• Brazil's government faces an added challenge as it prepares to update its economic forecasts, with market volatility and uncertainty linked to the conflict in ​Iran complicating projections that underpin this year's budget management.
• The Finance Ministry is expected within two weeks to release its fresh forecasts for 2026 GDP growth and inflation, inputs for the government's bimonthly revenue and expenditure report.
• The first report ​of the year, due by March 24, will reassess revenues and spending ​against the approved budget and determine whether a spending freeze is needed ⁠to comply with fiscal rules. "If the war shows no signs of ending and refineries ​or production are disrupted or halted, there will be medium-term damage," the source added, ​citing concerns about inflation and monetary policy.
• This year's budget assumed GDP growth of 2.4%, inflation at 3.6%, Brent crude averaging about $65 a barrel, and an exchange rate of 5.76 reais to the dollar. However, since the ​conflict erupted less than two weeks ago, oil prices have swung sharply. It briefly neared $120 ​a barrel this week before retreating to about $83 on Tuesday. Brazil's Treasury said last week that oil prices of up to $85 a barrel could have positive fiscal effects, but warned that levels above $100 could begin to generate real inflationary pressure.
• Oil is Brazil's top export and higher prices boost ​government revenue through royalties ​and dividends from ⁠state-controlled oil company Petrobras. However, concerns about inflation stemming from the conflict have strengthened bets that the central bank may begin its long-awaited easing ​cycle more cautiously than previously expected, with a 25-basis-point (bps) cut rather ​than 50 bps.
• Higher ⁠average interest rates would push up Brazil's debt burden, as nearly half of the country's large public debt is linked to the benchmark Selic rate, which has been held steady ⁠since ​July at 15%, its highest in nearly two decades. A ​prolonged conflict would likely worsen debt dynamics, offsetting the direct revenue gains from higher oil prices, acknowledged a ​third economic team source.

(Source: Reuters)

• Rising global LNG prices amid escalating Middle East tensions could boost export revenues for Trinidad and Tobago, according to Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal, though the country faces constraints in expanding natural gas production in the near term.
• As a net LNG exporter, Trinidad and Tobago is considered more resilient than LNG-importing economies during global supply disruptions, since it is not directly exposed to physical disruptions affecting Gulf producers such as Qatar or key shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
• However, the country remains linked to global LNG price movements through the restructured Atlantic LNG pricing formula, which references international benchmarks including Title Transfer Facility (TTF), National Balancing Point (NBP), Japan Korea Marker (JKM), and Brent crude, meaning geopolitical risk premiums in futures markets can raise realised export prices.
• While higher LNG prices create potential revenue upside, Trinidad and Tobago cannot quickly increase export volumes because upstream gas production constraints and existing contractual obligations limit immediate supply expansion, meaning most near-term gains would be price-driven rather than volume-driven.
• Energy analyst Anthony Paul noted that higher LNG prices may be partially offset by rising shipping and insurance costs, as global conflict disrupts trade flows and tightens the supply of LNG carriers, although Trinidad and Tobago’s routes avoid the Strait of Hormuz and may face smaller insurance premiums.
• Former prime minister Stuart Young warned the conflict could push up global oil and fuel prices, particularly as tankers avoid the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and refined products move daily, potentially driving inflation and higher living costs globally, including in Trinidad and Tobago.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• Prices consumers pay for a broad range of goods and services rose in line with expectations for February, offering a final look at inflation pressures before an oil shock tied to the Iran war rattled the outlook.
• The consumer price index(CPI) increased a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.4%, according to Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data released Wednesday. Both numbers matched the Dow Jones consensus forecast. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core CPI posted a 0.2% monthly reading and 2.5% annual rate, compared to forecasts for 0.2% and 2.5%, also in line with the estimates.
• The annual rates were unchanged from January, indicating that inflation was holding above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target but not getting worse. While the report showed inflation broadly stable, prices rose modestly for shelter and services while several goods categories, including used vehicles and auto insurance, saw declines.
• Markets reacted little to the report, with stock market futuresmixed and Treasury yields higher. The data predates the recent surge in oil prices tied to escalating tensions involving Iran, meaning any impact from higher energy costs will likely show up in the months ahead. The U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran dramatically changed the outlook, at least in the near term. Following the attack, crude oil climbed sharply amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.
• Higher oil prices could complicate the inflation outlook in coming months, as increases in gasoline and other energy products often filter through to transportation, shipping and a wide range of consumer goods. Sustained gains in crude prices can quickly show up in headline inflation readings even if underlying price pressures remain stable.
• However, economists generally view such moves as temporary and likely to abate once the Iran situation cools. Crude prices are well off their highs after briefly popping above $100 a barrel on Monday but were up about 4% in Wednesday trading.
• From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, the February CPI report likely keeps the central bank on hold as it watches how a series of interest rate cuts last year, plus the current geopolitical tensions, impact the economic outlook. Traders expect the next rate cut to come in September, and were assigning about a 43% chance of a second move before the end of the year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

