• In line with BMI’s expectations, the Jamaican economy expanded by 1.6% year-over-year (y-o-y) in Q2 2025, up from 1.1% in the previous quarter, as it continues to recover from Hurricane Beryl in 2024. Q2 growth was supported by low inflation, growing employment levels, and a historically low unemployment rate.
• Favourable domestic macroeconomic indicators persist in Jamaica, underpinning BMI’s cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy in the near term. Higher-frequency indicators for Q3 2025 also support this view. Consequently, BMI maintained its forecast that Jamaica’s economy will grow by 1.6% in 2025 and by 1.5% in 2026.
• Overall employment in Q3 grew by 2.3% y-o-y, the labour force expanded compared to the year before, and the unemployment rate was steady at 3.3% - a historic low. Remittances have also remained robust in the face of a challenging external environment, growing by 3.6% y-o-y in Q2 and helping support household income and consumption.
• Additionally, relevant production indicators point to growth in H2 2025. Total bauxite production in July grew by 4.5% y-o-y, supported by improved alumina production, driving overall year-to-date growth to 2.7% – a tailwind for the mining industry, which suffered losses in Q2. The reopening of the Alpart plant (closed since 2019) in Q4 2025 will further boost the mining sector.
• For the tourism sector, preliminary estimates also show continued strength in tourism in Q3, with airport arrivals estimated to have increased by 16.5% in July 2025. Finally, Jamaica will benefit from positive storm-related base effects in H2 2025, while an expected reduction in the policy rate in Q4 2025 will support growth through increased investment and consumption.
• Overall, Jamaica’s economic growth in H1 2025 is encouraging, but several risks persist. Ongoing trade uncertainty and weak external demand will likely weigh on the economy through 2025 and into 2026. U.S. immigration policies and new taxes on remittances may reduce these vital flows in the medium term. Extreme weather remains a threat, especially to tourism, agriculture and mining. While crime has dropped significantly – murders are down 40.9% year-to-date as at October 4, 2025 – it remains elevated and could still hinder investment and growth.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Jamaica’s Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator the Hon. Aubyn Hill, is urging the United Kingdom (UK) to explore a special visa scheme aimed at easing the movement of Jamaican and Caribbean service professionals within the United Kingdom.
• Senator Hill proposed that such an initiative be structured under the CARIFORUM-UK Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), which governs trade and investment relations between Jamaica and the UK. Unlike traditional trade agreements, the EPA also covers areas such as competition policy, intellectual property rights, regional integration, and cultural cooperation.
• Highlighting the importance of services to Jamaica’s economy, Senator Hill noted that while the Government is committed to advancing manufacturing, exports, and the productive capacity of the private sector, services remain the largest contributor to the island’s GDP.
• The Minister emphasised that a special visa arrangement would be particularly advantageous for creative industry professionals - including musicians, models, theatre practitioners, and entertainers - seeking to work in the UK. He underscored Jamaica’s commitment to continued dialogue on the issue, stressing that sustained engagement is critical to the effective implementation of the EPA.
• Senator Hill also signalled that Jamaica is preparing to welcome British nationals who wish to work remotely from the island, with the Government reviewing tax arrangements to support this initiative. “We want Jamaica to be an even more attractive destination for individuals seeking to live and work while contributing to major international companies,” he added.
• Nationals from several Caribbean countries are currently required to obtain a visa to visit the United Kingdom. This includes citizens of Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, and Dominica. Previously, these nations were part of the UK’s visa-exempt list, allowing their nationals to travel without a visa for short stays. However, due to a significant increase in asylum applications from these countries, the UK Home Office implemented visa requirements.

