• Canada is negotiating with the U.S. to remove tariffs on some critical sectors, and a deal could be wrapped into bilateral pacts alongside a review of the United States-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA), Dominic LeBlanc, a Canadian senior minister, said on Thursday, February 26, 2026.
• LeBlanc, who is responsible for Canada-United States trade, noted that despite some U.S. officials casting doubt on the USMCA, private conversations between the three governments about the pact were not discouraging.
• Canada is trying to persuade the U.S. to reduce or remove painful tariffs on key sectors such as steel, aluminum and automobiles that President Donald Trump's administration imposed last year. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said last year that the talks on sectoral tariffs were likely to be incorporated into the broader USMCA review. Leblanc plans to meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer next week.
• "We are still ready and anxious to do that work," LeBlanc told a business audience in Toronto, referring to removing sectoral tariffs. "Those will be bilateral arrangements," LeBlanc said, adjacent to a trilateral trade agreement.
• Mexico already started formal negotiations with the United States on renewal of the USMCA. LeBlanc said that he is not pessimistic about renewing the trilateral framework, given it is in the economic interests of the three signatories to keep it going. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade deal is up for review and needs to be completed by July 1, 2026.

(Source: Reuters)

• Jamaica's network of strong bilateral relations with foreign governments has been instrumental in generating a comprehensive disaster response to accelerate the nation's recovery from Hurricane Melissa, according to Fitch, BMI. Prime Minister Andrew Holness has acknowledged broad support from CARICOM member states and regional institutions for their 'immediate engagement', alongside numerous bilateral allies such as the US, Canada, Venezuela, the EU and Mainland China. Therefore, while the country faces a lengthy post-Melissa recovery trajectory, its extensive network of bilateral partnerships and active engagement with multilateral institutions will provide crucial support during the country's recovery.
• In the years ahead, Jamaica will maintain its focus on maintaining its strong bilateral partnership with the US, reflecting the significant economic interdependence between the two nations across tourism, remittances and trade sectors. During a January 2026 call, PM Holness and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed their commitment to sustained bilateral cooperation, addressing several key areas, including continued hurricane recovery assistance and US support for these efforts. Achievements in domestic crime reduction, the country's pivotal contribution to anti-gang operations in Haiti and the recent improvement of the US travel advisory from Level 3 to Level 2 (lower is better) represent a significant boost for the storm-affected tourism industry.
• Despite recent US pressure to discontinue the country’s long-standing medical cooperation program with Cuba - an arrangement the government is now reassessing amid objections from the Donald Trump administration - strong ties with Washington remain a cornerstone priority for the Holness administration.
• Still, with Prime Minister Holness having served as chair of CARICOM in 2025, Jamaica will continue to prioritise strong relationships and cooperation with its Caribbean neighbours. Furthermore, the country has joined numerous regional cooperation agreements, including the Alliance for Security, Justice and Development with 18 other Latin American markets promoted by the Inter-American Development Bank to increase regional cooperation against transnational crime.
• Additionally, Jamaica signed an agreement with Barbados, Belize, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica in July 2025 to allow open movement of all Caribbean nationals by October 1, 2025, under the CARICOM Single Market and Economy, a development strategy to promote increased regional economic cooperation and integration. The country also enjoys trade benefits from numerous regional CARICOM bilateral trade agreements, including with Venezuela, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Cuba.
• Mainland China will also remain an important relationship for Jamaica. Jamaica joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2019 and has received inbound investment from China for infrastructure projects, including the Southern Coastal Highway Improvement Project. Additionally, despite US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressing concern about China’s alleged ‘predatory practices’ during a joint press conference with PM Holness in Kingston in March 2025, Jamaica continues to court Chinese investment.
• A memorandum of understanding was signed in August 2025 with a Chinese firm to conduct feasibility studies to expand Jamaica’s North-South Highway. While Jamaica’s relationship with China was not featured heavily in the 2025 election season, historic underinvestment in infrastructure and the negative consequences for growth are politically salient issues in Jamaica. We anticipate that Jamaica’s government will continue to accept investment opportunities from China, despite the muted objections and handwringing from the US.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Governor of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ), Richard Byles, indicated that the central bank now expects full economic recovery from Hurricane Melissa within two to three years, representing an improvement from the earlier projection of three to four years. Governor Byles explained that this more favourable outlook reflects expectations for a quicker rebound in agricultural output, alongside faster restoration of electricity and telecommunications services.
• Speaking at the BOJ’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Report press conference on February 24, he noted that the central bank anticipates real GDP contraction of between 1% and 3% in FY2025/26, which is narrower than the Bank’s previous estimate. As reconstruction efforts advance and sectoral activity normalises, he added that real GDP growth is projected to recover to between 1% and 3% in FY2026/27.
• On the external front, Byles stated that Jamaica’s current account balance is expected to deteriorate in the medium term, primarily due to hurricane-related disruptions to tourism and increased imports tied to infrastructure rebuilding and relief activities. However, stronger remittance inflows and insurance payouts are likely to partially offset this pressure. In this context, the BOJ projects the current account balance to range from a deficit of 0.5% of GDP to a surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY2025/26, compared with a surplus of 3% of GDP in FY2024/25.
• That said, Jamaica’s external buffers remain robust. The Governor reported that gross international reserves reached a historic high of US$6.8bn as at February 19, 2026, equivalent to approximately 155.8% of the adequacy benchmark, reinforcing the country’s resilience to external shocks.
• Turning to financial stability, Governor Byles stated that the domestic financial system has demonstrated broad resilience following Hurricane Melissa, with deposit-taking institutions maintaining capital adequacy ratios above regulatory benchmarks. While asset quality showed some softening, the non-performing loan ratio increased modestly to 2.8% at end-2025 from 2.5% at end-2024, remaining well below the prudential threshold of 10%.
• Private-sector credit growth remained stable, expanding by 8% in 2025, compared with 7.3% in 2024, suggesting continued lending support for economic recovery despite the post-hurricane environment.

