• The U.S. economy is showing some strains after years of resilience, with domestic demand moderating and job growth slowing, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday, September 11, 2025.
• IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said inflation was on a path to meet the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but some risks could push it higher, largely because of tariffs imposed on imports by the Trump administration. "What we've seen over the past few years is that the U.S. economy has proven to be quite resilient. We do see now that some strains are beginning to show," she told a regular briefing. "Domestic demand has been moderating in the U.S., and job growth is slowing."
• Kozack said the front-loading of imports early in the year in anticipation of tariffs had caused some volatility in economic activity in the first half, and tariffs were now adding to inflation risks. As a result of the combined factors, she said, the IMF saw scope for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, although it should proceed cautiously, with an eye on emerging data. She gave a regular briefing that a downward revision in U.S. employment data announced on Tuesday was a "bit larger" than the historical average.
• The U.S. government said 911,000 fewer jobs were likely created in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, suggesting that job growth was stalling before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. Such revisions could be driven by a variety of factors, including statistical issues and some related to response and survey errors, she said, adding the issue would be discussed during the scheduled IMF review of the U.S. economy in November.
• The Labour Department's inspector general on Wednesday said it was initiating a review of challenges that the Bureau of Labour Statistics faces in collecting and reporting U.S. economic data after it made large downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls and cut its inflation data collection. Earlier sharp downgrades to May and June payroll figures angered Trump, prompting him to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and accuse her, without evidence, of faking the data. Trump has nominated E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to replace her.
• Kozack refused to be drawn on the credibility of U.S. data, saying only that the IMF strongly advocated for accurate, timely and reliable data from all its members. "This kind of data transparency strengthens the credibility of economic management in all countries," she said.

(Source: Reuters)

• World oil supply will rise more rapidly this year, and a surplus could expand in 2026 as OPEC+ members increase output and supply from outside the group grows, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. This is in contrast to OPEC's updated outlook.
• The IEA said that supply is set to rise by 2.7Mn barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from the 2.5Mn bpd previously forecast and by a further 2.1Mn bpd next year.
• OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after it decided to unwind its second layer of output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply has raised concerns of a surplus and weighed on oil prices this year.
• Supply is rising far faster than demand in the IEA's view, even though it upwardly revised its forecast for growth in world demand this year to 740,000 bpd, up 60,000 bpd from the previous forecast, citing resilient deliveries in advanced economies. "Oil markets are being pulled in different directions by a range of forces, with the potential for supply losses stemming from new sanctions on Russia and Iran coming against a backdrop of higher OPEC+ supply and the prospect of increasingly bloated oil balances," the IEA said in the report.
• IEA demand forecasts are at the lower end of the industry range, as the agency expects a faster transition to renewable energy sources than other forecasters.
• OPEC, on the other hand, maintained its forecast that demand will rise by 1.29Mn bpd this year, almost double the rate expected by the IEA, and said the world economy was doing well into the second half of 2025. The upbeat outlook follows the decision of the wider OPEC+ on Sunday to further raise its oil output quotas from October as its leader, Saudi Arabia, pushes to regain market share.
• Oil prices declined on Thursday, with Brent crude trading just below $67 a barrel. This is still up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mexico announced on Wednesday that it will raise tariffs on automobiles from China and several other Asian countries to 50%, as part of a broader revision of import duties aimed at protecting domestic industries.
• According to the Economy Ministry, the new tariff measures will affect approximately $52 Bn of imports across multiple sectors, including textiles, steel, and automotive. Import duties on Chinese cars, which currently stand at 20%, will be increased to the maximum level permitted under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
• Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the measures were designed to support local employment, noting that Chinese vehicles were entering the domestic market below reference prices. The government expects the tariffs to protect an estimated 325,000 industrial and manufacturing jobs at risk.
• The policy, which still requires congressional approval, will apply to countries without free trade agreements with Mexico. This includes China, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand, and Turkey.
• Beyond automobiles, the measures include a 35% tariff on steel, toys, and motorcycles, while textiles will see tariffs ranging between 10% and 50%. In total, the new duties are projected to affect 8.6% of Mexico’s total imports.
• The tariff plan is also expected to raise an additional $3.76 Bn in revenue next year, according to government estimates.
• Analysts noted that the decision comes amid growing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, with Mexico navigating its position as a key U.S. trade partner. Mexico has nearly doubled its trade deficit with China over the past decade, reaching $120 Bn in 2023. Some analysts suggested that aligning import policies with U.S. interests could reduce potential trade frictions, given the upcoming review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) scheduled for next year.