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The international reserves of the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD) fell by US$592.8Mn between August and September 2025, declining from US$13,887.6Mn to US$13,294.8Mn, a 4.3% decrease, according to official data. This drop occurred amid a global environment marked by dollar appreciation and rising external account pressures.
• As a result, reserve coverage fell from 5.1 months to 4.9 months of imports, though this remains within the IMF’s recommended range. Analysts suggest that the decline could be linked to public debt payments, higher imports, foreign exchange interventions or reduced inflows from exports and tourism.
• Despite the fall, reserves remain above the adequate level equivalent of three months of imports, but experts caution that continued decreases could pressure exchange rate stability.
• Meanwhile, remittances continued to show strong performance. Between January and September 2025, the country received US$8,912.8Mn in remittances, up US$914.1Mn (11.4%) from the same period in 2024. In September alone, remittances totaled US$991.8 million, an 11.9% increase year-over-year.
• The United States remained the primary source, contributing 80.5% (US$729 million) of the total. The BCRD highlighted that these funds play a crucial role in boosting consumption, investment, and social support, especially for vulnerable sectors.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• Preliminary estimates show that the Cayman Islands’ economy expanded at an annualised rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2025, slightly moderating from the 3.6% growth estimated in Q1 2024. The expansion was broad-based, fueled by sustained demand across core service industries. Notable expansions include electricity and water supply (+4.6%), hotels and restaurants (+4.5%), business activities and administrative services (+4.3%), health and social services (+4.7%), and finance and insurance services (+2.9%). Key infrastructure sectors also posted gains, with wholesale and retail trade up 3.9%, and construction increasing by 2.3%.
• The performance reinforces a positive outlook, with real GDP projected to grow by 2.6% for the year. The central government recorded an overall surplus of CI$244.8Mn in the year’s first three months. This reflected revenue of $554.1Mn and expenditure of $309.3Mn
• The central government’s outstanding debt declined to $396.9Mn as of March 2025 from $445.9Mn as of March 2024. Cayman Islands’ economy continued its growth streak in 2024, with real GDP expanding by 3.1% to $5.21Bn, underpinned by expansion across all major sectors. Financial services, which account for over 30% of GDP, had a solid 2.9% increase, driven by robust demand and the jurisdiction’s growing share in global insurance markets.
• The economic performance for the year was largely driven by the services sector, which accounted for 89.1% of GDP and increased by 2.9%. Actual indicators suggest robust growth in the construction sector (up 3.0%), real estate (+2.9%), other services (up 3.1%), the wholesale and retail trade sector (up 3.7%), and health and social work (up 3.0%).
• Overall, the 2024 economic upturn signals continued confidence in the Cayman Islands’ development, while pointing to a generally synergistic and integrated economy with complementary sectors. The government ended the year with a net borrowing of $6.5Mn. This resulted from the total revenue of $1,127.1Mn falling below its total expenditure of $1,133.6Mn.
• Despite the excess spending for the period, the central government’s outstanding debt decreased to $405.2Mn at the end of 2024, representing a 10.6% decrease from the figure recorded at the end of 2023

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The Bank of England needs to be very cautious about future rate cuts as British inflation looks set to remain the highest in the Group of Seven advanced economies this year and next, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Tuesday.
• The advice from the IMF's Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas comes after the Fund forecast Britain's economy would grow 1.3% in 2025 and 2026 - a 0.1 percentage point upward revision for 2025 and a 0.1 percentage point downward revision for 2026 compared with the last forecasts in July.
• While this leaves Britain on track to be the second-fastest-growing economy in the G7 this year after the United States and third-fastest in 2026, consumer price inflation is forecast to average 3.4% this year and 2.5% next year, the IMF said, the highest in the G7 and an upward revision since April's forecast.
• The IMF said the higher inflation forecast partly reflected one-off rises in regulated prices and "is projected to be temporary, with a loosening labour market and moderating wage growth". But Gourinchas said there were upward risks to these forecasts as British businesses' and households' expectations for future inflation had been rising and wage growth remained high.
• The BoE has cut rates five times since August 2024, lowering them to 4% from 5.25% but the most recent rate cut in August was only approved by a narrow 5-4 margin and financial markets do not fully price in another cut until March 2026. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has said he expects rates to be cut again, but when and by how much depends on inflation pressures in the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Fed is facing a rare and contradictory economic environment, characterised by stronger-than-expected growth (with growth estimated near 4.0%), coupled with a potentially stagnant or declining job market indicated by negative private-sector job growth in September. Fed officials, like Governor Christopher Waller, noted that this contradiction, growth alongside negative job growth. is unsustainable, and one of the two metrics must soon adjust.
• The economic picture is further complicated by President Donald Trump’s policies, specifically tariffs and immigration restrictions, which economists worry could lead to the worst-case scenario: simultaneous higher inflation and higher unemployment. While investment is driving short-term productivity gains, the long-term cost of tariffs is expected to be passed to consumers, with projected inflation to remain above the target through next year.
• The decision-making is severely hindered by a U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed the release of critical official data, including the jobs report. This forces policymakers to rely on incomplete, private-sector indicators to gauge the job market's health before the meeting.
• Policymakers are divided between those who believe inflation remains unanchored and needs higher rates and those who fear the job market is on the verge of a fast slide and needs further rate cuts. Despite the risks, officials like Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson and Governor Waller currently view a path of cautious, quarter-point rate cuts this year as appropriate to balance inflation control with protecting the job market.
• Investors generally expect the Fed to proceed with two more this year, lowering the benchmark rate to the range. However, some analysts warn that if inflation expectations become unanchored due to the delayed pass-through of tariff costs, these expected cuts could be viewed in hindsight as a policy mistake

