• Although the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) summit in Ankara on July 7-8 passed relatively smoothly and reaffirmed NATO's "ironclad commitment" to collective defence under Article 5, the deep-rooted disagreements between the United States (US) and Europe over Iran, Greenland, Ukraine and defence spending remain firmly in place. As a result, BMI expects Transatlantic tensions to persist throughout the Trump presidency, reinforcing expectations that European members will increasingly prepare for reduced US involvement in NATO.
• Against this backdrop, European countries are expected to continue increasing defence spending to reduce their reliance on the US, supported by long-term commitments to raise military expenditure and invest in new defence capabilities such as the Deep Precision Strike missile programme. However, the pace of this build-up will likely remain constrained by high fiscal deficits, elevated public debt burdens and rising age-related spending pressures, limiting Europe's ability to quickly address US concerns over burden-sharing.
• The summit also reaffirmed strong Western support for Ukraine by formalising EUR70Bn in military assistance commitments for 2026 and signalling comparable support for 2027, providing Kyiv with the resources needed to continue resisting major Russian advances. While President Trump's decision to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptor missiles should ease tensions in the near term, uncertainty over future US policy and Trump's relatively volatile approach to Russia and Ukraine will continue to weigh on the outlook.
• At the same time, President Trump's hardline positions on Iran, renewed claims over Greenland and continued review of US troop deployments in Europe remain key sources of downside risk for Transatlantic relations. Any renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict, combined with pressure on European allies to provide greater military support or further reductions in the US military footprint in Europe, could quickly reignite tensions within NATO.
• Meanwhile, Türkiye is set to become an increasingly important player within NATO's defence-industrial base, as improving US-Türkiye relations, the potential return to the F-35 fighter jet programme, and rapidly expanding weapons exports strengthen Ankara's strategic importance. With defence exports reaching a record US$10Bn in 2025 and expected to rise further, Türkiye is likely to play a growing role in supporting NATO's long-term military capabilities while expanding its influence across the alliance.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Japan's government is considering revising language on monetary policy in its economic ‌blueprint, a draft obtained by Reuters showed, as market fears it is infringing on central bank independence push bond yields to multi-decade highs.
• The possible change highlights the balancing act facing Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, whose dovish stance and preference for aggressive fiscal and monetary support have unsettled investors and intensified scrutiny of her administration's influence over policy as borrowing costs climb.
• Since taking office in October, Takaichi has vowed to boost investment and focus on spending to revitalise the economy. Her administration has also signalled reservations over the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes. In a draft economic blueprint released last month, the government said it was "very ⁠important for monetary policy to be guided appropriately to achieve a stronger economy." Some analysts said the wording sparked a selloff in Japanese government bonds, fuelling concerns that the government could pressure the BOJ to keep interest rates low and risk falling behind the curve as inflationary pressures build.
• In response, the government revised the language to emphasise the importance of the BOJ conducting appropriate monetary policy "to achieve stable inflation" as Japan seeks to strengthen its economy, according to the revised version of the blueprint obtained by Reuters. The revised blueprint draft, however, retained a key passage urging the central bank to align its policy decisions with the government's economic agenda. Several domestic media outlets had earlier reported that the language could be revised.
• The news failed to prevent the benchmark 10-year yield from hitting a 30-year high of 2.865% on Wednesday, July 8th "Investors' distrust over Takaichi's policy stance and its communication with markets runs deep and can't be fixed with such a minor tweak in wording," said Katsutoshi Inadome, a senior strategist ‌at Sumitomo ⁠Mitsui Trust Asset Management. "Bond markets won't stabilise unless the fiscal and monetary language of the blueprint is completely rewritten," he said, projecting the 10-year yield to hit 3% in the coming months.

