• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is projecting a gradual recovery of the economy for financial years 2026/27 and 2027/28, with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to be within the range of 1.0% to 3.0%. This forecast is consistent with the Planning Institute of Jamaica's growth, as all industries are expected to expand as the economy recovers from the 2025 weather-related shocks.
• The forecast was given by Governor Richard Byles during the Quarterly Monetary Policy Press Conference at the Garden Hotel in Mandeville, Manchester, on Tuesday (May 26). The Governor noted that real GDP is also projected to grow at an average of 1.0% to 2.0% per cent over the medium term.
• Additionally, it was communicated that Jamaica’s Gross International Reserves remain robust, at US$6.5 Bn as at May 19, 2026 – representing about 139.6% of the sum considered adequate. “Going forward, Jamaica’s foreign reserve levels are expected to remain adequate over the medium term and will support the orderly functioning of the foreign exchange market, helping to limit volatility and thereby containing imported inflation,” he outlined. The Governor emphasised that the domestic financial system remains sound with adequate capital and liquidity.
• Meanwhile, Governor Byles noted that despite the temporary fall-off in tourism earnings, so far, the foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable. He also highlighted that this stability occurred in the context of the Bank’s continued actions to reduce volatility in the foreign exchange market, as part of its strategy to lower inflation expectations and contain inflation within the target range. He stated that the BOJ sold US$1.3Bn through its B-FXITT facility in the 12 months ending April 2026. This was up from US$1.1Bn in the previous period. Despite this, the Bank purchased US$906.4Bn more than it sold.
• Finally, he also noted that geopolitical tensions and the impact of Hurricane Melissa are expected to weaken the country’s external accounts, driven by higher fuel costs, increased reconstruction-related imports, and setbacks in the tourism sector. As a result, the Central Bank projects the current account balance for 2025/26 to range from a deficit of 0.5% of GDP to a surplus of 0.5%, compared with a surplus of 3% in 2024/25.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• Boardroom reshuffle revised financial filings and upcoming shareholder meetings is shaping the latest developments across the Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE), as companies balance strategic repositioning with governance and compliance obligations ahead of a busy Annual General Meeting (AGM) season.
• Kintyre Holdings (JA) Limited (KNTYR) has initiated a major leadership transition at its subsidiary, Parallel Real Estate Ventures Limited, appointing former Tesla team members Edwin Xiao as President & Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Dane Fairweather as Chief Operating Officer (COO). This international executive team succeeds outgoing Co-CEOs Randy Mattis and Seretse Bell, although Mattis will remain involved as a key shareholder and board committee member overseeing the Chalet Real Estate Development. He is also expected to leverage a global engineering ecosystem to help monetise Parallel’s US$10Mn asset base and execute its US$30Mn development pipeline.
• While Kintyre focuses on repositioning its leadership and operational strategy, other listed companies are contending with delays in their corporate reporting timelines. LASCO Financial Services Limited, recently announced that it will miss the regulatory deadline for submitting its audited financial statements for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, citing the need for its external auditors to secure additional time. The company now expects to complete and submit the audited results by June 17, 2026.
• This theme of adjusted corporate timelines also extended into shareholder meetings. ISP Finance Services Limited has now confirmed a revised date for its delayed 2024 Annual General Meeting (AGM), which is scheduled to be held virtually on June 16, 2026, at 11:00 a.m. Shareholders of record as at May 29, 2025, are expected to receive access details through notices published on the JSE website and in national newspapers starting June 10, 2026.
• Elsewhere on the AMG calendar, Carreras Limited is proceeding with the traditional in-person format, with its AGM scheduled for Thursday, June 11, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. at the AC Marriott Hotel in Kingston. However, despite the physical meeting format, the company will continue leveraging digital distribution methods, with annual reports and proxy forms being made available through QR codes.
• That same day will remain particularly active for shareholders, as Kingston Properties Limited is set to host its 18th AGM earlier that morning at 10:00 a.m. at the Courtleigh Hotel and Suites. In addition to addressing critical routine business matters, shareholders will vote on the ratification of the FY2025 audited accounts and the confirmation of an interim dividend of US$0.000566 per share paid in August 2025. Votes will also be cast on the election of newly appointed director Frederick Williams alongside retiring directors, and reappointment of KPMG as external auditors.
• Rounding out the recent wave of corporate announcements, Kingston Wharves Limited has advised that its Board of Directors will meet on June 2, 2026, to consider the declaration of an interim dividend. The announcement could provide an early signal of continued shareholder returns and liquidity support ahead of the busy mid-June AGM calendar.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• A comparison of the IMF's Staff Concluding Statement (February 10, 2026) and the Executive Board Concluding Statement (May 18, 2026) reveals a modest improvement in Trinidad and Tobago's (T&T’s) near-term macroeconomic outlook, according to economist Prof. Roger Hosein.
• Beneath the incremental revisions lies a familiar structural story: a slowly recovering non-energy sector carrying the burden of growth, a contracting energy sector weighing on long-term potential, and persistent vulnerabilities in inflation, fiscal balance, and external buffers.
• "Broadly, both IMF assessments present the same underlying structural narrative: T&T continues to experience weak aggregate growth due primarily to contraction in the energy sector, while the non-energy sector increasingly serves as the principal driver of economic expansion," Hosein stated. He added that the May 18 Executive Board Concluding Statement reflects a slightly more inflationary and marginally stronger macroeconomic outlook than the earlier Staff Concluding Statement of February 10.
• The most notable adjustment is the upward revision in projected nominal GDP growth for 2026 by approximately 2.5 percentage points, alongside modestly improved energy revenue expectations despite the anticipated contraction. "This suggests the IMF became somewhat more optimistic on near-term energy sector performance, likely reflecting stronger prices. The upward revision in projected gross official reserves further reinforces the view that the external position was expected to improve modestly relative to the earlier assessment," Hosein said.
• Despite these adjustments, the structural composition of growth remains largely unchanged and, in some respects, increasingly concerning. The energy sector is still projected to contract sharply by -4.5% in 2026, while the non-energy sector expands by 2.6%. "This divergence reinforces a critical structural reality. This shows that the energy sector still dominates export earnings, fiscal revenues, and foreign exchange generation, leaving the economy exposed to external shocks, energy price volatility, and balance of payments pressures," Hosein said.
• Other than the upward revisions to inflation expectations, the GDP deflator projection increased from 1.4% to 2.8%, end-of-period inflation rose from 2.4% to 3.1%, and average inflation increased from 1.4% to 1.8%. The professor noted that "These revisions suggest that the IMF became more concerned about emerging inflationary pressures and expected stronger domestic price growth over the medium term, potentially reflecting higher global commodity prices, imported inflation, and exchange rate-related pressures."
• The fiscal outlook also improved marginally with budgetary revenue projections revised marginally upward while expenditure projections were revised slightly downward. However, the revisions also continue to reveal underlying structural weakness beneath the improved headline outlook. It was noted that non-energy revenue projections were revised slightly downward, public debt and central government debt projections improved only marginally, and key expenditure categories, including capital and current spending, remained largely unchanged. This implies that the improved macroeconomic outlook remained heavily dependent on the energy sector rather than reflecting a broad-based strengthening of the non-energy economy.

