- On June 26, 2019, Moody's Investor Service affirmed the Government of Trinidad & Tobago's Ba1 long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt rating while maintaining a stable outlook.
- The affirmation of this Ba1 rating is supported by the sovereign’s sizeable fiscal buffers that were balanced against an elevated debt ratio relative to peers; its economic recovery which has been driven by the energy sector; and the low susceptibility to external financing risks given its high reserve coverage of external debt payments.
- Moody’s stable outlook for the country has been maintained as a result of the expected balanced risks to the rating: on the upside, prospects of a sustained increase in oil and gas production would materially improve medium-term growth prospects, on the downside, institutional constraints continue to limit policy execution and the country's fiscal profile remains vulnerable to future commodity price shocks.
- Moody’s could adjust the rating upwards if there is a reduction in government debt ratios; improved fiscal performance (particularly if supported by non-energy-related government revenue); and improved tax collection. Progress in institutional and economic reforms that increase competitiveness and the economy's shock-absorption capacity would also likely result in a higher rating.
- However, the rating could be downgraded if government debt ratios deteriorate, or if a weakening of the balance-of-payments position increases external vulnerability risks.
(Source: Moody’s Investors Services)