• At its 18–19 August 2025 meetings, the MPC unanimously agreed to hold the policy rate at 5.75% against the background of low domestic inflation amid global uncertainties. The MPC determined that the current stance remains appropriate to anchor inflation within the 4–6% target over the next two years despite global uncertainties and inflation being below the lower bound of its target range for the last two consecutive months.
• Headline inflation stood at 3.3% in July 2025, down from 5.1% the prior year and below the BOJ’s 4–6% target range. This moderation reflected lower crude oil prices, non-repetition of transport fare hikes, reduced GCT on electricity, improved agricultural supplies, and stable inflation expectations. Importantly, core inflation was 4.3%.
• BOJ projects inflation to generally trend within the 4–6% band over the next two years, though near-term readings are expected to remain below the lower bound due to cheaper electricity and stronger agricultural output, before gradually rising toward the midpoint. These projected breaches mainly reflect the temporary impact of improved agricultural supplies, following the shock to the Agriculture sector in 2024, as well as lower electricity costs in the context of the reduction in the GCT on electricity charges.
• That said, risks to the inflation forecast for Jamaica are skewed to the upside, which means that inflation could be moderately higher-than-projected. Higher inflation could stem from a sharper-than-anticipated increase in tariffs faced by the US trading partners, resulting in higher imported inflation and inflation expectations. In addition, inflation could be higher-than-projected if there is a further escalation in geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact international supply chains. Lower inflation could, however, result from lower-than-projected international commodity prices as well as weaker demand conditions.
• Still, the MPC reaffirms its commitment to maintaining low and stable inflation and will deploy the tools necessary to preserve price and foreign exchange market stability.
• On the economic front, despite shifts in US policy, Jamaica’s economy has remained resilient, underpinned by rising remittances in May 2025, higher tourism arrivals in Q2 2025, a current account surplus, and record international reserves of US$6.1Bn. Employment levels are also near record highs and wage pressures are showing signs of moderation.
• According to the BOJ, GDP is projected to grow 1.0–3.0% in FY2025/26, supported by Agriculture, Mining, and Tourism, before normalising to 1.0–2.0% annually in subsequent years as growth stabilises. This economic outlook; however, continues to be clouded by the uncertainties in the global environment. The US continues to reset its economic relationships with its trading partners and tighten its immigration policies. These developments may slow the pace of economic activity and could stimulate inflationary pressures in the US.
  (Source: Bank of Jamaica)

• For FY2025, Palace Amusement Limited (PAL) saw a net loss of J$197.6Mn, versus a profit of J$60.4Mn in FY2024 as lower revenues, the absence of one-off gains recorded in 2024, and weighed on its bottom line
• PAL generated J$1.32Bn in revenues, a 5.5% decline compared with J$1.40Bn in FY2024, with only Palace Cineplex producing year-over-year gains in its revenues amongst the company’s six (6) revenue-generating lines. The shortfall was mainly due to reduced film supply from the Hollywood strikes, though attendance was partially supported by 23 film releases and alternative content (e.g. Gatffest Festival and UEFA Cup Finals). The 4DX technology rollout also bolstered revenues, contributing J$105.0Mn and 35,000 patrons in its first year.
• Direct expenses were largely flat (0.8%) at J$1.23Bn, reflecting high film rental and staffing costs.
• Administrative expenses climbed 18.6% to J$252.6Mn (FY2024: J$212.9Mn). Staff costs rose to J$399.1Mn, up +8.0%, while legal and professional fees surged to J$36.1Mn from J$5.6Mn due to refinancing activity. Management has flagged staff costs as a major “big-ticket” item requiring careful balancing. These costs, led by staff, utilities, and new rental charges, have eaten into the operating margins, pushing PAL into an operating loss compared with the profit achieved in 2024.
• Finance expenses declined to J$42.9Mn, down 22.4%. In the third quarter as refinancing of its debt resulted in a lower interest rate and a reduction in monthly debt service. It also gave the company access to a revolving facility to support operations strategies. Most importantly, the lower payments freed up working capital to better manage payables.”
• As a result, the Company reported a net loss of J$153.9Mn, compared to a profit of J$100.3Mn in FY2024. The operating margin slipped to -11.6% from 7.2%, driven by rising overheads
• PAL’s stock price has declined by 16.8% year-to-date, closing at $1.04 as at Wednesday.