(Source: CNBC)

• Oil tumbled amid mounting assurances from global leaders that policy interventions will blunt the impact of the Iran war on energy prices, while the conflict continues to disrupt crude production and refining in the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 12%, following a dramatic session on Monday, highlighting heightened volatility in global oil markets.
• International Energy Agency Executive Director, Fatih Birol, said he has convened an “extraordinary meeting” of the intergovernmental group to assess market conditions on Tuesday, while Group of Seven nations asked the agency to prepare scenarios for the release of emergency oil stockpiles as the Middle East crisis roils markets. These measures reflect growing efforts by policymakers to stabilise energy markets.
• In addition, US President Donald Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions and get the country’s navy to escort tankers through the vital Strait of Hormuz, while also saying he was open to speaking with Iran. The developments collectively fuelled expectations that world leaders would intervene before the worst of any supply shock emerges.
• Prices remain up by more than 50% this year as fears that a conflict would hinder supplies from the Middle East increasingly materialise. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have lowered their collective output by as much as 6.7 million barrels a day, while the war has effectively closed the region’s main export route and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed significantly.
• The oil market is experiencing one of its most volatile periods on record, with Brent fluctuating around $87 a barrel on Tuesday after trading as high as $119.50 and as low as $83.66 the previous day. Financial flows and options markets have exacerbated price swings as investors assess how the conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will affect global energy supply.

(Source: Bloomberg News)

• For the first quarter ending January 2026 (Q1 2026), Scotia Group Jamaica (SGJ) recorded a 2.0% decline in earnings to $4.12Bn as growth in operating income was offset by higher expenses.
• Total operating income (net of credit losses) rose 9.8% year-over-year to $17.90Bn. This growth was underpinned by a robust loan portfolio, which drove a 10.2% increase in net interest income to $13.47Bn. A 7.5% rise in other income and 21.5% ($480.54Mn) jump in net fee and commission income, the latter primarily resulting from optimised card-related expenses, also bolstered operating income.
• Other revenues also increased by $328.92Mn to $462.61Mn due to increased insurance proceeds received from Hurricane Melissa.
• However, annual asset taxes totalling $1.80Bn (a 6% increase over 2025) was among the contributors to a rise in operating expenses (14.7%) to $11.11Bn. Beyond tax obligations, the increase in expenditure also reflects a strategic focus on technology infrastructure, which continues to drive other operating costs.
• Despite the 2.0% decline in Q1, SGJ could see earnings improve post-Melissa. The group’s aggressive loan portfolio growth, particularly within the residential mortgage and commercial sectors, positions its banking segment to capitalise on credit demand surrounding post-Hurricane Melissa reconstruction efforts.
• At the same time, the maturation of its digitisation initiatives should enhance operational efficiency across the group. By simplifying internal processes and improving client engagement, these investments are expected to generate cost efficiencies over time. However, upfront implementation costs and technology investments may weigh on near-term profitability before the full benefits are realised.
• Nevertheless, several risks remain. Rapid loan portfolio expansion could expose the group to higher credit risk if post-storm economic conditions weaken or borrowers face repayment challenges. Additionally, while declining interest rates reduce funding costs, they may also compress lending margins depending on the pace of asset repricing.
• SGJ’s stock price has declined by 5.0% since the start of the year to close at $50.48 on Monday, March 9, 2026. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9x, above the Main Market Financial Sector average of 1.1x.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Kingston Wharves Limited (KWL) reported a 32.6% increase in its shareholder profit to $3.46Bn for the year ended December 2025. This improvement was anchored by robust expansion in revenues and fair value gains.
• Revenue increased by 18.3% to $12.67Bn, driven primarily by improvements from both divisions, Terminal and Logistics Services.
• The Terminal Operations Division, its larger segment, contributed $8.40Bn in revenues (+24.0%) and $3.1Bn in Operating profit (+45.0%). This performance was driven by strong growth in the company’s global auto-transshipment business and increased volume in bulk and break-bulk cargo.
• Meanwhile, the Logistics Services Division saw more moderate topline growth, up 7.8% to $4.2Bn, however, operating profit declined by 17.9% to $1.13Bn. This performance primarily reflects a combination of lower levels of activity, reduced rates and higher operating costs.
• KWL successfully protected its assets from the ravages of Hurricane Melissa and maintained uninterrupted operations through proactive preparedness. As Jamaica continues its recovery, KWL’s operations will be integral in facilitating the movement of relief supplies and supporting the wider national restoration efforts. This strategic positioning presents a significant growth opportunity for the Company and could deliver sustained value for shareholders.
• Of note, management has indicated that it will continue to closely monitor market conditions while supporting recovery efforts in tourism and broader national infrastructure. In the near term, the Company is focused on advancing efficiency and cost management initiatives, alongside enhancements to its overall port security architecture to strengthen operational performance. KWL expects that these measures will support revenue and earnings growth over time by enabling the port to service a more diverse customer base and handle a wider range of speciality cargo.
• KW’s stock price has increased by 4.9% since the start of the year to close at $36.14 on Monday, March 9, 2026. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/E) ratio of 14.6x, below the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 19.7x.

