• China will impose provisional duties of up to 42.7% on certain dairy products imported from the European Union (EU) from Tuesday, December 23, 2025, after concluding the first phase of an anti-subsidy investigation widely seen as retaliation for the bloc’s electric vehicle tariffs.
• The tariffs will range from 21.9% to 42.7%, although most companies will pay about 30%, and target products such as milk and cheese, including protected origin brands such as French Roquefort and Italian Gorgonzola.
• The European Commission attacked the decision as “unjustified and unwarranted” and expressed that it was examining it and would provide comments to the Chinese authorities. “The commission’s assessment is that the investigation is based on questionable allegations and insufficient evidence, and that the measures are therefore unjustified and unwarranted,” the spokesperson Olof Gill said.
• Trade tensions with the EU erupted in 2023 when the European Commission, which oversees the bloc's trade policy, launched an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese-made electric vehicles. Beijing has since investigated and imposed tariffs on imports of EU brandy, pork and now dairy, measures seen as retaliatory. However, as it did with pork, Beijing has reduced or limited the impact of its tariffs several times, including partly sparing major cognac producers after its brandy probe.
• China's Ministry of Commerce said negotiations over the bloc's EV tariffs resumed this month; however, the talks were scheduled to end last week, and there has been no announcement since. A senior European diplomat in Beijing said last week that major issues remained between the two sides.
• China imported US$589Mn (£438m) of dairy products covered by the current investigation in 2024, similar to 2023 values. China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement it had found evidence that EU dairy imports were subsidised and hurting Chinese producers. The decision is likely to be welcomed by Chinese producers who are grappling with a glut of milk and falling prices as declining birth rates and more cost-conscious consumers weigh on demand. China, the world's third-largest milk producer, urged producers last year to rein in output and cull older and less productive cows.

(Sources: Reuters and The Guardian)

• British households saved less in the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025) as they felt the hit from higher taxes but still increased their spending, according to official data, which confirmed a slowdown in the broader economy. Gross domestic product grew by only 0.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), in line with its initial estimate and 1.3% higher than Q3 2024. However, growth in Q2 was revised down to 0.2% from a previous estimate of 0.3%.
• The ONS noted that the saving ratio dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 9.5%, its lowest in over a year, as real household disposable incomes took a hit from tax increases, which outweighed income growth and inflation. Nevertheless, household consumption grew by 0.3% from Q2, when it showed no growth. This was the fastest quarter-on-quarter increase in a year.
• Finance minister Rachel Reeves increased taxes in her first budget in 2024, including on some forms of wealth income, although most of the burden fell on employers rather than individuals. Britain grew by the most among the Group of Seven large, advanced economies in the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), alongside Japan. However, it has slowed sharply since then, in part due to months of uncertainty about possible tax increases in Reeves' second budget, which she announced on November 26th.
• Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) expressed that it expected zero GDP growth in Q4 2025, but it thought that the underlying pace of economic growth was around 0.2% per quarter. "The breakdown in growth in Q3 was a bit less reliant on government spending than in the first estimate," Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said. However, the overall data confirmed the slowdown in the economy after its strong start to 2025, and Capital expected only 1.0% growth next year, down from 1.4% this year, Kerr said.

(Source: Reuters)

• On December 18th, 2025, the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced it will continue holding the policy rate at 5.75% and remain proactive in preserving relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
• The hold reflected the MPC’s concerns that the impact of Hurricane Melissa on the economy was more pronounced than initially anticipated, creating greater inflation risks. More recent estimates indicate that damage to infrastructure is in excess of 40% of gross domestic product (GDP), above the previous estimate of 30%. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector experienced damage amounting to approximately 50% of the sector’s 2024 GDP. The larger damage means that the initial impact on agriculture and electricity prices, as well as the later effect on the prices of other goods and services (the second-round impact) of this initial jump, is likely to be stronger and more persistent than initially anticipated.
• Consequently, Annual headline inflation is expected to rise sharply over the next few months from 4.4% in November 2025 and remain elevated for the near-term. In this context, inflation will likely exceed the Bank’s inflation target of 4.0%-6.0% by early 2026. This rise primarily reflects the hurricane’s impact on the major food-producing parishes and disruptions to supply chains (particularly in energy and agriculture), which monetary policy cannot affect.
• Core inflation, which excludes the prices of agricultural food products and fuel from the consumer price index (CPI), will also rise over the next twelve months, reflecting another wave of price increases for other goods and services (e.g. those related to home repairs, meals from restaurants and personal care items) through second-round effects. The higher core inflation will be supported by the anticipated surge in overall spending in the context of the rebuilding efforts, financed largely by external financing to the private and public sectors.
• The Bank is therefore positioning monetary policy to minimise such effects and to constrain increases in businesses’ inflation expectations. In the aftermath of the hurricane, Parliament has suspended the fiscal rule for an initial period of one year. This will support the public sector’s ability to increase spending for the recovery and relief effort. For the central government in particular, larger fiscal deficits are projected over the next three fiscal years, compared with their previous projection.
• The risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside, with a greater likelihood of inflation being above projections. Higher inflation could result from higher-than-expected demand amidst the reconstruction efforts and from increased inflation expectations. A more protracted recovery in the agriculture sector and more prolonged disruptions to supply chains could worsen food price increases. There could also be long-term damage in specific industries, which could slow the improvement in the production and availability of supplies. On the downside, inflation could be lower due to a slower-than-anticipated recovery in domestic demand associated with income loss.

