• IDB Invest announced financing of up to US$30Mn for Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS), to expand access to digital services and support technology adoption across Latin America and the Caribbean.
• PBS operates in 24 countries, delivering integrated engineering and technology solutions across information technology, networking and communications, security systems, print and imaging, managed services and AI-enabled solutions. PBS Group Limited is publicly traded on the Jamaica Stock Exchange and the Barbados Stock Exchange.
• The facility consists of a secured loan and a committed revolving credit facility, providing flexible funding for working capital needs and growth investments in support of the company’s growth strategy.
• Darryl White, Managing Director for the Caribbean Region at IDB Invest, said the region has companies with the experience and ambition to scale, and that IDB Invest’s role is to provide the financing and partnership needed to expand their reach and strengthen operations.
• Group CEO Pedro M. Paris said the agreement reinforces PBS’s long-term strategy of investing in the capabilities, expertise and partnerships needed to meet the region’s evolving technology needs.
• The project is expected to help more companies and institutions participate in the digital economy, contributing to productivity gains, job creation and greater access to technology in Caribbean and Central American markets.
• As at July 28^th, PBS shares trade at US$0.85 on the JSE, meaning it is down 12.8% year-to-date. At this price, it trades at an associated P/E of 75.89x, which is above the 22.58x average for USD Shares.

(Sources: Productive Business Solutions Group Ltd. And NCBCM Research)

• Brazil’s annual inflation rate slowed to 4.52% in mid-July, from 4.80% a month earlier, moving closer to the central bank’s target range and paving the way for a fourth consecutive interest-rate cut next week. The reading came in below all estimates in a Reuters poll of economists, whose median forecast was 4.67%.
• Brazil’s central bank targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, placing the upper end of the range at 4.50%. The latest reading was therefore only marginally above the ceiling and strengthened expectations of another interest rate cut when its interest rate-setting committee, known as Copom, meets on August 4–5.
• Policymakers lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 14.25% last month, marking the third consecutive reduction. According to Capital Economics, the softer inflation reading is likely to provide room for a fourth consecutive 25-basis-point cut at next week’s meeting.
• Consumer prices rose only 0.06% in the month to mid-July, slowing sharply from 0.41% in the previous month. The increase was also well below the 0.20% rise expected by financial markets.
• Higher housing costs were the main source of upward pressure, following a jump in electricity bills. However, food and beverage prices declined 0.66%, helping to offset the increase, while underlying indicators such as services inflation and core measures continued to show signs of deceleration.
• According to Inter chief economist Rafaela Vitoria, the data reinforced evidence that price pressures were easing and that there was no reason for Copom to pause its rate-cutting cycle. However, central bank Governor Gabriel Galipolo has warned that unanchored inflation expectations and resilient labour-market and economic activity support keeping monetary policy restrictive for longer.
• The weaker-than-expected inflation reading strengthens the case for a fourth consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate cut. However, Copom is likely to maintain a gradual pace, as inflation remains slightly above the upper end of the target range and policymakers remain concerned about inflation expectations, resilient domestic activity and volatility in the external environment.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Guyana Development Bank Bill 2026 was passed in the National Assembly on Monday, July 27, 2026, paving the way for the establishment of a dedicated financial institution to expand access to financing for small businesses and entrepreneurs across Guyana.
• The legislation fulfils a key commitment in the People’s Progressive Party/Civic’s (PPP/C) 2025 manifesto. The new bank will provide micro-credit loans of up to G$3Mn at zero per cent interest, alongside mentorship and business-development support.
• According to Finance Minister Dr. Ashni Singh, the institution would improve access to financing for the country’s smallest and most vulnerable businesses. He added that it could unlock a new wave of entrepreneurial activity, strengthen broad-based economic growth and improve the livelihoods of small-business owners.
• The bank forms part of the government’s wider strategy to broaden financial inclusion and help more Guyanese participate in the country’s expanding economy. It is also expected to support community-based enterprises and create opportunities for sustainable economic development nationwide.
• The institution will support farmers, fisherfolk, agro-processors, small manufacturers, tourism operators, artisans, women-led enterprises and young entrepreneurs. Government officials said particular attention would be given to rural, hinterland and indigenous communities, where access to affordable financing has often been limited.
• Ministers said the bank would help remove barriers that have prevented many Guyanese from turning business ideas into viable enterprises. It is also expected to support economic diversification by enabling more people and communities to participate in the country’s development.
• By combining zero-interest financing with mentorship and business support, the Development Bank is expected to widen financial inclusion, stimulate entrepreneurship and extend economic opportunities to underserved businesses and communities.

