• The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) said Barbados’ economic outlook for 2026, and the medium term remains favourable, supported by strong fundamentals, disciplined fiscal management, and a clear transformational agenda.
• Its January–December 2025 review highlighted continued momentum in tourism, construction, and business services, underpinned by sustained public and private investment, alongside low and stable inflation and strong external buffers as key sources of resilience against external shocks.
• The CBB cautioned that execution remains the principal challenge. They stressed that sustained public- and private-sector collaboration, continued productivity gains, and timely implementation of reforms under the Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) 2026 programme are critical to translating macroeconomic stability into higher growth, stronger resilience, and durable improvements in living standards.
• Despite intensifying global trade tensions, Barbados recorded stable economic growth and low inflation in 2025, with real GDP expanding by 2.7%, driven mainly by tourism, business and other services, construction, and agriculture. The unemployment rate stood at 6.6% at end-Q3, jobless claims rose modestly, the 12-month moving average inflation rate slowed to 0.7% by November 2025, and point-to-point inflation increased to 1.7%, reflecting higher housing and utility costs and stronger demand for dining services.
• CBB Governor Kevin Greenidge said growth is expected to remain solid in the near term and strengthen modestly over the medium term, with real GDP forecast between 2.5%–3.0% in 2026, supported by tourism, construction, wholesale and retail trade, and business and other services. Over the medium term, growth is expected to trend toward ~3.5% per year, supported by sustained public and private investment, productivity reforms, and economic diversification under BERT 2026.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• The Bahamas has set a new all-time tourism record, welcoming an unprecedented 12.5Mn visitors, according to figures released Wednesday by the Ministry of Tourism, Investments and Aviation.
• The milestone marks the highest number of visitors ever recorded by the country and cements The Bahamas’ position as one of the world’s leading tourism destinations. Visitor arrivals increased 11.4% year-over-year, surpassing 2024’s previous record and exceeding pre-pandemic 2019 levels by more than 70.0%, reflecting sustained global demand and continued growth across multiple markets.
• Cruise tourism remained the primary driver of growth, accounting for 86.5% of total arrivals. Sea arrivals surpassed 10.6 Mn visitors, a 14.0% increase compared to 2024 and nearly double 2019 levels. Major ports, including Nassau/Paradise Island, experienced record throughput, supported by new cruise infrastructure and expanded partnerships with cruise lines.
• Grand Bahama experienced a major tourism resurgence, with total arrivals exceeding one million for the first time in more than two decades. Approximately 1.1Mn visitors arrived through December, fueled by expanded and sustained airlift. Air arrivals rose 20.0% year-over-year and exceeded 2019 levels by more than 30.0%, benefiting hotels, vacation rentals, restaurants and local service providers.
• Tourism growth also continued to diversify across the Family Islands. Eleuthera recorded nearly 30.0% growth, while Bimini and the Berry Islands strengthened their roles as cruise destinations. The Out Islands also continued to see gains. Nearly 30.0% of stopover visitors traveled to the Out Islands, helping spread tourism benefits more evenly across the archipelago.
• Air arrivals remained resilient despite global aviation constraints and weather disruptions. Nearly 1.7Mn foreign air visitors traveled to The Bahamas, with strong late-year momentum. Canada emerged as a key growth market, with stopover arrivals surpassing pre-pandemic levels following expanded air service and strengthened airline partnerships. Stopover tourism remained strong, with more than 1.8Mn stopover visitors recorded during the year. About two-thirds stayed in Nassau/Paradise Island, while nearly 30.0% visited the Out Islands, supporting local businesses and community-based tourism.
• As the country builds on consecutive record-breaking years, the Ministry of Tourism, Investments and Aviation said it remains focused on sustainable development, infrastructure expansion, and ensuring that continued tourism growth delivers lasting economic benefits for Bahamians nationwide. With consecutive record-breaking years and strong global demand, the Bahamas enters its next phase with confidence, positioning itself not only as a high-volume cruise hub but also as a growing multi-island destination for longer stays and repeat visitors.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

