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Seprod Scales Up, but Q1 Earnings Stall Published: 27 May 2025

  • Despite strong revenue growth, Seprod’s earnings declined, with net profit attributable to shareholders falling 29.4% year-over-year to J$867Mn, down from J$1.23Bn in Q1 2024.
  • Seprod posted a robust 31.9% increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching J$37.70Bn compared to J$28.59Bn in the prior year. This growth was primarily fueled by the ongoing expansion of its distribution segment, particularly through the consolidation of Caribbean Producers Jamaica (CPJ). Seprod now owns 80.0% of CPJ following a mandatory takeover bid.
  • Direct expenses rose by 30.9% (or J$6.52Bn), slightly below the pace of growth in revenues, leading to a marginal improvement in gross margin to 26.7%, up from 26.2% in Q1 2024.
  • However, operating and finance costs climbed significantly, rising by 46.8% and 44.6%, respectively. The increase in operating expenses reflects the larger operational footprint post-acquisition, including higher staffing costs, expanded logistics requirements, and increased administrative overheads associated with managing a more complex, multi-jurisdictional business.
  • Finance costs were driven by additional debt incurred to finance the acquisitions of CPJ and A.S. Bryden. As a result, operating profit remained flat year-over-year at J$2.39Bn. Consequently, while top-line performance was impressive, bottom-line growth was stymied by increased cost pressures, particularly higher finance costs.
  • Nonetheless, the substantial increase in assets underscores Seprod’s expanded scale and positions the company for continued growth if it can realise synergies from its acquisitions. Management remains focused on enhancing productivity, improving operational efficiency, and lowering finance costs going forward to drive profitability.
  • Seprod’s stock price has declined by 6.3% year-to-date, closing at $81.71 as at Monday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27.15x, which is higher than the Main Market Distribution and Manufacturing Sector’s average of 16.0x.

(Sources: Seprod Limited & NCBCM Research Limited)

BIGEE Yielding Positive Results for MSMEs Published: 27 May 2025

  • The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) is reporting that its Boosting Innovation, Growth and Entrepreneurship Ecosystems (BIGEE) programme has yielded positive results within the micro, small and medium-sized enterprise (MSME) sector.
  • “We have seen an average increase of 25 percent in sales for the companies that we have worked with and a 15 percent increase in employment, and they have gone on to raise an additional $100Mn in additional funding to go into their businesses,” said BIGEE Programme Manager, Christopher Brown.
  • “So, we are seeing tangible results from the investments that we have made over the last five years,” he added, while addressing the recent media launch of the ‘Marijuata’ bottled water at Spike Industries Limited’s Winward Road manufacturing plant in Kingston.
  • The objective is to strengthen Jamaica’s entrepreneurial ecosystem and support MSMEs through funding, technical assistance, and mentorship. Under BIGEE, the DBJ has created a Venture Capital Fund and an Angel Fund to provide additional funding options for entrepreneurs. Approximately US$4.9 million has been allocated to the Venture Capital Fund and US$2 million to the Angel Fund.
  • “We are diversifying the landscape of financing, not just traditional debt, where you have to go to the bank to borrow money, but other ways of getting financing into your businesses,” Mr. Brown said. Noting the importance of BIGEE, the Programme Manager said that “innovation should not be the privilege of a few. It should be an opportunity for many. We empower our youth, our entrepreneurs, and our institutions to innovate. The effects will multiply, not just economically but socially and globally”.
  • Initially scheduled to conclude in March 2025, Phase I of the BIGEE Programme has been extended to September 2026.

(Source: JIS)

Bahamas Reports Fiscal Surplus as Opposition Slams Social Spending Cuts Published: 27 May 2025