(Source: BOJ)

• Following damage assessments and the incorporation of Hurricane Melissa’s impact, S&P Global Ratings (S&P) believes that the likelihood of an upgrade for Jamaica over the next 12 months has become more remote. Hurricane Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on October 28, and evaluating its effects has taken time, the agency noted. These impacts were reflected in the government’s December budget update, particularly in the revised economic and fiscal outlook.
• Consequently, on December 18, 2025, S&P revised its outlook on Jamaica to stable from positive and affirmed its 'BB' long-term and 'B' short-term local and foreign currency sovereign credit ratings.
• The stable outlook balances the expectation that the government will prudently manage recovery and rebuilding efforts, guided by a stable institutional foundation, with Jamaica’s inherent vulnerabilities to external shocks. While the economy is expected to recover as Jamaica rebuilds, this will take time, and expectations are that the government’s fiscal position will temporarily weaken as its spending needs increase. The debt burden is expected to rise before continuing its long-term trajectory of decline.
• Net general government debt is expected to increase to 55% of GDP by next year, from 49% last year. S&P believes net government debt will continue to fall, reaching 50% of GDP by 2028. At the same time, the agency expects government interest to revenues will be higher than previously anticipated, given higher borrowing and debt, averaging about 17% of revenues from 2025-2028. Furthermore, primary fiscal surpluses are expected to remain below Jamaica’s average of the past decade in 2025 and 2026, close to 3% of GDP, on average, from 2025-2028.
• With solid growth in the tourism industry and throughout the economy estimated in the first three quarters of 2025, prior to the hurricane, S&P expects the overall GDP contraction in 2025 to be less severe than it otherwise would have been. The agency expects a contraction of 2% for the full-year 2025. In 2026, the contraction at the beginning of the year will be somewhat offset by growth in the fourth quarter. Expectations are for a contraction of 1.8% in 2026, and thereafter growth averaging 3% in 2027 and 2028 as the economy rebounds.
• Overall, despite a significant hit to growth in the near term and a need to fund rebuilding, Jamaica’s solid institutions and preparedness for external shocks, in addition to an expected economic rebound, support its current BB ratings.
• Fiscal policy and economic recovery are the main factors that could lead to a downgrade or upgrade of Jamaica’s credit rating by S&P. S&P could downgrade Jamaica within the next year if it sees weaker fiscal discipline leading to larger, persistent deficits and rising debt, or if the economy does not recover as expected, which would hurt the country’s external position.
• On the flip side, S&P could raise Jamaica’s ratings over the same period if the country’s debt burden improves through a sustained drop in the interest-to-revenues ratio and a faster recovery in fiscal performance, and if economic growth is materially stronger and quicker than expected, bringing long-term growth in line with peers at a similar level of development.

(Source: S&P Global Ratings)

• On December 18, 2025, Caribbean Information and Credit Rating Services Limited (CariCRIS) reaffirmed the Issuer/Corporate Credit Ratings assigned to Wigton Energy Limited (Wigton) at CariBBB+ (Local Currency Rating) on the regional rating scale, and jmA (Local Currency Rating) on the Jamaica national scale.
• The regional ratings indicate that the level of creditworthiness of Wigton, relative to other peers in the Caribbean, is ‘adequate’. However, the national scale rating indicates that the level of creditworthiness of Wigton relative to other peers in Jamaica is ‘good’.
• The ratings were driven by Wigton’s leading position as an independent renewable power producer in Jamaica, with business operations supported by long-term contracts. The company’s adequate operating efficiency, supported by well-maintained wind turbines, as well as good financial performance in FY2025, further underpins the ratings – notwithstanding a decline in profitability.
• Moreover, Wigton continues to present healthy liquidity and adequate debt servicing capability, despite some weakening, alongside a good corporate governance structure and robust risk management practices. Notwithstanding these rating strengths, Wigton’s revenue remains highly vulnerable to wind variability and the vagaries of nature. The ratings are further constrained by the lack of government support and protective legislation for local renewable energy producers.
• CariCRIS also maintained a stable outlook on the ratings for Wigton. The stable outlook is based on the high likelihood that Wigton will remain profitable over the next 12 to 15 months, notwithstanding the temporary operational and economic disruptions caused by Hurricane Melissa. This is underpinned by its core wind energy operations, strategic diversification into solar energy generation and strong insurance coverage, which are collectively expected to support its operational resilience and revenues over the period.
• Additionally, CariCRIS expects Wigton to meet all debt service commitments in a timely manner. That said, the agency noted that it will continue to closely monitor the evolving impact of Hurricane Melissa on Wigton’s operations and credit profile over the coming months.