• President Donald ​Trump said on Thursday he intends to announce his pick to replace Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell next week, as speculation ‌intensifies over who will lead the U.S. central bank after Powell steps aside from the job in May.
• The Fed, which cut rates three times in 2025, left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the ‌3.50%-3.75% range after the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Trump says the rate should be two to three percentage ​points lower, a level historically consistent with a stalled or faltering economy.
• The economy grew at a 4.4% annualised rate in the third quarter, according to Commerce Department data. Over the course of the Trump administration's months-long formal search for Powell's successor, the president has been seen to favour different candidates, even ‍as he has ramped up his campaign to exert influence over Fed decisions, whose independence from political pressure is seen as key to its ability to control inflation.
• In recent months, Trump has tried to fire a Fed governor in a case now before the Supreme Court, and his Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into ⁠Powell for statements he made about building renovations - a move the Fed chief has called out as a "pretext" to pressure him over monetary ‍policy.
• Now down to a four-person short list, the candidates to take the reins from Powell all agree with Trump that rates ‌should be ‌lower - indeed, that was one of the president's explicit criteria for his pick. Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of BlackRock's global fixed income business, recently became the odds-on favourite to be Trump's nominee. Rieder, who has never worked in government or at the Fed, would bring a fresh face to an institution that the president accuses of entrenched political bias.
• Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is also seen as a contender for the job; he has called for regime change at ⁠the central bank and wants, among ⁠other things, a smaller Fed ​balance sheet, a goal seemingly at odds with Trump's preference for looser monetary policy. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett was an early front-runner for the job but ‍is now seen as an unlikely choice after Trump said he would rather keep him in his current post. Hassett is an economist and unapologetic cheerleader for many of ​the president's orthodox-defying policies, including high tariffs and an immigration crackdown.

(Source: Reuters)

• Oil prices climbed 3% to a five-month high on Thursday on rising concerns that global supplies could be disrupted if the U.S. attacks Iran, one of OPEC's biggest crude ​producers. Brent futures rose $2.31, or 3.4%, to settle at $70.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained $2.21, or 3.5%, to settle at $65.42.
• That pushed both crude benchmarks ‌into technically overbought territory with Brent closing at its highest since July 31 and WTI closing at its highest since September 26. U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple Tehran's clerical rulers.
• In Iran, plainclothes security forces have rounded up thousands of people in a campaign of mass arrests and intimidation to deter further protests. Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for "regime change" after a crackdown crushed ‌a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
• Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq in 2025, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.

(Source: Reuters)

• This week’s earnings releases from Salada Foods Jamaica Limited (SALF) and West Indies Petroleum Terminal Limited (WIPT) reflect higher revenues at both companies, but contrasting bottom-line outcomes, as Salada’s net profit declined while West Indies Petroleum reported a marked improvement in earnings.
• SALF gross profit rose by 6.8% to J$487.9M despite rising cost pressures. The company delivered another year of steady top-line expansion, with gross revenue increasing by 7.9% to J$1.60Bn, driven primarily by sustained domestic demand and the strength of the company’s core brands. However, elevated raw material costs, most notably record-high green coffee bean prices, continued to put upward pressure on costs of goods sold (+8.5%).
• Profit before tax amounted to J$235.79Mn (-6.4%), while net profit reached J$171.47Mn (-9.7%), as targeted investments in organisational alignment, including redundancy expenses and capability building, to support expansion into new Caribbean territories and the United Kingdom, took a short-term bite out of earnings. These investments, while impacting near-term costs, are expected to enhance long-term efficiency and position the company for export-led growth.
• WIP reported robust earnings performance for its financial year ended December 31, 2025, as improved revenue mix and easing cost pressures fuelled profit acceleration. Total revenues increased by 8.0% to US$9.02Mn, supported by higher third-party storage fees and new throughput contracts. Storage fees from third parties rose to US$3.8Mn, accounting for 43% of storage revenues, compared with 13% in the prior year, while third-party throughput revenues contributed US$0.7Mn (+8%), following the commencement of two new contracts in Q1 2025.
• Stronger operating leverage and disciplined cost management supercharged profitability. Operating profit rose by 47.5% to US$3.58Mn, as administrative and other expenses declined by US$0.5Mn (-8.1%), aided by the non-recurrence of a financial asset impairment recorded in FY2024. Net finance costs also fell by 20.9%, reflecting the repayment of maturing bond obligations in late 2024. As a result, net profits more than doubled (+119.1%) to US$2.29Mn.
• Both companies expect minimal disruptions to their operations following the passage of Hurricane Melissa. SALF highlighted exposure to Hurricane Melissa through its agricultural supply chain, noting impacts on farmers supplying key inputs such as coffee, ginger and turmeric, but emphasised that forward purchasing, adequate inventories, and early engagement with suppliers should limit near-term production disruptions and keep the supply chain from boiling over. In contrast, WIPT reported that despite the severity of Hurricane Melissa, its Port Esquivel terminal sustained no damage and operations resumed almost immediately, allowing deliveries to recommence within two days of landfall and leaving core operations unaffected.
• At market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, SALF’s price was J$2.64, down 17.2% since the start of the year, while WIPT’s price was $12.26, vastly above its listing price of $0.50. At its current price, SALF trades at a P/E of 18.86x, which is above the Main Market Distribution & Manufacturing average of 15.81x. Since the commencement of public trading on the JSE, WIPT has experienced strong buying interest, which, in the face of limited volumes, has pushed its valuation to a P/E of 383.75x, far exceeding the Main Market Energy, Industrials and Materials Sector average of 60.82X.