(Source: Reuters)

• Panama may open talks early next year with First Quantum Minerals on the possible restart of its shuttered Cobre Panamá copper mine.
• Commerce Minister Julio Moltó told local newspaper El Capital Financiero that the government will begin talks with First Quantum once an environmental audit is completed in three to four months. The audit is due to start within weeks, Moltó said. The review, conducted by SGS Panama Control Services, is to assess environmental, social and economic impacts, including employment opportunities for Panamanians.
• The mine has been closed since November 2023 after Panama’s Supreme Court declared its operating contract illegal. President José Raúl Mulino has identified the reopening of Cobre Panamá as a top priority for his administration, following reforms to the country’s social security fund pension system. However, Mulino has said the audit must come first before any decision on reopening.
• Before its closure, Cobre Panamá ranked among the world’s largest copper producers, yielding 350,000 tonnes in 2022, its final full year of operations. The mine contributed about 5% of Panama’s GDP, and First Quantum estimates the suspension has cost the country up to $1.7Bn in lost economic activity.
• Minera Panamá, First Quantum’s subsidiary, and other companies tied to the project have suspended international arbitration proceedings against the government, clearing the way for talks. Locals around the mine rallied the government in June to reopen operations.
• First Quantum has maintained the facility to ensure it can resume operations if an agreement is reached.

(Source: The Northern Miner)

• Investors ploughed nearly US$45Bn into their emerging market (EM) equities and debt portfolios in August, the most in nearly a year, but a large outflow from EM stocks outside of China pointed to a change of sentiment among investors, according to a report from a banking trade group.
• The US$44.8Bn net inflow for last month compares with $38.1Bn in July, which was sharply revised lower from US$55.5Bn, and compares favourably with US$28.2Bn in August 2024, according to data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
• Chinese debt and stocks took in over US$39Bn net last month, while ex-China debt attracted US$13.2Bn. Stocks outside of China saw a US$7.4Bn outflow after three months of inflows. The shift "marks the weakest month for EM equity flows since the (Northern) spring and reflects a significant reversal in sentiment toward ex-China markets," Jonathan Fortun, senior economist at the IIF, wrote in a statement published alongside the data.
• Yet an external tailwind could give EM assets support, as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs following its meeting next week. Lower rates in developed economies help funnel investments into EMs that offer higher yields.
• Asia attracted US$18.1Bn, while Latin America added US$8.9Bn, partly boosted by debt flows to Mexico and Brazil, according to the report. EM Europe added US$8.7Bn, and the Middle East and North Africa US$5.8Bn more, the IIF data showed.
• "All (regions) posted higher inflows than the previous month, yet the underlying pattern still reflects the outsized role of China in portfolio allocations," Fortun wrote. August marked the largest inflow to Chinese equities since February. “Investor positioning appears increasingly sensitive to headline risk and policy noise, especially in economies exposed to external shocks or electoral cycles,”.

(Source: Reuters)

• S. wholesale inventories increased slightly less than initially thought in July, suggesting businesses were not rushing to rebuild inventory after stocks were depleted in the second quarter.
• Wholesale inventory edged up 0.1%, after rising by an upwardly revised 0.2% in June, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday, September 10, 2025. Economists had expected wholesale inventories to rise by 0.2%, unchanged from the flash estimate, compared to the 0.1% uptick originally reported for the previous month.
• Inventories, a key part of gross domestic product, gained 0.2% in June and further advanced 1.3% on a year-over-year basis in July. Wholesale stocks of motor vehicles dropped 1.6%, but stocks of apparel surged 1.9%, while those of prescription medication increased 1.8%. Grocery inventories increased 2.0%.
• Inventories decreased at a US$32.9Bn annualised rate in the second quarter, subtracting 3.29 percentage points (pps) from GDP. That was, however, more than offset by a record 4.95pp contribution from a smaller trade deficit.
• Sales at wholesalers jumped 1.4% in July after rising 0.7% in June. With sales increasing by much more than inventories, the inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers edged down to 1.28 in July from 1.29 in June. This implies that it would take wholesalers 1.28 months to clear shelves, down from 1.29 months.

(Sources: Reuters & NASDAQ)

• In its latest Country Risk Report, Fitch Solutions pointed out that Jamaica’s updated economic policy framework aims to foster a strong, inclusive environment by investing in education, implementing prudent economic policies, reducing crime, and promoting environmental sustainability and resilience.
• Fitch sees the potential for further improvement in Jamaica’s enabling environment over the near and medium term, driven by sustainable macroeconomic policy frameworks, microeconomic policy enhancements, and continued investment in security.
• In recent years, the government has made significant progress in improving macroeconomic policies and strengthening institutions, helping to reduce public debt, stabilise inflation and inflation expectations, and bolster Jamaica’s external position.
• These policies are expected to continue, supported by robust policy and institutional frameworks and a political consensus that prioritises continued fiscal and monetary stability and sustainability. Specifically, Fitch pointed to strengthened monetary and financial frameworks, through inflation targeting, de-dollarisation, and enhanced banking regulation, that are reinforcing long-term macroeconomic stability and should support investment and growth.
• However, while a high debt burden has historically been a major obstacle to growth in Jamaica, that debt reduction alone will be insufficient to accelerate growth. Low productivity, the high economic cost of crime, skills gaps, elevated energy costs, infrastructure weaknesses and exposure to global economic shocks and natural disasters will continue to weigh on growth and dynamism.
• To address these challenges, the Jamaican government has outlined an economic development strategy that seeks to leverage its improved macroeconomic stance to drive progress in other areas critical to long-term growth.
• Modern infrastructure development is at the heart of Jamaica’s 2025/2026 economic agenda. It focuses on transportation, water, healthcare, energy, broadband access, and special economic zones (SEZs). The government also aims to attract investment in oil and gas, diversify energy sources, and grow the global services sector through improvements in infrastructure, workforce skills, digital transformation, and regulatory reforms.
• However, despite Jamaica's stated goal of investing in infrastructure development, lingering budget execution issues may constrain the government's ability to fully implement its ambitious policy agenda.

