• Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, whose term at the U.S. central bank ends later this month, has highlighted that aggressive U.S. interest rate ​cuts are needed this year to keep the economy moving forward.
• "I think policy is ‌clearly restrictive and holding the economy back," Miran said in an interview with the Fox Business channel. He noted that the underlying inflation is basically at the Fed's 2% target, and he expects the economy to grow robustly this year, arguing that a failure by the Fed ⁠to lower short-term borrowing costs could ‌upend that outlook.
• He is controversially serving at the Fed while on leave from his role as a top economic advisor to President Donald Trump, who has ‍repeatedly pressed the central bank to deliver big rate cuts. The Fed lowered its benchmark overnight interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point last year, including a 25-basis-point cut in December that left the rate in ​the 3.50%-3.75% range.
• Miran dissented against that move in favour of a 50-basis-point cut. He has ‌used his time at the Fed to argue that huge changes in immigration related to the Trump administration's crackdown on immigrants will help lower inflation, and that the Fed needs to get ahead of that development by cutting rates. The Fed lowered rates three times last year to help offset rising job market weakness. Many of its policymakers, however, are still wary of inflation that remains well above the ⁠2% target, largely due to Trump's aggressive tariff hikes.
• Fed officials ​have currently pencilled in one rate cut for this year. ​Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who is a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, said on Saturday that "some modest further adjustments to ‍the policy rate would likely ⁠be appropriate later in the year" if her economic expectations are realised.

(Source: Reuters)

• The euro zone economy expanded at a slower pace last month but ended 2025 with its strongest quarterly growth in more than two years as solid momentum in services offset a manufacturing contraction, a ⁠survey showed today. While manufacturing activity shrank, persistent growth in services kept the common currency bloc in a steady expansion last year, even in the face of US tariffs on European imports.
• HCOB's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index for the bloc, compiled by S&P Global ‍and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, eased to 51.5 in December from November's 30-month high of 52.8, below a preliminary estimate of 51.9.
• That finish healthily above the 50-mark, which separates growth from contraction, meant the economy expanded every month in 2025, a streak not seen since 2019. The fourth-quarter average PMI reading of 52.3 was the highest since the second quarter of 2023. New orders expanded for the fifth month in a row but ⁠at the weakest pace since September, with the manufacturing sector showing a quicker decrease in new factory orders while services companies reported softer sales growth.
• Meanwhile, The services business activity index ⁠eased ‍to 52.4 from November's two and a half year high of 53.6. Spain was the standout performer with its composite index rising to a two-month high, while Germany's expansion moderated to a four-month low. Italian ‍business barely grew, and French private sector activity stagnated. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated to a ⁠nine-month high with intensifying price pressures across both sectors, though output price inflation remained unchanged from November.
• Overall employment growth ticked slightly higher ⁠from November, though it remained marginal due to continued manufacturing job cuts.

(Source: Raidió Teilifís Éireann Media (RTE))

• TransJamaican Highway Limited (TJH) is set to redeem up to 15% of its 8.0% JMD Cumulative Redeemable Preference Shares on January 22, 2026, following a 5% redemption in July 2025.
• The redemption is scheduled for the sixth anniversary of the preference shares’ issue date. This follows TJH’s earlier commitment to limit optional redemptions to a maximum of 15% this year of its preference share, originally issued in January 2020 for US$27Mn.
• Payment of the redemption amount will be made on January 30, 2026, to eligible Preference Shareholders through the Jamaica Central Securities Depository Limited (JCSD).
• TJH has the option, but not the obligation, to redeem up to 20% of the principal amount on the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th anniversaries of the issue date, with interim redemptions being executed but limited to a maximum of 20% per anniversary year.
• Offering a fixed dividend of 8%, these preference shares are scheduled to mature over eight years by January 2028. An earlier redemption of the preference shares, however, frees up more cash for TJH to pay to its ordinary shareholders. Furthermore, the redemption reflects TJH’s ongoing deleveraging strategy, as reducing outstanding preference shares lowers the company’s fixed dividend commitments and strengthens its capital structure. By funding these redemptions within the limits set at issuance, TJH is using its improved cash flow and balance sheet capacity, given its robust operational performance, to gradually reduce higher-cost capital while maintaining financial flexibility.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• S. President Donald Trump said American oil companies will move to invest heavily in Venezuela’s oil sector, hours after Washington announced the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro following U.S. military strikes. In a public address, Trump said U.S. oil majors would “go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure and start making money for the country.” He added that Venezuela had been producing far below its potential.
• Trump also asserted that the United States had historically built Venezuela’s oil industry, claiming that the “socialist regime stole it”, which he described as one of the largest thefts of American property in U.S. history.
• The comments followed the announcement that Maduro had been captured during early-morning strikes on January 3. U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi said Maduro has already been indicted in the Southern District of New York on several counts, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons-related charges.
• Washington has long accused Maduro of running a narco-state and rigging the 2024 election, which the opposition claims it won. The developments triggered regional security responses almost immediately.
• Guyana went on alert, with President Irfaan Ali convening an emergency meeting of the Defence Board and national security officials. Police and military units were deployed near the border. At the regional level, Caribbean Community leaders also met to assess possible spillover risks. Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said her country supported U.S. pressure on Venezuela but played no role in the military operation.

