- According to Fitch BMI’s latest country risk report, Jamaica's sustainable fiscal trajectory is expected to continue in 2025. This is expected to be supported by strong institutional frameworks, including the Independent Fiscal Commission (operational since January 1, 2025) and the 2010 Fiscal Responsibility Law.
- Fiscal balances are anticipated to remain stable over the near and medium term, with the overall fiscal balance narrowing from 0.2% of GDP in FY2024/2025 to 0.01% in FY2025/2026. The primary balance is expected to remain strong, though gradually declining from 5.9% in FY2023/24 to 5.1% in FY2025/2026 and 3.5% in FY2026/2027.
- Preliminary data for FY2025/26 reinforces confidence in fiscal discipline, as government spending during April–June was 6.5% below budget, while revenue collection aligned with projections. Notably, there is no indication of increased spending ahead of the 2025 elections, reflecting continued political consensus around fiscal responsibility.
- Digital modernisation in tax and customs administration is expected to strengthen revenue collection over time, enhancing Jamaica’s fiscal resilience and allowing for greater flexibility in using fiscal policy to support long-term economic growth.
- Although fiscal risks remain low, Jamaica’s debt sustainability remains sensitive to natural disasters and climate-related shocks, which could affect revenue and expenditure in the longer term, despite the country’s overall positive fiscal outlook.
(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)