to global energy market disruptions.

(Source: OIL Now)

• Passenger traffic through Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA¹) in the Bahamas is projected at 80,000–85,000 over the Easter weekend, slightly above the 79,222 recorded in 2025. This growth would continue a longer-term upward trend that saw volumes reach 3.99 million in 2019 and a record 4.06 million in 2024.
• The expectations are supported by strong airlift, coordinated destination marketing, and 2,658 aircraft movements recorded during the same Easter period last year.
• The projected Easter surge signals resilient short-term demand and continued post-pandemic normalisation, reinforcing The Bahamas' competitiveness as a premium Caribbean destination.
• LPIA functions as the central node in The Bahamas' tourism value chain, directly facilitating high-spending stopover visitors who contribute significantly to hotel occupancy, employment, and domestic consumption. This makes passenger throughput a leading indicator of tourism sector performance with direct spillovers into GDP growth, foreign exchange earnings, and government revenues via VAT, departure taxes, and tourism-related activity.
• Operated by Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) under a public-private partnership model, LPIA benefited from a US$409 million redevelopment in 2013 alongside Vantage Group. This expanded capacity and improved passenger processing, thus positioning it as a regional aviation hub. As NAD marks 19 years of managing the gateway, the milestone reflects sustained institutional capacity, with focus now on efficiency and passenger experience ahead of its 20th anniversary in 2027.

________________________

¹Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA) is the primary international gateway to The Bahamas, handling the majority of stopover air arrivals from the United States, Canada, and Europe, making it systemically important to tourism flows and foreign exchange generation.

(Source: EW News)

• Factories across the world faced soaring input costs and supply chain disruptions in March 2026 due to the Iran war, as underlying tepid demand threatened to undermine the manufacturing sector's fragile recovery. The conflict has disrupted global logistics networks, causing delivery delays, pushing up input price inflation and distorting headline growth measures.
• Headline Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) numbers, usually a sign of increased activity, were falsely elevated by the supply shock lengthening delivery times, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. That was the case for the headline euro zone reading, while in Asia, many economies saw it fall, a sign that surging fuel costs and heightening uncertainty from the Iran war were taking a toll.
• Wednesday's S&P Global euro zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.6 in March from February's 50.8, higher than a preliminary estimate of 51.4. A reading above 50.0 would normally indicate growth in activity. In Britain, outside the European Union, cost pressures soared, and delivery delays due to ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz were the longest since mid-2022.
• The findings highlight the challenge policymakers face in Asia, a region that buys about 80% of the oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, making many countries vulnerable to the hit from the energy shock caused by the war. Manufacturing activity slowed across much of Asia, including Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines, while Japan also saw a hit from rising costs. South Korea was an outlier with factory activity expanding at the strongest pace in more than four years, led by semiconductor demand and new product launches.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices on Wednesday morning dipped about 2% as U.S. President Donald Trump signalled that the United States may wind down its military operations in Iran soon, while threatening to quit NATO for its lack of support in the Middle East operation.
• Iran announced the previous day that it was ready to reach a resolution or intensify attacks on U.S. assets and its allies, without offering more details on how this would be achieved. Two Pakistani sources told Reuters that neither side had responded to Islamabad's proposal for a temporary ceasefire.
• Oil prices eased in Wednesday’s session on hopes of quick de-escalation. Brent crude for May delivery was down 1.9% to $102.01/bbl. Prices remain more than 40% above late February levels when the war broke out.
• Further, illustrating the ⁠impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil ‌output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dropped by 7.5 Mn barrels per day in March from the previous month, as producers were forced to cut output because storage is full. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) head, Fatih Birol, oil supply disruptions from the Middle East will increase in April and will hit Europe as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hits exports further.
• Analysts expect that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be slow to return to levels before the conflict, even if a ceasefire is announced. "Even if the Strait reopens, clearing the vessel backlog would take time, with production, exports and LNG flows normalising only gradually rather than immediately," ING said.

