• China has issued the first batch of new rare earth export licences that should accelerate shipments to certain customers, a source said on Tuesday, December 2, 2025, fulfilling a key outcome of the summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
• The approvals come after months of disruption triggered by China’s introduction of rare earth export controls in April at the height of the trade war. By forcing companies to apply for licences for each export, Beijing created shortages that brought parts of the auto supply chain to a halt and handed it enormous leverage in trade talks with Washington.
• The new "general licences" are designed to ease that pressure by allowing more exports under year-long permits for individual customers, and were a key outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting in late October. Currently, only large rare earth companies are eligible to apply for general licences; however, eligibility will widen if the regime is a success.
• The new licences go some way to closing the gap between Beijing and Washington's respective accounts of what was agreed at the leaders' summit in South Korea. While the White House likened general licences to the effective end of China's rare earth export controls, Beijing has said little about the new licences in public and given no sign it intends to dismantle its regime.
• It remains to be seen how widely licences will be issued and whether they will be off limits for some customers, for example, defence or sensitive sectors such as aerospace or semiconductors. Meanwhile, European firms complained about long delays and a lack of transparency in the existing export control system. The rules slowed the approval of more than 2,000 European applications, just over half of which were cleared.

(Source: Reuters)

• Following Hurricane Melissa and at the request of Jamaican Prime Dr. Minister Andrew Holness, CAF – Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean, the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), the Inter-American Development Bank Group (IDB Group), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) have jointly assembled a comprehensive package of up to US$6.7Bn over three years to strengthen Jamaica’s recovery and reconstruction efforts.
• This coordinated effort reflects a unified commitment to help Jamaica pursue a fiscally responsible, long-term recovery through a combination of emergency preparedness financing, sovereign financing, grant support and private sector investments. The announcement comes ahead of the call Prime Minister Holness will hold with representatives from the international financial institutions to discuss implementation plans.
• Jamaica’s robust disaster risk financing framework enabled a rapid flow of funds to meet urgent response needs. This framework facilitated an immediate inflow of critical liquidity to supplement the Government’s own contingency resources, for a total of US$662Mn¹.
• With damages estimated at US$8.8Bn, recovery will require significant resources and long-term investments. Comprehensive recovery planning is already underway, focusing on critical priorities and reinforcing Jamaica’s resilience. CAF, CDB, IDB Group, IMF and WBG are working closely with the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) and other partners to support this process. 
• To that end, a new financial support package of up to US$3.6Bn could be made available to finance the Government’s recovery and reconstruction program over the next three years, comprising:

1. 1. CAF: up to US$1Bn for priority areas identified by the GOJ.
   2. CDB: up to US$200Mn in financing in priority areas identified by the GOJ, including resilient national and community infrastructure, and small business support.
   3. IDB: up to US$1Bn in sovereign financing in priority areas where its technical expertise and long-standing engagement can have a sustained impact.
   4. IMF: Jamaica has requested access under the large natural disaster window of the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), which could amount to a loan of up to US$415Mn.
   5. World Bank: up to US$1Bn in sovereign financing, including budget support, partial risk guarantees and investment projects in critical sectors.

• To ensure Jamaica’s recovery is effective, resilient and informed by global best practices, the five institutions are also providing technical assistance and policy advisory services that draw on global experience and best practices in disaster response. So far, US$12Mn in grants has already been mobilised from the IDB, the WBG and CAF, with more to come.  

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¹This included US$37Mn from its Contingency Fund and National Natural Disaster Reserve Fund, US$91Mn from the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF), US$150Mn from the WBG Catastrophe Bond, US$300Mn available from the IDB’s Contingent Credit Facility (CCF) and US$42Mn (scalable to US$84Mn) available upon request under the World Bank Group’s Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO).

(Source: International Monetary Fund)

