• The Supreme Court hears arguments Wednesday over the legality of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs program in a blockbuster case with extraordinary significance for American consumers and businesses, the nation’s financial health, global diplomacy, and future presidential power.
• If the tariffs are invalidated, the U.S. government could owe tens of billions of dollars of refunds to businesses that have paid them. Such an outcome could also eliminate a primary bargaining chip that Trump has used in negotiations with other countries.
• On the other hand, a decision upholding the tariffs would cement an expansive new exercise of presidential power and preserve a cornerstone of Trump’s agenda. With that being said, economists estimate that this could boost some U.S. manufacturing in the long run but cost American families an average of more than $1700 this year alone in higher prices.
• The Constitution gives Congress the exclusive authority to levy taxes on citizens and duties on imports, with a few limited exceptions adopted over the years to give the president some discretion during times of national crisis. With that being said, the key question in the Trump case is whether the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives a president unfettered ability to set tariffs for any country, at any level, for as long as needed, whenever an emergency is declared at the president’s sole discretion.
• Trump, the first president to invoke the law to impose tariffs, argues its broad text gives him sweeping power as an extension of his responsibility for foreign affairs and national security. The law, known as IEEPA, specifies that the president can "regulate importation or exportation" of goods in response to an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to the nation’s security "if the president declares a national emergency."
• A coalition of small business owners and Democrat-led states sued Trump over the tariffs arguing both that the word "regulate" in the law does not cover tariffs or taxes, which are not explicitly mentioned, and that the "emergencies" Trump declared are neither unusual nor extraordinary as required by the law.

(Source: ABC News)

• Employment opportunities hit their lowest level in more than 4½ years as October ended and the government shutdown dragged on, according to data from jobs site Indeed. The firm’s Job Postings Index¹fell to 101.9 as of Oct. 24, the most recent point for which data is available. That’s the lowest since early February 2021 for a measure that uses February 2020 as a baseline value of 100.
• The level represents a 0.5% decline from the beginning of the month and a roughly 3.5% tumble from mid-August, the latest point from which Bureau of Labour Statistics data is available.
• Under normal conditions, the BLS on Tuesday would have reported its monthly Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, a measure that Federal Reserve officials watch closely for indications of slack in the jobs market. With the shutdown on the precipice of being the longest in history, economists and policymakers are left to look at alternative data for big-picture indicators.
• The most recent JOLTS report, for August, also indicated an ongoing decline in openings. The BLS reported that job openings totalled 7.23 million, about the level of July but down 7.0% from January.
• A softening labour market has generated concern from Fed officials. Last week, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to lower its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%. Officials have cited rising risks to the labour market taking precedence over ongoing concerns about inflation holding nearly a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.

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¹A job postings index is a metric that measures the number of new job advertisements posted online over a specific period, like a day or a month.

(Source: CNBC)