(Sources: Palace Amusement Limited & NCBCM Research)

• The Panama Canal will take in about $400Mn less in the next fiscal year due to a drop in ship traffic caused by global economic uncertainty, the canal authority warned Tuesday, August 20, 2025.
• For the upcoming fiscal year beginning October 1, 2025, the canal is expected to generate $5.207Bn from ship transits and other services, which represents a decrease of $411Mn (-7.4%) compared with projected revenues for the current fiscal year, which ends September 30.
• According to forecasts, there will be between 1,100 and 1,200 fewer transits than this year, when approximately 13,900 vessels carrying roughly 520 million tons of cargo will have crossed the route.
• This anticipated decline in revenues stems from lower projected global economic growth rates, which have fallen from 3.3% earlier this year to 2.5% on August 20, 2025, and extreme volatility due to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
• The 80-kilometer Panama Canal links the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and connects more than 1,900 ports in 170 countries. Roughly 5% of global maritime trade passes through the canal. Its main route connects ports in China, Japan, and South Korea with terminals on the U.S. East Coast.
• Despite the projected revenue drop, the canal expects to deliver $3.194Bn to Panama’s national treasury next year—about $400Mn more than this year.

(Source: Tico Times)

• Production across the Americas is forecast to reach 63 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2031, a 7% increase from 2024, according to Westwood Global Energy Group’s June Wells & Production Outlook – Americas. However, the outlook represents a 2% downward revision from its November 2024 forecast, citing sanctioning delays to floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel tenders offshore Brazil as the main factor.
• The United States is expected to remain the dominant producer in the region, accounting for 63% of total output between 2025 and 2031. Additionally, while production is expected to stay robust, crude volumes may reach their peak as early as 2026.  
• Guyana, meanwhile, is accelerating its rise as one of the hemisphere’s fastest-growing offshore producers. ExxonMobil, which leads development in the Stabroek Block, already has four FPSOs in operation. This pipeline of projects underpins a steep upward trajectory for Guyana’s production profile, making it a key driver of regional supply growth.
• This outlook comes as Guyana’s oil sector continues its rapid ascent. Production has climbed to around 660,000 barrels per day in mid-2025, up sharply from 391,000 barrels per day in 2023. ExxonMobil and its partners have outlined plans to boost output capacity to 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030 through the deployment of eight FPSOs across the Block, supported by recent start-ups and new projects under development.
• Independent analysts have also reinforced the scale of this growth, with Rystad Energy projecting that Guyana will be among the world’s top 10 non-OPEC producers by 2031, pumping roughly 1.3 million barrels per day, thereby surpassing Mexico.

(Source: Oil Now)

• British inflation hit its highest in 18 months in July when it increased to 3.8% from 3.6%, official data showed on Wednesday, once again leaving the country with the fastest rate of price increases among the world's largest rich economies.
• Inflation in Britain's services sector - which is watched closely by the Bank of England (BoE) - accelerated to 5.0% from 4.7% a month earlier. The BoE expected headline inflation to rise to 3.8% in July, but had forecast a smaller 4.9% rise in services prices. Economists polled by Reuters had expected increases of 3.7% and 4.8% respectively.
• The BoE cut interest rates this month but only after a narrow 5-4 vote by policymakers, and it suggested it would slow the already gradual pace of lowering borrowing costs due to inflation's persistence. Sterling rose slightly after the data was published, with investors expecting a longer wait before the next BoE rate cut.
• A quarter-point cut is not fully priced until March 2026. Earlier this month, the next rate cut was viewed as highly likely before the end of 2025. "The economy is experiencing a bout of high inflation and weak growth that will likely remain until next spring," said Deloitte Chief Economist Ian Stewart. He said it was unclear whether the BoE would cut rates again in 2025. The BoE thinks British inflation will hit 4% in September, double its target, and stay above 2% until mid-2027.
• In contrast, inflation in the United States held at 2.7% in July, and in the euro zone, it is expected to remain around the European Central Bank's 2% target over the coming years.
• Some of the differences reflect how energy and other utility prices are regulated in Britain. Big increases in utility bills in April have boosted year-on-year inflation comparisons. Britain's relatively tight labour market, which economists say has become more rigid since Brexit, is also putting upward pressure on prices. Wage growth in Britain has slowed, but at about 5% it is too high for the BoE to feel comfortable about inflation returning rapidly to 2%. Furthermore, employers say that a tax increase imposed on them in April by finance minister Rachel Reeves and a big jump in the minimum wage are forcing them to put up prices.