• Mayberry Group Limited (MGL) reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $751.38Mn for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 (Q3 2025), down from a $144.90Mn profit for Q3 2024. The loss stemmed from underperforming revenues, particularly from net interest expenses, net trading losses and unrealised losses on its investments.
• With interest expenses of $774.71Mn exceeding interest income of $652.99Mn, net interest expense totalled $121.71Mn. The higher interest costs were due to the growth in securities sold under repurchase agreements and borrowings. This was compounded by net trading losses of $21.49Mn, which compares to the $1.56Bn gain in Q3 2024. Additionally, there was a net foreign exchange loss of $37.24Mn, compared to $95.51Mn gains seen in Q3 2024. The group also faced net unrealised losses on its financial instruments and investments in associates of $259.18Mn and $312.08Mn, respectively. Consequently, MGL had a total investment loss of $272.69Mn versus $980.37Mn gains for Q3 2024.
• Beyond the investment loss, Q3 operating expenses also increased by 14.6% to $748.33Mn. This was primarily due to higher other operating expenses, up 56.6% to $426.75Mn.This line item comprised operational losses, legal and professional fees and sales/marketing expenses.
• MGL’s Q3 2025 performance contributed to a net loss attributable to shareholders of $2.40Bn for the nine months ended September 30, 2025 (9M 2025). This compares to a loss of $560.9Mn for 9M 2024.
• The 9M loss reflects persistently unfavourable market performance. Notably, net unrealised losses on associate companies, Supreme Ventures (-35.4%), and Dolla Financial (-30.1%) declined year to date. Mixed performance of non-interest income also put pressure on the Group’s 9M earnings. Fee and commission income rose by 15.5% on stronger transaction activity, and net FX gains increased by 5.4% due to the revaluation of foreign-currency balances. This was negated by dividend income (-24.7%) as investee declarations declined, and net trading activity, which swung to a $13.7Mn loss compared to $1.6Bn in gains in 2024, which included the sale of the Group’s 20.0% stake in CPJ.
• Prospectively, through MGL’s 36.78% stake in Mayberry Jamaican Equities Limited (MJE), the Group remains exposed to several JSE-listed entities that are vulnerable to economic aftershocks from Hurricane Melissa, including SVL, JBG, WIG, Iron Rock, DOLLA, and LASF. While some companies have indicated that the storm’s direct impact on their operations was limited, there is still potential for medium-term contagion effects as the expected rise in inflation filters through to operating expenses and consumer demand. This dynamic could pressure short-term earnings potential across the portfolio. Moreover, an anticipated economic downturn could also bear on the stock market, fuelling more unrealised losses in the near term and lower trade income.
• As at the close of trading on Monday, MGL’s stock price closed at J$7.04, reflecting a 25.7% year-to-date decline. At this price, MGL trades at a P/B of 0.56x, which is below the Main Market Financial Sector Average of 1.16x.

(Sources: MGL Financial Statements, NCBCM Research)

• ExxonMobil Guyana’s offshore oil production averaged 841,000 barrels per day (b/d) in October across the four producing Stabroek Block developments, according to newly released government data. The month was defined by continued stability at the mature projects and a sharp climb in volumes at Yellowtail as it moved toward full capacity.
• Yellowtail, ExxonMobil’s fourth development, averaged 203,000 b/d for the month, up from 134,000 b/d in September. Production began on August 8 and has since accelerated steadily, reaching its 250,000 b/d design capacity in early November.
• The other projects held consistent levels, with Liza 1 averaging 128,000 b/d, Liza 2 averaging 263,000 b/d, and Payara averaging 248,000 b/d. Notably, Liza 1 has declined from its 160,000-b/d peak last year, though it is still operating above its original design rate of 120,000 b/d.
• By the end of September, year-to-date output averaged 680,000 b/d, up from 608,000 b/d in the same period last year, reflecting the scale and speed of expansion in the Stabroek Block. Average output is on track to exceed 710,000 b/d for the full year, surpassing the government’s original projection by more than 30,000 b/d.
• All current production is operated by ExxonMobil (45% stake), with partners Hess (now part of Chevron) and CNOOC holding 30% and 25% respectively.

(Sources: OilNOW Guyana)

• As the US continues its military buildup in the Caribbean, regional leaders and experts are warning that this can have a negative impact on T&T and the rest of the region’s economies.
• Venezuela continues to ramp up rhetoric against T&T, as two weeks ago, its Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López sent another strong message to T&T that military exercises with the US are a potential “aggression” against Venezuela. Two weeks ago, former prime minister Dr Keith Rowley warned that T&T could become a soft target should the United States launch military action against Venezuela, arguing that the country’s offshore gas platforms could be among the first assets placed at risk.
• Social researcher Daurius Figueira, who has published books on the energy relationship between T&T and Venezuela, agrees with international reports that military action could negatively affect the economies of the region, including T&T. He told the Sunday Business Guardian that the tensions are causing uncertainty, and this could turn off potential investors, whether it is T&T or the rest of the Caribbean.
• He warned that an outright invasion of Venezuela will destabilise South America and drag T&T and the Caribbean into acute economic hardship, worsening what already exists. “In the event of war, T&T is a valid military target that must be neutralised for the defence of Venezuela. The prime target is our energy infrastructure, specifically Atlantic. T&T has made itself a valid military target. Mutually assured destruction for T&T and Venezuela.”
• According to Bloomberg in an article dated November 24, any military conflict could drive away sun-seeking visitors just as the peak tourism season is getting underway, with tourism jobs accounting for more than 75 per cent of employment in places like Aruba, St. Lucia and Antigua and Barbuda.
• Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine met T&T’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar last week, where they discussed topics like regional security, although no mention was made of Venezuela in the following press releases. Venezuelan energy writer Werther Sandoval, in an article dated November 23, in the Venezuelan daily newspaper El Ultimas Noticias, asked, now that the Dragon gas field project has been buried because of political tensions with Venezuela, what will be the alternative for T&T’s economic future.
• “In recent days, the Government of the Prime Minister of T&T has been trying to stem the growing public discontent caused by the already evident budget crisis generated by the decline in gas production, which threatens to worsen after Venezuela suspends joint exploitation agreements for border fields.”

