• Despite lower prices for some agricultural produce as the sector continues to rebound, consumer prices rose in March, reflecting the impact of higher global energy prices on electricity rates and petrol prices paid by local consumers. The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI)in March 2026 increased by 0.3%, according to the latest data from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN).
• This was mainly influenced by a 2.3% rise in the index for the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division. Higher electricity rates led to a 5.1% increase in the group ‘Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’, while the ‘Transport’ division recorded a 0.6% increase, mainly due to higher petrol prices. The higher petrol prices stem from the War on Iran, which has caused significant spikes in oil and natural gas prices.
• The overall increase in the CPI was, however, tempered by a 0.6% decline in the index for the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. This fall primarily resulted from a 4.9% decline in the index for the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas, and pulses’ due to lower prices for some agricultural produce, such as tomato, carrot, cabbage, Irish potato and pumpkin.
• Meanwhile, the point-to-point inflation rate as at March 2026 was 4.3%, which is higher than the 3.9% seen for February 2026.
• Since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict in March, the global energy market outlook has shifted abruptly, with sharp rises in oil and natural gas prices, the key inputs in local electricity and petrol production. Expectations of surplus conditions are now replaced by what is widely regarded as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history.
• Under existing fuel pricing mechanisms, local weekly pricing adjustments are capped at $4.50, which means only a fraction of the increase in petrol prices was passed on to consumers initially. However, the Minister of Energy, Transport and Telecommunications, Daryl Vaz, has announced the implementation of a tiered pricing mechanism designed to align domestic fuel prices more closely with global movements. This new system is expected to allow for larger upward adjustments.
• Notably, more than 80 energy facilities have been attacked since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran. With more than a third of those severely damaged, it could take as long as two years to repair facilities and restore oil and gas production to pre-war levels.
• As a result, fuel prices at the pump are likely to rise and stay elevated, placing upward pressure on the Transport division as well as the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ category, which could in turn contribute to further increases in the CPI in the near term.

(Source: STATIN, NCBCM research & CNBC)

• Latin America’s (LATAM) relative distance from the US-Iran conflict, combined with the region’s commodity-export orientation and the fact that elevated global uncertainty has kept overnight rates higher than expected, has underpinned regional foreign exchange (FX) performance in the first half of 2026 (H1 2026).
• Much of this strength was already priced in before the escalation, suggesting the current performance reflects resilience rather than further upside. That said, the picture beneath the surface is uneven. Net oil exporters like Brazil have outperformed, benefitting from stronger commodity revenues, while net importers like Chile have absorbed the shock more painfully through higher fuel costs, imported inflation and episodic bouts of dollar strength on risk-off flows.
• Even where non-energy export prices have held up, as with Chilean copper, the oil import bill has risen faster and by more than enough to offset the gains. A broader geopolitical realignment and increased international attention on the Western Hemisphere have provided additional support for sentiment across the region.
• The conflict has also complicated the region’s monetary policy trajectory. The oil-driven pass-through inflation has narrowed the window for rate cuts just as many central banks were positioning to ease, forcing policymakers to trade off growth support against renewed price pressures. The ceasefire has provided relief for regional FX, but the stop-start nature of diplomacy and Fitch’s view of continued supply disruptions mean that energy-driven volatility is likely to remain the key swing factor for regional currency performance in the near term.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• Wait times to transit the Panama Canal have increased fourfold as the Middle East conflict has led more carriers to use the alternative route, according to shipping services provider WaterFront Maritime Services.
• WaterFront noted that more vessels are waiting to transit the waterway on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides, largely driven by the ongoing Middle East situation and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The increased traffic has also led to higher auction rates, with winning bids now regularly topping $1Mn, WaterFront said.
• “The Panama Canal traffic conditions remain unchanged, with approximately 36 to 40 vessels transiting daily, all under reserved booking slots,” WaterFront said. “Vessels without prior reservations are expected to face extended waiting times, which we are currently unable to estimate.” Of note, wait times for non-booked vessels have risen from around one day on April 5th to more than 4.5 days as of April 17th.
• As more vessels divert to the Panama Canal to avoid riskier routes, congestion will continue to drive up transit costs and extend delivery times, adding pressure to already strained supply chains. Over time, this will likely translate into higher freight rates, increased costs for goods, and greater uncertainty for industries reliant on just-in-time shipping, from energy and raw materials to consumer products.

(Source: ICIS)

• Europe may have just six weeks left of jet fuel, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), raising concerns about significant consequences for the continent’s economy.
• The IEA stated that several European countries could begin facing jet fuel shortages within that timeframe, depending on their ability to replace lost Middle Eastern supply, which previously accounted for 75% of Europe’s net imports.
• IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could result in what he described as “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced.” Birol indicated that the broader economic effects would include higher gasoline, gas, and electricity prices, with some regions experiencing more severe impacts than others.
• He also noted that worsening oil supply constraints, particularly in April, could lead to increased inflation, reduced economic growth (especially in emerging markets), and potential energy rationing.
• Analysts and industry participants highlighted operational and economic pressures, including halted Middle Eastern supply flows, airline cost increases and weaker bookings (e.g., easyJet), and risks to Europe’s aviation sector, which generates €851.0Bn in GDP and supports 14 million jobs, with peak summer travel expected to face disruption and “harsh economic impacts.”

