• On Tuesday, April 21, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would extend the ceasefire with Iran hours before it was set to expire, while maintaining a blockade over ships coming to and from Iran. The extension was intended to allow both sides to continue peace talks until Iran submits a new proposal and discussions are concluded.
• Despite the ceasefire extension, tensions have escalated materially, with Iranian gunboats firing on and seizing multiple vessels on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, including a cargo ship and a container ship, in the Strait of Hormuz, tightening control over the strategic waterway even as ceasefire conditions remain in place.
• This marks the first seizure of ships since the war began at the end of February 2026 and the latest in a series of maritime incidents, highlighting a clear deterioration in security along a critical global trade route. Consequently, traffic through Hormuz, which normally carries around one-fifth of global crude flows, has slowed to a near halt, while U.S. enforcement actions, including vessel interceptions, continue to disrupt shipping activity and constrain supply.
• Oil markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude rising above $100 per barrel, as investors priced in renewed supply risks amid the escalation and lack of diplomatic progress.
• Meanwhile, Iran has signalled it will not reopen the strait while the blockade remains and may attempt to break it by force, while U.S. officials have indicated restrictions will stay in place until negotiations are concluded, reinforcing the risk of further confrontation.
• Overall, the combination of a fragile, largely tactical ceasefire and ongoing maritime disruptions suggests limited prospects for near-term de-escalation, with restricted flows through Hormuz expected to keep oil markets tight and prices supported even beyond any eventual resolution.

(Sources: Reuters, Yahoo Finance & Bloomberg)

• President Trump said the U.S. is considering offering financial support to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), an oil-rich ally dealing with economic fallout from the war with Iran. This highlights growing concerns that the conflict is beginning to strain even well-capitalised economies in the region.
• The war has damaged oil and gas infrastructure across the Middle East, disrupting economies that rely on the Strait of Hormuz to transport crude globally. Given that the Strait carries a significant share of global oil supply, these disruptions pose risks to energy security and global supply chains.
• The fact that the UAE has inquired about assistance is notable given its wealth, underscoring the severity and cascading effects of the conflict across oil-dependent economies. This suggests that the economic impact is broad-based and not limited to weaker regional players.
• U.S. officials indicated that any support would aim to deter further attacks and stabilise energy markets, although it remains unclear whether assistance will ultimately be required. The potential use of tools such as the Exchange Stabilization Fund signals a willingness to intervene to contain financial and market instability.
• Some economists suggest the request may be more of a political signal than a financial necessity, as the UAE still maintains strong reserves and a currency peg to the U.S. dollar. This points to the geopolitical dimension of the request, including efforts to reinforce strategic alliances.
• The developments underscore the broader global economic impact of the war, with energy disruptions spreading across regions and increasing pressure on oil-dependent economies. Elevated energy prices and supply uncertainty could feed into higher inflation, tighter financial conditions, and slower global growth, particularly for import-dependent emerging markets.

(Source: NY Times)

• The Jamaica Tourist Board (JTB) has released its first set of tourism data for 2026, confirming a sharp contraction in visitor arrivals in the aftermath of Category 5 Hurricane Melissa.
• Stopover arrivals declined steeply at the start of the year, falling 35.5% in January and 27.1% in February relative to the previous corresponding months in 2025. This resulted in a 31.4% year-to-date (YTD) contraction, with total visitors dropping to 321,395 compared with 468,235 in the same period of 2025, highlighting the severity of the post-disaster demand shock.
• The downturn was broad-based across Jamaica’s main source markets, led by a 37.5% decline in United States (U.S.) arrivals, alongside declines from Canada (-29.6%) and Europe (-14.6%). In contrast, smaller but resilient gains from Latin America (+5.7%) and Asia (+6.9%) offered only marginal support, highlighting early signs of diversification despite the broader downturn.
• Despite reduced volumes, the structure of the market share remains largely unchanged, with the U.S. accounting for 60.5% of stopover visitors, followed by Canada (19.0%) and the United Kingdom (9.1%). This mix reinforces Jamaica’s continued reliance on North American travel demand to anchor the recovery and the tourism industry.
• Cruise travel also declined 5.9% YTD January-February to 161,157 arrivals, reflecting an 8.9% and 2.7% decline in January and February, respectively. Encouragingly, all of Jamaica’s cruise ports and airports are now operational, with the island’s tourism hubs fully functioning, including Montego Bay, Ocho Rios, and Kingston, signalling improving supply-side conditions.
• The latest data came as no surprise given that the tourism shock had already contributed to a 7.1% contraction in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Q4 2025), according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica. Within the Services Industry, Accommodation and Food Services plunged 31.0%, as hotel closures in the western parishes coincided with a 43.0% decline in foreign arrivals to the island, while Transport and Storage declined by 7.5%, reflecting reduced airport activity and lower tourism-related travel.
• Furthermore, according to Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett, Jamaica recorded over one million tourist arrivals in Q1 2026^[1]. This represented a decline of roughly 18.0% year-over-year; however, the country generated approximately $956Mn in tourism receipts, suggesting some resilience in visitor spending despite lower volumes.
• That said, Jamaica Carnival 2026 is anticipated to contribute positively to the tourism numbers for April, providing a much needed tailwind to the otherwise subdued YTD performance. Of note, the 2025 staging of the event generated a J$7.7Bn in direct expenditure, while producing an overall J$165.7Bn boost to the local economy.
• Looking ahead, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) projects a gradual recovery in 2026, with GDP growth expected in the 1.0%–3.0% range for fiscal year 2026/27 as reconstruction progresses and tourism capacity is restored. However, the outlook remains subject to downside risks, including elevated global commodity prices and the pace of rebuilding in key resort areas, which will ultimately impact how quickly visitor flows normalise.

