• The return of Venezuelan crude to international markets could support efforts to restart refinery operations in Trinidad and Tobago, the Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago said in a statement on April 20, pointing to renewed shipments into the United States as a key signal.
• The Chamber highlighted a recent cargo delivery reported by the BBC, noting the arrival of the tanker Minerva Gloria near Chevron Pascagoula refinery, carrying 400,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude.
• "The shipment points to Venezuelan oil returning to major U.S. refining systems… For Trinidad and Tobago, the significance of this development is that it is a potential option to support the country's refining ambitions," the Chamber said.
• On April 1, Reuters reported that Venezuela's monthly oil exports surpassed one million barrels per day in March 2026, the highest level since September 2025.
• The Energy Chamber said production numbers revive the prospect of Venezuelan crude as a potential refinery feedstock, noting that while production figures "do not point to a full sector recovery," they indicate parts of Venezuela's oil industry are active enough again to influence refiners, traders, and neighbouring markets.
• "That matters as Trinidad considers restarting the Guaracara refinery, which will depend on a mix of domestic and imported crude, with Venezuelan barrels among the options that can potentially be considered," the Chamber added.
• According to the Energy Chamber, Trinidad and Tobago once relied heavily on Venezuelan crude to supply its refinery operations, with imports in 2000 reaching more than 18 million barrels. These volumes helped sustain operations at the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery, which depended on foreign crude as domestic production declined.
• However, that supply relationship weakened over time and eventually came to a halt in 2009, forcing Trinidad to source crude from other regions. Therefore, a renewed or revitalised Venezuelan oil sector could once again become a potential supplier for Trinidad and Tobago if refinery operations are restarted.

(Source: OIL Now)

• This week brings with it the April 22, 2026, deadline marking the end of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The intermittent closures of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran and U.S. blockades on Iranian ports reflect highly volatile, on-again/off-again negotiations for a potential peace deal.
• One possible outcome is that no deal is reached by midweek, but the ceasefire is extended, allowing negotiations to continue. The U.S. would maintain its blockade, reinforcing its military presence in the region, and sustaining sanctions pressure, while potentially facilitating the reopening of Hormuz to alleviate further spikes in global energy prices.
• A more adverse scenario is a full resumption of the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict, involving continued closure of key shipping routes such as Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, attacks on regional energy infrastructure, and broader military escalation, which would significantly disrupt global oil and gas supply chains. In such a scenario, oil prices could rise to around $200 per barrel, as prolonged disruption to Hormuz would require prices to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand, with some countries, particularly in Asia, already facing physical shortages.
• Sustained high oil prices would have severe economic and political implications, including sharply higher gasoline prices, reduced consumer spending, and increased recession risks, particularly in the U.S., where energy price spikes could weigh on economic stability and electoral dynamics.
• Despite these risks, both U.S. and E.U. sources suggest a deal remains the most likely outcome, with progress reported on key nuclear issues, although differences remain on timelines, enforcement, and missile capabilities.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• The UK is moving to weaken the link between electricity costs and volatile gas prices, a structure that has kept power prices elevated, weighed on households, and reduced industrial competitiveness.
• Britain has among the highest electricity prices globally due to its energy market structure, where gas sets the price for most power generation. As a result, electricity costs remain closely tied to volatile gas prices, contributing to persistently high energy bills that have been further exacerbated by geopolitical shocks such as the Russia–Ukraine war and the Iran conflict in 2026.
• The government plans to offer voluntary long-term fixed contracts to older renewable energy generators, particularly wind and solar, so they are no longer paid prices linked to gas, helping reduce exposure to gas-driven price volatility.
• The reform is expected to cover around one-third of Britain’s power supply, as part of broader efforts to stabilise electricity prices and shield consumers from external energy shocks. The government will also increase the Electricity Generator Levy from 45% to 55%, aiming to capture excess profits and incentivise generators to shift to fixed-price contracts.
• While the reforms aim to lower bills and support economic growth, analysts note the impact may be limited, with gas still expected to set prices around 50% of the time by 2030, and business groups warning that policy uncertainty could weigh on investor confidence.
• In parallel, the government is looking to accelerate renewable energy deployment, including expanding projects on public land and streamlining planning and grid connections, as part of a broader push to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and improve energy security. The reforms signal a gradual shift toward decoupling electricity pricing from gas, but the limited scope suggests the UK will remain partly exposed to fossil fuel volatility in the medium term.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite lower prices for some agricultural produce as the sector continues to rebound, consumer prices rose in March, reflecting the impact of higher global energy prices on electricity rates and petrol prices paid by local consumers. The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI)in March 2026 increased by 0.3%, according to the latest data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• This was mainly influenced by a 2.3% rise in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. Higher electricity rates led to a 5.1% increase in the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, while the ‘Transport’ division recorded a 0.6% increase, mainly due to higher petrol prices. The higher petrol prices stem from the War on Iran, which has caused significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices.
• The overall increase in the CPI was, however, tempered by a 0.6% decline in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. This fall primarily resulted from a 4.9% decline in the index for the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’ due to lower prices for some agricultural produce, such as tomato, carrot, cabbage, Irish potato and pumpkin.
• Meanwhile, the point-to-point inflation rate as at March 2026 was 4.3%, which is higher than the 3.9% seen for February 2026.
• Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in March, the global energy market outlook has shifted abruptly, with sharp rises in oil and natural gas prices, the key inputs in local electricity and petrol production. Expectations of surplus conditions are now replaced by what is widely regarded as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history.
• Under existing fuel pricing mechanisms, local weekly pricing adjustments are capped at $4.50, which means only a fraction of the increase in petrol prices was passed on to consumers initially. However, the Minister of Energy, Transport and Telecommunications, Daryl Vaz, has announced the implementation of a tiered pricing mechanism designed to align domestic fuel prices more closely with global movements. This new system is expected to allow for larger upward adjustments.
• Notably, more than 80 energy facilities have been attacked since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran. With more than a third of those severely damaged, it could take as long as two years to repair facilities and restore oil and gas production to pre-war levels.
• As a result, fuel prices at the pump are likely to rise and stay elevated, placing upward pressure on the Transport division as well as the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ category, which could in turn contribute to further increases in the CPI in the near term.