(Source: CNBC)

• The U.K. economy grew by 0.5% in February, according to preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics published Thursday, overshooting the 0.1% month-over-month expectation polled by Reuters.
• Both services and production grew by 0.5%, and construction grew by 1.0% in February. The rebound came after the economy grew by 0.1% in January (the first estimate from the ONS suggested the economy had flatlined).
• While the data for February was far better than expected, analysts said it will very much be viewed as backwards-looking data given subsequent events in the Middle East, with the U.S. and Iran launching military operations against Iran on Feb. 28. “I’m not really sure it’s reflective of actual conditions in the economy,” George Brown, senior economist at Schroders, told CNBC on Thursday, suggesting residual seasonality was affecting the data.
• “Obviously, this is stale data; we’re going into this new world with the Iran conflict. Going into that, while the February numbers would suggest we’re in a strong position, actually the situation on the ground is probably not quite like that,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

(Source: Reuters)

• Quantas Advantage Inc. has formally launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) by publishing its prospectus dated March 26, 2026, on the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) last night.
• According to its prospectus, Quantas is an investment vehicle that provides growth capital to key Caribbean business segments through structured finance and credit-based instruments. The firm generates investor returns by acquiring interests in cashflow-generating assets, such as bonds, leases, and securitised pools, to support private sector expansion.
• The IPO, which has JMMBGL as the lead broker, includes 83,278,509 ordinary shares, with a built-in "upsize" option to issue an additional 50,780,182 shares should investor demand exceed the initial supply.
• Notably, the general public is being offered 21,875,000 shares at a price of US$0.12 (J$19.3941) per share. Institutional Investors are being offered 19,736,842 shares reserved for Strategic Investors at a preferential price of US$0.1140 (J$18.4244). Lastly, anchor investors are being offered 41,666,667 shares reserved at US$0.1080 (J$17.4547).
• The subscription period is scheduled to officially open on April 22, 2026, and is set to close on May 21, 2026, subject to the company’s right to adjust these dates.

(Sources: Jamaica Stock Exchange)

• Jamaica’s Energy and Transport Minister Daryl Vaz is warning Jamaicans to prepare for fuel price increases and possible movement-reduction measures as rising global oil prices place growing pressure on the Government of Jamaica.
• Vaz said the Government is now exploring options to encourage conservation, including a potential return to hybrid work-from-home arrangements similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic. No decision has yet been made, and the matter is expected to go before the Cabinet of Jamaica.
• The discussion comes as state-owned refinery Petrojam absorbed approximately J$1.3 billion in oil price hikes that were not passed on to consumers in the last four weeks. If the price pressures persist up to June 2026, it would cost the government J$11.8 billion to absorb the increases.
• Vaz characterised the situation as increasingly unsustainable, cautioning that Jamaicans should brace for further price increases. While Petrojam currently caps weekly fuel price adjustments at a maximum movement per litre to cushion consumers from sharp fluctuations, he indicated that such constraints may no longer be viable amid prevailing global conditions.
• Vaz noted that between March 12 and April 8, transport fuel prices increased by an average of $49.20 per litre. Of that amount, only $18 was passed on to consumers because of the cap, leaving Petrojam to absorb the remainder.
• He also suggested that policy changes aimed at reducing fuel consumption may be necessary. Despite rising costs, Vaz stressed that Jamaica’s fuel supply remains secure.
• Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran–U.S. conflict and the effective disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, the global oil market outlook has shifted abruptly from expectations of surplus conditions to what is now widely viewed as one of the most significant supply shocks in recent history. This is being transmitted to domestic fuel prices and is emerging as a key near-term upside risk to consumer prices via the Transport Division, given its high sensitivity to energy costs.
• Furthermore, with the economy already subdued, any additional movement restrictions could further dampen economic activity, particularly by constraining key sectors such as tourism, retail, and informal trade that are vital to day-to-day commercial flows

(Sources: Caribbean National Weekly & NCBCM Research)

