• The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) is expected to leave its policy rate at 5.50% through 2026, according to BMI. It sees the central bank maintaining a more accommodative monetary policy stance as the country continues to recover from Hurricane Melissa amid already muted domestic demand.
• While inflation has risen significantly in recent months, from 3.9% in January to 7.5% in July, this is largely a function of rising energy and commodity prices stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions, over which the BoJ's policy rate has little influence. Consequently, BMI expects the Bank to remain on the sidelines at its September meeting, opting instead to maintain a more accommodative stance as the country continues to rebuild, while deploying other tools to combat imported inflationary pressures.
• While headline and core inflation have risen in recent months, inflation expectations have remained encouragingly stable, falling 0.3 percentage points (pp) in June This indicates the ongoing credibility of the BoJ's monetary policy and its limited incentive to raise rates. The BoJ's decision to hold, despite acknowledging clear upside risks to its inflation forecast, implies a tolerance for supply-side price pressures, reinforcing the view that it will hold in the near term.
• The agency expects that the same factors that will cause the BOJ in September will cause it to stay on the sidelines through year-end. Instead, the agency forecasts that the central bank will deploy its ample foreign reserves to continue supporting the currency, which has appreciated 0.1% year-to-date and 0.8% since last August. It deems this an effective measure to counter rising import costs and mitigate international inflation pass-through.
• Looking ahead, inflation is expected to average 6.4% in 2026 and end the year at 6.2% before resuming its downward trend toward the midpoint of the BOJ's target range (5.0%) in 2027 as geopolitical tensions dissipate and international inflation pressures ease. However, continued fiscal expansion will likely exert moderate upward pressure on inflation as reconstruction and recovery efforts continue in the near and medium term.
• That said, risks to inflation and interest rate forecasts are tilted firmly to the upside. As noted by the BOJ, risks to the inflation outlook and to the interest rate path largely stem from ongoing uncertainty surrounding unresolved Middle East tensions, which have driven commodity prices higher and could push inflation up by more than currently expected. Additionally, while inflation expectations have remained stable, a substantial unmooring of these crucial indicators could prompt a rate hike by the BoJ in 2026 to keep expectations anchored.
• An additional domestic upside risk to inflation is the El Niño-induced drought currently affecting eastern parishes. While favourable rainfall patterns in several key agricultural parishes have partially mitigated the impact, prolonged dry conditions could constrain agricultural supply and place upward pressure on domestic food prices. This risk was not explicitly incorporated into BMI's assessment and could complicate the BoJ's efforts to distinguish between temporary supply-side pressures and more persistent inflationary pressures.

(Sources: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company and NCBCM Research)

• For June 2026, net remittance inflows to Jamaica increased by 9.3% year-over-year to US$292.8Mn, compared to 2.9% for June 2025, according to the Bank of Jamaica’s (BOJ’s) Remittance Bulletin. The increase reflects an 8.5% (US$24.5Mn) rise in total remittance inflows, mainly due to stronger flows through the Remittance Companies channel, supported by flows through the Other Remittances channel¹.
• For January to June 2026 (H1 2026), total remittance inflows to Jamaica amounted to US$1.78Bn, representing a 4.2% increase relative to the corresponding period of 2025. Jamaica’s growth trailed Guatemala (7.0%) and El Salvador (4.8%) but exceeded Mexico (3.2%).
• The United States remained the primary source market for remittances, accounting for 68.8% of total inflows in June 2026. This compares to 68.2% in June 2025. Other significant source markets were the United Kingdom (10.8%), Canada (9.3%) and the Cayman Islands (6.3%).
• Looking ahead, remittance inflows are expected to provide support to Jamaica’s external position. This will be particularly important as the BOJ expects the current account balance to deteriorate in the near term due to higher fuel and freight costs and increased imports associated with post-Hurricane Melissa rebuilding efforts. Additionally, healthy gross international reserves, which stood at US$6.7Bn as at July 2026, and a relatively stable foreign exchange market should provide some buffer against these external pressures.
• However, downside risks to remittance inflows remain, particularly from softer U.S. labour market conditions, given that the United States accounted for 68.8% of Jamaica’s remittance inflows in June. A sustained weakening in S. labour market conditions could temper migrant income growth and, consequently, remittance inflows to Jamaica.

_____________________

¹‘Other Remittances’ refers to any remittance activity occurring outside of traditional remittance companies, for example, transfers via deposit-taking institutions.