(Source: CariCRIS)

• The Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) announced that S&P Global Ratings affirmed its long-term issuer credit rating of ‘AA+’ and an improved short-term issuer credit rating of ‘A-1+’, with a stable outlook.
• This rating reflects the view that, over the next two years, CDB will maintain high capitalisation and a solid business profile, as the region’s preferred lender. This assessment endorses CDB’s continued financial strength and its critical role in supporting sustainable development across the Caribbean.
• The affirmation follows a comprehensive review under its revised methodology for multilateral lending institutions. The bank’s risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio increased to 59.6%, well above the threshold for extremely strong capital adequacy. This improvement was supported by CDB’s recent Exposure Exchange Agreement (EEA), which reduced portfolio concentration and enhanced risk management.
• “This rating underscores the confidence of our shareholders and partners in CDB’s prudent financial and risk management and its unwavering commitment to the region,” said Daniel M. Best, president of the CDB. “Our strong capital position enables us to continue delivering on our mandate to accelerate inclusive and resilient growth for our 19 borrowing member countries,” he added.
• S&P highlighted CDB’s very strong enterprise risk profile, citing its policies and status among Caribbean sovereign borrowers. The stable outlook reflects expectations that CDB will maintain high capitalisation and robust liquidity over the next two years, even amid global economic headwinds and climate-related challenges. The bank’s enhanced capital base positions it to expand its loan portfolio in order to strengthen regional climate action and sustainable development.

(Source: Caribbean News Global)

• As the government transitions to a modern and digitally driven economy, the need to join the formal banking system has risen. The head of state made the remarks in his address to the nation at the Arthur Chung Conference Centre (ACCC) on Wednesday, where he outlined the government’s economic and social agenda for the next five years.
• The government has simplified bank account opening requirements, with these measures already in effect, contributing to more than 65,000 new bank accounts since 2020 and expanding participation in the formal banking system.
• Online banking is now operational at four local commercial banks, improving access nationwide, including hinterland regions, and supporting the government’s plan to deliver social cash transfers through the banking system.
• Authorities have announced plans to establish a junior stock exchange and enable online loan applications and transaction processing within the next five years, further deepening financial market access.
• SMEs will have access to up to $10.0Mn in zero-collateral loans via the Guyana Development Bank, while micro businesses can apply for up to $3.0Mn in zero-collateral, zero-interest loans through a new development bank framework.
• These initiatives align with the PPP/C administration’s 2025 Manifesto, including the launch of an SME Development Bank by Q1 2026, backed by an initial US$200.0Mn government injection, with youth, women, and persons with disabilities prioritised.

(Source: Caribbean News Global)

• At a time when Americans are frustrated and angry over the high cost of living, the government released a report Thursday showing that inflation had cooled unexpectedly in November. But economists quickly warned that last month’s numbers were suspect because they’d been delayed and likely distorted by the 43-day federal shutdown. And most Americans have not felt any let-up in the high prices they are paying for food, insurance, utilities and other necessities.
• The Labour Department reported Thursday that its consumer price index rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier. Yet, year-over-year inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Americans, dismayed by high prices, handed big victories to Democrats in local and state elections last month.
• The inflation report was delayed eight days by the shutdown, which also prevented the Labour Department from compiling overall numbers for consumer prices and core inflation in October and disrupted the usual data-collecting process. Thursday’s report gave investors, businesses and policymakers their first look at CPI since the September numbers were released on Oct. 24.
• Consumer prices had risen 3% in September from a year earlier, and forecasters had expected the November CPI to match that year-over-year increase. Kay Haigh, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, warned that the November numbers were “noisy … The cancelling of the October report makes month-on-month comparisons impossible, for example, while the truncated information-gathering process, given the shutdown, could have caused systematic biases in the data.”
• Many economists don’t expect to get a reliable read on inflation until next month, when the Labour Department releases CPI numbers for December. Energy prices, driven up by sharply higher fuel oil prices, rose 4.2% in November. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 2.6%, compared with a 3% year-over-year gain in September and the lowest since March 2021. U.S. inflation remains stubbornly high, partly because President Donald Trump decided to impose double-digit taxes on imports from almost every country on earth, along with targeted tariffs on specific products like steel, aluminium and autos.
• The president’s tariffs have so far proved less inflationary than economists feared. But they do put upward pressure on prices and complicate matters at the Fed, which is trying to decide whether to keep cutting its benchmark interest rate to support a sputtering job market or whether to hold off until inflationary pressures ease.