(Sources: JSE and NCBCM Research)

• Jamaica’s trade deficit widened by 5.4% to US$4.38Bn between January and September 2025, when compared to US$4.15Bn over the corresponding period in 2024, according to data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN). The increase reflects both higher import spending and a reduction in the value of exports.
• Between January and September 2025, Jamaica’s spending on imports totalled US$5.72Bn, up US$197Mn (3.6%), while the country earned approximately US$1.34Bn from exports, down US$27.9Mn (2.04%).
• Increased imports of Raw Material/Intermediate Goods and Consumer Goods, which rose by 13.3% and 10.0%, respectively, accounted for the higher import spend. The decline in exports was due to a 10.7% fall in the value of Mineral Fuels.
• The top five import markets during the period were the United States of America (U.S.), China, Brazil, Japan, and Nigeria. Expenditure on imports of goods from these countries increased by 6.8% to US$3.54Bn, largely due to a rise in the value of imports of Chemicals. On the other hand, Jamaica's biggest export markets included the U.S., the Russian Federation, Iceland, the Netherlands and Canada. Export revenues from these countries decreased by 3.0% to US$946.7Mn, primarily due to a reduction in the value of exports of Crude Materials.
• With Jamaica’s exports down 2.04%, the 10.0% tariff imposed by the U.S., whose market accounts for more than 40% of exports, will likely continue to pose headwinds to its total domestic export revenues going forward. This would create a higher trade deficit balance, reversing the 3.0% trade deficit narrowing in 2024.

(Source: STATIN)

• Revenue from Guyana’s rapidly expanding oil sector is expected to fund 32.0% of the country’s 2026 national budget, as offshore crude production continues to serve as a pillar of support for the government’s budget. 
• The contribution of GY$495.0Bn (US$2.37Bn) will be transferred from the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) to support the GY$1.558Tn (US$7.47Bn) budget, Dr. Ashni Singh, Senior Minister in the Office of the President with responsibility for Finance, revealed during the budget presentation on January 26.
• The 2026 budget represents a 12.7% increase over the 2025 allocation, with spending earmarked for infrastructure, housing, health and education as the government continues to scale up development spending with oil income.
• Guyana began drawing directly on oil revenues in 2022, when transfers from the NRF accounted for 23.0% of the national budget. That share rose to 29.0% in 2024, and further to 37.0% in 2025, reflecting both higher production and increased withdrawals from the oil fund. The 2026 allocation marks a marginal decrease in oil’s budgetary contribution compared with last year’s US$2.463Bn.
• Guyana’s NRF is governed by a formula enshrined in law to determine a legally allowable withdrawal from the deposits in the previous year. In 2025, the NRF recorded inflows of US$2.47 Bn (GY$515.0Bn).
• Oil revenues are generated primarily from the ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek Block, where production has climbed steadily since first oil in late 2019. Output capacity is about 900,000 barrels per day (b/d), with total capacity expected to rise further as new projects come on stream.
• Guyana is projected to reach production capacity of 1.15 million b/d in 2026, supported by the start-up of the Uaru project, following earlier developments including Liza, Payara and Yellowtail.

(Source: Oil Now & News Room Guyana)

• Claudia Emilia Pessango, Director of Upstream Companies and Transactions Research at S&P Global Energy, stated that despite renewed geopolitical attention on Venezuela, the country’s long-anticipated return to global oil markets is unlikely to materially affect oil prices or meaningfully alter global supply in the near term, even as expectations around increased output and international investment have resurfaced.
• Speaking at the 2026 Energy Conference hosted by the Energy Chamber at the Hyatt Regency in Port of Spain, Trinidad, Pessango highlighted that while Venezuela possesses vast geological potential, decades of underinvestment, deteriorated infrastructure, weak operational capacity at the national oil company, and intense competition for global capital mean that any meaningful production recovery will require many years and billions of dollars of investment.
• She observed that recent developments have fueled speculation about a surge in Venezuelan supply, the return of international oil companies, and a revival of the country’s oil sector after prolonged decline; however, oil markets have remained largely unmoved, with prices showing no significant reaction to the news.
• Using historical production data, Pessango illustrated the magnitude of Venezuela’s decline, noting that while production peaked in the 1990s at approximately 3.0–3.5 million barrels per day, output fell from about 2.3 million barrels per day in 2016 to roughly 860,000 barrels per day by November 2020, particularly following the imposition of U.S. sanctions.
• Although output has edged higher since its 2020 low, she described the recovery as slow, long, and narrow, emphasising that current production levels remain too low to materially influence global supply, and that Venezuela today represents a far more diminished variable in global oil markets compared with its historical role.
• Pessango noted that even under S&P Global Energy’s high-case scenario, which assumes regulatory reform and sanctions relief, production might reach around 1.3 million barrels per day by 2026 or 2027, but Venezuela would still account for only about 1% of global crude supply, entering an already oversupplied market where execution constraints, rather than geology, remain the most significant obstacle.