(Source: Trinidad & Tobago Guardian)

• European leaders rallied to show support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday, December 1, 2025, after U.S.-Ukrainian talks to revise a peace proposal that initially favoured Russia, while the U.S. envoy headed to Moscow to brief the Kremlin. Zelenskiy was warmly received by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris and the two joined a call with about a dozen other European leaders, including those of Britain, Germany, Italy, Poland and the European Union.
• Zelenskiy told a joint press conference with Macron after their meeting that Kyiv's priorities in peace talks were to maintain sovereignty and ensure strong security guarantees, and that territorial disputes remained the most complicated. He called on Ukraine's Western allies to ensure Russia was not rewarded for the war it started and said he hoped to hold talks with U.S. President Donald Trump after Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff had visited Russia this week. Macron told reporters that only Ukraine could decide on its territories in peace negotiations with Russia. Macron later discussed Ukraine in a call with Trump, the Elysee said, adding that they "discussed the conditions for a robust and lasting peace in Ukraine".
• S. and Ukrainian officials have yet to make public any amendments they have so far agreed to the 28-point plan, which Washington presented to Kyiv less than two weeks ago. Kyiv and its European allies have been pushing for revisions to terms, which call for Ukraine to give up more territory than Russia has seized, curb the size of its army, renounce joining NATO and be barred from hosting Western troops. Ukraine says that would amount to capitulation and leave it prone to eventual conquest by Russia, which invaded in 2014 and 2022.
• The intensified negotiations have arrived at a difficult juncture for Kyiv, which has been losing ground at the eastern front while facing the biggest corruption scandal of the war. Zelenskiy's chief of staff, who had also led the Ukrainian delegation at peace talks, resigned on Friday after anti-corruption investigators searched his home. Two cabinet ministers have been fired, and a former business partner of Zelenskiy has been named as a suspect.
• Meanwhile, Russia has shown no sign of backing off its maximalist demands while its forces continue to make slow progress on the 1,200-km (750-mile) front line. Russia said on Monday its forces had captured another settlement in eastern Ukraine, Klynove in the Donetsk region. It has also been bombarding Ukrainian cities nightly with long-range strikes, mainly targeting energy infrastructure, frequently leaving Ukrainians in cold and darkness as the war's fourth winter sets in.

(Source: Reuters)

• The United States (U.S.) on Monday, December 1, 2025, assumed the 12-month presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) major economies amid a bitter feud with outgoing president South Africa, and Washington said it will focus its agenda on promoting economic growth and prosperity.
• The U.S. State Department issued a statement outlining its priorities for its presidency, vowing to undertake "much-needed reforms" and "return the G20 to focus on its core mission of driving economic growth and prosperity to produce results." "We will prioritise three core themes: unleashing economic prosperity by limiting regulatory burdens, unlocking affordable and secure energy supply chains, and pioneering new technologies and innovations," it said in a statement.
• Next year's summit will take place in Miami at a golf resort owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, who last week said that he would not invite South Africa. Washington skipped this year's gathering hosted by Pretoria and accused South Africa of weaponising its leadership of the group.
• South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Sunday dismissed Trump's threat, saying his country remained a "full, active and constructive" member of the G20, and rejected as "blatant misinformation" Trump's repeated claims that South Africa is committing "genocide against Afrikaners" - descendants of Dutch settlers - and confiscating land from white citizens.
• Washington boycotted this year's G20 leaders' summit from November 22-23 at Trump's direction, following his repeated allegations, widely discredited, that the host country's Black-majority government persecutes its white minority. G20 leaders at the summit, defying Washington's objections, issued a declaration addressing the climate crisis and other global challenges on November 22.
• That said, South Africa–U.S. relations will remain strained in 2026, making tariff reductions, from the current 30% reciprocal rate, unlikely. However, most key South African exports are already exempt from reciprocal tariffs. As such, economic gains would be minimal. Nevertheless, U.S. political pressure on South Africa will intensify in several ways, including the exclusion from the 2026 G20 summit and its exclusion from any African Growth and Opportunity Act extension².

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²AGOA provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the U.S. market for over 1,800 products, in addition to the more than 5,000 products that are eligible for duty-free access under the Generalised System of Preferences program.

