• U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January 2026 and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% (from 4.4% in December 2025), signs of labour market stability that could give the Federal Reserve room to keep interest rates unchanged for some time while policymakers monitor inflation.
• U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January 2026. However, the largest increase in payrolls in 13 months reported by the Labour Department on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, likely exaggerates the labour market's health, as revisions showed the economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025 instead of the previously estimated 584,000. That is a fraction of the 1.459 million jobs added in 2024.
• President Donald Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies continued to cast a shadow on the labour market, economists said, cautioning against viewing the surge in payrolls in January 2026 as marking a material shift in conditions. They noted that other indicators, including job openings, pointed to a tepid labour market, adding that job growth remained concentrated in the healthcare and social services industries, which accounted for nearly all the rise in employment.
• Notably, healthcare employment increased 82,000, the most since July 2020, which is well above the monthly average of 33,000 in 2025, leading some economists to conclude that January's increase was a fluke. "I am skeptical that the degree of vigor seen in these data will be consistently repeated going forward, but this release should slam the door shut on the narrative that the labour market is on the cusp of falling apart," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
• Manufacturing employment rebounded slightly but has lost more than 80,000 jobs since Trump returned to the White House. Trump has defended tariffs on imported goods as necessary to revive factories. There were minor job gains in the retail, utilities, and leisure and hospitality sectors. The financial sector shed another 22,000 jobs. Job losses were recorded in the transportation and warehousing, information, as well as mining and logging industries.
• Though traders are still betting the U.S. central bank will next reduce its policy rate in June 2026, they see an almost 40% chance it will not move then, up from about 25% before the data. The Fed last month left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range.

(Source: Reuters)

• The U.S. government in January 2026 ran up a smaller deficit than a year ago, while tariff collections surged and provided a reminder of how pivotal a long-awaited Supreme Court decision could be to federal fiscal health. Customs duties collected through tariffs totaled $30 billion for the month, putting the fiscal year-to-date tally at $124 billion, or 304% more than the same period in 2025.
• President Donald Trump first levied the duties in April 2025 with an across-the-board rate on all goods and services entering the U.S. along with a menu of so-called reciprocal tariffs on individual countries. Since then, the White House has been negotiating with its trading partners, backing off on some of the more aggressive charges while maintaining tough talk on issues.
• Last November, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments challenging the auspices under which Trump justified the tariffs. The decision was expected in January 2026. However, the high court hasn’t ruled yet, and there’s concern in the White House that a negative ruling could force the U.S. into reimbursing the duties collected so far.
• The tariffs helped put a dent in the pace of the budget deficit. In the fourth month of the fiscal year, the shortfall totaled roughly $95 billion, down about 26% from the same period a year ago, the Treasury Department reported. Year to date, that put federal red ink at $697 billion, or down 17% from the same period of fiscal 2025, according to numbers not adjusted for calendar. Calendar adjustments put the deficit reduction at 21%.
• Interest on the $38.6 trillion U.S. debt continues to be a burden on the national finances. Net interest paid totaled $76 billion for the month, more than all other expenditures except Medicare, Social Security and health care. Year to date, gross interest has totaled $426.5 billion, up from $392.2 billion the year before.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica's Net International Reserves (NIR) rose to US$6.73Bn at the end of January 2026, reflecting a 22.4% increase compared to January 2025.
• A 21.5% rise (US$1.19Bn) in total foreign assets, coupled with a 73.5% reduction (US$36.19 Mn) in foreign liabilities, were the primary drivers of the improvements. The increase in foreign assets was largely driven by a 46.5% growth in Securities (US$927.28Mn), a 9.4% rise in Currency & Deposits, totalling US$307.09Mn, and an increase in IMF Reserve Position of US$2.13Mn.
• Jamaica’s NIR is at an all-time high, equating to 36.1 weeks of goods & services imports (28.9 weeks at the end of January 2025). At this level, the NIR is about 3 times the international benchmark of 12 weeks of imports and provides a solid buffer in the case of a major shock.
• Following the severe impact of Hurricane Melissa in late 2025, the reserves have grown, providing the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) with sufficient leverage to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market. The increase in reserves is largely supported by pay-outs from Catastrophe Bonds totaling USS$150Mn, and Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) totaling US$91.90Mn. Further, the IMF approved an additional US$415Mn disbursement in January 2026 under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI)
• While the current account is projected to move into a temporary deficit due to reconstruction costs, reserves are expected to remain steady, given strong external debt inflows, insurance payments and increased remittance inflows.
• The country’s NIR is a key component of Jamaica’s "BB" credit rating. By maintaining strong reserves, Jamaica signals to international lenders that it is a safe bet.

(Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Caribbean Cement Co Ltd (CCC) delivered its strongest financial performance on record in 2025, supported by higher cement volumes following the completion of a major capacity expansion, according to its ultimate parent Cemex.
• Cemex noted Jamaica posted record operating earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) during the year, with cement volumes rising by seven per cent, driven mainly by tourism-related construction and residential self-build activity. The performance reflects the benefits of CCC’s US$42Mn kiln debottlenecking project, completed in Q3 2025, which has enabled the substitution of lower-margin cement imports with higher-value local production.
• CCC’s results stood out within Cemex’s South, Central America and Caribbean segment, where the Caribbean sub-region accounted for 39 per cent of segment EBITDA in 2025. CCC reached peak production levels in July and resumed cement exports later in the year, including shipments to Curaçao.
• Cemex reported that while hurricane damage and maintenance costs dragged down some areas, overall regional cement volumes grew by 2% in 2025.
• Despite a projected short-term recession following Hurricane Melissa (US$8.80Bn in damage), Jamaica’s transition to large-scale reconstruction is expected to drive sustained cement demand.
• The scale of destruction is likely to influence both households and the government to prioritise more resilient, weather-resistant construction methods, many of which require greater use of concrete. This structural shift in rebuilding preferences should underpin sustained cement demand, even amid competition from lower-cost alternatives such as lumber and zinc. CCC is strategically positioned to capitalise on this demand dynamic. Its recent Kiln expansion has enhanced production capacity and improved operational efficiency, enabling the company to adequately supply elevated domestic requirements while maintaining flexibility to pursue additional growth opportunities.
• Beyond the local market, CARICOM exports remain significantly underpenetrated, contributing less than 1% of total revenue in 2024. Management’s stated intention to expand into select regional markets presents a medium-term growth lever, particularly once domestic rebuilding demand begins to normalise.
• Key downside risks to the growth outlook include substitution toward lower-cost building materials, the potential issuance of additional cement import licences to competitors, and exposure to foreign exchange volatility. CCC’s audited standalone results are due for release on March 1.
• CCC's stock price has increased by 11.1% since the start of the year to close at $113.00 on Tuesday, February 10, 2026. At this price, its trade at a P/E16.4x, which is above the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector

(Sources: Cemnet & NCBCM Research)

• Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T’s) economy is beginning to recover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said, citing stability, low inflation and renewed investor interest at the close of its 2026 Article IV review. The assessment followed a two-week official visit by an IMF staff team led by Ana Guscina, which concluded with a meeting on February 9, 2026, with Minister of Finance Davendranath Tancoo.
• According to the IMF, T&T’s economy is gradually recovering to pre-pandemic levels amid persistent headwinds. The non-energy sector, particularly manufacturing and services, has underpinned recent growth, but stagnant production in the mature energy sector has weighed on activity. Economic growth is therefore expected to remain subdued in the near term before gradually recovering over the medium term.
• The economy is estimated to have grown by 0.8% in 2025, driven by non-energy sectors. Furthermore, real GDP growth is projected to moderate to 0.7% in 2026, as stronger growth in the non-energy sector partly offsets an anticipated decline in energy production. That said, medium-term growth prospects are expected to improve as several new energy projects, most notably Manatee, come onstream, lifting growth to around 2.9% in 2027 and 3.5% in 2028. Inflation is also projected to remain low and hover around 2% in the near to medium term, broadly in line with international trends.
• The current account (CA) balance remains in surplus, though the external position has weakened, and foreign exchange (FX) shortages persist. Foreign reserves remain adequate, with coverage at 6.4 months of prospective imports. Furthermore, the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) assets continue to provide an additional sizeable buffer (US$6.38Bn as of February 2026). Looking ahead, the CA surplus is expected to improve to 3.0% of GDP in 2025, reflecting a modest increase in energy exports and a decline in goods imports. Over the medium term, the CA surplus is projected to average about 4% of GDP. However, the CA is assessed as moderately weaker than fundamentals.
• In terms of fiscal performance, the FY2026 (fiscal year ending September 30, 2026) budget introduces important measures to strengthen fiscal revenues, fiscal management, social protection, and economic diversification. However, the IMF noted that stronger fiscal consolidation is needed to place public debt on a firmly declining trajectory, rebuild policy buffers, and safeguard market access. The agency projects an overall deficit of 5.0% of GDP for FY2026, a slight improvement compared to FY2025 (5.5%). Achieving the authorities’ 2.2% of GDP fiscal balance target will require additional fiscal measures amounting to 2.8% of GDP. 
• Assuming an unchanged exchange rate regime, the IMF suggests targeting a 3.5% of GDP fiscal deficit in FY2026, by implementing 1.5% of GDP in additional high-quality measures. Some of the suggested measures include broadening the tax base by phasing out extensive zero ratings and exemptions in the value-added tax (VAT), accelerating the removal of untargeted utility subsidies while protecting the vulnerable households, streamlining transfers to state owned enterprises (SOEs), and improving the efficiency and quality of public expenditure. Such still sizeable and frontloaded adjustment will put debt on a firmly downward path and reduce vulnerabilities, while the emphasis on base broadening, efficiency, and targeting would help mitigate the impact on near-term growth.