(Sources: Bank of Jamaica & NCBCM Research)

• The Export and Investment Centre of the Dominican Republic (ProDominicana) reported that Dominican exports reached a record US$9,277 million during the January-July 2026 period. The agency considered that this achievement represents a year-on-year growth of 12.5% and consolidates the positive performance of the national export sector. “This result is equivalent to an additional US$1,029.1 million compared to the same period in 2025 and constitutes the highest value recorded for the first seven months of the year,” it said in a press release.
• ProDominicana highlighted that products linked to the medical device sector exceeded US$1,435 million during that period, accounting for about 15.5% of total exports. Similarly, it specified that, excluding exports of raw gold, the remaining exportable supply grew by 5.1%. “Regarding the monthly performance, in July alone exports reached US$1,398.8 million, the highest value recorded for that month, with year-on-year growth of 2.2%,” the statement said.
• Vladimir Pimentel, executive director of ProDominicana, considered that “the dynamism recorded reaffirms the strength and potential of the Dominican exportable offer, as well as the ability of our companies and productive sectors to take advantage of the opportunities of international markets and continue expanding the presence of Dominican products abroad.”
• During those seven months of the year, growth was mainly driven by increases in exports of raw gold (an additional US$667.7 million); tobacco, totally or partially deveined (an additional US$105.4 million); and orthopedic items and appliances (an additional US$85.9 million).
• As for export regimes, free zones reached US$5,253.1 million during the January-July period, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% and a share of 56.6% of total exports. Likewise, the national regime¹ reached US$3,838.6 million, registering a year-on-year growth of 27.9%.
• “These results show the strength of the different components of the Dominican export sector. The growth of national exports, together with the sustained performance of the free zones, continues to strengthen the country’s ability to compete and generate new opportunities in international markets,” Pimentel said.
• As for the main destination markets, the United States remained the largest trading partner, with exports of US$682.0 million, representing year-on-year growth of 8.2%. Likewise, exports to Switzerland reached US$188.3 million, registering a year-on-year growth of 25,555.8%, while US$125.3 million were exported to Haiti, an increase of 12.3% compared to July 2025.
• In that period, 3,408 exporting companies placed the Dominican offer in 162 international markets, through 2,691 tariff lines, with exports from 28 provinces, reflecting the territorial, business and commercial scope of the national export activity.
• ProDominicana continues to promote a more competitive, diversified exportable offer with a greater international presence, promoting the internationalisation of Dominican companies and generating new opportunities for more of the country’s products and territories to participate in global markets.

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¹The "national regime" applies to standard, locally registered businesses subject to conventional tax and regulatory frameworks, distinguishing them from specialised, tax-exempt free trade zones.

• Guyana’s next offshore oil projects will increasingly serve two purposes: adding new production while replacing output lost as older developments mature. The distinction is becoming more relevant as the Stabroek Block’s producing portfolio ages and the Uaru project prepares to become Guyana’s fifth offshore development.
• Uaru is designed to produce up to 250,000 barrels per day (b/d), but that does not necessarily mean 250,000 b/d will be added to Guyana’s national production level. Some of the new barrels will offset declines at projects already in operation. The trend is clearest at Liza 1, which began production in December 2019 and was later optimised to produce up to 160,000 b/d.
• Production data show the development averaged about 147,000 b/d in January 2025. By January 2026, that had fallen to about 131,000 b/d, followed by 129,000 b/d in February, 127,000 b/d in March and 122,000 b/d in April. That longer trend provides an indication of declining output at Guyana’s oldest development.
• The changing production profile means the impact of new projects is better measured by their contribution to net national growth, rather than simply adding their stated production capacity to existing output. For now, however, the production added by new projects is expected to substantially outweigh declines from older developments, allowing Guyana’s overall output to continue rising sharply.
• For example, if production across existing developments were to fall by 30,000 b/d by the time a new 250,000-b/d project reaches capacity, the resulting net increase would be about 220,000 b/d, assuming other factors remain unchanged. This dynamic will become increasingly important as Guyana brings additional projects online.
• Uaru, a US$12.7 billion development targeting more than 800 million barrels of recoverable oil, is expected to take national production beyond one million b/d. It will be followed by Whiptail, another 250,000-b/d development. By then, Liza 1 and Liza 2 will have been producing for several years, while Payara and Yellowtail will also be further into their production lives.
• Successive Stabroek projects will therefore not simply stack new production on top of an unchanged base. An increasing portion of new production will be needed to replace declining output from older projects, with the remainder determining how quickly national production continues to grow.

