• The local agro-industrial sector is set to receive a significant boost following a deepening of bilateral relations with Japan, aimed at improving productivity, resilience and export readiness among small enterprises.
• Under a Japan-funded project being implemented by the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO), approximately US$200,000 will be injected into the country’s agro-processing industry.
• The initiative forms part of the wider ‘Industrial Development and Technology Transfer among the member states of the Caribbean Community’ programme, under which Jamaica has been selected as the demonstration country for agro-industrial technology transfer.
• The programme will provide direct support to micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) while also strengthening the capacity of the Jamaica Business Development Corporation (JBDC) to deliver advanced, technology-driven services.
• Utilising a structured, three-pronged approach with a strong focus on incubation support, the initiative will give participating enterprises access to equipment such as steam-jacketed kettles, hammer mills, dehydrators, freeze dryers, density meters, and screw presses, enabling them to scale operations and improve efficiency.
• Acting CEO of the JBDC, Harold Davis, said the initiative, designed to support MSMEs through technology transfer, capacity building, and improved market access, will help businesses compete more effectively.
• Through the application process, being implemented in collaboration with the JBDC, selected enterprises will receive integrated support packages combining access to appropriate equipment and technical advisory services. Special emphasis will be placed on businesses affected by Hurricane Melissa. Highlighting the critical role of MSMEs in Jamaica’s economy, Japan’s Ambassador to Jamaica Kohei Maruyama, said the programme is designed to strengthen their capacity not only to withstand shocks but also to drive inclusive growth.
• The application period, expected to close on May 15, 2026, seeks to welcome eligible applicants that are legally registered manufacturing enterprises operating in Jamaica, particularly within the agro-processing, furniture and wood products, as well as the wellness and cosmeceutical sectors. Women-led and youth-led enterprises are strongly encouraged to apply.

(Source: Ministry of Industry Investment & Commerce)

• The Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) stock market recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the Central Bank’s latest Annual Economic Survey. In 2025, declines in the Composite Price Index (CPI) deepened, falling 11.8%, driven by a 13.2% drop in the All T&T Index (ATI) and a 7.3% contraction in the Cross Listed Index (CLI). As a result, total stock market capitalisation fell 10.2% to $91.9Bn. Investor pessimism is being fueled by the underperformance of the domestic energy and non-energy sectors, alongside global and domestic uncertainty. For the four (4) years, the index has declined by 54.5%.
• In contrast, the Small and Medium-sized Enterprise (SME) Market index rebounded, recording double-digit gains for most of 2025, though it ended 2025 modestly at 1.6%. Improvements in Eric Solis Marketing Ltd’s performance, and the addition of Medcorp Ltd, the fourth company to be listed on the SME Market, contributed positively to the overall gains observed.
• That said, the performance of regionally-listed stocks deteriorated. The decline in stock exchanges in Barbados and Jamaica contributed to the falls in the CEI. However, stock market capitalisation in Guyana rebounded strongly, increasing by 29.9%.
• Nevertheless, bursts of activity contributed to an overall improvement in turnover. For 2025, the first-tier market observed 129.5Mn (+46.9%) shares exchanged at a value of $994.1Mn (+18.2%), corresponding to a turnover ratio of 1.02 (2024: 0.79). The Conglomerates index recorded the highest trading volume, accounting for 44.5% or 57.6Mn shares, while the Banking index captured 55.6% of total trading value, amounting to $552.4Mn.
• In the bond market, primary debt grew in 2025 despite lower issuances. The local bond market recorded 11 (-31.3%) primary issues at a face value of $11,992.41Mn. up from $10,175.6Mn in 2024. The Government was the only issuer in the market, raising funds for budget support and debt refinancing. Value of trades on the secondary government bond market was also higher, while the volume of trades dipped in 2025. The secondary market recorded 419 (-2.1%) trades at a face value of $262.6Mn. In comparison, a total of 428 trades were recorded at a face value of $96.9Mn in 2024.
• For 2025, the 1-year rate increased by 66 basis points (bps) to 4.60% while the two-year rate jumped by 35bps to 4.65%. During the period, the three-year and five-year rates advanced by 55bps and 39bps to 4.56% and 5.26%, respectively. The benchmark 10-year rate gained 35bps to 5.91%.