(Source: IMF)

• Brazil is scrutinising a trade agreement announced by Washington on Friday, February 6, 2026, between the United States and Argentina due to concerns that it violates the rules of the South American trade bloc Mercosur^[1]. At first reading of the document released by Washington, it appears to go beyond the limits set for bilateral deals by Mercosur members, according to sources.
• To strengthen the negotiating power of the bloc, Mercosur restricts how far members can go in signing their own trade pacts with third countries. Last year, amid global trade tensions sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump, Argentina sought and obtained a temporary expansion of exemptions to the bloc's common external tariff. Brazil and Argentina were granted 150 exceptions each, while Uruguay and Paraguay received larger quotas.
• Asked about Brazilian scrutiny of the deal, an Argentine official said, "The tariff reductions announced for U.S. products fall within the list of 150 exceptions that Argentina is entitled to." But Brazilian officials told Reuters the new U.S.-Argentine agreement appears to cover closer to 200 items.
• The bilateral trade pact may also run into other non-tariff issues, such as Mercosur's rules of origin for goods, services and technical barriers. The move by Argentine President Javier Milei, one of Trump's closest allies in the region, to initiate unilateral talks with Washington would make it difficult to accommodate the deal within last year's exceptions.
• At a Friday press conference, when asked if Mercosur could obstruct the deal, Argentine Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno said the trade bloc does not stop members from such agreements. He noted that Milei could implement parts of the deal by decree, although the overall trade and investment pact would require congressional approval.
• Mercosur, founded 35 years ago, has faced repeated strains as members have sought to expand trade ties independently, though none has previously gone ahead with a side deal.
• Uruguay nearly signed a free trade agreement with the United States in 2006 before backing off over fears it could face expulsion from the bloc. The country has also pursued an FTA with China, generating friction with Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. In 2019, under former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, then Finance Minister Paulo Guedes threatened to leave the bloc, accusing it of holding back Brazil's trade ambitions. Neither Bolsonaro nor his leftist successor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has taken any formal steps to break with Mercosur.

(Source: Reuters)

^[1] Mercosur (Southern Common Market) is a South American economic and political bloc, established in 1991 to promote free trade and regional integration. The full member countries are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Bolivia. Venezuela is a member but has been suspended since 2016, while several other South American nations are associated members.

• The recent depreciation of the US dollar has coincided with a marked and widening divergence in consumer confidence dynamics across major developed market (DM) economies. Over 2025-26, US consumer confidence weakened sharply, falling well below its long-run average and deteriorating more severely than in both the Eurozone and the UK.
• US consumer sentiment, as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (z-score), declined steadily from -0.42 in January 2025 to -1.91 by January 2026, interrupted only by brief and shallow mid-year improvements, the normalised readings show. The decline reflects rising household pessimism about business conditions, inflation pressures, and labour-market conditions, as the share of respondents reporting jobs as “plentiful” has continued to fall.
• What distinguishes the US from its peers is that the deterioration appears less attributable to conventional financial-conditions channels, and more to a combination of elevated political uncertainty, tariff-related concerns, and a clear softening in hiring momentum. Consistent with this interpretation, US job gains in 2025 were the weakest outside a recession since 2003.
• By contrast, Eurozone confidence has shown tentative but increasingly broad-based stabilisation. Although still negative, sentiment improved through late 2025 and into early 2026, reaching -12.4 in January 2026, the highest level in nearly a year and well above mid-2025 lows.
• The European Commission reports that confidence rose by 0.8 points in January 2026, supported by better household assessments of their financial situation and the outlook for major purchases, even as overall sentiment remains below long-run norms. Meanwhile, the UK follows a different trajectory. Data show sentiment gradually improving from -0.24 in January 2025 to +0.32 in January 2026, placing the UK clearly above both the US and the euro area in normalised terms. This suggests modest stabilisation in personal-finance expectations, even as views on the broader economic outlook remain cautious.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• U.S. tariffs are weighing on eurozone growth and inflation, but the most affected sectors are also sensitive to interest rates, so cutting borrowing costs could offset the downward price pressures.
• The U.S. imposed tariffs on most trading partners last year, and European Central Bank (ECB) officials have been studying their likely impact, often coming to opposing conclusions as trade barriers affect the economy on multiple levels. However, a study done by ECB economists concluded that the drop in demand due to tariffs outweighs any inflation-boosting supply effects, creating a drag on prices.
• Notably, trade data has been volatile over the past year as firms frontloaded purchases to avoid tariffs, which stand at 15% as a baseline for EU goods entering the U.S., then ran down stocks. However, in the latest three months for which data is available, eurozone exports to the U.S. are down about 6.5% from the same period a year earlier.
• These findings are significant since eurozone inflation fell to 1.7% in January 2026, below the ECB's 2% target, and some policymakers fear that inflation could fall further. The good news for the ECB is that sectors hit hardest by the tariff shock also respond most strongly to interest rate changes. These sectors include machinery, autos, and chemicals.
• Output may drop sharply due to tariffs but expands strongly in response to lower borrowing costs. "We find that this pattern holds for about 60% of the sectors we study – representing roughly 50% of total average euro zone industrial output and of total goods exports to the United States," the economists said.