(Source: Reuters)

• Japan's exports posted the biggest monthly drop in about four years in July, government data showed on Wednesday, as the impact of U.S. tariffs intensified. The falloff is raising concerns about the outlook for the export-reliant economy.
• Total exports from the world's fourth-largest economy dropped 2.6% year-on-year in July in value terms, the biggest monthly drop since February 2021, when exports fell 4.5%. It was larger than a median market forecast for a 2.1% decrease and marks a third straight month of decline after a 0.5% drop in June.
• Despite the plunge in the value of exports, shipment volumes have so far held up as Japanese exporters have avoided major price hikes, said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
• Exports to the United States in July fell 10.1% from a year earlier, with automobiles slumping 28.4% and automotive components down 17.4%. However, automobile exports fell just 3.2% in volume terms, suggesting Japanese automakers' price cuts and efforts to absorb additional tariffs have partly shielded shipments.
• The United States imposed 25% tariffs on automobiles and auto parts in April and threatened 25% levies on most of Japan's other goods. It later struck a trade deal on July 23 that lowered tariffs to 15% in exchange for a U.S.-bound $550 billion Japanese investment package. The agreed tariff rate on automobiles, Japan's largest export sector, is still far higher than the original 2.5%, exerting pressure on major automakers and parts suppliers. Exports to other regions were also weak. Those to China were down 3.5%, the data showed.
• Total imports in July dropped 7.5% from a year earlier, compared with market forecasts for a 10.4% fall. As a result, Japan ran a deficit of 117.5 billion yen ($795.4 million) in July, compared with a forecast of a 196.2 billion yen surplus. The outcome follows unexpectedly strong growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in the April-June quarter, separate data showed last week, fuelled by surprisingly resilient exports and capital expenditure

(Source: Reuters)

• Impacted by elevated costs, Seprod Limited (SEPROD) saw its earnings contract by 37.0% for the quarter ended June 30, 2025 (Q2 2025). The falloff in earnings occurred despite robust growth in the regional manufacturer and distributor’s topline.
• Revenue came in at J$37.8Bn, a 26.0% year-over-year increase from Q2 2024, powered by the full-period consolidation of Caribbean Producers Jamaica Limited (CPJ) and solid performance across core categories.
• Direct costs also grew in tandem, up 22.6%; however, this was lower than the increase in revenues. Consequently, the gross margins increased to 27.0% from 25.0% in Q2 2024, reflecting stronger margins from its product mix and the full integration of CPJ.
• However, flow through to the bottom line was eroded by markedly higher operating and finance costs. Operating and finance costs climbed sharply, rising by 53.5% and 28.6%, respectively. The increase in operating expenses reflects the larger operational footprint post the CPJ acquisition, including higher staffing costs, expanded logistics requirements, and increased administrative overheads associated with managing a more complex, multi-jurisdictional business. Additional debt incurred to finance the acquisitions of CPJ likely contributed to the increase in finance costs.
• The net effect was weaker operating profits, which fell by 4.0% to J$2.21Bn. Consequently, operating profit margin fell to 5.9% from 7.7%.
• Given elevated operating and finance expenses in both the first and second quarters, earnings for the six-month of 2025 fell 33.0% reflecting inorganic increases from consolidation expenses, which inflated operating expenses (opex) in Q2. The higher costs stem from the acquisition and consolidation of beverage and packaged meats company, CPJ.
• Seprod’s stock price has declined by 8.8% year-to-date, closing at $79.47 as at Tuesday. At this price, the stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32.98x, which is higher than the Main Market Distribution and Manufacturing Sector’s average of 17.1x.

(Sources: Seprod Limited & NCBCM Research)

• The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is reporting that the economy grew by an estimated 1.4% year on year during the April to June 2025 quarter. Speaking at PIOJ’s hybrid quarterly press briefing on Tuesday (August 19), Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, said the outturn for the review quarter largely reflected continued growth in most industries.
• The Goods Producing Industry grew by 3.8%, driven by growth in three of four industries, while the Services Industry increased at a much slower - 0.5%.
• The Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry grew by 9.8%, reflecting the impact of more favourable weather conditions, which contributed to an increase in output per hectare and an 11.0% expansion in domestic crops reaped.
• “Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing and the Accommodation and Food Service industries – two industries that were hardest hit by the weather-related disruptions of 2024 – were key drivers of this positive performance. Both industries have entered a new growth phase with current output levels surpassing their pre-hurricane Beryl output levels,” Dr. Henry said.
• Henry also noted that growth in the economies of Jamaica’s major trading partners, which supported external demand, was also among the factors that influenced performance during the review quarter. An increase in the labour force of 24,200 people and higher levels of consumer and business confidence, which drove domestic demand, also contributed to the expansion in economic activity.
• The performance of the agricultural industry stemmed from a 14.1% growth in the output of other agricultural crops, with increased production being recorded in all nine crop groups. Based on current output levels, the agricultural industry has fully recovered from the shock of Hurricane Beryl and is now in a new growth phase, according to the PIOJ.
• However, real Value Added for the Mining & Quarrying industry decreased by 3.5%, reflecting declines in both alumina (5.5%) and crude bauxite production (1.5%). The decline in output from the sector reflects reduced demand from a major overseas purchaser. Meanwhile, output of the Manufacturing industry was estimated to have grown by 1.4%.
• Though the performance of the services sector was more subdued, growth of 1.6% was recorded for the Construction industry, reflecting expansion in both the Building Construction and Other Construction components. The sector benefited from a 745.9% increase in housing starts by the National Housing Trust, driven by 2,077 new starts at the Longville Park housing scheme and a higher work-in-progress supported by the strong increase in housing starts reported in the previous quarter.

