• Brazil's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday amid firmer signs of an economic slowdown, while keeping its options open ahead of next month's presidential election. The central bank's rate-setting committee, known as Copom (Comitê de Política Monetária), unanimously lowered the Selic rate to 13.75%, in line with the expectations of 48 of 51 economists polled by Reuters. The remaining three had forecast no change.
• "The total magnitude of the calibration cycle will be established in light of new information aiming to ensure inflation convergence to the target," the central bank reaffirmed in a policy statement that showed only minor changes from the previous meeting. The decision came on the same day that the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range and flagged further increases in coming months.
• The cut extends a cautious easing cycle launched in March that has delivered just 125 basis points of reductions so far, still leaving Brazil with one of the highest real interest rates among major economies. Investors are now looking to Copom's next meeting in early November, just days after what is expected to be a closely contested election runoff between leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking re-election, and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
• Policymakers said fresh indicators suggest a gradual moderation of economic activity, particularly in more cyclical sectors, albeit at a resilient level. Second-quarter gross domestic product data showed a slowdown, while household consumption contracted. Inflation has also eased, although the labor market remains tight.
• At the same time, rising oil prices have re-emerged as a concern amid renewed conflict in the Middle East, and market inflation expectations for next year have edged higher, moving further away from the official 3% target. Additionally, the central bank nudged up its inflation forecasts to 5.2% for 2026 and 3.9% for 2027, from 5.1% and 3.8%, respectively, while its projection for the relevant 18-month policy horizon through the first quarter of 2028 remained unchanged at 3.2%.
• With activity cooling and the statement essentially unchanged, the easing cycle looks set to continue at a 25 basis point pace, though the bank has left itself room to pause if election-related uncertainty lifts inflation expectations.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of England (BoE) held its policy rate at 3.75% on September 17, 2026, but warned that borrowing costs may need to rise if the conflict in the Middle East persists. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to maintain rates, with three members supporting a 25 basis-point increase to 4.0%.
• Although the decision to hold was widely expected, the meeting marked a clear shift in tone towards tighter policy, positioning the BoE to potentially follow the European Central Bank (ECB) and US Federal Reserve (Fed) in raising borrowing costs.
• According to the BoE, inflation risks have shifted further to the upside as higher global energy prices continue to feed through the economy. Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the longer energy-price volatility persists, the greater its impact on inflation and the likelihood that the bank may need to raise rates to return inflation to its 2% target.
• The central bank now expects inflation to rise to slightly above 4% in early 2027, compared with its previous forecast for a peak of 3.2% in late 2026. UK inflation stood at 3.1% in August, with the higher outlook largely reflecting increased energy costs associated with the prolonged Middle East conflict.
• So far, higher global energy costs have had a limited effect on UK price and wage setting. However, the BoE warned that the longer the volatility persists, the greater the risk that inflation becomes more entrenched, even as underlying wage and business-pricing pressures remain relatively contained.
• The BoE also raised its estimate for Q3 2026 economic growth to 0.4%, from 0.1% previously. Separately, the bank announced changes to its gilt-unwinding programme, including a pause in active bond sales as it seeks to reduce pressure on the UK government bond market.
• The decision represents a hawkish hold, with the BoE leaving rates unchanged while signalling greater concern about persistent energy-driven inflation. Although second-round effects on wages and business pricing remain limited, a prolonged Middle East conflict could increase the risk of inflation becoming more entrenched and strengthen the case for a future rate hike.

(Source: Reuters)