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¹This announcement was made by the Minster at the diaspora reception held at the Embassy of Jamaica in Washington, D.C. on April 8, during which he credited the diaspora as among the country’s most influential ambassadors and unveiling a landmark tourism milestone.

(Sources: The Jamaica Tourism Board, WIC News, Bank of Jamaica, STATIN)

• Farmers across several parishes are set to benefit from a new round of fertiliser and planting material support, as the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) strengthens recovery efforts in partnership with the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). The initiative forms part of a broader push to restore agricultural production post-Hurricane Melissa, with a clear focus on helping farmers return to the fields and restore output.
• Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining, Floyd Green, said the effort reflects ongoing work to engage farmers across the island and provide the support needed to get production back on track. The latest phase of assistance was highlighted during a handover ceremony at the Trelawny branch of the Rural Agricultural Development Authority (RADA) in Hague.
• Under the initiative, approximately 600 bags of fertiliser are being distributed, alongside seeds for crops such as cabbage, carrot, cucumber, sweet pepper, onion, tomato, watermelon and corn. The inputs are intended to fast-track replanting while supporting both short-term recovery and sustained food production.
• The FAO’s representative for Jamaica, the Bahamas and Belize, Ana Touza, explained that the fertiliser will assist farmers across six parishes as they work to restore their fields and livelihoods. She also pointed to the central role of RADA in ensuring the efficient distribution of supplies to affected communities.
• The intervention is part of a wider, coordinated programme that combines immediate assistance with longer-term resilience planning for the agricultural sector. With partnerships playing a key role in expanding the reach of support, the recovery effort is expected to strengthen output and stability. The rebound in agriculture has also contributed to inflation declining faster than expected since the start of 2026.
• The distribution of fertiliser also comes at a critical time for local farmers, as energy prices have faced upward pressure due to the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, which has contributed to higher fertiliser prices. Of note, over the past three years (2023-2025), the Gulf countries were the single biggest regional exporter of urea and ammonia (both nitrogen-based), and the second largest regional exporter of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP) fertilisers.
• Therefore, any sustained reduction in LNG production and/or shipments from the Gulf (Qatar supplies around 10% of globally traded natural gas) will have significant implications for nitrogen fertiliser production worldwide1. As such, this support will help to cushion Jamaican farmers from external shocks and facilitate continued production despite volatile international conditions.

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¹Natural gas is both a key feedstock and the primary energy source for producing ammonia, the building block for all nitrogen fertilisers. Jamaica primarily imports mineral or chemical fertilisers, including nitrogenous, potassic, and compound fertilisers, with total imports valued at US$12.45Mn in 2023, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade.