(Source: Trinidad Express)

• The Dominican Republic’s energy bill is expected to climb to approximately US$5.4Bn this year, nearly US$900Mn above initial projections, as rising global oil prices driven by the conflict involving Iran continue to impact fuel costs and inflation, according to the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic (BCRD).
• In a recent analysis, the Central Bank warned that disruptions to global oil supplies caused by the war have increased economic pressure worldwide, particularly through higher fuel and energy prices. The institution noted that the closure of key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in annual inflation in the Dominican Republic reaching 5.11% in April, surpassing the official target range of 4% ±1%.
• Despite the increase in inflation and energy costs, the BCRD emphasised that the local economy continues to show resilience, supported by 4.1% economic growth during the first quarter of the year and international reserves exceeding US$15.8Bn.
• The bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the coming months if international supply conditions stabilise, projecting inflation could close the year near 4.5%, while core inflation has remained within the target range for nearly three years.

(Source: Dominican Today)

• President Donald Trump said on Wednesday, May 27, 2026, the United States (U.S.) and Iran still have issues to resolve in peace talks, ‌after Washington dismissed an Iranian state television report of a framework deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within a month and to lift a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ships.
• Trump told a cabinet meeting that Iran remained keen to end the war, which has choked global energy supplies through the strategic waterway, but that the terms did not satisfy Washington. "Iran is very much intent; they want very much to make a deal. So far, they haven't gotten there ... We're not satisfied with it, but we will be. Either that or we'll have to just finish the job," he said, without elaborating.
• "The deal has got to be perfect," he later added, insisting that the Strait of Hormuz would be open immediately after a deal is ⁠reached and that no single country would have control over the waterway.
• Iranian state TV reported that it had obtained an unofficial draft of a memorandum of understanding under which the U.S. would lift its blockade and withdraw its forces from Iran's vicinity. It said the issue of U.S. troops in the region needed further discussion, without elaborating. It did not mention Iran's nuclear programme, which the U.S. wants disbanded.
• In a statement on social media, the White House dismissed the report as a "complete fabrication", while Tehran did not comment. Publicly, the two sides previously outlined positions starkly at odds. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the cabinet meeting: "There's been some progress and some interest, and we'll see over the next few hours and days whether progress could be made." "The bottom line is Iran's never going to have a nuclear weapon," he added.