(Sources: Trinidad Express Newspapers & NCBCM Research)

• Chile’s Central Bank (BCCh) and Brazil’s Central Bank (BCB) took diverging policy paths last week (April 28th and 29th). The BCCh held its policy rate steady at 4.50%, while the BCB delivered a modest 25 basis point (bps) cut to 14.50%, reflecting different domestic conditions despite the shared global shock.
• Both central banks pointed to the escalating US–Iran conflict as a key driver of uncertainty, with the surge in global oil prices raising concerns about inflation, weakening growth prospects, and increasing the difficulty of setting forward-looking monetary policy.
• In Chile, the impact has been particularly acute due to the government’s decision to allow higher global oil prices to pass through to domestic fuel costs, resulting in a sharp rise in fuel prices and pushing inflation from below target (3.0%) toward a projected 5.2% by the end of 2026.
• The inflation surge comes at a fragile moment for Chile’s economy, which has already shown signs of contraction and rising unemployment. Yet the scale of price pressures is expected to force the BCCh into rate hikes, potentially lifting rates to 5.00% despite the weak growth backdrop.
• In contrast, Brazil has benefited from relatively resilient financial markets and a stronger currency, allowing the BCB to continue its easing cycle, though at a slower and more cautious pace as 2026 inflation forecasts edge higher (4.6% from 3.9% previously) and policymakers grow wary of external risks.
• That said, there are considerable risks to Brazil’s forecasts, given the uncertain global geopolitical environment and the contingency of the view on a Flávio Bolsonaro election win in October. The baseline assumes the majority of easing takes place after the election; if the opposite outcome materialises, there is likely to be a symmetric risk of hikes (particularly in the event of global energy prices remaining elevated).
• For Chile, should the war continue for longer than expected, there are both upside risks to the inflation and interest rate forecasts, given the strong pass-through of inflation into the domestic economy and the risk of destabilised inflation expectations. However, if the US and Iran can reach an accord leading to normalising prices, the BCCh could opt instead to view the external price shock as transitory, which presents little threat to the two-year inflation outlook, leading them to hold the rate at 4.50% through the end of the year.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Oil prices jumped about 6% on Monday, May 4, 2026, as Iran stepped up attacks on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and ships in the Middle East Gulf, with Brent rising 5.8% to $114.44 per barrel and WTI up 4.4% to $106.42.
• Iran hit several ships in the Strait of Hormuz and set a UAE oil port ablaze, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to use the U.S. Navy to free up shipping triggered the war’s biggest escalation since a ceasefire was declared in early April. Following the reported drone and missile attacks on the UAE by Iran, the UAE said it marked a serious escalation, and it reserved the right to respond.
• As part of its efforts to counter the escalation and maintain shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military said it destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted cruise missiles and drones fired by Tehran.
• Notwithstanding, Trump has struggled to find a solution to the disruption of international energy supplies caused by Iran's blockade ​of the strait, which carried a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) before the war. Without a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could remain above $100, and U.S. gasoline prices could reach $5 a gallon by June, according to analysts. Notably, motorists in California are already paying $6 per gallon.
• In response to the energy crisis, the UAE energy minister, following the country’s exit from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) last week, said it would continue producing to meet global market demand without restrictions, while cooperating with other producers. Meanwhile, OPEC+ said it would raise oil output targets by 188,000 barrels per day in June for seven members, marking the third consecutive monthly increase.

(Source: Reuters)

• U.S. Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, told the European Union (EU) and German trade officials over the weekend that the U.S. will move ​forward with President Donald Trump's plan to raise EU car import tariffs to 25%.
• According to ‌a statement made by Greer on Monday, May 4, 2026, to CNBC, the tariff should be considered ⁠as part of a larger negotiation or a permanent state. As of Monday, the new tariffs had not been officially ​adopted.
• Trump said on Friday, May 1, 2026, he would increase tariffs on cars from the European Union to 25% next week from the previously agreed 15%, saying the bloc had not complied with its trade deal with Washington. However, the European Commission ​rejected Trump's claim that Brussels was not complying with last summer's trade deal and noted that ​it would keep its options open to protect EU interests if Washington breached the terms of the agreement.
• Trump ‌fired off ⁠the tariff post amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and the EU over the war in Iran and European countries' refusal to send navies to open the Strait of Hormuz. The White House said Friday it plans to remove 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany after German Chancellor Friedrich ​Merz said the U.S. ​was being "humiliated" by ⁠Iran in talks to end the conflict in the Middle East.
• The Trump administration last year imposed a 25% tariff on global automotive imports under ​a national security trade law, but reached a separate deal with the ​EU in ⁠August 2025 to lower those duties to a net 15%, inclusive of prior duties.
• Shares in German carmakers slid on Monday, 4 May 2026, following Trump's decision to hike U.S. tariffs on imported European cars to 25% from the 15% levy ⁠previously agreed, dealing a fresh blow to the already battered sector.