(Source: Guyana Chronicle)

• Oman has presented Iran with a plan backed by Gulf states to manage the Strait of Hormuz, including collecting voluntary fees for using it, a Gulf source and a Western diplomat told Reuters on Tuesday, July 28, 2026. The Omani proposals are intended to serve as a basis to end the disruption to trade through the strait caused by the U.S.-Israeli war ‌on Iran.
• In June, Washington and Tehran reached an agreement on a framework for talks meant to take place by the end of August to resolve major issues such as Iran's nuclear programme. President Donald Trump, who abruptly called off a two-week U.S. bombing campaign over the weekend in his latest strategic U-turn, said there were "good talks" underway with Iran but threatened to restart strikes unless negotiations deliver. Iran denies seeking to resume talks with the United States. 
• Previously, Iran had said it wants to manage the strait alongside Oman, which controls the opposite shore, and charge service fees to ships that use it. However, Washington wants to ⁠return to the status quo prior to the war, when ships were able to pass freely with no payments, and says charging mandatory fees would be illegal.
• Under the Omani proposal, Iran would not exercise sole control and fees would be voluntary, the Gulf source and Western diplomat briefed on the matter told Reuters.
• The system would be analogous to one in place on Asia's Strait of Malacca, where Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore ask ships to pay voluntary contributions to fund navigation, environmental protection and search-and-rescue operations. The Western diplomat compared it to a voluntary carbon tax for flights, where anyone buying a plane ticket can choose to tick a box if they want to pay to offset their emissions.
• The end of the U.S. bombing campaign over the weekend sent oil prices tumbling by around 8% on Monday, and the fall continued on Tuesday. Brent crude futures were down around 1.6% at close to $87 a barrel by mid-morning on Tuesday.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 in July. This is the third consecutive month consumers grew less upbeat about current conditions in the United States (U.S.), the organisation said Tuesday, July 28, 2026.
• "Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021," Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said in a statement. "Consumer appraisals of current business conditions and, to a lesser extent, perceptions of the current labour market both softened."
• The survey period ran July 1–22, encompassing ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The Conference Board noted that mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased during the sample period, though recent reacceleration of fighting could lift such references in revised data. References to food and grocery prices increased in frequency.
• Consumers' assessment of current business and labour-market conditions fell by 3.6 points to 114.9. Meanwhile, the expectations index, based on short-term outlook for income, business and labour market conditions, remained unchanged at 74.7. The Conference Board said perceptions of employment conditions declined, with the labour market differential - the share of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" minus the share saying jobs are "hard to get" - ticking down to 3.1%. Economists watch this labour-market differential to gauge how tight labour conditions are for households.
• July’s reading came after consumer confidence ticked up modestly in June to 91.2 as falling oil prices offered some relief from inflation concerns, though that reading fell short of economist forecasts. Before June, confidence reversed course in May, when rising energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict weighed on Americans' assessment of current conditions.
• Looking ahead, consumers grew less optimistic about business conditions over the next six months, with net expectations for business conditions dipping to -3.3%. That said, expectations for labour market conditions improved slightly but remained in negative territory.