(Source: Reuters)

• In a July 3^rd market notification, Dolphin Cove Limited (DCOVE) said its Board has been told of a possible deal to sell the company’s majority stake. Those shares are held by World of Dolphins Inc., DCOVE’s majority shareholder, and had been pledged as collateral, or charged¹.
• The enforcement of this share charge stems from the wider Chapter 11 bankruptcy and restructuring of DCOVE's ultimate parent entities, leaving investment banker Greenhill & Co. to manage the sale of the 79.99% block.
• The notification stated that the creditor holding that note was actively looking to sell the charged shares and DCOVE itself is not a party to any such deal. As at the date of the notice, Dolphin Cove’s independent directors were not aware that a binding agreement had been signed by or for World of Dolphins Inc.
• The Board has asked World of Dolphins Inc. for more information so it can assess the matter. It will then decide whether the situation triggers any disclosure, regulatory, takeover, or shareholder-communication obligations under the Jamaica Stock Exchange Rules, the Junior Market Rules, or securities laws.
• DCOVE’s stock price has fallen by 11.7% since the start of the year, closing at $10.60 on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. At its current price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.0x, which is below the Junior Market Others Sector average of 1.8x.

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¹Charged shares are shares pledged as collateral (security) for a loan or other obligation. Where the borrower defaults, the creditor holding the charge can enforce its security by selling the pledged shares to recover the amount owed.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s economy contracted sharply in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, with real GDP falling 4.1% year-over-year. That marks a second straight quarterly decline following the landfall of Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, which drove a 7.1% contraction in Q4 2025.
• In Q1 2026, only the financial (+2.9% y-o-y) and manufacturing (+0.6%) sectors expanded, while mining (-25.3%), agriculture (-18.3%), and food and accommodations (-16.6%, a key proxy for tourism) remained weak.
• Higher-frequency indicators echoed the weakness². Bauxite production fell 22.1% y-o-y, passenger arrivals dropped 27.5%, and hectares of domestic crops reaped declined 15.2%. Consumption held up better, however. Wholesale and retail trade slipped just 0.1% y-o-y, an improvement on the 2.2% contraction in Q4 2025, while unemployment slid modestly and price growth stayed relatively contained. The unemployment rate was at 3.7% for Q2 2026. This was 40 basis points higher than the 3.3% seen in both Q2 2025 and Q1 2026.
• Looking ahead, BMI expects the economy to contract 1.1% in 2026, revised from an earlier 1.5% forecast, with the economy contracting through Q3 before turning positive to close the year. Weaknesses in tourism, mining, and agriculture are set to persist: mining output fell again in April (-16.6%) and May (-9.8%), and stopover arrivals dropped 20.4% y-o-y in April. Rising inflation, linked partly to the US-Iran conflict and elevated oil prices, is also expected to weigh on consumption. Additional strong storms, geopolitical uncertainty, and higher-for-longer inflation remain the key downside risks.

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²The Bridgetown Initiative is a Barbados-led proposal to reform the global financial system and improve access to climate and development finance, particularly for small island developing states and other vulnerable countries.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino met with representatives of the Japan Business Federation, the main organisation of the Japanese private sector, to strengthen economic relations and open new investment opportunities in Panama.
• During the meeting, both parties agreed to promote the negotiation of an Economic Partnership Agreement between Panama and Japan, as well as explore investments in strategic infrastructure projects being developed in the country.
• The Keidanren delegation expressed interest in participating in important initiatives related to the Panama Canal, including the Río Indio multipurpose reservoir, the ocean-to-ocean gas pipeline project, and the development of new ports.
• Japanese businesspeople also expressed interest in other infrastructure projects, including the extension of Line 3 of the Panama Metro to Costa Verde, the construction of Line 2A of the Panama Metro, and the modernisation of the Cerro Patacón landfill. The possibility of promoting Panama as a regional technology hub was also discussed, including the installation of data centres and companies dedicated to the development of artificial intelligence tools.
• President Mulino highlighted the recent signing of an agreement between the aeronautical authorities of both countries, which establishes a framework for the future operation of direct commercial flights between Panama and Tokyo. Keidanren leader Fujimoto Masayoshi highlighted Panama’s strategic importance to the global supply chain and requested progress on the Economic Partnership Agreement.
• The discussions signal growing Japanese interest in Panama's infrastructure, logistics and technology sectors, which could support the country's ambitions to strengthen its role as a regional trade, investment and digital hub.