(Source: JIS)

• ExxonMobil’s oil production offshore Guyana has now surpassed 650 million barrels since first oil in December 2019, with output on track to expand sharply before the end of this year. The first three producing projects, known as Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2, and Payara, have each achieved major milestones.
• Liza 1 has pumped more than 250 million barrels, Liza 2 has exceeded 270 million barrels, and Payara has already delivered over 135 million barrels. Combined, they account for more than 650 million barrels extracted in less than six years, underscoring Guyana’s rapid rise as a major oil producer. Production is currently averaging around 660,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the three projects.
• With the start-up of the Yellowtail project this month, output is set to climb quickly. The government has projected that in the final quarter of 2025, average daily production will be about 786,000 barrels, with full ramp-up expected by year-end based on Exxon’s track record of rapid scale-ups.
• The upcoming Uaru and Whiptail projects are slated to add 250,000 bpd each. That would lift Guyana’s production capacity above 1.4 million bpd, placing it far ahead of traditional per-capita leaders like Kuwait and Qatar. By that stage, Guyana will stand as the world’s largest per capita producer of crude oil by a wide margin.
• The financial impact is already clear. Guyana has received more than US$1Bn in oil revenue so far this year, with total inflows expected to reach about US$2.5Bn from royalties and crude sales in 2025. By the end of the decade, as cost recovery eases and production continues to expand, annual government earnings are expected to swell toward US$10Bn.
• Oil money has already changed the development arena thanks to the prudent management of the government. With these funds, the government has made tuition at the University of Guyana free and financed the construction of 12 new hospitals. The government has also tied the sector’s growth to a broad development agenda, building roads and bridges, strengthening agriculture, raising salaries, and improving schools and health care.
• Elections in Guyana is due on September 1, 2025, and the ruling PPP/C has indicated its intent to continue this development agenda if reelected.

(Source: Caribbean News Global)

• Barbados successfully exited its second consecutive International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in May 2025, which helped to support the government’s Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) 2.0 domestic reform agenda. Over this period, the primary budget surplus rose by a significant 2.0% of GDP to 4.5%, helping the debt-to-GDP ratio drop back to about 100% last year from nearly 140% as recently as 2020.
• The government has indicated that it will maintain this austere fiscal stance in the coming years, with the primary surplus seen stabilising at current levels. It is expected that Barbados will continue to consolidate the improvements to its economic position in recent years, though it will remain highly vulnerable to shocks as a small island nation with a still heavy debt burden.  
• At 7.0% of GDP in 2024, FDI inflows financed the bulk of Barbados’s sizeable current account deficit, which was pushed wider last year by the negative impact of Hurricane Beryl on the tradable sector. In 2025, it is anticipated that Barbados’ ‘core balance’ will come close to moving into surplus territory, aided by a slight narrowing of the current account deficit on the back of residual strength in the tourism sector and an improvement in the terms of trade driven by a decline in commodity prices. This, in turn, should allow the country to maintain its healthy reserve position, with the import cover ratio currently standing at six months.
• Despite an austere fiscal policy, the economic outlook remains favourable. It is anticipated that growth will ease to about 3.0% this year from 4.0% in 2024, with this deceleration largely a function of fading catch-up effects and the drag from increasingly binding capacity constraints in the key tourism sector, which directly accounts for roughly 20% of GDP, according to the Central Bank of Barbados.
• Notably, the persistently strong non-inflationary growth seen in recent years helped the unemployment rate hit a record low of 6.3% in Q1 2025 in non-seasonally adjusted terms (6.9% in Q1 2024), underpinning relative political stability that is further supporting the reform agenda and creating a positive, self-sustaining cycle that is expected to continue.

(Source: BMI Fitch Solutions)