(Source: STATIN, NCBCM research & CNBC)

• Latin America’s (LATAM) relative distance from the US-Iran conflict, combined with the region’s commodity-export orientation and the fact that elevated global uncertainty has kept overnight rates higher than expected, has underpinned regional foreign exchange (FX) performance in the first half of 2026 (H1 2026).
• Much of this strength was already priced in before the escalation, suggesting the current performance reflects resilience rather than further upside. That said, the picture beneath the surface is uneven. Net oil exporters like Brazil have outperformed, benefitting from stronger commodity revenues, while net importers like Chile have absorbed the shock more painfully through higher fuel costs, imported inflation and episodic bouts of dollar strength on risk-off flows.
• Even where non-energy export prices have held up, as with Chilean copper, the oil import bill has risen faster and by more than enough to offset the gains. A broader geopolitical realignment and increased international attention on the Western Hemisphere have provided additional support for sentiment across the region.
• The conflict has also complicated the region’s monetary policy trajectory. The oil-driven pass-through inflation has narrowed the window for rate cuts just as many central banks were positioning to ease, forcing policymakers to trade off growth support against renewed price pressures. The ceasefire has provided relief for regional FX, but the stop-start nature of diplomacy and Fitch’s view of continued supply disruptions mean that energy-driven volatility is likely to remain the key swing factor for regional currency performance in the near term.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Wait times to transit the Panama Canal have increased fourfold as the Middle East conflict has led more carriers to use the alternative route, according to shipping services provider WaterFront Maritime Services.
• WaterFront noted that more vessels are waiting to transit the waterway on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides, largely driven by the ongoing Middle East situation and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The increased traffic has also led to higher auction rates, with winning bids now regularly topping $1Mn, WaterFront said.
• “The Panama Canal traffic conditions remain unchanged, with approximately 36 to 40 vessels transiting daily, all under reserved booking slots,” WaterFront said. “Vessels without prior reservations are expected to face extended waiting times, which we are currently unable to estimate.” Of note, wait times for non-booked vessels have risen from around one day on April 5th to more than 4.5 days as of April 17th.
• As more vessels divert to the Panama Canal to avoid riskier routes, congestion will continue to drive up transit costs and extend delivery times, adding pressure to already strained supply chains. Over time, this will likely translate into higher freight rates, increased costs for goods, and greater uncertainty for industries reliant on just-in-time shipping, from energy and raw materials to consumer products.