(Source: Reuters)

• For July 2025, net Remittance Inflows to Jamaica increased 4,6% year-over-year to US$281.9Mn according to the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). The increase reflects a US$13.4Mn (+4.6%) increase in total remittance inflows, which was marginally offset by a 5.4% (US$1.0Mn) rise in remittance outflows.
• There were higher flows via the Remittance Companies channel, but the increase was partly offset by a decline via the Other Remittances channel.
• The U.S. remains the largest source market for remittance flows to the island, accounting for 68.1% of total flows, down from the 68.4% recorded for July 2024. The United Kingdom (11.2%), Canada (10.5%) and the Cayman Islands (6.0%) were also notable sources.
• Year to date, net remittances have increased by 3.1% to US$1.94Bn, supported by higher remittance inflows (+3.9%) in tandem with lower remittance outflows (-9.9%).
• Looking ahead, remittances are anticipated to remain steady for the next two years, further supporting the outlook (Fitch Ratings). However, the announcement of a 1.0% excise tax that will take effect on December 31, 2025, on cash-based remittances from the US and tighter immigration policies are key risks that could reduce remittance inflows to the country. However, local remittance firms expect little fallout from the 1.0% excise tax as strong digital adoption by consumers and years of investment in alternative remittance channels could act as key buffers.

(Sources: BOJ and NCBCM Research)

• On October 13, 2025, Trinidad and Tobago’s (T&T’s) Minister of Finance Honourable Davendranath Tancoo made his first National Budget presentation since the reelection of the United National Congress (UNC) under the theme “Building Economic Fairness through Accountable Fiscal Policies”.
• In the presentation, the government of Trinidad and Tobago (GoTT) has forecasted a FY2025/2026 deficit of TTD3.865Bn (2.17% of GDP). This outturn is based on an oil price assumption of US$73.25 per barrel, down from US$77.80 in the previous fiscal year, a natural gas price assumption of US$4.25 per MMBtu, up from US$3.59, and anticipated oil revenue of TTD55.367Bn.
• The 2026 Budget focuses on diversification across agriculture, manufacturing, renewable energy, tourism and the creative industries, which opens new avenues for business and collaboration. Therefore, with projected revenue of TTD55Bn, including non-oil revenue of TTD43Bn (81%), the country continues to make progress in broadening its economic base beyond oil and gas.
• Amongst the announcements were a 0.25% levy on the assets of Commercial Banks and Insurance Companies Operating in T&T; a landlord business surcharge of 2.5% for rental income equal to or less than TTD20,000,3.5% for rental income above TTD200,000; and an increase in Fees, Charges, and Excise Duties. All measures are set to take effect on January 1, 2026. These measures, while increasing revenue, also contribute to a more balanced financial framework for the national budget.
• To support domestic financing, the Minister revealed plans for a new National Investment Fund (NIF) Bond backed by 21% of the Government’s shareholding in First Citizens Bank Holdings Limited. This is aimed at raising TT$1Bn, which is likely the first phase of a broader domestic financing strategy. Additionally, the GoTT announced the implementation of a 3% increase in the contribution rate of the NIF effective January 5, 2026, followed by another 3% increase from January 4, 2027, and the gradual adjustment to the retirement age for a full NIS pension to 65 from 60 over the next 10 years.
• Equally significant is the renewed focus on youth development and education, with an allocation of TTD8.77Bn (14.8% of total expenditure) to build the future talent and skills base of the nation. Overall, the GoTT is set to prioritise investments in education, followed by investments in Health (TTD8.214Bn) and national security (TTD6.366Bn).
• The Government’s strong emphasis on reform, disciplined financial management, and governance, if executed efficiently and in a timely manner could significantly improve the diversification prospects of the economy by reducing the dependence on energy, increasing labour productivity, and promoting a more business-friendly environment. That said, the deficit is expected to average 2.3% for fiscal years 2026-2028 and will likely be financed with domestic, external, and multilateral lending, as well as possible withdrawals from the sovereign wealth fund, the HSF.