• China has privately asked Iran to help rein in Yemen’s Houthis, according to three Iranian sources familiar with the matter. The request followed an appeal from Saudi Arabia to Beijing as recent Houthi advances and attacks increased risks to the Kingdom and regional energy infrastructure.
• China has significant economic ties with Iran and the wider region. It accounted for more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports in 2025, averaging around 1.4Mn barrels per day, while roughly half of China’s oil imports come from the Middle East.
• Saudi Arabia turned to China after the Houthis advanced along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, leaving oil exports and shipping more exposed. Beijing wants Iran to use its influence with the Houthis to help prevent the conflict from spreading further across key regional energy routes.
• The escalation is putting pressure on two of the Middle East’s most important energy routes. Only three commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on September 16, down from 12 a day earlier and well below the recent 10-day average of 17. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also eased to 21 vessels from 24.
• Energy markets remain vulnerable despite some easing in oil prices. Brent settled at US$104.82 per barrel and WTI at US$101.91 on September 17, 2026, as markets weighed continued Saudi-Houthi attacks against efforts to restore regional crude flows.
• China’s intervention highlights the growing economic stakes of the conflict for Beijing, given its dependence on Middle Eastern energy supplies. With Hormuz traffic sharply constrained and risks also rising around the Red Sea, China has a clear incentive to encourage de-escalation.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite returning to topline growth, The Limners and Bards Limited (LAB) recorded a net loss for the third quarter ended July 31, 2026. The result extended the volatility in LAB’s earnings performance, with the company moving from a loss in Q1 to a profit in Q2 before slipping back into a loss in Q3. A greater contribution from the lower-margin Media segment, higher production costs and increased film-distribution expenses resulted in the net loss of J$4.68Mn, compared with a net profit of J$21.66Mn in Q3 2025.
• Revenues increased 5.1% year-over-year (YoY) to J$280.71Mn, from J$267.14Mn, supported primarily by the Media segment. However, the cost of generating revenue rose considerably faster, increasing 22.0% to J$201.73Mn. Consequently, gross profit declined 22.4% to J$78.98Mn, while the gross margin contracted by 10.0 percentage points to 28.1%.
• Administrative expenses declined 10.8% YoY to J$69.77Mn, reflecting continued cost-control measures. However, this was more than offset by selling and distribution expenses, which increased to J$15.50Mn from J$1.04Mn, primarily reflecting marketing and distribution expenditure associated with LAB Studios’ first slate of films. As a result, total administrative, selling and distribution expenses increased 7.6% to J$85.27Mn, further pressuring the quarter’s earnings.
• Despite the improvement in third quarter revenue, LAB’s nine-month performance remained considerably weaker. Revenue declined 15.0% YoY to J$618.49Mn, while gross profit fell 25.9% to J$205.40Mn. This contributed to a nine-month net loss of J$18.17Mn, reversing the net profit of J$42.26Mn recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
• Media remained LAB’s largest business line, contributing J$322.14Mn, or 52.1%, of nine-month revenue. However, the segment generated a gross margin of only 16.6%, compared with 41.8% for Production and 68.8% for Agency. Therefore, a sustained recovery in consolidated earnings will depend not only on revenue growth but also on LAB securing more Production and Agency work or improving the margins earned on its Media contracts.
• Looking ahead, LAB’s near-term priority will be to sustain the recent revenue recovery and shift its sales mix toward higher-margin services. Management expects FY2027 to mark a transition from investing in its film and artificial-intelligence platforms to monetising these initiatives. However, the timing and scale of the resulting earnings remain uncertain, with a return to profitability dependent on successful film distribution, audience uptake, commercial demand for its AI-enabled services and disciplined control of related distribution expenditure. Shareholders will therefore require clearer evidence that these investments in content creation that started around 4 to 5 years ago can generate stronger margins and positive operating cash flow.
• At the close of trading on September 16, 2026, LAB’s share price was J$1.00, representing a 3.8% decline year-to-date. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of approximately 1.5x, slightly below the Junior Market Other Sector average of 1.6x.

(Sources: JSE, NCBCM Research)

• The Panama Canal plans to further reduce maritime traffic as drought caused by the El Niño climate phenomenon worsens, choking one of the world's most important shipping lanes. The canal handles 5% of global maritime trade and about 40% of US container traffic and is favoured by shippers because it usually lowers costs and transit times, especially for companies trading between China, Asia and the US.
• From October, an average of 29.5 vessels will be allowed to transit daily, down 18% from 36 in August, according to a draft plan submitted to Panama's parliament. Officials had already cut daily transits from 36 to 32 in September because of the drought.
• Congestion has pushed the cost of passage sharply higher. In August, with vessels waiting 10 days to enter the canal, the longest wait since May, a container ship reportedly paid about US$4 million to jump the queue. Maritime companies usually pay a flat fee to reserve a transit slot, but a daily auction allows shipowners to bid to skip the queue, and bid prices generally rise during periods of high demand. The US and Israel's war on Iran, and the related disruption to the strait of Hormuz, has complicated logistics and added costs for shipping companies using the canal.
• The 82km canal, connecting the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific Ocean, relies on fresh water from rivers pouring into Lake Gatun to operate its system of locks. The locks act like elevators, each filling with water to lift ships 26 meters (85 feet) from sea level to Lake Gatun and then back down to sea level on the other side. Officials said in September that the watershed had received lower than forecast rainfall, and when lake levels are no longer safe for the largest ships to pass, the Panama Canal Authority imposes restrictions for safety and to preserve water.
• Restrictions could tighten further, with El Niño expected to peak later this year and forecast to be the strongest in four decades. The pattern brings worldwide changes in winds, air pressure and rainfall. There is recent precedent for deeper cuts: in 2023 the water level in the lakes feeding the canal was so low that authorities reduced daily transits from 38 to 22, creating a bottleneck of ships and sending companies scrambling to find alternative routes.
• The wider climate backdrop is severe. Nine countries in Central America and northern South America recorded their hottest June to August period on record this year, and 52 countries across all continents broke their seasonal temperature records for that period, according to an Agence France-Presse analysis of meteorological data from the European Copernicus programme. Eighteen African countries broke seasonal records, from Mauritania and Sierra Leone in the west to Eritrea and Ethiopia in the east, with more than a third of the people experiencing record northern summer heat located in Africa.