(Sources: Yahoo Finance & MorningStar)

• Jamaica’s bauxite and alumina export earnings are forecast at US$760.0Mn in 2026, a 24% rebound from US$612.3Mn in 2025. However, the projection remains roughly US$43.0Mn below the 2024 peak of US$803.4Mn, confirming a recovery phase rather than a return to prior strength.
• The 2025 decline of US$191.1Mn, or 23.8%, reflected a combination of weaker prices and lower volumes. Alumina earnings fell to US$546.3Mn as the average realised price dropped to US$385.50 per tonne and export volumes declined by about 9% to 1.42Mn tonnes. By contrast, crude bauxite earnings rose 18% to US$66.0Mn on a 16.7% price gain to US$38.20 per tonne, underscoring that the two products are priced through different mechanisms and serve different buyers.
• Total bauxite production fell 4.4% to about 5.62Mn tonnes in 2025. This drop was driven by Hurricane Melissa, operational setbacks at refineries, and prolonged facility repairs. Earnings of approximately US$512.52Mn had been accumulated through the first three quarters, broadly flat against the same period of 2024. This indicates that the full-year shortfall was concentrated in H2 and that the sector entered 2026 already trending weaker.
• Hurricane Melissa cut Q1 2026 output sharply. Alumina production fell 30.3% year-on-year to 267,060 tonnes, while crude bauxite production declined 26.4% to 415,143 tonnes. These were among the steepest single-quarter contractions in Jamaica’s recent mining history.
• Q1 2026 exports held up somewhat better, supported by inventory drawdowns and pre-existing shipment commitments. Alumina exports declined about 10.7% to 319,600 tonnes from 358,070 tonnes, while crude bauxite exports fell about 29.7% to 384,276 tonnes.
• Repair and rehabilitation work at mining and processing facilities is expected to continue throughout 2026. Bauxite production is targeted at approximately 6.4Mn tonnes for the full year, a 14% increase on 2025. Given the Q1 deficit already recorded, most of that recovery would need to materialise in H2.
• The US$760.0Mn projection is a government forecast based on several assumptions. These include hurricane-damaged infrastructure returning to capacity on schedule, alumina prices recovering from cyclically weak 2025 levels, export volumes rebounding toward 2024 levels, and no further weather, shipping, or geopolitical disruptions. If prices rise 10% to 15% above the 2025 average and output reaches 6.4Mn tonnes, the target is achievable. However, the margin for execution error across Q2 to Q4 is narrow.
• Upside could come from tighter global alumina supply, faster repair completion, Asian smelters diversifying procurement, and a recovery in London Metal Exchange aluminium prices. Downside risks include repair timelines slipping deeper into H2, continued alumina price softness in an oversupplied market, further Atlantic hurricane season events, and adverse currency or freight cost movements.
• Alumina is priced mainly through bilateral contracts set as a percentage of the prevailing LME aluminium price, historically around 12% to 20%. A compression of that ratio squeezes margins without any change in volumes. Conversely, earnings can recover on pricing normalisation alone, even without higher output.
• Jamaica competes on quality rather than scale against Guinea, Australia, and Brazil, which dominate world bauxite trade. Its gibbsite-type ore requires less refining energy than boehmite-dominant ores, while its low reactive silica content reduces caustic soda consumption in Bayer process refining. Proximity to refiners in the eastern US and parts of Europe also lowers shipping costs.

(Source: Discovery Alert & Jamaica Bauxite Institute)