(Source: OIL Now)

• The U.S. on ‌Monday announced an expansion of secondary sanctions it hopes will "sever every economic lifeline" that sustains Iran, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a press conference.
• Bessent unveiled what he described as an "economic D-Day" that aims to give a final warning ​to countries to cut their business ties with Iran or risk having key companies and ​entities cut off from the dollar-based financial system.
• "We are launching an economic onslaught against ⁠Iran’s financial connections around the globe. Our objective is to sever every economic lifeline that sustains ​this tyrannical regime until Tehran stands alone," Bessent said.
• Iran has spent decades under layers of U.S. and international sanctions that ​have battered its economy but have not deterred its leadership. Bessent previously urged cooperation from China, the biggest buyer of Iranian ‌oil ⁠for several years, although the U.S. blockade of Iran's ports, renewed in mid-July, has already cut Iranian oil flows to China.
• Bessent said the U.S. Treasury Department has mapped the networks, facilitators and financial channels that Iran uses to smuggle oil and evade sanctions. He said Washington would be working with U.S. partners to ⁠target ​any source of Iran's "illicit revenue."

(Source: Reuters)

• The US imposed 50% tariffs on around US$20Bn of Canadian imports on August 22, 2026, under Section 338 after talks broke down. Prime Minister Mark Carney pledged “dollar-for-dollar” retaliation from September 8, prompting Trump to threaten 50% tariffs on Canadian autos and steel from January 1, 2027
• BMI estimates that the Section 338 measure raises the effective tariff rate (ETR) on Canadian imports into the US from 3.4% to 5.6%, while lifting the global ETR on total US imports only marginally, from 10.7% to 10.9%.
• BMI’s base case is that the August 22 tariffs and Canada’s retaliation remain in place until end-2026. Talks have stalled, and neither side appears willing to compromise quickly. Risks to this view include a renewed deal before retaliation begins, US political pressure ahead of the midterms, or successful legal challenges, given that Section 338 has never previously been used to impose tariffs.
• Conversely, if negotiations fail and legal challenges are unsuccessful, the tariffs could remain beyond our base case. This would further strain US-Canada relations and raise the risk that the administration uses Section 338 more broadly.
• The agency does not expect the proposed January 1 increase in US tariffs on Canadian autos and steel to 50% to be implemented. We view the threat as negotiating leverage and expect it to be shelved as part of a deal that removes the August tariffs and Canada’s retaliation before year-end, though failed talks could still see it materialise.
• BMI’s US economic forecasts remain unchanged. The limited rise in the global ETR means the tariffs do not materially affect our 2026 inflation or growth forecasts, at 3.3% and 2.0% respectively. The fiscal forecast is also unchanged, with the budget deficit at 5.8% of GDP in 2026, as BMI do not expect the tariffs to generate meaningful additional revenue.

(Source: BMI, A Fitch Solutions Company)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) newcomers delivered sharply contrasting performances in their most recent financial releases, reflecting differences in business exposure, operating momentum and the impacts of the weaker economic environment. Atlantic Hardware & Plumbing Limited (AHPC) emerged as the strongest performer, combining rapid revenue growth with substantial earnings expansion, while Quantas Advantage Inc. (QUANTAS) delivered solid topline growth but faced higher operating costs, which weighed on quarterly earnings. Woodcats International Limited (WOODCATS) emerged as the weakest of the three, with softer manufacturing and export demand driving declines across revenue and profitability despite meaningful cost containment and lower debt.

Atlantic Leads the Pack on Explosive Growth

• For AHPC’s second quarter ended June 30, 2026 (Q2 2026), revenues surged 91.7% year-on-year (YoY) to J$776.42Mn, driven by strong demand across core customer segments, expansion into agro-distribution, improved product availability, and disciplined execution of its commercial strategy. Gross profit also increased 61.9% though cost of sales surged 104.9%, which in turn squeezed gross margins to 25.7% from 30.4% in Q2 2025. Although selling, general and administrative expenses rose 53.2% to J$139.9Mn amid higher staff, audit, and expansion costs and credit losses, the stronger gross profit contribution translated into a 140.3% increase in Q2 net profits to J$42.03Mn, with net margins rising to 5.4% from 4.3%.
• Atlantic's momentum extended through the first half of 2026 (H1 2026), with revenues increasing 69.3%, gross profit up 58.9% and operating profit increasing 60.3% to J$166.04Mn. A 22.5% reduction in finance costs, following debt repayments funded partly by the company’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) and the sale of the Ashenheim Road property, provided additional support below the operating line. Consequently, H1 net profit surged 242.7% to J$116.28Mn.