(Source: The Guardian)

• Economic activity in Brazil fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in July from the previous month, a central bank index showed on Wednesday, compared with expectations for a 0.1% contraction in a Reuters poll of economists. July marked the second consecutive month of contraction, following a revised 0.9% drop in June.
• Latin America's largest economy has been cooling as elevated borrowing costs weigh on activity. Brazil's central bank has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at each of its last four meetings, bringing it to 14%, but the country's real rates remain among the highest in the world.
• Policymakers will announce their next rate decision later on Wednesday, with economists in a Reuters poll forecasting another 25 bp cut to 13.75%. “The growth data increasingly argue for lower rates; the inflation backdrop argues for getting there gradually,” said Andres Abadia, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
• The central The Banco Central do Brasil Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) is a monthly economic indicator that acts as a proxy for GDP, showed that the agricultural sector was the main drag in July, posting a 1.2% decline. Industry fell 0.4%, while services, the backbone of Brazil's economy, were flat. On a year-on-year basis, the IBC-Br index was up 1.1% in July.
• Back-to-back monthly contractions alongside a still-restrictive policy rate keep the easing cycle intact, with the pace of further cuts likely to be set by inflation rather than growth. For investors, gradually falling real rates remain supportive for Brazilian local fixed income, while the earnings outlook for domestically focused companies stays subdued until lower borrowing costs feed through to demand.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Policymakers also flagged further increases in borrowing costs in the coming months as they seek a timelier return of inflation toward the central bank’s 2% target.
• The unanimous decision reflected continued concern over persistent price pressures from US import tariffs, higher energy costs and strong capital spending linked to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation remains elevated and that the policy action should support a faster return to target.
• Updated projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers expect at least one more 25-basis-point increase before year-end. The policy rate is projected at 4.00%–4.25% at end-2026 and at the same level at end-2027, indicating that officials expect tighter monetary policy to persist.
• The Fed also raised its 2026 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation forecast to 3.7%, from 3.6% in June, and now expects inflation to return to its 2% target in 2029, one year later than previously projected. The 2026 GDP growth forecast was also raised slightly to 2.3% from 2.2%, while the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 4.1% from 4.3%.
• Financial markets had largely anticipated the increase. The US dollar strengthened, while Treasury yields were relatively steady immediately after the announcement. Market bets on a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in late October ticked higher to 56.5% from 54% before the hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch.
• The Fed’s updated projections suggest the September increase is unlikely to be a one-off adjustment, with most policymakers expecting additional tightening and inflation remaining above target for longer than previously anticipated. A higher-for-longer interest-rate environment could keep borrowing costs elevated and maintain pressure on financial conditions.

(Source: Reuters)

• UK annual inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 3.1% in August 2026, in line with economists’ expectations. The increase was driven mainly by higher energy costs following renewed conflict in the Gulf.
• According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), sharp increases in petrol and diesel prices pushed inflation higher, while increased airfares, particularly for long-haul journeys, also contributed. Further increases are expected as higher global energy prices feed through to domestic energy bills with a lag.
• Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food as well as fuel, held at 2.6% for a fourth consecutive month, while services inflation remained unchanged at 3.4%. This provided some reassurance to the Bank of England (BoE) that broader price pressures have not accelerated to the same extent as headline inflation.
• Producer-price inflation was less encouraging. Manufacturers’ output prices increased 3.7% year-over-year in August, while input prices rose 6.1%, suggesting higher energy and raw-material costs are continuing to feed through the production chain.
• Investors were pricing roughly a 20% chance of a 25-basis-point BoE rate hike on September 17, but a 75% chance of two rate increases before year-end. Goldman Sachs expects headline inflation to peak at 3.9% in early 2027.
• The stability in core and services inflation reduces the immediate pressure on the BoE to tighten policy despite the rise in headline inflation. However, stronger producer-price pressures and the expected pass-through from higher energy costs could keep the case for rate increases later in the year alive.