(Source: Newsroom Panama)

• Commonwealth officials agreed on a draft plan to accelerate investment and reform the global financial system ahead of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) in Antigua later this year. The draft will now be considered by Commonwealth foreign ministers at the start of the conference.
• Barbados is seeking formal recognition of the Bridgetown Initiative³, with High Commissioner to London Edmund Hinkson stating that the country's primary interest is securing the Commonwealth's reaffirmation of its commitment to the initiative as an important multilateral platform for reforming the global financial system, particularly for small island developing states (SIDS) and less developed countries.
• Commonwealth representatives also agreed to continue working together to address structural barriers to climate finance, particularly for small island developing, less developed and other vulnerable states, while supporting financial innovation, sustainability-linked financing and disaster-risk financing instruments to provide rapid and predictable liquidity during crises.
• The draft also encourages the expansion of climate-resilient financing and insurance instruments, including guarantees, sustainable bonds, risk-sharing mechanisms, blended finance, concessional loans, climate-resilient provisions and debt-pause clauses.
• On the issue of reparatory justice for slavery and the transatlantic slave trade, Commonwealth officials agreed to defer the matter for consideration by foreign ministers during the Heads of Government Conference.
• The draft underscores the Commonwealth's growing focus on reforming global finance and expanding climate financing, which could strengthen access to funding and improve financial resilience for Barbados and other vulnerable small island states.

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³The Bridgetown Initiative is a Barbados-led proposal to reform the global financial system and improve access to climate and development finance, particularly for small island developing states and other vulnerable countries.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Concern about high inflation mounted at the United States (U.S.) central bank's meeting last month, as officials followed Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh's lead to a more stripped-down policy statement even amid concerns that price increases were broadening and might require interest rate hikes.
• A few participants at the June 16-17 meeting saw a case to raise rates right away. But the broader debate seemed evenly divided, minutes of the session showed on Wednesday, July 8, 2026, with "most participants" seeing scenarios ⁠in which inflation would fall towards the Fed's 2% target on its own, and "most" also seeing situations where it would remain high. "Almost all" of that group considered a rate increase as necessary if that occurred.
• "Participants generally assessed that information received over the inter-meeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated a bit," the minutes said. Ultimately, "all participants" supported holding rates steady.
• Given inflation running about double the Fed's target, "members concurred that the post-meeting statement would convey the (Federal Open Market) Committee's commitment to achieving its dual-mandate goals and emphasise that the Committee will deliver price stability," the minutes said. Market reaction was muted, with stocks barely budging, yields on Treasuries slightly paring earlier ‌increases, and ⁠interest-rate futures maintaining bets the Fed will deliver a rate hike by its September meeting.
• The policy debate and decision formed only one aspect of the discussion at Warsh's inaugural meeting as Fed chief. Policymakers also considered his proposal to end "forward guidance" and provide less commentary in the statement on coming rate decisions. "A majority of participants remarked that they saw advantages in shortening the statement," the minutes said, ⁠while "most participants" supported removing language indicating the Fed's next policy move would likely be a rate cut.
• The alternative approved by the Fed in June removed guidance about rates altogether, in alignment with Warsh's overall desire to avoid making promises about rate decisions. The minutes also ⁠noted that Warsh described his plan to establish five task forces to examine how monetary policy is conducted, but do not indicate any discussion of it.

(Source: Reuters)

• The Canadian government told the Trump administration that new legislation combatting forced labour in supply chains should shield Canada from new tariffs. In a written submission to the United States Trade Representative's office, the federal government said it "remains committed to working closely with the United States to eradicate forced labour from global supply chains."
• "In light of Canada's existing prohibition, complementary supply chain transparency measures, newly introduced standalone forced labour import legislation and continued commitment to Canada-U.S. co-operation, Canada respectfully submits that there is no basis for the imposition of additional Section 301 duties on Canadian goods," the government said in its submission.
• Ottawa's case was among more than 1,500 written submissions from nations and industry groups ahead of a three-day hearing in Washington this week on U.S. President Donald Trump's use of Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to rebuild his global tariff wall around the United States.
• S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced in March that his office was launching trade investigations into 60 countries, including Canada. Greer said Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom and some other countries should be hit with 10% duties because they're not doing enough to enforce bans on forced labour. He also proposed a 12.5% duty on dozens of other countries that have partial or no bans on forced labour in supply chains.
• Canada already had legislation intended to curb forced labour in supply chains, which requires annual reports to the federal government. But the federal government tabled a bill last month to boost enforcement. Bill C-35 would create a public list of products that have been linked to forced labour in specific regions, based on intelligence from embassies and other authorities. It would require importers to prove that specific products from listed regions were not made through slavery.
• In separate submissions to the U.S. trade office, Canadian business and industry groups made the case that there are more effective paths to curbing the issue of forced labour than tariffs, particularly in the deeply integrated North American market. "We urge USTR to assess Canada separately under Section 301, suspend consideration of the proposed 10% tariff while Canada's enforcement reforms are implemented and evaluated and prioritise targeted bilateral enforcement co-operation over broad country-level measures," Canadian Chamber of Commerce vice-president Matthew Holmes wrote in his submission.