• Guyana is among 60 trading partners hit with a new 12.5% US tariff after the Trump administration imposed fresh duties on countries it says have failed to enforce bans on goods produced with forced labour adequately. The measures took effect as the temporary 10% global tariff expired on Friday, July 24, 2026.
• The development comes after Guyana cut ties with Cuba under a decades-old medical programme following Washington’s concerns about forced labour. Guyanese exports were nevertheless placed in the higher tariff category under the new action.
• The duties were imposed under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974, following the US Supreme Court’s decision in February to strike down Trump’s previous “reciprocal” tariffs of 10% to 50%. Section 301 has survived previous court challenges and may provide the administration with a more durable legal basis for maintaining the tariffs.
• Guyana was among 38 countries assigned the higher 12.5% rate. Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and several other economies received the lower 10% rate. Meanwhile, the European Union and several Asian economies were assigned rates that totalled 10% or 12.5% when combined with existing tariffs.
• The measures cover countries accounting for approximately 99.4% of US imports, although numerous products are exempt. These include oil and gas, fertiliser, certain food products, aircraft and parts, critical minerals and goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, such as autos, steel, aluminium and copper.
• Several trading partners protested the action, describing the forced-labour justification as unfounded or unjustified. However, US officials argued that the country enforces stronger restrictions on forced-labour imports than its trading partners. They also said the tariffs respond to bipartisan calls to eliminate forced labour from global supply chains.
• The exemption for oil and gas should limit the direct impact on Guyana’s dominant petroleum exports. However, non-oil exports to the United States will face the higher 12.5% duty.

(Source: Kaieteur News)

• The Panama Canal expects revenue to exceed its US$5.2Bn forecast for fiscal 2026. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove more vessels through the waterway, while higher auction payments from ships seeking to skip the queue also supported revenue.

• Liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers flocked to the canal as buyers in Japan, China and South Korea turned to US suppliers to replace Middle Eastern producers affected by the war in Iran, including Qatar. Traffic from oil tankers carrying US crude to Asia also increased.
• At the peak of the Hormuz closure, the canal handled approximately 40 to 41 ships per day, compared with the normal 34 to 35 vessels. In April, one ship paid an additional US$4Mn to move to the front of the queue as waiting times increased for vessels without bookings.
• Traffic has since eased to approximately 36 to 38 vessels per day. However, bookings for June and July were strong, and the canal continues to handle an average of one LNG tanker per day even after an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Incoming administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta will take control of the canal in September and serve until 2033. She will oversee an approximately US$8.5Bn investment programme, including a new dam and reservoir, two port terminals and an LPG pipeline.
• The Hormuz closure reinforced the Panama Canal’s importance as a route for US energy exports to Asia, as buyers sought alternatives to affected Middle Eastern suppliers. Although daily transits have eased from their peak, strong bookings for June and July and the continued passage of LNG tankers are providing further support to revenue.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• A period of relative calm over the weekend reinforced BMI’s current base case of Messy Negotiations for the United States (U.S.)-Iran conflict, although the underlying factors that prompted it to increase the probability of escalation from 25% to 35% remain in place. After two weeks of U.S. bombing, Iranian retaliation against Gulf countries, and renewed disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Washington and Tehran have entered a de facto ceasefire¹ since July 24. The White House has messaged that the U.S. has halted its bombing campaign for the time being, and Iran has communicated that it will pause retaliatory strikes so long as the halt in U.S. bombing holds.
• BMI has long highlighted political, economic and operational factors that will constrain the U.S.’s appetite for a sustained re-escalation. The U.S. has attributed the pause to the effectiveness of its campaign in stopping Iranian disruption of shipping, but the agency suspects a more important factor is concern over both defensive and offensive weapons shortages. Moreover, claims that Iran's ability to disrupt shipping has been significantly degraded are difficult to assess given the low level of traffic through the Strait; recent shipping data suggests 29 vessels transited Hormuz between 24-26 July, many of them Iranian-linked.
• One important signal to monitor in the coming days is whether greater clarity emerges on the future of Hormuz. For the agency to be more confident that events are moving through its ‘Messy Negotiations’ scenario and towards a new U.S.-Iran understanding, one of two outcomes would be needed: either a) the U.S. accepts some form of Iranian oversight over the southern Hormuz route, with or without a regional consortium, or b) Iran concedes a southern transit corridor that does not require its coordination. According to BMI, outcome (A) appears more likely.
• The Strait remains Iran’s most important source of leverage over both the U.S. and its Gulf neighbours, and BMI suspects Tehran will seek some degree of control over shipping throughout any future nuclear negotiations. However, the regime will be reluctant to move too quickly, preferring to prolong its unilateral leverage over Hormuz to maximise concessions from Washington. That said, it is possible that Iran could accept a version of (B), at least initially, if it judges that lingering security risks would still deter use of the southern corridor and channel most traffic through routes it prefers.
• From the U.S. perspective, reopening Hormuz by force would be costly. Iran can disrupt shipping relatively cheaply with drones, while sustaining military operations at the intensity seen over the past two weeks would continue to deplete U.S. stockpiles without necessarily bringing Washington closer to its preferred outcome. Against this backdrop, wider Gulf participation in a future Hormuz framework, facilitated by Oman, could offer Trump a face-saving compromise while still meeting Iran’s criteria for some degree of oversight.
• That being said, the risk of a shift to an escalatory scenario remains higher than it was earlier in July. Washington’s recent re-deployment of personnel and equipment to the region gives President Trump the ability to escalate at short notice. If reports of degraded US air defences are accurate, even relatively limited Iranian strikes could result in US casualties, increasing pressure for an escalatory response. There is also an ongoing risk that either side misjudges the other’s red lines, triggering a broader escalation.