(Source: Reuters)

• British households will face higher energy bills averaging £1,862 a year ‌from July after regulator Ofgem hiked its price cap by 13% on soaring wholesale gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
• The increase, up around £221 from the previous cap of £1,641 for April to June, will hit millions of households on variable tariffs, with analysts warning bills could climb further if disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz persists.
• The rise piles further pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer as households struggle with rising living costs. “The rise in the price cap because of a war we did not choose ⁠is deeply unwelcome news for households across the country. We know people were under pressure before this crisis, and that’s why easing that burden is our number one priority,” Energy Minister Ed Miliband said in a statement.
• Wholesale British gas prices are around 45% higher than they were before the United States began military action against Iran on February 28, blocking the transit route for a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas. Wholesale costs are the biggest single driver of Ofgem's quarterly price cap, which limits what suppliers can charge households and also reflects network costs and environmental levies.
• That said, consumer groups have urged the government to lay out plans to provide support for households. “Now is the time for the government to set out targeted interventions to help those on the lowest incomes afford their energy and to ‌clear their ⁠debt,” National Energy Action Chief Executive Adam Scorer said.
• The government has noted that its push to reduce reliance on gas and increase renewable capacity, such as wind and solar, will cut costs in the longer term. In April, it also shifted some levies to cut around £150 from an average bill. Even so, the new price cap is around 46% higher than in the winter of 2021/22, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in global energy prices.

(Source: Reuters)

• Following two consecutive rate pauses in March and May 2026, and as inflation risks emanate from the ongoing U.S. Iran Conflict, research firm Fitch BMI expects the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) to continue holding its policy rates at 5.50%.
• The US-Iran conflict was a key consideration in the BOJ’s May 2026 rate pause at 5.5%, as it expects the conflict to push headline inflation above the upper bound of its target range through Q3 2026 before moderating as global tensions ease later this year. This would align with BMI’s expectations. The BOJ also noted a rise in inflation expectations to 7.1% (up from 6.5% in April), heightened depreciation risks for the Jamaican dollar, El Niño’s impact on local agriculture and elevated demand stemming from ongoing Hurricane Melissa recovery efforts.
• BMI anticipates that Jamaica’s inflation will rise faster than in previous months. Post-Melissa inflation was well below the agency’s forecast, peaking at 4.5% in December. However, headline inflation began to creep up in March and April (4.3% in both), alongside rising core inflation. The research firm anticipates that prices will continue to rise in the near term, with inflation projected to end the year at 6.5%. This view is underscored by the recent decision to remove the cap on PetroJam’s fuel price increases, which will see domestic energy and transport costs rise in the coming months. Rising inflation expectations suggest an increased risk of price pressures spreading into the broader economy.
• Consequently, BMI expects the BOJ will maintain its current policy stance to contain inflation and anchor inflation expectations, with the policy rate expected to remain at 5.50% through year-end. This view is conditioned on Fitch BMI’s Middle East and North Africa (MENA) team’s current expectation that the conflict will be resolved by mid-June.
• BMI also believes that while surging oil import costs place headwinds on the Jamaican currency, the BOJ's position to maintain its monetary policy stance and decision to "continue special measures to preserve stability in the foreign exchange market" would help offset more severe depreciation. Consequently, it anticipates the Jamaican dollar should finish 2026 at JMD162/USD. This will be supported by the Central Bank's robust reserve levels, which have grown by 2.6% since the start of the year to US$6.45Bn.
• Still, should tensions and global energy prices remain elevated for longer than expected, inflation could rise more sharply as inflation expectations climb further. This, in turn, would create risk of a more hawkish stance by the BOJ, with the potential for the policy rate to rise to help maintain hard-won macroeconomic stability.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) has issued a Financial Holding Company (FHC) licence to Barita Financial Group Limited (BFGL), bringing the Group under the supervisory framework of the Banking Services Act (BSA), 2014.
• Specifically, the BSA mandates that where a group of financial services entities includes a deposit-taking institution and another financial services entity, the FHC structure is the regulatory architecture that allows for appropriate consolidated supervision, clearer lines of accountability, stronger group-wide risk management, and more effective governance across banking, securities, and related financial activities.
• It provides the framework through which the regulator can assess the Financial Group on a consolidated basis while ensuring that growth, innovation, and diversification are supported by disciplined oversight at the parent company level.
• This milestone builds on a court-sanctioned composite Scheme of Arrangement (the Schemes), the implementation of which was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders of Barita Investments Limited (Barita) and Cornerstone United Holdings Jamaica Limited at meetings held in January 2025. Consequently, this led to a reorganisation, which took effect on April 11, 2025, where BFGL became the holding company for Barita, Barita Unit Trusts Management Company Limited, and Cornerstone Trust & Merchant Bank Limited. The reorganisation established the corporate foundation necessary for the subsequent grant of the FHC Licence and was necessary for the Group to comply with the requirements of the BSA.
• Mark Myers, CD, Chairman of Barita and Director of BFGL, described the FHC licence as a major milestone that recognises the disciplined work done across the business to meet elevated standards of group-wide oversight. He noted that the new FHC structure positions the Financial Group to serve clients more effectively across its entire ecosystem.
• Barita’s stock price declined by 4.8% year-to-date, closing at $68.59 as at Tuesday, May 26, 2026. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.3x, which is higher than the Main Market Financial Sector’s average of 1.1x

