• The Bank of Canada (BOC) kept its ​key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, April 29, 2026, as expected and expressed that any changes in the rate could be small if its projections ‌for the economy held true.
• However, Governor Tiff Macklem, citing uncertainty caused by the Middle East war and U.S. tariffs, said if oil prices stayed high and began pushing up inflation, it might have to respond with consecutive rate hikes. Macklem's comments marked the first time in recent years that he has been so specific about the path of interest rates. "If things ​evolve broadly in line with the outlook we have presented, and in particular, oil prices come down broadly in line with the futures ​curve, something close to the policy rate that we have today is probably about right," he said.
• The BOC noted that the ⁠overall effect of the war on Canada will be modest. High oil prices are set to benefit Canada by increasing export revenues, though squeezing businesses and consumers.
• Near-term inflation expectations have risen due to higher energy prices and elevated food prices, but long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. Inflation in ​April is expected to shoot up to about 3% from 2.4% in March, while averaging around 2.3% for this year. There is a risk that ​inflation expectations are not as well ⁠anchored as they were before COVID, Macklem said, noting public unhappiness when inflation spiked to 8.1% during the pandemic. Nevertheless, inflation is expected to fall back down to the ​2% target by early 2027.
• The BOC also lifted its 2026 growth forecast ​to 1.2% from the 1.1% it had predicted in January. However, economists and analysts are divided on the impact of higher crude oil prices on Canada, a net exporter. 
• Wednesday marked ​the central bank's first set of projections since the Iran war began on February 28, driving up crude and gasoline prices. Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins, said ‌the BoC ⁠appears comfortable leaving rates unchanged for the rest of the year, unless oil prices remain high. Once the economy recovers, central bankers will raise the policy rate gradually to 2.75%, he said, predicting that would not be till 2027.

(Source: Reuters)

• LASCO Financial Services Limited (LASF) has announced the appointment of Mrs Sharlene Williams as the company's new Managing Director, which took effect on January 1, 2026.
• In another executive change, Caribbean Assurance Brokers Limited (CARBROKERS) advised of the resignation of its Senior Manager of Employee Benefits, Ms. Michelle Harris, effective April 17, 2026. The company noted that the responsibilities of the Employee Benefits role continue to be managed seamlessly within the existing management structure while arrangements for the appointment of a successor are being finalised.
• Turning to shareholder returns, Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) and Seprod Limited declared interim ordinary dividends.
• SVL declared that a dividend of 22.89 cents per stock unit will be payable on Thursday, July 2, 2026, to all shareholders on record as of Thursday, May 7, 2026. The increase, which is 31.6% higher than the 17.39 cents paid around the same time last year, should contribute to a dividend yield of 5.6% using SVL’s $16.08 share price as of April 28, 2026, and dividends declared over the last 12 months. This, coupled with news of a 35.9% increase in Q1 earnings, could support increased demand for SVL shares.
• Meanwhile, Seprod declared a dividend payment of 605 cents per share to shareholders on record as at May 15, 2026. The payment, which will be on June 5, 2026, is on par with the amount paid at the same time last year. This declaration, plus other dividends declared over the last 12 months, contributes to a 2.3% dividend yield at its current price of $78.30.
• Year to date, SVL (-6.9%), Seprod (-6.7%) and LASF (-6.7%) saw their share prices decline, while CARBROKERS appreciated by 7.5%. LASF and CARBROKERS traded at P/Bs of 0.89x and 0.95x, respectively, which is above the 0.86x financial sector peer average. Meanwhile, SVL traded at a P/E of 20.82x, which is below the 25.00x media and entertainment peer average. Lastly, Seprod trades at a P/E of 16.04x, which is below the manufacturing and distribution sector average of 18.04x. All else equal, a multiple below peer averages suggests that the stock is trading at a discount, but it would depend on future growth expectations or business risk.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Following an official tour of Jamaica’s South Coast, Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, noted that stakeholders collaborated urgently to restore operations, protect local livelihoods, and reopen the region following Hurricane Melissa. Restoration efforts were swift, allowing destinations like Treasure Beach, YS Falls, and the Black River Safari to reopen alongside planned enhancements to the local infrastructure.
• The Ministry indicated that, concurrent with the rebuilding, further work will be done to upgrade and reimagine the area's overall tourism offerings.
• Specific sites such as the Appleton Estate, Pelican Bar, Lashings, and Jakes Hotel are operating following safety and infrastructure checks, supported by coordination between the Jamaica Tourist Board and local stakeholders.
• The resumption of operations in the South Coast supports Jamaica’s broader tourism diversification strategy and provides direct financial relief to local communities that were hit by Hurricane Melissa.
• The Director of Tourism, Donovan White, confirmed to global partners that the region's recovery demonstrates a commitment to sustainability and that the area is fully open for business. Travelers are now able to access the South Coast as well as other resort areas across the island, including Kingston, Montego Bay, and Negril.