• On October 28, 2025, Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica as a Category 5 hurricane – the strongest recorded storm in the island’s history – just over a year after Hurricane Beryl. Jamaica’s storm history provides guideposts for the extent of the potential negative economic impact stemming from Hurricane Melissa. Data from Jamaica show the severe impact of storms, even when they do not make landfall.
• For example, Hurricane Beryl, which narrowly avoided landfall in July 2024, resulted in a significant GDP contraction in both Q2 and Q3 2024, with GDP falling 2.7% peak to trough. This contraction was driven by declines in agriculture (-9.1% q-o-q), mining (-10.7%), and utilities (-5.2%), and all but two sectors contracted in Q3 2024. Despite strong growth to start the year, the economy contracted by 0.7% in 2024, largely due to Beryl’s damage. Furthermore, other storms since 2000 that caused at least US$100Mn in direct damages saw, on average, a peak-to-trough contraction of 2.3%.
• Given its unprecedented strength, the impact from Hurricane Melissa is likely to be even more severe. BMI research expects the storm to contract overall domestic output by 3.0%–6.0% peak to trough. This contraction follows a spirited economic recovery after 2024’s devastating storm season.
• Considering the path of the storm through the western portion of the island – including the parish of St. Elizabeth, Jamaica’s agricultural heartland – BMI sees scope for sizable contractions in agricultural output, as seen following previous storms. Additionally, given the noticeable contraction in Jamaica’s tourism industry following Hurricane Beryl, with stopover arrivals falling 6.8% y-o-y in Q3 2024, expectations are for a more severe impact following Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall and passed close to Montego Bay, a key resort area home to a large cruise terminal and international airport that accounted for 80.9% of stopover arrivals in 2024.
• This impact will be compounded by higher inflation and increased imports. Indeed, headline inflation rose 1.4pp in August 2024 following Hurricane Beryl – driven by food price increases – and BMI expects a similar, temporary jump in domestic prices following Hurricane Melissa. Additionally, falling inbound tourism will reduce services exports and narrow the country’s trade and current account balances. Furthermore, expectations are for Jamaica’s goods trade deficit to widen due to a temporary increase in food imports amid widespread crop destruction, further weighing on growth. That said, Jamaica’s external position will be buttressed by increased remittance inflows, potentially offsetting some lost inflows from declining services exports.
• Nonetheless, overall threats to macro stability are lessened by Jamaica’s successful pro-growth reforms. Jamaica’s monetary authorities have successfully stabilised domestic inflation expectations by implementing a credible inflation-targeting monetary policy regime, a tailwind for price stability. Additionally, the government has made significant progress to stabilise its finances in the past decade, substantially reducing the size of its fiscal deficit. This has helped to limit its reliance on external financing, while increasing its reserves, supporting Jamaica’s macro stability in the face of severe external shocks, and ensuring it can pay for necessary imports.
• Moreover, while Jamaica’s recovery will likely be prolonged, the country has developed fiscal buffers to defend against natural disasters and support rebuilding. This includes Jamaica’s US$150Mn catastrophe bond and the island’s disaster funding coverage at over US$800Mn as of June 2025, as assessed by the Minister of Finance. Crucially, these resources have already been budgeted and funded – a tailwind for continued fiscal stability. However, should recovery require substantially more funds than currently allocated, Jamaica’s sustainable fiscal position gives it scope to increase relief spending without risk of destabilising the country’s finances.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• In a release on November 3, 2025, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) noted that it, alongside the Jamaica Bankers Association (JBA), is actively exploring initiatives to make banking services, including access to cash, available in the shortest possible time, particularly to the parishes that have been heavily impacted by Hurricane Melissa. 
• While banks have been able to resume operations in many areas, they are experiencing significant challenges reactivating their branch and automated teller machine (ATM) networks across the country. The challenges result from physical damage, the dislocation suffered by staff of the financial institutions, difficulty accessing roadways to towns where the branches and ATMs are located and the absence of electricity and telecommunication services in many communities. In addition, financial institutions face enormous challenges with security in the prevailing conditions.
• Critical payment and settlement systems, such as the BOJ-operated Real Time Gross Settlement System (RTGS), are operational. Furthermore, the central bank has suspended its fees charged to banks for the transfer and settlement of funds via the RTGS until further notice and expects that the banks will pass on the fee waiver benefit to their customers.
• The BOJ is also exploring with deposit-taking institutions (DTIs) what other temporary relief initiatives for bank customers are possible, particularly for those residing or operating businesses in areas that have been ravaged by the hurricane.

(Source: BOJ)