(Source: JIS)

• Liquidity conditions in the Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) banking sector, especially within the automatic clearing house, have tightened as excess liquidity has declined in recent months. As at November 2025, commercial banks' excess liquidity fell to $3.5Bn from $6.6Bn in May, pushing up borrowing costs and slowing credit growth.
• The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago (CBTT) attributes this decline to factors like open market operations and foreign exchange sales, which removed over $4.5 billion from the system, though it is augmented by government spending of the income from the energy sector locally.
• The banking sector is regulated by the CBTT, which oversees monetary policy, financial stability, and commercial banks. Regulations include capital requirements, risk management guidelines, and consumer protection laws. The Central Bank also monitors liquidity and solvency to safeguard depositors' interests.
• Liquidity issues in Trinidad and Tobago's banking sector are having a significant impact on the economy. With excess liquidity decreasing, borrowing costs are rising, and credit growth is slowing down. This is affecting various sectors, including motor vehicle loans and bridging finance.
• It has resulted in a multi-front challenge for the real economy, primarily by driving up interest rates that price out businesses, particularly those in non-energy sectors, from essential investment opportunities. This tightening is already manifesting as visible stagnation in consumer and commercial credit, with a marked slowdown in motor vehicle loans and bridging finance.
• Compounding these issues are inflationary pressures from global price hikes and domestic wage adjustments that squeeze household disposable income. While these wage increases aim to provide relief, the IMF has cautioned that without strict fiscal discipline, they risk fueling further economic uncertainty and potentially hindering long-term growth

(Sources: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• The Barbados Government today laid the 2026-2027 Estimates of Expenditure and Revenue in Parliament, officially kicking off the budgetary cycle. The submission included a projected forecast for the current 2025-2026 financial year, providing a comparative look at the nation's fiscal performance. These documents serve as the foundation for the upcoming Parliamentary debate on the Appropriation Bill, 2026, which is scheduled to begin on March 2, 2026.
• The revised deficit of $83.8Mn, on the IFI basis, represents -0.5% of GDP at market prices, estimated at $16.24Bn. The primary surplus for the financial year 2025-2026 is estimated to be $658.4Mn or 4.1% of GDP on a cash basis.
• On the accrual basis, current revenue for the next fiscal year is projected at $5.28Bn.  On the cash basis, current revenue is projected at $5.18Bn, an increase of $1.32Bn or 34.3% over the revised 2025-2026 level of $3.86Bn.
• It is estimated that the government’s total expenditure for the financial year 2026-2027, on the accrual basis, will be $6.14Bn (inclusive of amortisation).  Of the amount approved for the 2026-2027 financial year, $5.15Bn represents current expenditure and $973.80Mn represents capital expenditure and amortisation. When converted to the cash basis, total expenditure is expected to be $5.08Bn, exclusive of amortisation, with current expenditure of $4.19Mn and capital expenditure of $889.8Mn. Current expenditure is above the revised 2025-2026 figure of $3.42n by $766.7Mn.
• Expenditure on goods and services is expected to increase by $376.2Mn over the revised figure for 2025-2026 of $590.5Mn to $966.7Mn. Current transfers are projected to increase by $368.4Mn or 32% to $1.52Mn.
• The repayment of principal and interest on the government’s debt is expected to account for $1.50Bn. The primary balance is projected to be a surplus of $817.5 million, representing 4.8% of GDP (estimated at $17.06Bn) on the cash basis.