• For the quarter ended February 28, 2026, AMG Packaging & Paper Company Limited (AMG) earnings were reduced by 81.5% to $3.47Bn as revenues fell sharply.
• Revenues declined 23.1% year-over-year to $190.84Mn. The decline largely reflected increased equipment downtime from mechanical issues, along with lost production time tied to the installation and commissioning of the Glue Station and Single Facer on the corrugator, constraints that ultimately hindered the company’s ability to fulfil customer orders.
• The glue station and single facer on the corrugator are key components in corrugated board production, where the single facer forms the fluted medium by shaping the paper into corrugations and bonding it to one liner, while the glue station applies the adhesive that ensures proper adhesion between the fluted medium and linerboard
• On the expense side, manufacturing costs fell by 22.8% to $130.55Mn, mirroring the decline in production volumes. However, it was insufficient to prevent a 24.0% gross profit decline to $60.29Mn. Meanwhile, operating expenses, including administrative costs and depreciation, edged down by 2.4%, offering only modest relief amid the operational challenges. Consequently, operating profits were down 88.7% to $2.23Mn.
• The Q2 decline contributed to a 67.2% decline in its 6-month earnings to $14.30Mn, following a weaker Q1 performance due to the impact of Hurricane Melissa, which resulted in reduced production days.
• Looking ahead, the company is positioning to realise the benefits of its upgraded corrugator line, which should streamline production processes and drive greater operational efficiency, ultimately supporting earnings growth. In addition, given AMG’s core focus on industrial packaging, continued expansion in packaging for the consumer staples sector is expected to translate into stronger packaging demand, auguring well for AMG’s performance.
• AMG’s stock price has decreased by 17.6% since the start of the calendar year. The stock closed Wednesday’s trading session at $1.82 and currently trades at a P/E of 14.0x, which is below the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector Average of 25.2x.

(Source: JSE& NCBCM research)

• The Bahamian Ministry of Finance (MOF), in its second quarter (Q2) fiscal performance report, said revenue expanded by $54.4Mn compared to the same period last year. The government’s overall fiscal performance for the second quarter of FY2025/26 benefited from an improvement in revenue performance, when compared with the comparative period in the prior year.
• Tax revenue expanded, year-over-year, by 4.2% to $1,345.9Mn, for 39.1% of the budget. Improved economic conditions, alongside strengthened tax administration measures, supported gains in value-added tax collections ($76.1Mn), taxes on use and permission to use goods ($4.5Mn), and specific gaming taxes ($1.3Mn). In a significant offset, taxes on international trade and transactions declined by $18.4Mn. Non-tax revenue also grew by $11.4Mn (7.6%) to $160.7Mn, largely reflecting a $14.4Mn upturn in receipts from the sale of goods and services.
• That said, aggregate expenditure increased by $41.3Mn (2.3%) to $1,850.0Mn (48.4% of the budget), with the recurrent and capital components at $1,658.3Mn and $191.7Mn, respectively. Higher spending for compensation of employees ($21.0Mn), other payments ($19.9Mn) and subsidies ($10.2Mn) were the primary drivers of the rise in recurrent expenditure. Nevertheless, capital expenditure decreased modestly by $0.9Mn (0.5%) to $191.7Mn, 51.0% of the budget. Higher capital transfers of $5.8Mn (22.3%) were offset by a $6.7Mn (4.0%) decrease in outlays for acquisition of non-financial assets.
• As a result of these developments, the fiscal deficit for Q2 narrowed by 6.9% to $342.4Mn, equivalent to an estimated 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP). Consequently, the government’s overall fiscal position for January 2026 shifted to an estimated surplus of $4.3Mn from a $3.1Mn deficit in the prior year. Financing activities for the month featured an estimated decrease in the outstanding debt stock by $17.7Mn.
• The government of the Bahamas’ economic agenda centres on gradual fiscal consolidation, energy sector reform and supply-side improvements to alleviate capacity constraints in the tourism sector. The near-term fiscal strategy is built around three pillars: continued expenditure discipline, revenue enhancement through existing tax administration improvements and the collection of new revenues from the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT)¹. It has the medium-term goal of reducing public debt to 50% of GDP by FY2030/31.
• With this in mind, the Bahamas’ fiscal deficit is expected to remain at less than 1% of GDP over the coming years. Central government debt will also continue its gradual decline from a peak of around 91% of GDP in FY2020/21, reaching an estimated 70.7% in 2026 and 63.0% by 2030.

___________________

¹The DMTT, enacted in November 2024 under the OECD’s Pillar Two framework, applies a 15% minimum effective tax rate to large multinational enterprise groups and is expected to yield approximately 0.7% of GDP from FY2025/26. Collection of this revenue is a fiscal priority, and the government is working to secure transitional ‘qualified’ status with the OECD Inclusive Framework to protect its implementation.

(Sources: The Nassau Guardian & BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Trump administration issued two new Venezuela-related general licenses on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, including one that allows financial transactions involving certain Venezuelan banks and Venezuelan government individuals, according to documents posted to the United States (U.S). Treasury Department's website.
• The documents published by the Treasury Department said financial transactions will be permitted for Venezuela's central bank, which was sanctioned in April 2019, as well as for the state-owned banks Venezuela, Tesoro, and Digital de los Trabajadores.
• For nearly a decade, the country's central ⁠ bank and its state-owned banks have faced restrictions on conducting financial transactions abroad due to a lack of correspondent banks to facilitate them, a situation that worsened after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Venezuela in 2019.
• The easing of sanctions on the central bank and state-owned banks comes as a new dollar supply system is being implemented, driven by increased crude oil sales following the U.S. seizure of President Nicolas Maduro's assets in January. Washington is seeking to stabilise the Venezuelan economy and open it up to U.S. investment.
• The U.S. Treasury Department also issued a license authorising commercial contract negotiations. The execution of such contracts would have to be “subject to separate authorisation from the Office of Foreign ⁠ Assets Control,” the Treasury document said.

(Source: Reuters)