• Guyana entered the oil era in 2019 with US$1.8Bn in debt. Six years later, that figure skyrocketed to over US$7.7Bn, a fourfold explosion in borrowing under the current administration. At the end of 2024, Guyana’s debt stood at US$6Bn, but another US$1.7Bn was added to finance the 2025 Budget, as revealed by Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo.
• Since commencing oil production in December 2019, the country has earned just over US$7.8Bn in oil revenue, according to the latest Bank of Guyana (BoG) report on the Natural Resource Fund (NRF). Notably, almost US$4.6Bn has already been withdrawn by the government since the inception of the Fund.
• The country now finds itself paying high interest on the money it borrowed to finance its development agenda. However, the government believes in its ability to repay the debt in light of earnings from the oil sector. The Irfaan Ali-led administration has often touted the low GDP-to-debt service ratio, meaning that the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) far outweighs the country’s annual repayment on loans.
• However, it should be noted that the country’s growth in GDP, while largely reflective of exports from the petroleum sector, is not the real value that the country receives from the sector. For instance, Guyana’s total crude oil exports amounted to US$17.9Bn in 2024, but Guyana only received US$2.6Bn in revenue from the sector during the same period.
• Stakeholders have frequently warned that while the country is “rich on paper”, it risks slipping into a dangerous debt crisis that many oil-producing states previously fell prey to. In 2019, the country’s debt was US$1.8Bn; according to Annual Reports from the Bank of Guyana (BoG), the nation’s debt grew by 46.7% in 2020 to US$2.6Bn. In 2021, the debt surged to US$3.1Bn, and in 2022, this trend continued with the total stock of debt climbing to US$3.7Bn.
• Experts and politicians have also warned the Guyana Government about excessive borrowing on the back of its oil revenues. Only recently, the United Kingdom increased its export credit financing limit for Guyana from £2.1Bn to £3.0Bn, a move billed by both London and Georgetown as a vote of confidence in Guyana’s accelerating economic progress. But amid the applause, commentators have sharply warned that Guyana must tread carefully. Failure to do so, they say, risks plunging the country into a debt trap, especially given the volatility of oil prices and the nation’s already heavy external and domestic obligations.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The Dominican Republic’s economy expanded by 2.2% between January and September 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, according to the Central Bank (BCRD). Governor Héctor Valdez Albizu attributed the growth to key sectors such as agriculture (3.9%), mining (3.7%), financial services (7.4%), and tourism (3.3%), which benefited from the arrival of 8.6 million visitors, a 2.7% increase year-over-year.
• Valdez Albizu highlighted that exports reached US$11.6Bn, up 11.7%, while tourism revenues totalled US$8.5Bn and remittances US$8.9Bn. Foreign direct investment stood at US$4 billion, led by projects in mining, energy, and communications.
• The Central Bank projects that the economy will gradually return to its potential growth in the coming quarters as global conditions stabilise and investment increases. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimate overall growth of 3.4% for the Dominican Republic by the end of 2025.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods.
• Accounts from manufacturers in the Institute for Supply Management survey on Monday painted a dire picture of the factory sector, which ironically President Donald Trump's sweeping duties are intended to stimulate. Economists have long argued it was impossible to restore manufacturing to its former glory because of structural issues, including worker shortages.
• Some makers of computer and electronic products agreed, and noted last month that "the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the U.S." The ISM added to the gloom from other advanced nations' factory surveys.
• "Tariffs have been roiling the sector for much of this year," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. "The comments from individual respondents suggest that firms are exhausted by all of the back and forth on tariffs since the beginning of April and are suffering mightily as their customers have pulled back significantly."
• The ISM said its manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 last month from 49.1 in September. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy. The PMI remained above 42.3, a level that the ISM said over time was consistent with an expansion of the overall economy.
• Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI rising to 49.5. Six industries, including primary metals, transportation equipment and fabricated metal products, reported growth. Among the 12 industries that contracted were textile mills, wood and chemical products, as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components, machinery, and computer and electronic products.
• Others said the Trump administration's trade war had hurt agricultural exports and impacted farmers' finances and their ability to buy new equipment.

