• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• The United Kingdom inflation rose to 3.3% in March 2026 (from 3.0% in February 2026), marking the first clear pass-through of the Iran war into consumer prices, with the Bank of England warning this could reignite the country’s persistently high inflation problem.
• The increase was driven largely by energy, with motor fuel prices jumping 8.7% month-on-month, the largest rise since mid-2022. Factory cost pressures intensified, as producer input price inflation surged 4.4% in March, pointing to further pipeline inflation that could feed into consumer prices in the coming months.
• Underlying price pressures were mixed, with services inflation rising unexpectedly to 4.5%, although partly driven by temporary factors such as air fares, while core inflation edged lower to 3.1%, suggesting limited broad-based pass-through so far.
• Despite the uptick in inflation, economists expect the Bank of England to hold interest rates at its upcoming meeting, as policymakers assess whether higher energy prices will translate into sustained wage growth, particularly given a softening labour market that may dampen second-round effects.
• The outlook underscores rising stagflation risks, with policymakers facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and supporting growth, as the energy shock adds to existing economic weakness and raises the likelihood of a slowdown in the second half of the year.
• Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain elevated and potentially rise further toward 3.5% by mid-2026, with the IMF projecting a peak near 4%, highlighting the persistence of energy-driven price pressures and the uncertainty around the inflation trajectory.

(Source: Reuters)

• Inflation driven by the Iran war is likely to take two to three years to fully dissipate after the conflict ends, according to analysis by Oxford Economics, underscoring the persistent nature of oil-driven price shocks and their long-lasting economic impact.
• Historically, inflation spikes linked to oil disruptions, such as the 1979 Iranian revolution and the 2022 Ukraine war, have been significantly slower to unwind, with less than a third dissipating after one year, in contrast to non-oil shocks which tend to fade more quickly.
• The ongoing conflict has severely disrupted oil shipments, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed to traffic, cutting off around 20% of global oil supply and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, reinforcing tight supply conditions in global energy markets.
• Higher oil prices have already fed through to fuel costs, with U.S. gasoline prices rising by more than $1 per gallon, while elevated transportation costs are expected to pass through to a wide range of goods and services, broadening inflationary pressures across the economy.
• In addition to energy, other key inputs such as aluminum and fertiliser have also seen sharp price increases, amplifying cost pressures across industrial production and agriculture. Forecasters at Goldman Sachs have pencilled in prices, as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures, rising 3.1% over the year in 2026, a full percentage point above their prewar forecast.
• A key driver of this persistence is that historically, oil exports from conflict zones have been slow to recover to prewar levels. Three years after the 1991 Gulf War, for instance, oil production in Iraq and Kuwait was still down more than 60%.
• "Despite the historical evidence of persistent economic scars from major oil supply shocks, business and investor reactions have been relatively contained to date," noted Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford. "This highlights the risk of an abrupt adjustment in sentiment, particularly in the event of a more prolonged US/Israel war with Iran."