(Source: Reuters)

• The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key interest rate on hold Thursday, April 30, 2026, as it warned that risks to growth and inflation had “intensified” as a result of the war in the Middle East. The central bank for the 21 countries that use the euro left its benchmark deposit rate at 2.0%, where it has been since June last year.
• In a statement, the bank said that while its previous assessment of the inflation outlook was largely unchanged, “the upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified.” It said its governing council remained committed to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at the 2% target in the medium term.
• Acknowledging that the war in the Middle East had led to a sharp increase in energy prices, pushing up inflation and weighing on economic sentiment, the ECB noted that “the implications of the war for medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock and the scale of its indirect and second-round effects.”
• “The longer the war continues, and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy,” the bank stressed. The ECB noted that it would closely monitor the situation and take a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining its monetary policy stance. Policymakers would not pre-commit to a particular rate path, it emphasised.
• The ECB’s decision came after flash data out Thursday showed inflation in the euro zone jumped to 3% in April, driven largely by a rise in energy costs in the region. Growth slowed in the first quarter, expanding by a meager 0.1%.

(Sources: CNBC & Euractiv)

• The Bank of England (BOE) kept interest ​rates on hold on Thursday, April 30, 2026, and set out a range of possible economic impacts from the Iran war, the worst of which might entail "forceful" rate rises, while less damaging outcomes may not require any increase ‌at all. Facing deep uncertainty about the duration of the conflict and the damage it will wreak on Britain's economy, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep the BoE's benchmark Bank Rate at 3.75% as only Chief Economist, Huw Pill, sought a hike to 4%.
• The decision was in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists, but investors responded by scaling back their bets on BoE rate hikes this year. A day after the U.S. Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, and shortly before the European Central Bank stayed ​on hold too, the MPC said it would monitor the Middle East closely.
• Faced with such deep uncertainty over the war, the BoE opted not to publish a central economic forecast. Instead, it produced three scenarios based on energy prices and different degrees of second-round effects. Britain is seen as highly vulnerable to the jump in energy prices due to its heavy use of natural gas.
• Under the most damaging Scenario C, where oil prices peak at $127 a barrel and remain above $100 until mid-2028, inflation could peak at 6.2% in early 2027. This is almost double its most recent reading, and projections indicate that prices would stay above the BoE's 2% target for the coming three years, based on current market expectations for rates. If that risk materialised, it was "likely to warrant a forceful tightening in monetary policy," the BoE ​said.
• However, Scenarios A and B - which show oil ​prices falling to around $80 a barrel within a few ⁠months - would require a "less restrictive policy stance" with the rise in market-based interest rates since the start of the war helping to offset inflation pressure. Governor Andrew Bailey thought the most likely outcome was Scenario B, under which inflation peaks at a little over 3.5% at the end of 2026 before falling back to close to 2%.
• Nevertheless, the BoE expressed that some MPC members "might prefer to act early," while others could wait for more evidence of inflation getting ​stuck too high. While there was a risk of "material second-round effects" from the energy price shock - such as demands for higher pay or companies raising prices rather than absorbing higher costs - the jobs market was weakening, and a rise in financial market borrowing costs would limit inflation.