 (Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• A surge in diesel prices is emerging as the most immediate threat to Brazil's agricultural sector following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, raising costs for producers harvesting a record soybean crop and planting corn they cannot afford to delay. Brazil imports roughly 30% of its diesel needs, leaving farmers exposed as domestic fuel costs rise alongside global oil prices.
• The conflict comes at a particularly sensitive time, as diesel demand is at its seasonal peak. Farmers are hauling soybeans to market, harvesting remaining fields, and wrapping up planting of the second corn crop, which accounts for most of the corn grown in the country. As the world's largest soybean exporter and a major corn supplier, any disruption to Brazil's farm operations carries significant consequences for global grain markets.
• These activities cannot be postponed, industry officials stressed, nor can other critical fieldwork, such as applying fertilisers and pesticides, which also depend heavily on diesel. "Right now, the main issue is the price of diesel. We saw oil move from around $80 to the $100-per-barrel range, and that has caused alarm in the countryside," said Bruno Lucchi, technical director at farm lobby CNA.
• Oil prices jumped above $119 a barrel on Monday before easing somewhat, with Brent crude still trading near $100, up more than 7%, by early afternoon local time. The rise in diesel prices is already being felt even though Petrobras, which supplies most of the market, has not yet adjusted its prices. Farmers in Rio Grande do Sul have also reported diesel delivery problems, with some suppliers allegedly restricting sales as higher oil costs squeeze margins.
• While higher costs or disruptions to nitrogen fertiliser imports from Iran remain manageable for now, since farmers had already secured supplies for the current season, diesel is an immediate and pressing problem. Cleiton Gauer, superintendent at Mato Grosso farm economy institute Imea, noted that diesel and lubricants typically account for about 5% of farm operating costs. Pump prices have reportedly risen by about 1 real per liter across Brazil's center-west and southern regions, with some cases up as much as 1.5 reais.

(Source: Reuters)