(Source: Barbados Today)

• Japan must keep raising interest rates and tighten fiscal policy as the economy is already in "great shape," former central bank chief Haruhiko Kuroda said, warning that Premier Sanae Takaichi's big spending plan could stoke an inflationary upswing.
• With the economy enjoying solid growth and steady wage gains, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) can probably raise interest rates about twice a year in 2026 and 2027, said Kuroda. "When Abenomics was deployed, Japan was suffering from deflation and a strong yen. Now, Japan is experiencing inflation and a weak yen. Japan needs to move toward tighter fiscal and monetary policy," he added.
• According to Kuroda, "The BoJ must gradually raise interest rates towards levels deemed neutral to the economy. Fiscal policy must be tightened, too," The remarks highlight how Japan’s evolving economic landscape has driven a striking divergence in policy thinking between Kuroda, Abenomics’ most ardent architect, and its current torchbearer, Takaichi.
• With inflation above its 2% target for years and a tight job market pushing up wages, the BoJ exited Kuroda's stimulus in 2024 and raised rates several times, including in December. Fiscal policy, by contrast, is likely to stay expansionary. A fan of Abenomics, Takaichi has ramped up spending and pledged to suspend by two years an 8% sales tax on food to cushion the blow to households from rising living costs.
• Kuroda warned that such expansionary fiscal policy could backfire by fuelling inflationary pressure and pushing up bond yields. "It makes sense for the government to support innovation to boost long term potential growth. But spending money to cushion the blow from rising living costs would be counterproductive as doing so would fuel inflation," he said.
• The BoJ may see scope to raise its key policy rate, currently at 0.75%, to around 1.5-1.75% in coming years if the economy can sustain its momentum.

(Source: Reuters)

• Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Wednesday, February 25, 2026, that the back-and-forth on President Trump's tariffs adds to uncertainty for businesses and the economy.
• "Businesses still feel that heightened uncertainty, and that has something to do with why you see such a low hiring rate and why people aren't leaning into investments the way that they might," said Barkin. "Hard to know where that's going from here, but I'm not seeing a big pickup on the job growth side."
• Aside from tariffs, Barkin is "cautiously optimistic" that inflation will continue to come down this year. Meanwhile, on the job front, he noted that he has been reassured by the past few jobs reports. "I've been reassured by the labour market, also by the demand side, which has stayed relatively healthy, and I think that's the question is whether you need to put more in there on the rate side to help bolster demand," he said.
• The question is whether the Fed needs to cut rates further to boost the demand side amid low hiring. The Fed cut interest rates three times at the end of last year to bolster the job market.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