(Sources: GoTT, Aegis Budget Newsletter, S&P Global Ratings)

• Total offshore production from Guyana’s Stabroek Block has hit over 700,000 barrels of oil per day, President of ExxonMobil Guyana Limited Alistair Routledge confirmed at a press briefing on Monday, October 13.
• The start-up of the Yellowtail development is behind the spike. The project struck oil on August 8. According to Routledge, Yellowtail production was “around 740,000 barrels per day in September”. Production is now somewhere around 770,000 barrels per day.
• Yellowtail is the fourth producing project offshore Guyana, joining Liza 1, Liza 2, and Payara. Together, the developments give the country more than 900,000 b/d of installed production capacity. All four are situated in the prolific Stabroek Block, operated by ExxonMobil, along with partners Hess, which was recently acquired by Chevron, and CNOOC.
• With a gross domestic product (GDP) growth projected at 10.3%, Guyana is the fastest-growing economy in the Latin America and the Caribbean region by a significant margin according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• Guyana’s explosive growth is largely due to the considerable investment and ongoing development in its oil and gas industry with ExxonMobil and its partners having outlined plans to boost output capacity to 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030. Guyana grew by 43% in 2020, peaked at 63% in 2023, and is forecasted to grow by an additional 10.3% in 2025.

(Sources: Oil Now & ECLAC)

• Surging business investment is expected to offset weaker growth in consumption and global trade and keep the U.S. economy growing near trend, according to a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey. However, slow job growth, higher unemployment and stickier inflation will mar the outlook.
• The Trump administration's new import taxes remain a drag on the economy's performance, the survey concluded, with more than 60% of the 40 economists in the poll estimating tariffs would knock up to half a percentage point from economic growth, with both imports and exports falling, and consumer prices rising as a result of the levies.
• While none of the polled economists saw tariffs boosting growth, the latest version of NABE's quarterly survey upgraded the more pessimistic views about the U.S. outlook. This upbeat in the growth outlook follows projections offered earlier in the year when concerns about the economic blow from tariffs and the risks of a broader trade war were at their peak. That said, the median projection was for the economy to grow 1.8% in 2025, around most estimates of underlying potential, compared to 1.3% projected in the June survey.
• Inflation as measured by the Federal Reserve's preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures price index was seen ending the year at 3%, down slightly from the 3.1% projected as at June. But it was also seen declining only to 2.5% in 2026, compared to 2.3% in the June survey, indicating a slower return towards the Fed's 2% target.
• The unemployment rate, meanwhile, was seen rising through next year though less than feared as at June to 4.5% versus 4.7% in the prior survey.
• More notably, the Fed is seen cutting interest rates, though at a slightly slower pace than anticipated by investors, with only one more rate cut anticipated this year versus the two quarter-point cuts currently priced into contracts tied to the central bank's benchmark interest rate.
• Overall, the survey highlighted one of the ongoing puzzles that Fed officials in particular are trying to understand - GDP growth that has begun surprising to the upside while job growth remains tepid.

(Source: Reuters)