(Source: PBS News)

• Japan’s central bank on Thursday kicked off its last policy meeting of the year, with expectations that it will raise benchmark interest rates to their highest in 30 years, as it seeks to move ahead with policy normalisation set forth last year.
• The decision could see rates raised to 0.75% – the highest since 1995 – with data from LSEG showing an 86.4% probability of a hike by the Bank of Japan. A rate hike will likely strengthen the yen against the dollar and contain inflation, which has run above the BOJ’s target for 43 straight months. But it could further slow a weak Japanese economy that contracted in the third quarter.
• Revised GDP numbers showed that Japan’s economy in the three months through September contracted more than initially estimated, shrinking 0.6% quarter on quarter, and 2.3% on an annualised basis. With a rate hike almost certain, experts said that market focus will be more on the BOJ’s commentary after the decision.
• Gregor MA Hirt, global multi-asset chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors, noted that the market reaction will depend on the nuances of the BOJ’s communication. Signals around the neutral, or terminal, rate, one that balances inflation and economic growth, and comments on yen weakness will be some of the things to look out for.
• Governor Kazuo Ueda reportedly said earlier this month that it was difficult to estimate the terminal rate, with the central bank pegging it at 1% to 2.5%. Japan embarked on policy normalisation last year, abandoning the world’s only negative interest rate regime that had been in place since 2016. Since then, the BOJ has consistently maintained its stance of gradually raising rates.

(Source: CNBC)

• Jamaica Broilers Group Limited (JBG) recorded a net loss attributable to shareholders of $379.3Mn for Q2 ended November 1, 2025, compared with a $756.1Mn profit in Q2 2024. Management attributed the quarterly loss primarily to continued challenges within U.S. operations, including higher feed and production costs and pressure on market selling prices, which outweighed the resilience of the Jamaican business.
• Core Q2 revenues were relatively stable at $24.09Bn (-0.2%), reflecting the offsetting impact of solid core demand in Jamaica against ongoing weakness in U.S. pricing conditions.
• However, elevated feed costs and production inefficiencies in the U.S. segment contributed to a 4.6% increase in direct costs. Consequently, Gross profit declined by 18.3% to $4.18Bn in Q2 from $5.12Bn a year earlier.
• Lower gross profits were met by a 1.0% increase in operating expenses to $3.67Bn. A 45.1% increase in distribution costs to $1.10Bn, largely attributed to the U.S. segment, was partly offset by a 10.7% decrease in Admin expenses. The group’s other income also lent a hand, increasing by 94.2% to $0.17Bn. Nonetheless, operating profits decreased, down 56.7% to $0.68bn. Net finance costs were also higher, up 31.4% to $0.91Bn. All these factors contributed to JBG’s lower Q2 profits.
• Despite the weak Q2 profits, the company recorded net profit of $1.22Bn for the six months ended November 1, 2025 (6M 2025), a 17.0% increase relative 6M 2024. JBG also completed the revaluation of its land and buildings. This added approximately $53Bn to asset values and $41Bn to stockholders’ equity. The revaluation pulled the group from a shareholder’s deficit of $10.03Bn to positive shareholders’ equity of $31.54Bn.
• Management noted that stronger Jamaican operations and decisive corrective actions underway in the U.S. helped offset the Q2 setback. Notably, it has already taken steps to improve cost performance, including optimising live-bird yields, enhancing plant efficiency and adjusting pricing where market conditions allow. However, the company communicated its willingness to sell the U.S. meat business if it received a suitable offer.
• Meanwhile, the resilience of the Jamaican business could be tested by Hurricane Melissa. Strong holiday demand and robust inventory are expected to drive high chicken sales for the company. However, the feed business faces a downturn as Hurricane Melissa decimated small farmers in Western Jamaica, who are the primary customers. While other regional farmers may ramp up production to fill supply gaps, the net impact on feed revenue remains uncertain.
• As at the close of trading on Wednesday, JBG’s stock price closed at J$17.20, reflecting a 52.1% year-to-date drop.

(Source: JSE, NCBCM Research)