(Sources: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected mixed economic performance across the Caribbean Community (Caricom) over the next two years, with growth expected to range widely between tourism-dependent states and commodity exporters. Nigel Chalk, Director of the IMF's Western Hemisphere Department, said projections span from 3.1% among tourism-dependent countries to 19.1% among commodity exporters.
• He also noted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will have "unambiguously negative economic impacts for both economic activity and the population." Tourism-driven economies are likely to be among the hardest hit due to high debt levels and heavy reliance on imported energy, with net energy imports averaging around 6.0% of GDP.
• According to IMF projections, the Caribbean region as a whole is expected to record average growth of 5.7% in 2026 and 8.6% in 2027. Tourism-dependent Caribbean economies are forecast to grow by 0.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, while non-tourism-dependent economies are expected to perform more strongly at 7.9% and 11.3% over the same period. Among tourism-dependent states, Jamaica is projected to contract by 1.2% this year before growing 3.1% in 2027. Commodity-exporting economies are expected to outperform, with Guyana at 16.2% rising to 19.7%, Suriname at 3.9% increasing to 4.4% and Trinidad and Tobago at 0.8% rising to 3.0%.
• Chalk said the Western Hemisphere began 2026 on relatively stable footing, with growth near potential in many countries and inflation close to targets. However, the Middle East conflict has introduced fresh risks through energy price shocks, capital flow shifts and heightened investor uncertainty. "Countries are being affected by shifts in global financial conditions and capital flows, by swings in investor risk aversion, and by volatile commodity prices," he said. Still, oil-producing countries including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States and Venezuela may benefit from higher energy prices, which could strengthen trade balances and fiscal positions, though vulnerable populations even in those countries would still face rising food and fuel costs.
• Inflation pressures is projected be broad-based across the region, affecting fuel, transport, food and other essential goods. "Inflation will be higher for all," Chalk said, adding that the situation will increase hardship for lower-income households. He described the current environment as a renewed and unpredictable challenge for a region still recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Chalk stressed the importance of strong macroeconomic frameworks, saying countries with credible fiscal policies, low debt and anchored inflation expectations are better positioned to manage shocks. He encouraged governments with fiscal space to use it carefully, while advising energy exporters with limited reserves or high debt to save windfall gains.
• It was also noted that central banks across the region will once again be required to prioritise price stability, noting that some institutions will face greater difficulty due to weaker monetary frameworks. He also urged governments to resist political pressure to delay necessary adjustments to food and fuel prices, and to protect social safety nets where possible.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The return of Venezuelan crude to international markets could support efforts to restart refinery operations in Trinidad and Tobago, the Energy Chamber of Trinidad and Tobago said in a statement on April 20, pointing to renewed shipments into the United States as a key signal.
• The Chamber highlighted a recent cargo delivery reported by the BBC, noting the arrival of the tanker Minerva Gloria near Chevron Pascagoula refinery, carrying 400,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude.
• "The shipment points to Venezuelan oil returning to major U.S. refining systems… For Trinidad and Tobago, the significance of this development is that it is a potential option to support the country's refining ambitions," the Chamber said.
• On April 1, Reuters reported that Venezuela's monthly oil exports surpassed one million barrels per day in March 2026, the highest level since September 2025.
• The Energy Chamber said production numbers revive the prospect of Venezuelan crude as a potential refinery feedstock, noting that while production figures "do not point to a full sector recovery," they indicate parts of Venezuela's oil industry are active enough again to influence refiners, traders, and neighbouring markets.
• "That matters as Trinidad considers restarting the Guaracara refinery, which will depend on a mix of domestic and imported crude, with Venezuelan barrels among the options that can potentially be considered," the Chamber added.
• According to the Energy Chamber, Trinidad and Tobago once relied heavily on Venezuelan crude to supply its refinery operations, with imports in 2000 reaching more than 18 million barrels. These volumes helped sustain operations at the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery, which depended on foreign crude as domestic production declined.
• However, that supply relationship weakened over time and eventually came to a halt in 2009, forcing Trinidad to source crude from other regions. Therefore, a renewed or revitalised Venezuelan oil sector could once again become a potential supplier for Trinidad and Tobago if refinery operations are restarted.

(Source: OIL Now)