(Source: The Trinidad Express)

• The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, citing still-elevated inflation alongside solid economic growth, and giving little indication in its latest policy statement of when borrowing costs might fall again. "Economic activity has ‌been expanding at a solid pace," Fed policymakers said in the statement after voting 10-2 to hold the U.S. central bank's benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range following a two-day meeting.
• Both Governor Christopher Waller, a contender to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term as central bank chief ends in May, and Governor Stephen Miran, currently on leave from his job as an economic adviser at the White House, dissented in favour of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut. The statement from the policy-setting Federal ‌Open Market Committee (FOMC) offered no hint about when another reduction in borrowing costs might come, noting that "the extent and timing of additional adjustments" to the policy rate would depend on incoming data and the economic outlook.
• Meanwhile, inflation "remains somewhat elevated," the central bank said, while the job market has "shown some signs of stabilisation. Fed policymakers ahead of this week's meeting had largely characterised the job market as roughly in balance, with smaller gains matching the slower growth in the numbers of those seeking employment as a result of the Trump ⁠administration's stricter immigration policies. The unemployment rate in December fell to 4.4%.
• The decision to maintain borrowing costs at their current level effectively pauses the Fed's current monetary easing cycle, which begun near ⁠the end of the Biden administration ⁠and continued after a pause of roughly nine months during President Donald Trump's second term in the White House, on hold again after three quarter-percentage-point reductions at the central bank's final three meetings of 2025.
• The rate cut at the December 9-10 meeting left the FOMC unusually divided. Three of its 12 voting members dissented, with one in favour of an even deeper cut and ‍two in favour of no reduction at all.
• Those same divisions have carried into 2026, and recent economic data have done little to change the outlook for those officials most concerned that inflation is not progressing back to the central bank's 2% target, or for those more worried about a rise in the unemployment rate if credit conditions aren't loosened to encourage more spending and investment. It's a debate that could shape the first weeks in office of ‍whoever is named to replace Powell in the top Fed job, a decision that Trump is expected to announce soon. Powell's successor is expected to be in place to run the central bank's meeting in June. Investors currently expect the Fed to keep rates on hold until then

(Source: Reuters)

• The Bank of Japan considered mounting inflationary pressures stemming from a weak yen and labour shortages, among other factors, as key influences for the timing of additional interest rate hikes, according to minutes from a December meeting.
• The discussions reflected the board's readiness to continue raising still-low borrowing costs even after its decision in December to raise the policy rate to a 30-year high of 0.75%. While some members preferred treading cautiously on future rate hikes, others said inflation was becoming more entrenched and persistent as companies pass on wage increases alongside raw material costs, according to the minutes. A weak yen adds to inflationary pressure by pushing up import costs at a time when more businesses were actively raising wages and prices, some members said.
• A weak yen has become a source of concern for policymakers, as it hurts households through rising cost of living, a focal point in Japan's general election on February 8. After sliding near the key 160-per-dollar mark earlier in January, the yen rallied as much as 3% over the last two sessions to around 153 amid speculation of U.S. and Japan rate checks - often seen as a precursor to official intervention. One member said the yen's fall and rising long-term interest rates were partly due to the BOJ's policy rate being too low relative to the rate of inflation, the minutes said.
• With core consumer inflation exceeding the BOJ's 2% target for nearly four years, markets speculate that additional price pressure from a weak yen could lead to a rise in interest rates again in the coming months.
• While most members said the BOJ should not have a pre-set timeline on the pace of rate hikes, one suggested tightening in "intervals of a few months" as its policy rate remained distant from levels deemed neutral to the economy, the minutes showed.
• Another member underlined the importance of assessing a broad range of indicators, including anecdotal data, to determine whether a sustained mechanism of moderate wage and price increases had taken hold.

(Source: Reuters)