(Sources: Fitch Solutions)

• Net Remittance Inflows to Jamaica increased year-over-year in June 2025, by 2.8% to US$267.5Mn according to data sourced from the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) remittance bulletin. The increase was primarily due to a US$8.2Mn (2.9%) increase in total remittance inflows. However, this was marginally offset by a 5.4% rise in remittance outflows.
• The increase in total remittance inflows was attributed to higher flows via the Remittance Companies channel and partly offset by a decline via the Other Remittances channel.
• Amid the June 2025 increase, the U.S. remains the largest source market for remittance flows to Jamaica. The U.S. accounted for 68.2% of total flows, down from the 68.5% recorded for June 2024. The United Kingdom (11.4%), Canada (9.9%) and the Cayman Islands (6.2%) were also notable sources.
• Looking ahead, the Trump administration's policy changes for trade and immigration pose risks to remittance inflows to Jamaica. Recently, the administration announced a 1.0% excise tax on cash-based remittances. However, local remittance firms expect little fallout as strong digital adoption by consumers and years of investment in alternative remittance channels could act as key buffers.

 (Sources: BOJ & NCBCM Research)

• Mexico expects its budget deficit to fall slightly in 2026 to 4.10%, as GDP growth is projected to increase, the finance ministry said during the government's budget presentation.
• The deficit is expected to close 2025 at 4.32%, while the government maintains a pledge to support social programs and provide financial backing for state-owned oil company Pemex, which carries a significant debt load.
• Finance Minister Edgar Amador said, "Although the international environment still presents risks stemming from uncertainty and trade tensions, it also opens up opportunities that we must seize." The government forecasts Latin America’s second-largest economy to expand between 1.8% and 2.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points on both ends of the range. This projection is higher than both the IMF’s growth forecast of 1.4% in 2026 and the Bank of Mexico’s most recent forecast of 1.1%.
• The ministry also placed its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 at 3.0%, in line with the Bank of Mexico’s target, which is expected to be reached by the third quarter of next year. Along with a slowdown in inflation, the ministry anticipates a more accommodative monetary policy stance. The Bank of Mexico's benchmark interest rate is projected to close at 7.25% in 2025, 75 basis points lower than previously expected, and to decline further to 6% by 2026. Last month, the rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 7.75%, its lowest in three years.
• In terms of state-owned enterprises, Pemex is projected to receive 263.5Bn Mexican pesos (US$14.14Bn) in 2026 to help meet debt and loan payments.
• The budget proposal also indicated that Mexico’s General Import Tax will be reviewed in 2026 to support national development, including potential tariffs on countries such as China that do not have a trade agreement with Mexico. In addition, the draft budget announced new excise taxes aimed at discouraging consumption of certain products, like soft drinks, video games, and nicotine pouches.

 (Source: Reuters)

• Brazilian coffee exports to the United States fell 46% in August, while shipments to Latin American neighbours increased, according to coffee exporters group Cecafe. Cecafe President Marcio Ferreira.
• Brazil is the world's largest producer and exporter of coffee, while the United States is the largest consumer. U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee fell to 301,099 bags in August, down from 562,723 in the same month last year, following the imposition of a 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods, including coffee.
• The tariffs have also affected Brazil’s instant coffee industry. According to ABICS, Brazil’s instant coffee exports to the U.S. in August fell 59.9% to 24,460 60-kilogram bags, compared to 65,914 bags in the same month last year.
• Despite a decline in total exports to Germany, the country remained the largest importer of Brazilian coffee, receiving 414,109 60-kilogram bags in August. Meanwhile, exports to Mexico and Colombia rose 90% and 578%, reaching 251,166 and 112,948 bags, respectively.
• Brazil's national crop agency Conab, and the International Coffee Organisation have warned that the tariffs could push coffee prices higher. As a result, Brazil, which incidentally is also the world’s second-largest coffee consumer, may experience increased domestic prices, potentially affecting inflation.