• This week brings with it the April 22, 2026, deadline marking the end of the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The intermittent closures of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran and U.S. blockades on Iranian ports reflect highly volatile, on-again/off-again negotiations for a potential peace deal.
• One possible outcome is that no deal is reached by midweek, but the ceasefire is extended, allowing negotiations to continue. The U.S. would maintain its blockade, reinforcing its military presence in the region, and sustaining sanctions pressure, while potentially facilitating the reopening of Hormuz to alleviate further spikes in global energy prices.
• A more adverse scenario is a full resumption of the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict, involving continued closure of key shipping routes such as Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, attacks on regional energy infrastructure, and broader military escalation, which would significantly disrupt global oil and gas supply chains. In such a scenario, oil prices could rise to around $200 per barrel, as prolonged disruption to Hormuz would require prices to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand, with some countries, particularly in Asia, already facing physical shortages.
• Sustained high oil prices would have severe economic and political implications, including sharply higher gasoline prices, reduced consumer spending, and increased recession risks, particularly in the U.S., where energy price spikes could weigh on economic stability and electoral dynamics.
• Despite these risks, both U.S. and E.U. sources suggest a deal remains the most likely outcome, with progress reported on key nuclear issues, although differences remain on timelines, enforcement, and missile capabilities.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• The UK is moving to weaken the link between electricity costs and volatile gas prices, a structure that has kept power prices elevated, weighed on households, and reduced industrial competitiveness.
• Britain has among the highest electricity prices globally due to its energy market structure, where gas sets the price for most power generation. As a result, electricity costs remain closely tied to volatile gas prices, contributing to persistently high energy bills that have been further exacerbated by geopolitical shocks such as the Russia–Ukraine war and the Iran conflict in 2026.
• The government plans to offer voluntary long-term fixed contracts to older renewable energy generators, particularly wind and solar, so they are no longer paid prices linked to gas, helping reduce exposure to gas-driven price volatility.
• The reform is expected to cover around one-third of Britain’s power supply, as part of broader efforts to stabilise electricity prices and shield consumers from external energy shocks. The government will also increase the Electricity Generator Levy from 45% to 55%, aiming to capture excess profits and incentivise generators to shift to fixed-price contracts.
• While the reforms aim to lower bills and support economic growth, analysts note the impact may be limited, with gas still expected to set prices around 50% of the time by 2030, and business groups warning that policy uncertainty could weigh on investor confidence.
• In parallel, the government is looking to accelerate renewable energy deployment, including expanding projects on public land and streamlining planning and grid connections, as part of a broader push to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and improve energy security. The reforms signal a gradual shift toward decoupling electricity pricing from gas, but the limited scope suggests the UK will remain partly exposed to fossil fuel volatility in the medium term.

(Source: Reuters)

• Despite lower prices for some agricultural produce as the sector continues to rebound, consumer prices rose in March, reflecting the impact of higher global energy prices on electricity rates and petrol prices paid by local consumers. The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI)in March 2026 increased by 0.3%, according to the latest data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• This was mainly influenced by a 2.3% rise in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. Higher electricity rates led to a 5.1% increase in the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, while the ‘Transport’ division recorded a 0.6% increase, mainly due to higher petrol prices. The higher petrol prices stem from the War on Iran, which has caused significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices.
• The overall increase in the CPI was, however, tempered by a 0.6% decline in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. This fall primarily resulted from a 4.9% decline in the index for the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’ due to lower prices for some agricultural produce, such as tomato, carrot, cabbage, Irish potato and pumpkin.
• Meanwhile, the point-to-point inflation rate as at March 2026 was 4.3%, which is higher than the 3.9% seen for February 2026.
• Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in March, the global energy market outlook has shifted abruptly, with sharp rises in oil and natural gas prices, the key inputs in local electricity and petrol production. Expectations of surplus conditions are now replaced by what is widely regarded as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history.
• Under existing fuel pricing mechanisms, local weekly pricing adjustments are capped at $4.50, which means only a fraction of the increase in petrol prices was passed on to consumers initially. However, the Minister of Energy, Transport and Telecommunications, Daryl Vaz, has announced the implementation of a tiered pricing mechanism designed to align domestic fuel prices more closely with global movements. This new system is expected to allow for larger upward adjustments.
• Notably, more than 80 energy facilities have been attacked since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran. With more than a third of those severely damaged, it could take as long as two years to repair facilities and restore oil and gas production to pre-war levels.
• As a result, fuel prices at the pump are likely to rise and stay elevated, placing upward pressure on the Transport division as well as the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ category, which could in turn contribute to further increases in the CPI in the near term.

(Source: STATIN, NCBCM research & CNBC)

• Latin America’s (LATAM) relative distance from the US-Iran conflict, combined with the region’s commodity-export orientation and the fact that elevated global uncertainty has kept overnight rates higher than expected, has underpinned regional foreign exchange (FX) performance in the first half of 2026 (H1 2026).
• Much of this strength was already priced in before the escalation, suggesting the current performance reflects resilience rather than further upside. That said, the picture beneath the surface is uneven. Net oil exporters like Brazil have outperformed, benefitting from stronger commodity revenues, while net importers like Chile have absorbed the shock more painfully through higher fuel costs, imported inflation and episodic bouts of dollar strength on risk-off flows.
• Even where non-energy export prices have held up, as with Chilean copper, the oil import bill has risen faster and by more than enough to offset the gains. A broader geopolitical realignment and increased international attention on the Western Hemisphere have provided additional support for sentiment across the region.
• The conflict has also complicated the region’s monetary policy trajectory. The oil-driven pass-through inflation has narrowed the window for rate cuts just as many central banks were positioning to ease, forcing policymakers to trade off growth support against renewed price pressures. The ceasefire has provided relief for regional FX, but the stop-start nature of diplomacy and Fitch’s view of continued supply disruptions mean that energy-driven volatility is likely to remain the key swing factor for regional currency performance in the near term.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)