(Source: ICIS)

• Europe may have just six weeks left of jet fuel, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), raising concerns about significant consequences for the continent’s economy.
• The IEA stated that several European countries could begin facing jet fuel shortages within that timeframe, depending on their ability to replace lost Middle Eastern supply, which previously accounted for 75% of Europe’s net imports.
• IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could result in what he described as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.” Birol indicated that the broader economic effects would include higher gasoline, gas, and electricity prices, with some regions experiencing more severe impacts than others.
• He also noted that worsening oil supply constraints, particularly in April, could lead to increased inflation, reduced economic growth (especially in emerging markets), and potential energy rationing.
• Analysts and industry participants highlighted operational and economic pressures, including halted Middle Eastern supply flows, airline cost increases and weaker bookings (e.g., easyJet), and risks to Europe’s aviation sector, which generates €851.0Bn in GDP and supports 14 million jobs, with peak summer travel expected to face disruption and “harsh economic impacts.”

(Source: CNBC)

• The U.K. economy grew by 0.5% in February, according to preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics published Thursday, overshooting the 0.1% month-over-month expectation polled by Reuters.
• Both services and production grew by 0.5%, and construction grew by 1.0% in February. The rebound came after the economy grew by 0.1% in January (the first estimate from the ONS suggested the economy had flatlined).
• While the data for February was far better than expected, analysts said it will very much be viewed as backwards-looking data given subsequent events in the Middle East, with the U.S. and Iran launching military operations against Iran on Feb. 28. “I’m not really sure it’s reflective of actual conditions in the economy,” George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, told CNBC on Thursday, suggesting residual seasonality was affecting the data.
• “Obviously, this is stale data; we’re going into this new world with the Iran conflict. Going into that, while the February numbers would suggest we’re in a strong position, actually the situation on the ground is probably not quite like that,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

(Source: Reuters)

• Quantas Advantage Inc. has formally launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) by publishing its prospectus dated March 26, 2026, on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) last night.
• According to its prospectus, Quantas is an investment vehicle that provides growth capital to key Caribbean business segments through structured finance and credit-based instruments. The firm generates investor returns by acquiring interests in cashflow-generating assets, such as bonds, leases, and securitised pools, to support private sector expansion.
• The IPO, which has JMMBGL as the lead broker, includes 83,278,509 ordinary shares, with a built-in "upsize" option to issue an additional 50,780,182 shares should investor demand exceed the initial supply.
• Notably, the general public is being offered 21,875,000 shares at a price of US$0.12 (J$19.3941) per share. Institutional Investors are being offered 19,736,842 shares reserved for Strategic Investors at a preferential price of US$0.1140 (J$18.4244). Lastly, anchor investors are being offered 41,666,667 shares reserved at US$0.1080 (J$17.4547).
• The subscription period is scheduled to officially open on April 22, 2026, and is set to close on May 21, 2026, subject to the company’s right to adjust these dates.

(Sources: Jamaica Stock Exchange)

• Jamaica’s Energy and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz is warning Jamaicans to prepare for fuel price increases and possible movement-reduction measures as rising global oil prices place growing pressure on the Government of Jamaica.
• Vaz said the Government is now exploring options to encourage conservation, including a potential return to hybrid work-from-home arrangements similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic. No decision has yet been made, and the matter is expected to go before the Cabinet of Jamaica.
• The discussion comes as state-owned refinery Petrojam absorbed approximately J$1.3 billion in oil price hikes that were not passed on to consumers in the last four weeks. If the price pressures persist up to June 2026, it would cost the government J$11.8 billion to absorb the increases.
• Vaz characterised the situation as increasingly unsustainable, cautioning that Jamaicans should brace for further price increases. While Petrojam currently caps weekly fuel price adjustments at a maximum movement per litre to cushion consumers from sharp fluctuations, he indicated that such constraints may no longer be viable amid prevailing global conditions.
• Vaz noted that between March 12 and April 8, transport fuel prices increased by an average of $49.20 per litre. Of that amount, only $18 was passed on to consumers because of the cap, leaving Petrojam to absorb the remainder.
• He also suggested that policy changes aimed at reducing fuel consumption may be necessary. Despite rising costs, Vaz stressed that Jamaica’s fuel supply remains secure.
• Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran–U.S. conflict and the effective disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, the global oil market outlook has shifted abruptly from expectations of surplus conditions to what is now widely viewed as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history. This is being transmitted to domestic fuel prices and is emerging as a key near-term upside risk to consumer prices via the Transport Division, given its high sensitivity to energy costs.
• Furthermore, with the economy already subdued, any additional movement restrictions could further dampen economic activity, particularly by constraining key sectors such as tourism, retail, and informal trade that are vital to day-to-day commercial flows

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly & NCBCM Research)