(Source: Jamaica Tourist Board)

• Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, met on Monday, April 27, 2026, with Barbados’ Prime Minister Mia Mottley and invited her administration to invest in energy production in the South American country. Rodríguez's visit to Barbados marks her second official visit to a Caribbean island in recent weeks after visiting Grenada on April 9, 2026.
• Venezuela invited Barbados to invest in oil and gas exploration and to expand hydrocarbon production, with Rodríguez noting that the partnership could help provide energy security for Barbados.
• According to Mottley, Barbados currently faces a “very difficult time” for energy security, and as such, she welcomed the investment opportunity. “We want our cooperation to extend also beyond fossil fuels to … renewable energy,” Mottley said. Their meeting also included discussions on partnering in food production, boosting tourism, and improving trade.
• This initiative comes against a broader regional backdrop, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the ongoing Middle East conflict is deepening economic vulnerabilities across the Caribbean, particularly for energy-importing economies, with rising oil prices expected to increase fuel, transport, and food costs.
• While some commodity-exporting countries may benefit, most Caribbean economies face worsening external balances and tighter fiscal space, contributing to a more uneven regional outlook. As a result, energy security is becoming a central policy priority across the region, reinforcing the importance of partnerships such as the Venezuela–Barbados initiative.

(Sources: AP News & IMF)

• The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to grow by 2.2% on average in 2026, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
• This represents a slight downward revision from the 2.3% estimated in December 2025, reflecting a more complex external environment characterised by greater geopolitical tensions, restrictive financial conditions and the resurgence of inflationary pressures.
• According to the United Nations regional economic commission, this reduced dynamism is expected to be widespread. Growth is seen decelerating in 24 of the region’s 33 countries, and accelerating in just 7, with the region having had four straight years of growth rates around 2.3%, revealing a pattern of low capacity for growth.
• The deterioration in the external scenario is driven by increased geopolitical tensions and the war in the Middle East, with the average price of oil in the first three weeks of April 74% higher than in December 2025. As a result, this has generated global inflationary pressures, raised production and transportation costs, and contributed to higher food prices and weaker international trade activity
• At the regional level, growth is constrained mainly by less dynamic private consumption. Investment shows signs of recovering but continues to be moderate in the majority of countries. Employment growth is estimated at around 1.1% in 2026, versus 1.5% in 2025, and inflation is topping 3% in 2026 compared with 2.4% in 2025.
• Subregional performance remains uneven. South America is seen growing by 2.4%, Central America by 2.2%, and the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean by 5.6% - driven largely by high growth in Guyana.
• Relevant risks remain, including the continuation of restrictive financial conditions, inflationary pressures from energy and food prices, volatility in international markets, vulnerability to external shocks, and weak domestic demand. Furthermore, structural challenges such as low trend growth and high exposure to external shocks continue to weigh on the region’s economic performance.

(Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean)

UAE to Leave OPEC in May as Iran War Reshapes Oil Market

• The United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its wider alliance, dealing a blow to the group and its leader, Saudi Arabia. It comes at a time when the global oil industry grapples with the massive supply disruption caused by the Iran war. The UAE’s exit on May 1, 2026, after six decades of membership¹, is a significant loss for the group (see Figure 1), which has spent years balancing global oil markets and defending prices by managing crude supplies.
• The UAE said its decision would help it meet growing global energy demand in the long term after recent investments to boost its production capacity. The move is also the latest indication of how the war in Iran will reshape global energy markets for years to come. While the UAE has talked in the past about quitting OPEC amid longstanding tensions with Saudi Arabia, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move.
• “This is a decision that we took after a very careful and long review of all our strategies,” he said. “The decision is taken at the right time in our view because it’s not going to hugely impact the market: the market is undersupplied.” The UAE believes that the shortages caused by the war will require agility to respond to market demands without being constrained by the collective decision-making process of the wider group, he said.
• The departure follows years of tension with the leader of OPEC and neighbouring Saudi Arabia, both over oil output policy and competition for regional political influence. The two had clashed occasionally at OPEC+ meetings as the UAE sought to deploy new investments in oil production capacity, while Riyadh pressed the group to restrain supply. Such disagreements had brought Abu Dhabi to the brink of quitting OPEC before, though it never followed through.
• It also represents a win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has previously attacked OPEC for "ripping off the rest of the world". In January, he asked Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations to "bring down the cost of oil" and doubled down on his threat to use tariffs.
• In the immediate future, though, the impact will likely be limited as war between the US and Iran throttles exports from the Persian Gulf, forcing the UAE, the Saudis, Iraq and others to slash production rather than increase it. Oil futures are trading near $111 a barrel in London.