(Source: Reuters)

• A rare 10-2 policy vote at the October 28–29 meeting to cut rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%–4.00% range revealed a deep split among U.S. Fed officials, with some pushing for tighter policy and others for looser conditions.
• Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged “strongly differing views” ahead of the December 9–10 meeting.
• Lisa Cook¹, a member of the Board of the Federal Reserve, warned that keeping rates too high could sharply weaken the labour market while lowering them too much could risk unanchoring inflation expectations. This pointed to the difficulty of achieving the Fed’s dual mandate of striking a balance between inflation and employment levels and emphasised the need for close monitoring of both inflation and employment data.
• Fed Governor Stephen Miran restated his case for deeper half-point rate cuts, arguing that strong stock and credit markets don’t necessarily signal loose policy and that maintaining high rates risks a downturn. He views inflation as less threatening than his peers.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, while supporting the last rate cut, said he remains undecided for December and is concerned about inflation remaining above target; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly described the October cut as “insurance”, but said further action will depend on signs of labour market deterioration.
• Both Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack opposed the October cut. Shmid argued that inflation should remain the priority and that high equity prices suggest policy is not restrictive. Similarly, Hammack echoed that sentiment, saying monetary policy is “barely restrictive, if at all,” underscoring the sharp internal divide within the Fed.

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¹ Cook is locked in a legal battle with President Trump on mortgage fraud allegations.

(Source: Reuters)

• Hurricane Melissa, the most powerful Atlantic hurricane of the year, made landfall this week as a Category 5 storm in Jamaica. The strength of the storm means it will likely trigger a full payout from a catastrophe bond designed to provide funds to the island in the event of catastrophic weather events.
• The US$150.0Mn catastrophe bond, structured by Aon and the first of its kind in the Caribbean region, is intended to help rebuild after natural disasters by providing parametric coverage against losses from named storms. The policy took effect this year and lasts through 2027.
• To trigger the full payment, the storm has to meet a particular strength criteria. The central pressure of the storm must be at or below 900 millibars as its makes landfall and crosses the island nation. Early data from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Melissa’s pressure stayed below 900 millibars in several areas. Those readings are in the process of being verified by an independent calculation agent.
• “While the final numbers are still being verified, the early signs suggest the transaction is doing what it was designed to do: get critical funds to the country quickly after a major disaster,” Chris Lefferdink, Aon’s head of insurance-linked securities for North America, said in a statement.
• The review process typically takes 2 to 3 weeks, and the earliest possible payout to Jamaica could come in approximately 1 month, according to a spokesperson from Aon. Previous parametric transactions payouts have taken 3 months or more, but for this event Aon used an innovative data source to enable faster payments.
• The catastrophe bond was placed using the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (World Bank) “capital at risk” program, which is used to transfer the risks associated with natural catastrophes to the capital markets, allowing the country to access funds quickly after a major event.

(Source: CNBC)

• In the wake of Hurricane Melissa, Minister of Tourism Hon. Edmund Bartlett set a firm target for Jamaica’s tourism industry to be fully back in operation by December 15, 2025. To achieve this, the Ministry has activated a Hurricane Melissa Recovery Task Force and a companion Tourism Resilience Coordination Committee (“Tourism Cares”) to synchronise public and private sector action.
• Minister Bartlett stated that recovery cannot be left to chance, emphasising that marketing, communications, infrastructure repairs, aid, logistics and all enabling support will be aligned behind one objective, full industry operation by December 15. Progress will be tracked through the Ministry of Tourism with regular public updates for transparency and planning confidence.
• The Recovery Task Force is chaired by John Byles, Executive Deputy Chairman of Chukka Caribbean Adventures, with Minister Bartlett serving as Chairman Emeritus. Members include Hon. Tova Hamilton, Professor Lloyd Waller, Jennifer Griffith, Adam Stewart, Ian Dear, Donovan White, Jessica Shannon, Christopher Jarrett, Wayne Cummings, Wade Mars, Dr. Carey Wallace, Tanikie McClarthy Allen and Fiona Fennell.
• The Task Force will lead the sector’s operational restart, focusing on rapid assessments, product rehabilitation, and service readiness across resorts, attractions, airports, and ports, while “Tourism Cares” will organize and route financial and in-kind assistance through supportjamaica.gov.jm to workers, MSMEs, and communities. Both committees will coordinate with the Global Tourism Resilience and Crisis Management Centre (GTRCMC) to integrate lessons from Jamaica’s post-COVID-19 recovery, reinforcing the industry’s resilience and commitment to recovery through empathy, compassion, and innovation.

(Source: JIS)