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) has reaffirmed the Issuer/Corporate credit ratings of CariA- and CariA (Foreign and Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale, and jmAA+ on the Jamaica national scale to the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ). The ratings include a single notch up for the likelihood of support, if needed, from the Government of Jamaica (GOJ).
• The regional-scale foreign and local currency ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of PAJ, relative to peers in the Caribbean, is good, while the national scale ratings indicate that PAJ’s creditworthiness, relative to peers in Jamaica, is high.
• CariCRIS also assigned a stable outlook to the ratings, reflecting the high likelihood that PAJ will maintain its profitability and credit metrics over the next 12–15 months. This is supported by solid cargo operations, institutional stability from PAJ’s legislative mandate, and ongoing infrastructure modernisation across the cargo, cruise, and Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) business lines.
• A gradual improvement in global economic activity, with strengthening global cargo and cruise market conditions, is expected to sustain revenue generation and operating performance. Consequently, PAJ is projected to maintain sound financial metrics, stable cash flow generation, strong capitalisation, and adequate debt service capacity over the next 12 – 15 months.
• Changes in operating and financial fundamentals, as well as external conditions, are factors that could lead to a rating change on the PAJ. If Jamaica’s credit rating improves over the next 12–15 months or if PAJ demonstrates stronger performance with increased revenue or profitability, sustaining a Debt-Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) above 2x over the next two years, PAJ could be upgraded.  However, if the agency experiences adverse changes to concession agreements that reduce guaranteed revenues, or from weakening financial metrics, including DSCR falling to 1.5x or below or Return on Assets (ROA) to 3.3% or below for two consecutive years, it could be downgraded.
• Notably, the recent rating affirmation disclosed that the PAJ has shelved the planned listing of its BPO assets on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) due to prevailing market conditions. The PAJ will instead concentrate its efforts on the Caymanas Special Economic Zone (SEZ), on which it intends to spend $8.88Bn in the current March 2027 fiscal year.
• As early as 2021, the PAJ had indicated plans to list an entity which would manage its  BPO real estate assets totalling 852,276 square feet. These assets were situated at SEZs in Montego Bay and the Portmore Informatics Park. The privatisation effort was being handled by the Development Bank of Jamaica, which handles public-private partnership (PPP) transactions. The monetisation of these assets was expected to support investments into other critical projects.

(Sources: CariCRIS & Jamaica Observer)

• Guyana has opened up an estimated US$340Mn in gas-based investment opportunities linked to the Wales Gas-to-Energy project, with the government noting that local investors will be prioritised.
• According to the Department of Public Information (DPI), the Office of the Prime Minister invited expressions of interest for two projects to be located near the Wales Gas-to-Energy 300 megawatts (MW) power plant and associated natural gas liquids (NGL) separation plant on the West Bank of Demerara.
• The ventures include the Guyana Ammonia and Urea Plant Inc. (GAUP), estimated at US$300Mn, and the Guyana Gas Bottling and Logistics Company (GGBLC), valued at about US$40Mn. Both proposed projects were previously advertised and received submissions. The National Procurement and Tender Administration Board (NPTAB) reported that for both the GAUP and GGBLC, 10 groups submitted proposals, with Lindsayca, the company constructing the Gas-to-Energy plants at Wales, vying for both.
• The government said it is targeting investments of up to US$5 million per investor for the GAUP project and up to US$1Mn per investor for the GGBLC, though interested parties may propose higher amounts. Both projects are expected to operate as private companies and will offer a government-guaranteed annual return of 10%.
• DPI said Guyanese investors, including those in the diaspora, will be given priority as part of efforts to broaden local participation in the country’s emerging gas-based industries.
• The projects form part of Guyana’s wider strategy to monetize offshore natural gas resources by developing downstream industries, including fertilizer production and gas distribution, aimed at supporting agriculture, energy access and industrial growth.
• The Gas-to-Energy plants are expected to be completed by the end of 2026, the government has said. First gas through a pipeline installed by ExxonMobil in 2024 is expected to follow after completion, as the government moves to reduce emissions associated with power generation and slash electricity rates. 

(Source: OilNow)