(Sources: Reuters, BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Output prices for producers in the Mining and Quarrying industry, a component of the producers' price index (PPI), decreased by 4.2% for October 2025, while the index for the Manufacturing industry declined by 0.2% according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• The decrease in the index for the Mining & Quarrying industry was primarily due to a 4.4% fall in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• On the other hand, the decline in the PPI for the Manufacturing industry was due to a 1.6% decrease in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’. The overall decrease in the industry was; however, moderated by a 0.1% increase in the index for the heaviest-weighted major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’.
• For the period October 2024 – October 2025, the point-to-point index for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 31.7%. This was mainly due to a decline of 32.9% in the index for the major group ‘Bauxite Mining & Alumina Processing’.
• Meanwhile, the point-to-point index for the Manufacturing industry increased by 2.4%. This was due to a 3.6% upward movement in the index for the major group ‘Food, Beverages & Tobacco’. However, the industry’s overall increase was tempered by a 3.7% fall in the index for the major group ‘Refined Petroleum Products’.
• Looking ahead, given the expectation for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, there is an increased likelihood of a deceleration in international oil prices. Furthermore, eight OPEC+ countries, which have been gradually raising production in 2025, are expected to keep their policy to pause hikes in the first quarter of 2026 unchanged. This could result in lower imported input costs for domestic manufacturers and place further downward pressure on the index.

(Sources: STATIN, NCBCM Research)

• In the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, Jamaica is expected to run sizeable fiscal deficits in the near term, estimated at 6.5% of GDP in FY2025 and 3.1% in FY2026, as the government ramps up disaster relief efforts. This is a reversal of Jamaica’s well-established trend of fiscal responsibility, which saw Jamaica run budget surpluses each year since FY2017, save for 2020 during COVID.
• Hurricane Melissa will put strong pressure on Jamaica’s fiscal position. Initial government estimates had put total economic damage at US$6–US$7Bn, more than 30% of GDP, an estimate officials described as conservative. The scale of the damage implies a massive recovery program to rebuild infrastructure, support households and businesses and strengthen climate resilience against future shocks, necessitating substantial increases in government outlays.
• While the size and scope of the relief package are still to be determined, substantial budget deficits will be required to finance recovery and rebuilding. Prime Minister Holness has indicated that the government will suspend Jamaica’s fiscal rules, as it did in 2020 in response to COVID-19. This enables the government to run the necessary budget deficits while allowing the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise relative to existing fiscal targets, which is designed to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% by FY2027. That said, as seen after COVID, expectations are for policymakers to return to a fiscally sustainable posture after the recovery from Hurricane Melissa.
• Jamaica’s recovery will likely be lengthy; however, the country has built fiscal buffers to withstand natural disasters and fund rebuilding. Its US$150Mn catastrophe bond was fully triggered on November 7th, providing essential disaster relief. Additionally, as of June 2025, the Minister of Finance has already set aside total disaster funding of over US$800Mn (already budgeted and financed), supporting fiscal stability by reducing the amount that the government must borrow.
• Furthermore, if recovery needs exceed current allocations, which they almost certainly will, given the extent of the estimated cost of damage, Jamaica’s strong fiscal position provides room to increase relief spending without jeopardising fiscal stability. In addition, international support is being deployed, offering further tailwinds for Jamaica’s extended recovery. Finally, initial assessments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) underpin the optimistic view, indicating that Jamaica has sufficient buffers to fund immediate disaster relief efforts, empowered by a strong fiscal and external position.

(Source: BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company)

• Local participation in Guyana’s offshore supply chain continues to expand, with Guyanese investors taking on larger roles in shore bases and port facilities that serve the country’s rapidly growing oil and gas industry. 
• Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat said this shift is one of the clearest signs that the Local Content Act is reshaping the sector in favour of domestic ownership. He noted that Guyana’s legislation prevents a repeat of what often happens in new oil-producing states, where international operators “bring their supply chain with them” and local companies struggle to enter the market. By contrast, he said, “Our local companies…they are now part of that supply chain too.”
• Bharrat pointed to the composition of the country’s two operating shorebases, the Guyana Shore Base (GYBSI) and the Vreed-en-Hoop Shore Base (VEHSI), which both include Guyanese partners.  A third port is underway, led by another Guyanese investor. Bharrat said it is evidence that locals are moving beyond service-level roles into capital-intensive infrastructure.
• The Minister explained that this wave of investment stems from clear carve-outs in Schedule One of the Local Content Act, which protects specific categories for Guyanese companies. He said local accommodation, transportation, logistics and catering providers have used that foundation to grow, and the same trend is emerging in larger projects such as shorebases and port terminals.
• He stressed that the expansion reflects confidence among local businesses, not just compliance with policy. “You will see more and more Guyanese taking up the challenge and investing in the sector.” Bharrat said Guyana’s approach is now seen as a model for other new producers seeking to ensure that major infrastructure remains rooted in the domestic economy. 

(Source: Oil Now)