(Source: OIL Now)

• The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. military forces unleashed a serious diplomatic crisis in the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC).
• What was intended to be an emergency session called by Colombia and Brazil to condemn foreign intervention instead exposed a sharply divided region, unable to reach a unified position on Washington’s military operation.
• At the centre of the split, the Dominican Republic aligned with a bloc of ten countries, led by Argentina, that blocked consensus on rejecting the U.S. action. The bloc – comprising Argentina, the Dominican Republic, Paraguay, Peru, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, and Trinidad and Tobago – reportedly plans a joint statement that would validate Maduro’s arrest, citing allegations of transnational narcoterrorism, according to diplomatic sources and reports from Infobae.
• This position marks a turning point for Dominican foreign policy, signalling a departure from its traditionally cautious stance in multilateral forums. On the opposing side, a progressive bloc including Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Honduras, Cuba, and Nicaragua warned that the operation sets a dangerous precedent by violating national sovereignty.
• The divide even extends within countries, such as Chile, where outgoing President Gabriel Boric condemned the action while president-elect José Antonio Kast praised it. With Venezuela politically destabilised and CELAC unable to issue a joint response, the organisation’s silence has become a powerful symbol of Latin America’s growing fragmentation.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if economic and price developments move in line with its forecasts. Japan's economy sustained a moderate recovery last year despite the hit to corporate profits from higher U.S. tariffs, Ueda said in a speech delivered to the country's banking sector lobby.
• "Wages and prices are highly likely to rise together moderately," Ueda said, adding that adjusting the degree of monetary support will help the economy achieve sustained growth.
• The BOJ raised its policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75% from 0.5% last month, taking another landmark step in ending decades of huge monetary support and near-zero borrowing costs.
• Despite the move, Japan's real borrowing costs remain deeply negative with consumer inflation exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for nearly four years. Markets are focusing on the BOJ's quarterly outlook report due at its policy meeting on January 22-23, for clues on how the board views the inflationary impact from recent yen falls.
• The yen's weakness has pushed up import costs and broader inflation, prompting some board members to call for further, steady rate hikes. The dollar rose 0.2% to ¥157.08 after reaching ¥157.255 for the first time since December 22.
• Market expectations of further BOJ rate hikes have pushed up yields, with those on the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) briefly hitting a 27-year high of 2.125% on Monday. Speaking before the same banking lobby, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan was at a critical stage of shifting to a growth-driven economy, from one mired in deflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• The main risk to the U.S. economy from the Trump administration’s capture of Venezuela’s leader over the weekend would stem from rising oil prices, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said, but that does not appear to be underway so far.
• The risk is “mostly through oil prices,” Kashkari said in an interview on CNBC. “When Russia invaded Ukraine, it sent a commodity shockwave all around the world. It didn’t happen with Hamas attacking Israel. It has not happened now with the U.S. and Venezuela. But that’s the mechanism that… would directly affect the US.” “I don’t see it so far,” he added.
• In the biggest intervention in Latin America since the 1989 invasion of Panama, U.S. Special Forces over the weekend captured Venezuela’s long-time leader, Nicolas Maduro, and brought him to New York to face drug trafficking charges.
• Commodity and financial asset markets so far have shown only a modest response to the surprise development. U.S. light sweet crude oil prices on Monday were about 1% higher but were not far above five-year lows touched in December.

(Sources: Reuters)