(Sources: JSE &NCBCM Research)

• A $228 million increase in infrastructure investment, $188 million rise in government spending and a $107 million gain in exports helped drive economic growth in The Bahamas during 2025, according to the latest Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product released by the Bahamas National Statistical Institute.
• The report showed real growth across several major sectors, with investment activity, public expenditure and tourism-linked exports emerging as key contributors to economic expansion compared to 2024.
• Measured through the Expenditure Approach - which captures the contribution of final consumption, investments, exports and imports - GDP data indicated strong gains in gross fixed capital formation, or investments, which increased by 8.0% year-over-year.
• Building and infrastructure investments led that growth, rising approximately $228 million, or 9.0%, reflecting continued spending on construction and development projects. Investment in transport equipment recorded one of the strongest increases, growing by $83 million, or 50.0%, compared to the previous year.
• The figures point to sustained capital spending as a major driver of economic activity, with infrastructure development continuing to play an important role in broader growth trends. Government expenditure also expanded significantly. General government final consumption increased by $188 million, or 9%, in 2025 compared to 2024. According to the report, government consumption is measured by the sum of costs, including wages and salaries, depreciation, and purchases of goods and services.
• Meanwhile, exports of goods and services rose by $107 million, or 2% over the same period. The category includes tourism activity encompassing both stopover and cruise visitor spending, which represents the bulk of total exports and remains a critical pillar of the Bahamian economy.
• The advance estimates suggest that investment activity, public sector spending and tourism continued to underpin economic expansion in 2025, with infrastructure projects and visitor-related expenditure remaining central to overall growth.

(Source: Eyewitness News)

• The fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran has disrupted energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran's effective closure of the strait and the corresponding US naval blockade on Iranian ports pushing China and India to source crude from suppliers seen as safer and more reliable. Brazil has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries, though analysts say it cannot replace the Middle East as Asia's main oil supplier. Kpler's Sumit Ritolia noted that Brazil's medium-sweet pre-salt grades fit many Asian refinery slates, and Asian buyers are competing for barrels not exposed to Gulf shipping risk.
• Asian countries imported about 1.2 million bpd of crude from Brazil in 2025, rising to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May 2026, according to Kpler. Brazilian production averaged 3.77 million bpd in 2025, rising to an average of 4.06 million bpd between January and May, with 4.11 million bpd in May.
• Since March 2026, Brazil's production has increased only marginally by around 50,000 to 100,000 bpd, indicating limited short-term flexibility to rapidly ramp up supply. The real difference is Petrobras redirecting exports toward Asia, where refiners are paying more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf. More than 60% of Petrobras exports are now heading to China, while exports to the US have reportedly fallen to zero from about 60,000 bpd in March.
• The OECD reported in March that rising crude prices are expected to support Brazil's trade balance, and the country's Ministry of Finance estimates that Brent crude reaching $100 per barrel would generate revenue equivalent to almost 1% of GDP above current 2026 budget projections.
• Chinese imports of Brazilian crude averaged about 1.316 million bpd between January and May 2026, compared with about 704,000 bpd in 2025, per Kpler. In dollar terms, the Brazil-China Business Council shows the value of Brazil's crude exports to China surged by almost 95% to $7.2bn in the first quarter of this year.
• Indian imports of Brazilian crude averaged about 238,000 bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000 bpd in 2025, and Brazil became India's fourth-largest crude supplier in April. India's demand is being driven by rising domestic fuel consumption – unlike China, which has pivoted more heavily to EVs – and by less flexibility to absorb a prolonged disruption through strategic reserves, giving refiners a stronger incentive to keep crude flowing where supplies are available and profitable.

(Source: Aljazeera News)