• Trinidadian capital is flooding into Barbados's property market, driven by a search for safer streets and steadier returns, which is squeezing domestic buyers out of an already strained housing stock and pushing rents and sale prices higher. Realtors note that while Trinidadian investment is not new in the country, it is now manifesting more visibly in housing as buyers purchase properties and settle families and loved ones on the island.
• The pressure on housing stock has been compounded by earlier pandemic-era initiatives such as the Welcome Stamp, which positioned Barbados as a premier destination for expatriates and remote workers. This popularity has had the secondary effect of tightening available housing stock, with regional and international interest now placing unprecedented pressure on the local market.
• The rental market is bearing the brunt of the squeeze, with Gary Ramsey (Director of Operations at Ramsey Real Estate) describing "severe shortages of rentals across the board," which complicates the search for suitable homes for local Barbadians. On the sales side, supply-and-demand dynamics are driving prices upward, as investor demand, whether for rentals or outright purchases, creates steady competition with the local market.
• Local buyers are at a structural disadvantage in negotiations, as they typically require financing, while foreign demand often arrives with cash, pre-financing, or significant deposits. Given the time it takes to move through Barbadian financial and legal institutions, this gives foreign buyers a timing edge. In the affordable and middle-income price ranges, where supply is already thin, the "most attractive buyer" with immediate cash tends to move to the head of the queue.
• Human security, not just financial returns, is a primary motivator for Trinidadian buyers, according to long-time real estate professional Julie Dash, who confirmed inquiries from Trinidad have spiked over the past two years. Buyers view Barbados as "relatively safe" and are looking for a sanctuary for their families rather than simply a place to park capital.
• The government has begun focusing on mandates for affordable housing and creative financing to support local demand, with new residential developments being planned "north to south, east to west" according to Ramsey. However, experts warn that construction takes time, and in the short term the market remains "highly competitive," with Barbados continuing to stand out as a robust destination for regional investors seeking both financial stability and a secure lifestyle.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• On Tuesday, April 21, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend the ceasefire with Iran hours before it was set to expire, while maintaining a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran. The extension was intended to allow both sides to continue peace talks until Iran submits a new proposal and discussions are concluded.
• Despite the ceasefire extension, tensions have escalated materially, with Iranian gunboats firing on and seizing multiple vessels on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, including a cargo ship and a container ship, in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening control over the strategic waterway even as ceasefire conditions remain in place.
• This marks the first seizure of ships since the war began at the end of February 2026 and the latest in a series of maritime incidents, highlighting a clear deterioration in security along a critical global trade route. Consequently, traffic through Hormuz, which normally carries around one-fifth of global crude flows, has slowed to a near halt, while U.S. enforcement actions, including vessel interceptions, continue to disrupt shipping activity and constrain supply.
• Oil markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude rising above $100 per barrel, as investors priced in renewed supply risks amid the escalation and lack of diplomatic progress.
• Meanwhile, Iran has signalled it will not reopen the strait while the blockade remains and may attempt to break it by force, while U.S. officials have indicated restrictions will stay in place until negotiations are concluded, reinforcing the risk of further confrontation.
• Overall, the combination of a fragile, largely tactical ceasefire and ongoing maritime disruptions suggests limited prospects for near-term de-escalation, with restricted flows through Hormuz expected to keep oil markets tight and prices supported even beyond any eventual resolution.

(Sources: Reuters, Yahoo Finance & Bloomberg)

• President Trump said the U.S. is considering offering financial support to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), an oil-rich ally dealing with economic fallout from the war with Iran. This highlights growing concerns that the conflict is beginning to strain even well-capitalised economies in the region.
• The war has damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Middle East, disrupting economies that rely on the Strait of Hormuz to transport crude globally. Given that the Strait carries a significant share of global oil supply, these disruptions pose risks to energy security and global supply chains.
• The fact that the UAE has inquired about assistance is notable given its wealth, underscoring the severity and cascading effects of the conflict across oil-dependent economies. This suggests that the economic impact is broad-based and not limited to weaker regional players.
• U.S. officials indicated that any support would aim to deter further attacks and stabilise energy markets, although it remains unclear whether assistance will ultimately be required. The potential use of tools such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund signals a willingness to intervene to contain financial and market instability.
• Some economists suggest the request may be more of a political signal than a financial necessity, as the UAE still maintains strong reserves and a currency peg to the U.S. dollar. This points to the geopolitical dimension of the request, including efforts to reinforce strategic alliances.
• The developments underscore the broader global economic impact of the war, with energy disruptions spreading across regions and increasing pressure on oil-dependent economies. Elevated energy prices and supply uncertainty could feed into higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and slower global growth, particularly for import-dependent emerging markets.

(Source: NY Times)