(Source: Reuters)

• Local inflation remained elevated in August, although the pace of monthly price increases moderated. According to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), consumer prices rose 0.6%, compared with 1.2% in July. While point-to-point (P2P) inflation increased for the fourth consecutive month to 7.9%, from 7.5% in July, moving it further above the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ) 4.0%–6.0% target range and extending the breach the central bank had previously characterised as temporary.
• Food prices remained a major source of pressure, with the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division increasing by 1.5% during August. Prices rose across several agricultural items, including Irish potato, sweet potato, cabbage, tomato and pumpkin, driving a 4.7% monthly increase in the Vegetables, Tubers, Plantains, Cooking Bananas and Pulses class. The class was 18.1% higher year-on-year, highlighting the sensitivity of the inflation outlook to domestic agricultural supply conditions.
• Transport costs added further pressure, rising by 0.7% during August amid higher petrol prices and toll rates. Fuels and Lubricants increased by 3.5% during the month and 23.5% P2P, while tolls and related services rose by 2.3%. Consequently, Transport remained the largest contributor to annual inflation, increasing by 14.6% P2P. This reflected both the continued pass-through of the July 2026 route-taxi and hackney-carriage fare adjustment and a 15.4% annual increase in passenger transport by road. Importantly, the combined impact of higher fuel prices, fares and tolls could extend beyond the Transport division by raising distribution and operating costs across the wider economy.
• The increase was partly tempered by a 0.7% decline in the Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels division, the only major division to record a monthly contraction. This largely reflected a 2.6% reduction in Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels following lower electricity rates. However, the division remained 4.8% higher on a P2P basis, owing to higher imputed rentals and household energy costs. The relief from lower electricity rates may prove temporary if elevated global fuel prices persist and subsequently feed through to domestic electricity charges.
• Overall, the latest outturn suggests that inflation remains heavily influenced by food, energy and administered transport costs. These pressures are largely supply-driven and may therefore be less responsive to higher interest rates in the near term. Nevertheless, their persistence could generate second-round effects through higher business costs, wages and inflation expectations, particularly given that core inflation was already above the BOJ’s target range. This reduces the central bank’s scope to ease monetary policy despite Jamaica’s still-fragile economic recovery.
• Food and energy remain the principal upside risk to the inflation outlook. Worsening El Niño-induced drought conditions could constrain domestic agricultural production and sustain elevated food prices, while geopolitical tensions and higher global energy prices could continue to pass through to fuel, electricity, transportation and distribution costs. Conversely, if the droughts abate and global tensions ease, improved agricultural supply and lower electricity charges could contribute to some moderation over the coming months.
• Attention now turns to the BOJ’s September 28 policy decision, the first full quarterly policy cycle under Governor Dr Brian Langrin, who succeeded Richard Byles on August 19. The Monetary Policy Committee held the policy rate at 5.50% in August, noting that headline and core inflation had risen to 7.5% and 5.2%, respectively. Although the BOJ expects inflation to moderate after the September quarter, the continued rise in the annual rate and the risk of second-round effects strengthen the case for maintaining a restrictive policy stance. A further increase in the policy rate may become more likely if price pressures broaden beyond food, fuel and regulated transport costs.

(Sources: STATIN & NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Republic announced on September 15, 2026, the commencement of a cash tender offer to purchase its 5.95% bonds due 2027, of which US$1.7Bn remains outstanding. This tender offer forms part of the government’s debt management strategy and part of a broader programme of the Republic to actively manage and restructure its sovereign debt portfolio, lower near-term refinancing pressures, and retire or exchange legacy obligations ahead of their maturity.
• Holders will receive a fixed price of US$1,006.25 per US$1,000 of principal amount, plus accrued and unpaid interest to but excluding the settlement date, with the buyback capped at a maximum purchase price the Republic will set in its sole discretion.
• The offer carries no minimum participation threshold, but it is conditioned, among other things, on the concurrent or earlier closing of a new issue of U.S. dollar-denominated, New York law-governed notes in an amount and on pricing and terms acceptable to the Republic. The new notes will be offered only by means of a separate offering memorandum.
• If the aggregate purchase price of validly tendered bonds, excluding accrued interest, exceeds the maximum purchase price, the Republic will apply a proration factor to tenders. It also reserves the right to reject valid tenders, modify the fixed purchase price or terminate the offer for any reason, in which case tendered bonds would be returned to holders.
• The offer commenced on Tuesday, September 15, and expires at 5:00 p.m. New York City time on Monday, September 21, 2026, unless extended or earlier terminated. Bonds may be validly withdrawn at any time up to the expiration time, and settlement of accepted bonds is expected on Monday, September 28, 2026. The Republic expects to announce the aggregate principal amount tendered at about 9:00 a.m. New York City time on Tuesday, September 22, then the maximum purchase price, the tendered aggregate purchase price, the amount accepted and any proration at about 5:00 p.m. the same day.

(Sources: PR Newswire & NCBCM Research)