• Costa Rica's GDP growth is forecast to slow to 3.9% in 2026, following a 4.6% expansion in 2025, as the economy returns to its pre-pandemic trend rate of around 3.8% real growth. This moderation follows an average annual expansion of 5.4% between 2021 and 2025, with 2025 growth driven primarily by exports (+3.8%) and private consumption (+2.5%), supported by the free trade zone manufacturing sector and 75 basis points (bps) of monetary easing by the central bank (BCCR).
• Private consumption will remain the backbone of growth in 2026, underpinned by a favourable inflation environment and continued monetary easing. The BCCR has cut rates by 575bps since early 2023, bringing the policy rate to 3.25%, with scope for an additional 25bps cut before year-end. Inflation turned negative at -2.53% year-on-year in January 2026, supporting real household incomes alongside a 1.6% minimum wage increase, while unemployment held at a manageable 6.3% in December.
• Export growth is expected to moderate in 2026, partly due to the colón's continued strength, which appreciated a further 4.6% in February to CRC474/USD. However, the impact will be cushioned by ongoing U.S.-Costa Rica trade dialogue, depreciation pressure from a widening current account deficit, and the resilience of free trade zone industries. The services sector, which posted a US$6.5Bn surplus through Q3 2025, remains a key pillar, with high-value advanced manufacturing, business services, and medical devices anchoring the export base. However, tourism may face headwinds from both the strong currency and a rise in domestic crime.
• Public spending and fixed investment are expected to see only modest gains under President Laura Fernández, who has pledged to maintain fiscal consolidation. Government consumption contributed just 0.2pp on average to annual growth under her predecessor, and while Fernández has signaled some targeted spending on security and infrastructure, the scope for stimulus remains limited. Lower interest rates and continued inflows into high-value industries should provide some support to private investment.
• Risks to the outlook are skewed to the downside, driven primarily by fiscal constraints and deteriorating security conditions. Costa Rica's elevated public debt could force strict adherence to the country's debt-anchored fiscal rule, curtailing growth stimulus. Meanwhile, if crime is not brought under control by the new administration, it risks dampening business activity and discouraging multinational investment in the country.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• With oil spiking to $100 a barrel and the job market essentially paralysed, the threat of stagflation again is looming over the U.S. economy and financial markets. High inflation and slow growth present a double threat, as stimulative measures such as interest rate cuts and government spending only aggravate inflation. In contrast, persistently higher prices can dampen the labour market and consumer spending, which together drive more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
• Markets were rattled again on Monday, March 9, 2026, over the prospect of prolonged fighting in the Middle East, with U.S. crude oil soaring past the $100 a barrel mark for the first time since 2022. The surge in energy costs came just a couple days after the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that the economy lost 92,000 jobs in February 2026 while the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4%, continuing a pattern of stagnant job growth that began in early 2025.
• At the same time, core inflation as measured through the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge last stood at 3%, a full percentage point above the central bank's target. Bond yields have mostly risen during the Iran crisis, indicating investors are pricing in an inflation scare from the oil price surge, while markets are paring back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• If the oil shock persists, the Fed's dual mandate would be stuck between the increasing risk of higher inflation and rising unemployment. Market veteran Ed Yardeni said he has raised his odds of 1970s-style stagflation to 35% as the Iran war is the latest stress test of the U.S. economy's resilience since the start of the decade.
• Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, futures traders were pricing in June for the next Fed rate cut, with at least one more before the end of year. However, that first cut has now been pushed out to September, July at the earliest, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve will focus on defending its 2% inflation goal while waiting for more data on risks to inflation and employment.

(Source: CNBC)

• The war in Iran and soaring energy prices could fundamentally alter Europe's economic prospects, but the European Central Bank (ECB) should take its time to reassess policy and stay on its present course for now, three policymakers said on Tuesday. Markets have been pricing rate hikes from the ECB over the past week on the premise that surging energy costs will quickly feed into consumer prices and the bank will want to prevent such price pressures from perpetuating rapid inflation.
• Austrian central bank chief Martin Kocher said it is also crucial not to act hastily but rather to think carefully and consider the scenario thoroughly, while at the same time waiting to see how the situation develops. He said the aim was to manage interest rate developments to ensure inflation does not become entrenched, adding that the ECB was prepared to respond quickly and clearly if needed.
• Financial markets, which fully priced in a rate hike by mid-year on Monday, now see just a 50% probability of such a move. But that is still a big change compared to two weeks ago when investors saw steady rates all year, with a small chance of a rate cut, due to weak inflation.
• Lithuania's central bank chief Gediminas Simkus said the ECB should not reassess policy with every market move, given exceptional volatility, and should stay calm, taking stock at its next meeting on March 19. He said that if you start thinking about monetary policy in the morning, you may end up with very different thinking in the evening.
• Estonia's central bank chief, Madis Muller, also made the case for a measured response and said the ECB needed to weigh whether the energy price shock was temporary or a longer-lasting shift. He added that even if the ECB should not rush into decisions, the probability of the next change in the policy rates now being more towards an increase rather than the opposite has gone up in the last couple of weeks.

(Source: Reuters)