________________________

¹A de facto ceasefire is an unofficial halt to fighting that happens in practice without a formal peace treaty or written agreement.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• United States (U.S.) President Donald Trump's push to end Washington's reliance on Chinese critical minerals by January is colliding with a stark reality: American miners and processors aren't ready. Trump has made U.S. mining and processing of critical minerals a national security priority since returning to office, pouring tens of billions of dollars into nearly 150 minerals companies to loosen China's grip on supply chains for weapons and other strategic products.
• The defence industry and other manufacturers are now just over five months away from a January 1, 2027, deadline under federal regulations to ‌stop purchasing rare earths, magnets, tungsten, molybdenum and tantalum from China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. Washington has been trying to limit such imports for years but has routinely granted companies waivers because the U.S. supply can't meet the demand.
• Trump railed against such waivers in a May 10 post on his Truth Social platform, saying: "ALL FEDERAL AGENCIES MUST BUY AMERICAN — NO EXCUSES!" Last Monday, July 20, 2026, he signed an executive order making it even harder for defence contractors to obtain waivers. But the reality is that U.S. minerals companies are nowhere close to meeting domestic needs, according to interviews with 16 industry executives, investors, analysts and policymakers.
• In 2025, U.S. demand for the most-common type of rare earth magnet, for example, was roughly 48,000 metric tons while domestic sources supplied 300 metric tons, according to data from the Arthur D. Little consultancy. U.S. firms are on track to have the capacity to produce 5,000 metric tons by year-end.
• Rare earths, which are among the 60 minerals considered critical by Washington, must be processed before they are turned into magnets used to make weapons, automobiles, computers and other products. U.S. firms haven't produced tungsten since 2015 and ⁠tantalum since 1959. Guardian Metal Resources is working to open a U.S. tungsten mine by 2028, while Lion Rock Resources is developing a tantalum mine in South Dakota, with no timeline for opening.
• Chris Berry, a minerals industry analyst and consultant, said the U.S. industry has little chance of producing enough minerals to end waivers by January. "It's going to take many more years to get the needed infrastructure in the ground to compete," said Berry. The United States has reserves of most critical minerals; what it lacks is the capacity to mine and process many of them.
• China grew to dominate the minerals-refining industry in the late 20th century and controls more than 80% of the sector today. The International Energy Agency warned this month that $6.5Tn of global manufacturing is at risk if Beijing imposes export restrictions on rare earths, as it has periodically in recent years.
• Asked for comment, the White House referred to Trump's executive order, which says waivers can only be issued if a contractor shows an "exhaustive effort" to avoid Chinese material and has a timeline for weaning itself off such supply. The Pentagon did not respond to requests for comment.

(Sources: Reuters)