Quantas Grows Revenue but Costs Bite

• Quantas delivered a more mixed Q4, with revenue increasing 10.3% YoY to US$1.36Mn, supported by higher interest income and a favourable foreign-exchange movement. However, realised gains declined 48.1% to US$0.44Mn, reflecting a lower level of portfolio disposals during the year. Operating expenses increased 44.0% to US$0.44Mn as the company scaled its management and operating infrastructure. Consequently, net income declined (-5.3%) to US$0.82Mn, and net margins fell to 60.4% from 70.3% in Q4 2025.
• The quarterly result contrasts with the stronger twelve-month performance of QUANTAS, where net income increased approximately 31.1% to US$2.53Mn, driven primarily by a 55.8% increase in net interest income. QUANTAS' underlying balance-sheet expansion also provides a stronger foundation for future earnings growth. Total assets increased approximately 63% YoY to US$50.9Mn at June 2026, supported principally by new equity capital and additional borrowing, with IPO proceeds being redeployed into interest-earning assets.

Woodcats Cost Control Cushions Revenue Downturn

• Woodcats remained the most challenged of the three, as lower production volumes due to the downturn in economic activity and a decline in exports to other key markets continued to weigh on demand for pallets and related products. Q2 revenues declined 31.3% YoY to J$223.82Mn, while gross profit fell 32.1% to J$68.72Mn. Gross margin, however, remained relatively stable at 30.7% from 31.1% previously, reflecting management's efforts to realign its operations with the lower level of activity.
• Administrative expenses declined 18.9% as management reduced contract labour hours, marketing and delivery/fleet costs. Lower finance costs, which fell by roughly two-thirds to J$3.66Mn following debt repayment, also provided some relief. However, this was not sufficient to cushion the bottom line as net profit declined 50.2% to J$10.89Mn. There was a subsequent falloff in the net margin, which fell to 4.9% from 6.7% in Q2 2025. For H1 2026, net profits have declined by 34.5% on the back of weaker topline performance.

Outlook and Stock Price Momentum Also Diverges Across

• Looking ahead, Atlantic appears well positioned to sustain near-term momentum through its hardware and agro-distribution diversification, while Quantas could see further growth as its enlarged investment portfolio continues generating higher yields. Woodcats, however, remains more dependent on a recovery in manufacturing and export activity, with automation, diversification and its waste-to-revenue initiatives providing potential medium-term catalysts.
• AHPC, QUANTAS, and WOODCATS share prices have declined since the start of the year to close at $1.20 (-20.0%), $14.92 (-23.1%), and $0.50 (-44.4%), respectively, on August 20, 2026. At their current market prices, AHPC trades at a P/E multiple of 19.35x, above the Junior Market Distribution Sector average of 15.95x, while WOODCATS trades at a P/E multiple of 7.14x, significantly below the Junior Market Manufacturing Sector average of 34.79%. That said, QUANTAS trades at a P/B multiple of 0.82x, below the Main Market Financial Sector average of 1.01x