• Fitch BMI expects the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) to hold the policy rate at 5.50% at its March 31, 2026, meeting. The central bank maintained a cautious, mildly hawkish bias, delivering only one cut in 2025 in May 2025 and this prudence is expected to extend through 2026 as the BOJ continues balancing macroeconomic stability, policy credibility and anchored inflation expectations.
• Against this backdrop, the baseline is that policymakers will assess the impact of February’s rate cut alongside expansionary fiscal conditions, rather than risk undermining recent gains in price stability.
• Although the February 2026 easing in the policy rate occurred earlier than previously expected, January’s softer inflation outturn indicated that the inflation shock from Hurricane Melissa was more contained than initially feared. This allowed the BOJ to provide targeted support to a storm-affected economy without materially worsening near-term inflation dynamics.
• However, Fitch BMI expects the policy rate to close 2026 at 5.50%. This projection considers that price pressures will strengthen through 2026, reflecting reduced productive capacity and fiscal stimulus effects.
• Overall, inflation is forecast to average 6.1% in 2026, reinforcing expectations that the BOJ will pause further easing to preserve macroeconomic stability and limit upside risks to inflation. However, this is contrast with the BOJ's MPC who expects inflation to generally track within the target over the next eight quarters, although it anticipates temporary breaches of the upper limit in the June and September 2026 quarters, before inflation is projected to return to the 4.0%–6.0% target range by end-December 2026. This improved profile reflects a moderation in projected second-round price effects and a decline in private-sector inflation expectations toward more normal levels.
• Notably, the Jamaican dollar is expected to remain broadly stable, ending 2026 near JMD162/US$, compared with JMD159/US$ at end-2025. Currency resilience in the immediate post-hurricane period reflected the Central Banks’s FX market support, elevated domestic interest rates, and moderating US dollar strength, all of which helped dampen inflation pass-through. Still, Fitch BMI believes that rate cuts could reintroduce depreciation pressures, posing risks to sustaining favourable inflation trends.
• Risks to the outlook are two-sided. Further moderation in inflation in February 2026, driven by weaker domestic demand and contained imported prices, could create room for additional easing, while severe weather shocks during the year could push inflation above projections and prompt the BoJ to adopt a more restrictive policy stance than currently expected.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Brydens Group has announced it is in the final stages of construction of a new regional warehouse in Trinidad and Tobago (T&T), a facility designed to anchor its distribution strategy across the southern Caribbean.
• David Franco, Regional Business Development Director for premium beverages at the Brydens Group, said this move is expected to drive operational efficiencies from source to consumer and add value for its strong partnerships with “world-class brands.” This infrastructure development coincides with the announcement that the group’s subsidiary, Stansfeld Scott Barbados, has been appointed the official importer and exclusive distributor for a range of brands within the Moët Hennessy portfolio in Barbados.
• The agreement includes iconic brands such as Veuve Clicquot, Dom Perignon, Ruinart, Krug, Armand de Brignac, Chandon, Glenmorangie, Belvedere, Ardbeg, Terrazas de los Andes, Cheval des Andes, Cloudy Bay, Numanthia, Volcan and Eminente. Franco further stated that the company’s strategic focus remains on infrastructure development and acquisitions.
• In early 2024, the Brydens Group acquired Stansfeld Scott Barbados, the largest beverage distribution company on the island, in a deal that included six wine world retail locations. In the same year, the Group also acquired Caribbean Producers Jamaica (CPJ) and its subsidiary CPJ St Lucia. While these companies already maintained a relationship with Moët Hennessy, the partnership was expanded under the Brydens Group’s stewardship to include Glenmorangie, Ardbeg, WhistlePig and Chandon sparkling wines deepening the premium spirits and wines offering in both markets.
• Just last year, A.S. Bryden & Sons (Guyana) Inc. launched operations, securing the distribution rights for the core Diageo portfolio. This strategic move successfully extended the Group’s premium beverage footprint into one of the region’s most significant high-growth markets.
• Expansion into premium beverages should boost earnings via superior margins. Nevertheless, high price elasticity presents a risk; if excise taxes rise or luxury tourism declines, the company may face cash flow constraints due to an accumulation of high-cost, slow-moving inventory.
• A.S. Bryden is listed on the TTSE, where it closed Tuesday’s trading session at TT$1.42. At this price, it trades at a 39.9x P/E multiple, which is above the TTSE Manufacturing Industry Median of 14.6x

(Sources: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian & NCBCM Research)

• Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund (NRF) received almost US$10Mn per day in oil revenues in January, as payments for the last crude cargoes produced and sold in 2025 were deposited into the account.
• According to the Bank of Guyana’s latest NRF report, the Fund received US$110.9Mn (GY$23Bn) in royalties in January. That sum represents the statutory 2% royalty on the value of all crude oil produced and sold in the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, the Fund received US$184.1Mn (GY$38Mn) in profit oil revenues. Together, the inflows totalled about US$295Mn (GY$61Bn) for the month. Spread across 31 days, that equates to nearly US$10Mn daily flowing into the State’s oil account.
• The January receipts represent payments for three lifts of crude produced in 2025, as the final cargoes for that year. The individual payments amounted to US$60.9Mn, US$62.1Mn and US$61.1Mn.
• For 2025 overall, the NRF recorded more than US$2.1Bn (GY$443Bn) from government oil sales, over US$330Mn (GY$69Bn) in royalties, and US$15Mn (GY$3Bn) in signature bonus payments. A US$15Mn signing bonus was paid in 2025 by TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy and Petronas following their award of Block S4. Each company paid its share separately.
• Guyana expects 309 oil lifts in 2026, up from 260 in 2025, with each cargo averaging about one million barrels. Based on the government’s projected share of those cargoes, oil revenues to the State are estimated at approximately US$2.79Bn this year, including payments for oil sales and royalties.
• ExxonMobil produced an average of 716,000 barrels of oil per day (b/d) in 2025 and increased capacity to more than 900,000 b/d in the later months. Overall, Guyana, now Latin America’s newest oil producer, has rapidly become one of the region’s largest, driven by investments from the ExxonMobil-led consortium, which includes Hess, now owned by Chevron, and CNOOC.

(Source: OilNow Guyana)