(Source: Reuters)

• Mexico's economy contracted 0.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from the 0.9% recorded in the previous quarter, preliminary data showed on Thursday, April 30, 2026. This marks the largest decline in a quarter since late 2024, and undershoots the 0.5% decline expected by economists in a Reuters poll. The weakness comes ahead of the June 2026 FIFA World Cup, which is expected to provide only a modest, temporary boost to economic activity.
• All sectors ​in Mexico's ⁠economy registered declines during the January-to-March period. The primary sector had the sharpest dip, down 1.4%. Secondary and tertiary activities, respectively covering manufacturing and services, declined 1.1% and 0.6% in ⁠a ​sequential basis. Compared with the same period a year earlier, ​growth in the first quarter was a modest 0.1%, below economists' expectations for 0.8%.
• According to Itau Chief Economist, Mario Mesquita, near‑term momentum remains subdued. ​However, a gradual recovery is expected, supported by firmer domestic demand and a ​modest boost from the 2026 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament.
• Itau estimates that the World Cup, which Mexico is co-hosting along with the United States (U.S.) ​and Canada, will add 0.1 percentage point to Mexico's annual Gross Domestic Product growth forecast at 1.1% ​for 2026, compared with growth in 2025 of 0.8%.
• Notwithstanding, analysts expect global trade tensions to weigh ‌on ⁠growth and to impact policy decisions by the Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico. Notably, the Central Bank's decision in March to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% was divided, with board ​members signalling the need for greater caution. Capital Economics analysts said there is a strong case for a rate cut of 25 basis points at Banxico's meeting next week.

(Source: Reuters)

• The World Bank, in a recent assessment of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), noted that Guyana’s rapidly expanding oil-driven economy must be carefully managed. While some Caribbean countries continue to struggle with high debt, oil-producing states like Guyana face a different but equally complex challenge - managing volatile revenues as government spending accelerates.
• The report noted that countries benefiting from oil production, like Guyana, must avoid procyclicality where spending rises sharply during periods of high revenues but becomes difficult to sustain when prices fall. Further, it noted that public debt trends remain uneven across the Caribbean and Central America.
• While several countries have reduced debt-to-GDP ratios through economic growth and fiscal consolidation, helping to stabilise public finances and bolster fiscal credibility, others continue to face significant sustainability challenges. The findings highlighted divergent economic trends across the region. The bank noted that among commodity exporters, Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname experienced sharp economic contractions during the pandemic due to falling international commodity prices, but have since rebounded alongside price recovery.
• In contrast, it highlighted Guyana for its exceptional performance, recording sustained and rapid Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth since 2020, driven by the scaling up of offshore oil production. The expansion has been accompanied by rising fiscal revenues, improved external balances, and a declining public debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the pace of growth also underscores the importance of strengthening public investment management, building institutional capacity, and ensuring that oil wealth translates into broad-based and inclusive development.
• Guyana has established mitigating mechanisms through its Natural Resource Fund, which governs the withdrawal and use of oil revenues based on a rules-based framework. This structure, supported by guidance from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is designed to smooth spending over time, reduce volatility, and limit excessive fiscal expansion during periods of high oil prices, thereby helping to contain the risks highlighted.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The House of Representatives passed the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA) Act. The NaRRA Act will serve as the central coordinating authority for post-hurricane reconstruction, designed to eliminate bureaucracy, fragmentation, and project delays.
• It will also function as a centre of technical excellence for project preparation and delivery, ensuring that the quality of national plans matches the scale of the country’s ambitions.
• Closing the debate on the Bill, Prime Minister, Dr. the Most Hon. Andrew Holness, addressed the Opposition’s suggestion to refer the legislation to a Joint Select Committee of Parliament. “We on this (Government) side, we have taken a decision that, as far as possible, we’re bringing all our Bills to a Joint Select Committee. That’s a decision that we took after the experience with the NIDS (National Identification System), subject, of course, to emergency situations or great urgency. I have heard the undertaking that there would be a commitment on the side of the Opposition to have the Joint Select Committee turned around very quickly,” Dr. Holness said.
• The Prime Minister reiterated that NaRRA’s functions will be clearly defined and that the entity will operate within a fixed timeframe. It will also be vested with special powers to fast-track development approvals and procurement, enabling the execution of resilient infrastructure projects at a scale and speed unprecedented in Jamaica. Following its passage in the Lower House, the legislation will now proceed to the Senate for approval.
• The House’s passage of the NaRRA Act is set to dramatically accelerate Jamaica’s post-hurricane rebuilding efforts. Operating as a centralised, temporary authority equipped with special powers to expedite procurement and development approvals, NaRRA is designed to cut through traditional bureaucratic red tape and project fragmentation

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)