_________________________________

¹The UAE joined in 1967, and its departure will leave the cartel with 11 members. There are an additional 10 non-Opec members in the wider Opec+ alliance.

(Sources: Bloomberg & BBC)

• Canada's federal government posted a smaller budget deficit than expected for the 2025/26 fiscal year and slightly trimmed its growth forecasts, painting a picture of modest fiscal improvement set against a deteriorating economic outlook shaped by US tariffs.
• The spring economic statement, released by the finance ministry on Tuesday, put the 2025/26 deficit at C$66.9Bn, less than the C$78.3Bn shortfall predicted in the November 2025 budget. Officials attributed the better outcome to a combination of spending discipline and higher revenues from crude oil sales, reflecting Canada's continued reliance on its energy sector as a fiscal backstop.
• Despite the headline improvement, the statement carried a cautious tone on growth. Real GDP is forecast to expand by just 1.1% in 2026, down from the 1.2% expected in November, and by 1.9% in 2027, trimmed from 2.0%. Forecasts for 2028 and 2029 were left at 1.9%, though the 2029 figure represented a downward revision from 2.0% previously.
• Real GDP is not expected to return to its pre-tariff trajectory and will remain approximately 1.6% below the level projected in the autumn 2024 outlook by 2029. That is a substantial permanent shortfall and reflects the scale of disruption that trade tensions with Washington have introduced into Canada's medium-term planning.
• Forward deficit projections were left largely intact. The ministry left its deficit forecasts for the next four fiscal years virtually unchanged from November, with the 2026/27 shortfall seen at C$65.3 Bn, 2027/28 at C$63.1Bn, 2028/29 at C$57.7Bn and 2029/30 at C$56.2 Bn. A figure for 2030/31 of C$53.2Bn was also released. The gradual narrowing reflects a slow consolidation path rather than any urgent push toward balance.
• On debt sustainability, the government offered some reassurance. The finance ministry also said the federal debt-to-GDP ⁠ratio in 2025/26 was 41.1%, compared to the 42.4% forecast in November. The ministry projects the ratio will rise only marginally to 41.8% in 2027/28 before stabilising, suggesting the debt burden is seen as broadly manageable even under the revised growth assumptions.

(Sources: Reuters & Investinglive)

• For the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (Q1 2026), Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of J$1.17Bn, a 141.0% deterioration relative to the J$486.35Mn loss in Q1 2025. Negative operating revenues, higher operating expenses, and the absence of joint venture earnings were the main drivers of the outturn.
• Operating revenues, which were negative (-$1.27Bn), were dragged down by net interest expenses and unrealised losses on investments in associates.
• Net interest expenses totalled $392.53Mn, as interest income, which is down 43.8% to $363.22Mn, was met by a 28.2% increase in interest expenses to $755.75Mn. Reduced market yields for structured notes translated into weaker interest income, while the higher interest expenses were due to growth in costs for corporate papers and notes.
• However, it was unrealised losses on its investments in associates totaling $1.55Bn that were the biggest contributor to the losses. This was marginally higher than the $1.54Bn reported for Q1 2025 and reflects price reductions for key securities in its portfolio. Its subsidiary Mayberry Jamaican Equities (MJE: -16.9%) and associate Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL: -5.3%) were likely major contributors.
• Higher operating expenses (OPEX), which rose 35.9%, compounded the losses. A 76.4% increase in other operating expenses, higher financing and carrying costs on investment positions at its wholly-owned subsidiary, Widebase, as well as increased overheads for technology modernisation, digital marketing, were the main contributors. An 18.2% increase in salaries and staff costs as the group added key talent to help pursue its strategic revenue pillars exacerbated losses.
• Lastly, the absence of profits from its joint venture also played a key role in the $1.17 Bn loss. In Q1 2025, MGL benefited from a $518Mn joint venture profit, which helped to keep losses at bay.
• MGL’s weak quarter reflects the difficult operating environment, characterised by still elevated interest rates and equity market volatility against the backdrop of a still weak economy post Hurricane Melissa and the risks to domestic inflation from the external environment, which are likely to continue to keep equity markets depressed.
• That said, management is deploying its broader strategy to improve performance, which includes reducing balance sheet risk, broadening the revenue base, and building a more durable earnings foundation. Moreover, if SVL, whose Q1 2026 earnings were strong (+35.9%), sees a sustained rebound in performance, its stock price may rebound and contribute to an eventual reversal in MGL’s unrealised losses on investments in associates.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, MGL’s stock price closed at J$6.34, reflecting a 14.7% year-to-date decline. At this price, MGL trades at a P/B of 0.63x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.07x.