 (Source: Reuters)

• Despite the effects of Hurricane Melissa on the broader economy, local manufacturers Wisynco Group Ltd. (WISYNCO) and LASCO Manufacturing Ltd. (LASM) both reported year-on-year earnings growth in earnings for the quarter ended December 31, 2025. Buoyed by robust revenue growth that outpaced its direct costs, Wysinco’s earnings jumped 49.1% to $1.48Bn, while LASM profits grew by a more modest and 5.4% to $698.19Mn.
• Wisynco generated revenues of $16.19Bn, reflecting the benefits of capacity expansion, the rollout of new product lines, including its brewed products at the start of the quarter, and a 14.0% growth in exports. In contrast, LASM experienced a 3.6% decline in revenues, primarily due to a one-week suspension of manufacturing operations following the passage of Hurricane Melissa.
• Notwithstanding the divergence in revenue trends, both companies recorded an expansion in gross margins, with Wisynco’s margin improving by 368 basis points (bps) and LASM’s by 68 bps. The introduction of higher-margin products, which enabled more effective absorption of overhead costs, drove wider margins at Wisynco. Meanwhile, LASM’s margin expansion was mainly driven by reductions in the cost of sales, which offset weaker topline performance.
• Operating expenses for Wisynco increased 16.3% to $4.09Bn, broadly consistent with its scale-up in activity. In contrast, LASM recorded lower operating expenses over the period, reinforcing the cost discipline that supported its earnings growth.
• Looking ahead, both companies remain well-established players locally and regionally and have contributed meaningfully to post-hurricane normalisation in supply chains. That said, Wisynco’s recent commissioning of its brewery is expected to be a key growth driver, complemented by sustained demand across its other product lines as the country rebounds. For its part, LASM is expected to continue to pursue efficiency initiatives aimed at strengthening margins and see modest growth in revenues, given that most of its products are consumer staples. As a result, both companies are likely to continue experiencing earnings growth in the near term.
• Wisynco’s stock has advanced 25.7% year-to-date, while LASM has edged down 1.2%, closing at J$23.42 and J$6.46, respectively on Monday. At its current price, Wisynco trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.0x, slightly above the Main Market Manufacturing & Distribution sector average of 17.6x, whereas LASM trades below the sector average at 10.0x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• On February 5, 2026, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Outlook.
• The rating affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect expectation that although the economic damages and recovery costs from Hurricane Melissa will be large, leading to an economic contraction in 2025-2026 and a deterioration in fiscal metrics, the government will return to its fiscal consolidation efforts beginning in 2027.
• Despite considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of Hurricane Melissa, Fitch sees headroom at the current rating to accommodate the hurricane's expected short-term negative economic growth and fiscal metric implications.
• As a result of the economic damages, Fitch estimates an economic contraction of 1.5% in 2025, followed by a further 2.6% in 2026. Large hotels were largely insured and have been able to rebuild relatively rapidly, although much of the 2025-26 tourism season has been lost. The industry is expected to recover 85% of its capacity by May 2026 and 95% by year-end 2026, according to the Tourism Ministry.
• Tourism receipts, representing roughly 20% of GDP in 2024, are estimated to have declined by nearly 15% yoy in 2025, and are projected to fall by a similar level in 2026. However, Fitch expects remittances, which represented 16% of GDP in 2024, to rise substantially, partially offsetting tourism losses.
• Despite a projected $8.8 billion economic hit and a temporary rise in debt-to-GDP toward 70% by end 2026, Jamaica’s "BB-" rating is anchored by strong governance indicators, and a proven bipartisan commitment to returning to fiscal surpluses. Of note, Fitch projects that the government will run primary surpluses again in FY2027 to bring debt/ GDP back toward the target of 60%.
• Negative Rating Triggers include external shocks (e.g., natural disasters or a sharp fall in tourism) or medium-term fiscal loosening, such as spending pressures or revenue shortfalls, leading to a sustained rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio. While a positive rating action would necessitate improved public finances, including a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio and interest burden, or a faster-than-expected economic recovery that accelerates debt reduction.

(Source: Fitch Ratings)