• The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) reported that the Jamaican economy grew by 5.1% in the July to September quarter of this year, compared with the same period last year. This was the result of increases in the Goods Producing Industries of 10.9% and the Services Industries of 3.3%
• The economy’s performance reflected recovery from the negative impacts of Hurricane Beryl in July 2024, largely driven by increased activity in industries most affected, including Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Mining & Quarrying, Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management and Accommodation & Food Service Activities.
• The recovery in the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry was further aided by favourable weather conditions during the period and ongoing efforts from both government and private sector entities to boost production capacity. Furthermore, Growth was recorded for all the Goods-Producing industries, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (20.9%), Mining & Quarrying (4.0%), Manufacturing (8.4%) and Construction (5.5%).
• The 3.3% expansion in the Services Industries resulted from increases across all Services industries, except for Public Administration & Defence, which declined by 0.7%. Improved performances was recorded in Electricity, Water Supply & Waste Management (6.7%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (3.1%), Accommodation & Food Service Activities (6.8%), Transport & Storage (7.1%), Information & Communication (1.5%), Financial & Insurance Activities (5.3%), Real Estate & Business Activities (1.0%) and Education, Health & Other Services (2.5%).
• Real value added (seasonally adjusted) increased by 1.1% in the third quarter of 2025 when compared with the second quarter of 2025, marking the third consecutive quarterly growth for 2025. This performance was attributed to a 2.1% increase in the Goods-Producing Industries and a 0.8% increase in the Services Industries.
• Looking ahead, the catastrophic impact of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa on October 28, 2025, has vastly shifted the outlook of the economy. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has projected a severe economic contraction of 11.0% to 13.0% for the October–December 2025 quarter, marking the country's worst quarterly performance since the onset of the 2020 pandemic.
• This unprecedented shock, which caused physical damage estimated at US$8.8Bn (approximately 41% of 2024 GDP), has effectively wiped out the 5.1% growth achieved in the third quarter and is expected to result in a full fiscal year decline of 3.0% to 6.0%. With key sectors like Agriculture and Tourism facing massive infrastructure losses and a US Level-3 travel advisory further dampening visitor arrivals, the economy is not forecast to return to positive growth until the last quarter of 2026.

(Sources: STATIN, PIOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Supreme Ventures Ltd. (SVL) announced that initial discussions are underway with Dolla Financial Services Limited to divest its Evolve Loan Co’s loan portfolio and selected assets, including its digital lending solutions to the company.
• The planned transaction represents a deliberate capital management initiative aimed at optimising group balance sheet efficiency, reducing credit risk concentration and improving risk-adjusted returns, while maintaining exposure to future value creation in the loan portfolio.
• Following the divestment, Evolve will pivot toward an asset-light operating model with a strategic focus on loan origination, digital enablement, and fee-based income streams. This shift is expected to improve returns on capital while reducing balance sheet risk.
• The acquisition supports Dolla’s growth strategy by expanding scale and strengthening its lending platform. For Supreme Ventures, the transaction enhances capital flexibility while preserving participation in future value creation through its 15% equity ownership in Dolla Financial Services Limited.
• SVL’s stock price has declined by 30.1% throughout the 2025 calendar year, closing at $17.38 on December 31, 2025. At this price, the stock closed at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.4x, which is higher than the Main Market average of 13.4x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) has maintained its policy repo rate at 3.5%, citing well-contained inflation, improving liquidity conditions, and lingering weakness in the non-energy sector. In its Monetary Policy Committee announcement, the Bank said the decision was taken against a backdrop of modest global economic prospects and tentative domestic growth.
• 'Global economic prospects remain modest as persistent geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty dampen economic activity,' the Committee noted. It also pointed to the International Monetary Fund's October 2025 World Economic Outlook, which projected world output growth of 3.2% in 2025, marginally lower than the 3.3% recorded in 2024.
• The Committee stated that while economic growth in the United States (U.S.) has shown resilience despite labour market challenges and above-target inflation, the Central Bank said other major economies continue to face softer growth alongside stubbornly elevated inflation. International energy prices, which the Bank described as a barometer of global economic conditions, have also softened in recent months.
• Globally, monetary policy has shifted towards easing, with central banks placing greater emphasis on supporting economic growth. The CBTT highlighted that several monetary authorities reduced policy rates between October and December 2025.
• In particular, the US Federal Reserve lowered its federal funds target range by 0.25% to 3.50–3.75% in December and announced the commencement of buy-backs of short-term government bonds amounting to US$40Bn per month to support market liquidity. As a result, short-term US treasury yields softened, while interest rates on T&T three-month treasuries firmed. This narrowed the negative T&T–U.S. interest rate differential on three-month treasuries to -74 basis points as of December 26, 2025, from -230 basis points in July 2025.
• That said, the Committee acknowledged rising uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions between the United States and neighbouring Venezuela, but noted that inflation remains low and liquidity conditions have improved. 'However, economic growth is somewhat tentative. The positive effect of higher energy production in the second quarter of 2025, driven by two new natural gas fields, may be partially offset by a non-energy sector that is losing momentum across several sub-sectors. This suggests that the domestic economy is still in need of support to engender a sustained recovery,' it stated.
• The report also highlighted the importance of safeguarding the country's foreign reserves, given T&T's high import dependence. Foreign reserves rose from US$4.6Bn in October 2025 to US$5.3Bn as of December 19, 2025, although the Bank cautioned that conventional indicators of reserve adequacy warrant close monitoring.

(Source: Trinidad Express Newspaper)