(Source: Mayberry Group Limited & NCBCM Research)

• The Government is prioritising aviation as a key driver of tourism growth. Tourism Minister, Hon. Edmund Bartlett, announced plans to expand the air transport infrastructure and strengthen connectivity across Jamaica as part of the broader Tourism 3.0 strategy.
• He outlined the approach while addressing stakeholders in Treasure Beach, St. Elizabeth, on Friday (April 24), during the second day of the South Coast Confidence Tour. On the south coast, the Minister highlighted Vernamfield as the centrepiece of the Government’s aviation ambitions.
• The plan extends beyond upgrading the airstrip, envisioning a full aviation ecosystem built around Vernamfield, with the National Reconstruction and Resilience Authority (NaRRA¹) spearheading its development.
• “There is also the Lionel Densham Aerodrome in St. Elizabeth, because I know that it is a matter of local interest. I certainly have been inspired by my conversation with Jack Sprat Restaurant owner and hotelier, Jason Henzell, about the potential for it,” Mr. Bartlett outlined. Mr. Bartlett explained that enhanced aviation infrastructure would significantly cut travel times between key points across the island.
• According to the Minister, the goal is to establish a system where visitors can travel from major entry points to tourism hotspots, “within an hour to an hour and a half,” offering a level of convenience comparable to other international destinations and thereby strengthening Jamaica’s appeal. Mr. Bartlett emphasised that NaRRA is expected to design and implement the infrastructure required to realise this vision.
• By developing the Vernamfield aviation ecosystem and upgrading local aerodromes like Lionel Densham, the government is opening up the South Coast (such as Treasure Beach) to mainstream tourism. This will spread tourism revenue beyond traditional hubs like Montego Bay and Ocho Rios, boosting local economies, especially in disaster-stricken areas in Western Jamaica.

______________________

¹NaRRA is the State agency established to manage post-disaster reconstruction and resilience building.

(Source: JIS & NCBCM Research)

• The Dominican Republic’s economy expanded 5.1% year-over-year in March 2026, marking its strongest monthly growth in 11 months, according to preliminary data from the central bank, signalling a notable pickup in economic momentum.
• Growth was driven primarily by construction, free-zone manufacturing, and financial intermediation, including insurance and related activities, pointing to broad-based expansion across both real and services sectors.
• For Q1 2026, economic activity, as measured by the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE), grew 4.1%. This reflects a gradual recovery, with growth strengthening from 3.5% in January to 3.9% in February and accelerating further in March.
• Despite the improving domestic performance, the external environment remains highly uncertain, with Middle East tensions contributing to oil price volatility and disruptions to maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting downward revisions to global growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund.
• The central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining price stability and closely monitoring global developments, highlighting the risk that external shocks, particularly energy price increases, could spill over into domestic inflation and economic conditions.
• Following a slowdown in 2025, when growth eased to 2.1%, the latest data positions the Dominican Republic among the fastest-growing economies in the Caribbean, although the sustainability of this recovery will depend on external conditions.
• The rebound reflects strong domestic demand and sectoral recovery. But with the economy still highly exposed to external shocks, particularly oil prices and global trade disruptions, growth momentum, while improving, remains vulnerable in the near term.

(Source: Dominican Today)