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• The Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) saw a mix of dividend developments, financial reporting delays and corporate changes during the week, with several listed companies moving to update shareholders on matters ranging from distributions to governance and management changes.
• Dividend activity dominated the week, with several companies announcing upcoming Board meetings or changes to previously scheduled considerations. Dolla Financial Services Limited (DOLLA) postponed consideration of an interim dividend payment originally scheduled for August 19, with the Board now set to consider the matter on August 26. Kingston Properties Limited (KPREIT) is also set to consider a dividend payment on August 24, while Lumber Depot Limited (LUMBER) and Blue Power Group Limited (BPOW) have scheduled meetings for September 10 to consider dividend payments.
• Further dividend considerations are pending across the market. Productive Business Solutions Limited (PBS) advised that its Board will meet on August 27 to consider dividend payments to its 9.25% and 10.50% perpetual cumulative redeemable preference shareholders. Stanley Motta Limited (SML) also announced that its Board will meet on August 27 to consider the declaration of a dividend to shareholders.
• Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCC), meanwhile, has confirmed a shareholder-approved final dividend of JM$2.0854 per share. The dividend will be paid on October 15, 2026, with August 28 set as both the record and ex-dividend date. Similarly, Mailpac Group Limited (MAILPAC) has declared an interim dividend of $0.02 per share, payable on September 16, 2026, to shareholders on record at the close of business on September 2.
• The week also brought changes to how shareholders will receive dividends payment, Fontana Limited (FONTANA) and Caribbean Cream Limited (KREMI) are moving away from cheque payments toward electronic direct deposits through the Jamaica Central Securities Depository (JCSD). Both companies will transition to the new payment method effective January 1, 2027, with shareholders encouraged to submit their banking instructions in advance.
• Beyond dividends, several companies provided updates on delayed financial reporting. PROVEN Group Limited (PROVEN) has requested an extension from the JSE to submit its audited financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2026, citing delays in the preparation of financial statements at an associated entity. The company expects to publish the results by August 28. KLE Group Limited (KLE) has also advised that its second-quarter (Q2) unaudited financial statements, originally due in August, are now expected by September 15, while EduFocal Limited (LEARN) expects to publish its delayed Q2 results by August 31.
• Rounding out the week, corporate leadership changes remained active across the market. Berger Paints Jamaica Limited (BRG) appointed Osville Linton Johnson as General Manager, effective August 17, and Carreras Limited (CAR) named Shaneele Ebanks Powell as Marketing Deployment Manager following Imran Mohammed’s transition to another role within parent company British American Tobacco (BAT). Dolphin Cove Limited (DCOVE) also announced the appointment of four new directors - Darys Estrella, Colin Kerr, Alberto Berges Gonzalez and Sylvain Dominici - effective August 17, underscoring a week of notable boardroom and management changes across listed companies.

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

• As offshore oil development moves closer to production, Suriname’s government is outlining a longer-term economic vision (Suriname 3.0) aimed at ensuring oil revenues translate into broader national development.
• In an interview with the Communications Service Suriname on February 26, Minister of Oil, Gas and Environment Patrick Brunings cautioned against overreliance on the country’s emerging oil and gas sector.
• “I see the oil and gas industry as a catalyst that will accelerate our economic recovery,” Brunings said. “But we absolutely mustn’t rely on it. We must use this prosperity to develop sustainable industries, so we remain flexible and don’t become dependent on just one source.”
• According to government discussions with the private sector, the initiative builds on the current ‘Suriname 2.0’ phase and seeks to outline the country’s long-term transformation under Suriname 3.0, while serving as a starting point for both the Green Development Strategy and a new Multi-Year Development Program. The framework has also included discussions about establishing a national development agency, provided for under Article 72f of Suriname’s Constitution, although legislation to create the institution has not yet been pursued further.
• While oil development is accelerating, Brunings stressed that the country must avoid becoming overly dependent on petroleum revenues and guard against the so-called Dutch disease, where sudden resource wealth weakens other parts of the economy. “We must absolutely not think that we can now lean back because oil and gas are coming,” he said. “Actually, the opposite is true.”
• To address this, Brunings said authorities plan to organize a large national workshop that will bring together government institutions, civil society and other stakeholders to develop a long-term roadmap.

(Source: OilNow)

• Brazil's Finance Minister Dario Durigan said on Thursday ​that, if President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's ‌administration wins another term in the October election, the country will maintain its fiscal framework through spending controls and revenue recovery.
• "Under this ​administration, we undertook a fiscal effort amounting to 2% ​of GDP. We are prepared to make an ⁠effort of the same magnitude," Durigan said in an interview ​with local radio CBN. He noted that in discussions with Congress, ​adjustments have been made to cut mandatory spending by around 10 billion reais ($1.9 billion) in 2027.
• "We must continue this good work of institutional dialogue, cutting ​spending and broadening the revenue base in a way ​that is fair to the population so that we can achieve a ‌positive ⁠result as early as next year. And that is exactly what we are going to do. “He argued that the "issue of interest rates" must be addressed to tackle inequality, adding ​that lower borrowing ​costs could ⁠also help reverse the trajectory of public debt.
• Brazil's central bank earlier this month cut its ​benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points ​for a ⁠fourth consecutive meeting, taking it to 14.00%, but leaving its next moves open.
• The minister said meetings with economists from a range ⁠of ​backgrounds have been valuable in helping ​him understand their concerns ahead of the election.

(Source: Reuters)