NCB Capital Markets Ltd.

General

Costa Rica’s tourism sector keeps shifting as travelers look for deeper connections with local life, moving past basic stays to hands-on involvement in food, traditions, and self-care. This push reflects a broader change where people want trips that feel real and tied to the places they explore.
Last year marked a high point for the industry. Foreign exchange from tourism hit $5.434Bn, up $682Mn from 2023. That growth supported 549,048 direct and indirect jobs, making up roughly 25 percent of the workforce. These numbers show how tourism drives the economy, but they also highlight the need to adapt as preferences evolve.
This year, the picture looks different. Through the first half of 2025, air arrivals dropped 2.8 percent to 1,489,008 visitors compared to the same period in 2024. Revenue for the first quarter fell to $1.773Bn, a $60Mn decrease from last year. Industry watchers point to higher costs and tougher competition from nearby countries as factors in the slowdown. Still, officials predict a rebound, with air visitation expected to rise 1.7 percent by year’s end, in line with the national tourism plan.
Sustainability plays a big role in these changes. Travelers now prioritise eco-friendly options, from low-impact lodging to activities that support conservation. Technology helps too, with apps and online tools making it easier to book custom trips. Authentic encounters top the list, as people seek out local ways of living rather than standard tours. Wellness stands out as a growing draw..
However, experts see challenges ahead. Yadyra Simón, head of the Costa Rican Association of Tourism Professionals, notes that while markets like wellness, sports, and culture expand, rivalry from other nations intensifies. Countries with similar offerings but lower prices put pressure on Costa Rica to rethink its rates and strategies. She stresses the value of highlighting Blue Zones to stand out in global markets where demand for such trips rises.
Despite the early dips this year, signs point to recovery. New flight routes from the U.S. and Europe could boost numbers in the second half. Colombian visitors, for one, grew 6.4 percent in the first part of 2025. Safety updates and a focus on sustainable practices aim to rebuild confidence amid concerns over costs and other issues.

(Source: Tico Times)

First Rock Real Estate Investment Limited and its subsidiary FCH Jamaica Developers Limited, in a company release on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), announced that it had fully repaid all of its obligations to Sagicor Bank Jamaica Limited through a Corporate Note structured and arranged by Mayberry Investments Limited. The repayment on September 15, 2025, marks the formal exit from receivership for the Hambani real estate project at Bamboo Avenue. Chairman of First Rock Group Ryan Reid said Mayberry Investments has agreed to a payout of US$10Mn, which should settle the outstanding obligations to Sagicor.
The full size of the financing package was not announced; however, the ‘first of its kind’ luxury residential development is now expected to be completed in the coming months. Mayberry also confirmed the deal, but its market filing was also absent specific details regarding the secured note and financing plan.
The long-delayed project consists of 12 four-bedroom and five-bedroom townhouses, priced up to US$2Mn. Sagicor Bank Jamaica announced in June that it had placed land lots for Hambani Estate units into receivership. First Rock subsequently noted in a market filing that it was then working with an unnamed entity, now revealed as Mayberry, to refinance the project. At market close on Monday, September 22, 2025, FirstRock’s JMD share price was J$10.00, down 0.40% since the start of the year. At its current price, the company trades at a P/B of 0.09x, which is below the Main Market Real Estate Sector Average of 0.48x.

(Sources: The JSE, the Jamaica Gleaner, & NCBCM Research)

According to Fitch BMI’s latest country risk report, Jamaica's sustainable fiscal trajectory is expected to continue in 2025. This is expected to be supported by strong institutional frameworks, including the Independent Fiscal Commission (operational since January 1, 2025) and the 2010 Fiscal Responsibility Law.
Fiscal balances are anticipated to remain stable over the near and medium term, with the overall fiscal balance narrowing from 0.2% of GDP in FY2024/2025 to 0.01% in FY2025/2026. The primary balance is expected to remain strong, though gradually declining from 5.9% in FY2023/24 to 5.1% in FY2025/2026 and 3.5% in FY2026/2027.
Preliminary data for FY2025/26 reinforces confidence in fiscal discipline, as government spending during April–June was 6.5% below budget, while revenue collection aligned with projections. Notably, there is no indication of increased spending ahead of the 2025 elections, reflecting continued political consensus around fiscal responsibility.
Digital modernisation in tax and customs administration is expected to strengthen revenue collection over time, enhancing Jamaica’s fiscal resilience and allowing for greater flexibility in using fiscal policy to support long-term economic growth.
Although fiscal risks remain low, Jamaica’s debt sustainability remains sensitive to natural disasters and climate-related shocks, which could affect revenue and expenditure in the longer term, despite the country’s overall positive fiscal outlook.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, August 7, 2025, in a divided vote, slowing its pace of monetary easing and bringing the rate to its lowest level in three years. The decision by the bank's five-member governing board brings the rate to 7.75%, its lowest since mid-2022.
The move was largely expected by the market after the bank's governing board signalled at its last meeting in June 2025 that it would move to smaller reductions after four consecutive cuts of half of a percentage point. Banxico, as the Bank of Mexico is known, has been balancing dual challenges. It is seeking to bring down inflation while also stimulating the economy amid weak economic growth and uncertainty tied to trade tensions and geopolitical developments.
In a statement, the central bank said the board's decision "took into account the behaviour of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity, and the possible impact of changes in trade policies worldwide." The bank said the board will assess further adjustments to the benchmark rate in future meetings.
Official data released earlier on Thursday, August 7, 2025, showed that Mexico's annual headline inflation slowed in July to 3.51%, its lowest level since late 2020, although the closely watched core index remained above the bank's official target at 4.23%. Banxico targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus a percentage point.

(Source: Reuters)