(Source: Reuters)

• As expected, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced it had maintained the policy rate at 5.50% on March 31, 2026. It also noted it would continue targeted measures to support stability in the foreign exchange (FX) market. The decision comes amid heightened global uncertainty, particularly stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which is in its fifth week. It also reflects the Bank’s view that the current policy stance remains appropriate to guide inflation back toward its 4.0%–6.0% target over the medium term.
• Although headline inflation remained below the Bank’s target range at 3.9% in February 2026, the MPC noted that inflation is expected to trend upward over the course of the year and could temporarily exceed the target. This anticipated increase is largely driven by sharp rises in international commodity prices, especially oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and fertilisers, as well as higher global shipping costs. These developments are expected to translate into increased domestic energy and transportation costs, placing upward pressure on overall price levels.
• Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel prices, is also projected to rise above the target range during 2026. This outcome would reflect second-round effects from higher input costs as well as the pass-through of elevated inflation expectations among businesses and consumers. Additionally, domestic factors such as government tax measures and stronger spending linked to post-hurricane recovery efforts are expected to further contribute to inflationary pressures.
• In this context, the MPC highlighted that risks to the inflation outlook over the next two years are skewed to the upside. The key concern is the potential for a prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to further increases in commodity prices and exacerbate imported inflation. Higher-than-expected inflation expectations and stronger domestic demand could also amplify price pressures. However, weaker consumer purchasing power could temper demand and partially offset these risks.
• The BOJ continued to monitor key indicators and risks. It shared that private-sector credit growth has slowed, indicating some moderation in economic activity, while the financial system remains stable with adequate capital and liquidity buffers. Additionally, Jamaica’s strong foreign reserves position also continues to provide an important cushion against external shocks and supports orderly conditions in the FX market. The central bank projects that real GDP will expand within the range of 1.0% to 3.0% for fiscal year 2026/27. However, downside risks persist, particularly related to the potential adverse impact of higher global prices on key service industries such as the tourism sector.
• Overall, the MPC signalled a cautious but steady approach, emphasising its readiness to adjust policy if inflationary pressures intensify or become more persistent. The Bank remains focused on anchoring inflation expectations and mitigating second-round effects, particularly if the global shock proves prolonged and continues to pass through to domestic prices.

(Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• Data released by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) shows the unemployment rate for January 2026 edged down to 3.6% from 3.7% in January 2025. The unemployment rate fell not because more people found jobs, but largely because fewer people were counted as part of the labour force.
• Jamaica’s labour force declined by 2.24% to 1,441,000. This decline corresponded with a 4.8% increase in the number of persons outside the labour force to 714,800 individuals. This rise was evenly distributed across genders, with 16,900 more males and 16,100 more females classified as outside the labour force, reinforcing the trend of declining participation. Consequently, the labour force participation rate weakened to 66.8%, down from 68.4% in January 2025, signalling reduced engagement in economic activity.
• The number of persons employed also declined by 2.1% to 1,389,400. Employment among males declined by 2.0% to 747,700, while the number of employed females fell by 2.2% to 641,800. Youth employment also declined by 11.1% to 149,500. Ultimately, the marginally faster decline in the labour force relative to employed people translated to a faster decline in the number of unemployed persons (-5.5%).
• With the number of unemployed persons declining by 5.5%, a faster rate than the 2.4% decline in the labour force, the unemployment rate consequently decreased.
• Nevertheless, the decline may be masking emerging labour market pressures, particularly in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa. The hurricane’s impact, especially across the western parishes of Jamaica, disrupted key sectors such as tourism, agriculture, and small business activity, which likely contributed to job losses and reduced labour force participation. The lower unemployment rate appears to reflect not only fewer persons actively seeking work, but also hurricane-related displacement and temporary withdrawal from the labour market, rather than sustained, broad-based job creation.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)