(Source: CBC)

• Dolla Financial Services Limited (DOLLA) has completed the acquisition of the loan portfolio of Evolve Loan Co. Limited, effective June 30, 2026. The acquired portfolio has an approximate gross value of J$700.0Mn and comprises approximately 1,800 customer relationships.
• DOLLA said the acquisition supports its strategy to expand its loan portfolio, grow its customer base, and strengthen long-term shareholder value. The Company also said it will provide further market updates as required under its continuous disclosure obligations.
• On the other side of the transaction, Supreme Ventures Limited (SVL) said the transaction forms part of its strategic initiative to optimise its financial services operations. The decision to let go of Evolve Loan Co. Ltd. allows SVL to reallocate resources toward the development of more efficient, innovative, and technology-driven financial solutions.
• SVL noted that it remains committed to expanding its digital financial services ecosystem and delivering enhanced value to its customers and shareholders through innovative products and solutions. This divestment sharpens SVL’s strategic focus on its core gaming and lottery franchise and technology-driven financial services, which could potentially drive further gains in earnings.
• DOLLA and SVL have both climbed year-to-date, appreciating 6.6% and 5.0%, to close at $2.92 and $18.15, respectively, on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. At these prices, DOLLA trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.8x, below the Junior Market Financial average of 13.3x. On the other hand, SVL’s price-to-book value (P/B) of 9.4x exceeds its Entertainment Sector peer, Palace Amusement Co. Ltd. (0.57x).

(Sources: Dolla Financial Services Limited, Supreme Ventures Limited & NCBCM Research)

• PBS Group Limited (PBS) yesterday announced a 10-year strategic agreement, valued in the eight-figure US dollar range, with a leading international bank to modernise and strengthen its data, analytics, and resilience infrastructure across Central America. Formally approved by the bank’s Board of Directors, the agreement positions PBS as a long-term strategic partner responsible for supporting the transformation and operation of critical enterprise platforms.
• The engagement spans a multi-phase implementation and a long-term managed services model, reinforcing PBS’ recurring revenue streams. As part of the initiative, PBS will deploy a next-generation data architecture powered by Oracle Exadata, Oracle Database 26AI, Oracle Database Appliance (ODA), and a Zero Data-Loss Disaster Recovery solution, alongside capabilities enabled through data integration architecture.
• The transformation will extend to the bank’s Analytics Unit through the modernisation of its enterprise Data Warehouse environment and integration capabilities. AI technologies will be embedded into selected operational processes to improve efficiency, strengthen risk management, and support faster data-driven decision-making. The project will be led by PBS’ Advanced Services Division.
• Group CEO Pedro M. Paris said the agreement highlights the Company’s consulting role in delivering the highly resilient, data-centric, and intelligence-driven platforms that modern financial institutions require. From an investor perspective, he added, it validates PBS’ strategy of building long-term relationships around mission-critical environments that combine high-value engineering capabilities with managed services. PBS Group Limited is publicly traded on the Jamaica and Barbados stock exchanges. Financially, the deal deepens PBS’ recurring revenue base and adds to earnings visibility.
• PBS’s stock price has declined 29.2% since the start of the year to close at US$0.69 on Tuesday, July 7, 2026. At this level, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 61.6x, above the JSE US-dollar (USD) Market average of 21.4x.

(Sources: PBS Group Limited Press Release & NCBCM Research)