  • The Government of Bahamas recorded a $58.60Mn fiscal surplus in February 2025, a nearly nine-fold increase over the $6.90Mn surplus posted in the same month last year, according to preliminary data released by the Ministry of Finance in its monthly fiscal summary report for February.
  • The stronger performance was driven by a 20.8 % rise in revenue, which totaled $292.90Mn for the month, and a slight decline in overall spending, which fell by 0.5 % to $234.40Mn. Tax revenue continued to anchor the Government’s income stream, growing by 14.1 % year-over-year to reach $241.10Mn.
  • Value-added tax (VAT) collections rose by $11.50Mn to $103.20Mn, buoyed by increased activity in the domestic goods and services sector. Non-tax revenue surged by 66.5 %, or $20.70Mn, to $51.80Mn, primarily because of higher dividends and surplus fees collected from the banking sector.
  • On the expenditure side, recurrent outlays rose modestly by 2.6 % to $220.90Mn. This included a $9Mn increase in subsidies, which totaled $32.50Mn for the month, and a $3Mn rise in the use of goods and services, now at $57.20Mn. Public debt interest payments declined by $2.50Mn to $23.10Mn.
  • However, social assistance and pension payments fell by $4.90Mn to $18.30Mn. Capital expenditure also increased from $6.80Mn to $13.40Mn in February. Meanwhile, the Government’s overall debt increased by an estimated $28.70Mn during the period.
  • While the monthly numbers showed fiscal improvement, Opposition Shadow Finance Minister J. Kwasi Thompson criticized the broader direction of government spending, pointing to what he called a troubling $9.60Mn cut to social assistance over the first eight months of the fiscal year.

(Source: EYEWITNESS News)

Venezuela Holds Election in Essequibo Region, Escalating Tensions with Guyana Published: 27 May 2025

  • Venezuelans on Sunday voted to elect a governor and other lawmakers for Essequibo, an oil-rich region internationally recognized as part of Guyana but long claimed by Caracas. The vote marked the first time Venezuelans have elected officials for the territory, despite the absence of participation from Essequibo’s 125,000 residents.
  • The election, described by Guyanese President Irfaan Ali as “scandalous, false, propagandistic and opportunistic,” has sharply escalated an already tense border dispute. The vote installed a new governor, six deputies to Venezuela’s National Assembly, and seven members to a regional legislative assembly, all for a region over which Venezuela has no administrative control.
  • It is unclear how the officials, once elected, plan on running the territory, which Guyana governs. Only 42.63% of eligible voters showed up. Many polling stations across the country were nearly empty, especially in urban centers. The ruling party, PSUV, led by Maduro, still secured a sweeping victory, winning 23 out of 24 governor races.
  • The move is the latest flashpoint in a territorial saga that dates back more than a century. It comes over a year after Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared the creation of a 24th state called “Guayana Esequiba” within the disputed territory, following a national referendum supporting the annexation bid.
  • Guyana, which has administered the region since gaining independence in 1966, remains on high alert. The country, with a military force of fewer than 5,000 troops, has ramped up defense ties with the United States in response to Venezuela’s aggressive posture.
  • Venezuela’s claim hinges on the argument that Essequibo was part of its borders during Spanish colonial times, and it has long rejected the 1899 arbitration ruling that delineated the boundary when Guyana was still a British colony. The stakes in the dispute have intensified since the discovery of large offshore oil reserves in Guyana’s waters, making the country one of the world’s fastest-growing oil producers and a future leader in per capita oil output.
  • As the territorial dispute heads back to the international legal stage and the political rhetoric on both sides intensifies, the future of Essequibo remains at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical standoff.

 (Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

U.S. House Bill Would Widen Fiscal Deficit Published: 27 May 2025

  • In a tightly contested vote, the U.S. House of Representatives has approved President Donald Trump’s ambitious tax and spending plan, dubbed the ‘big beautiful’ bill, by a thin margin of 215 to 214 votes. With the legislation now moving to the Senate for a decisive final vote, analysts at Fitch Solutions anticipate its passage in the coming weeks, potentially with minimal adjustments.
  • The budget incorporates a combination of tax cuts for social security payments, tips and overtime; spending cuts to key areas such as agriculture, education, government oversight, among others; and spending increases in areas such as defence and homeland security.
  • According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the bill would add US$2.3Tn in additional deficits over the next decade, compared to its baseline projections, which would keep the deficit near 7.0% of GDP. However, this is potentially an underestimate given that the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget estimates that it could add closer to US$2.5Tn. Fitch’s previous long-term forecast anticipated a gradual reduction of the fiscal deficit to 6.1% of GDP over the next decade.
  • Bond investors have shown some concern about the prospect of widening deficits and increasing government debt, especially given the likelihood of subdued economic growth in the short term. This anxiety is reflected in the rising yields of 10-year and 30-year bonds, which have increased by 50 basis points (bps) and 100 bps, respectively, since early April, largely due to an increase in the term premium. This suggests that investors are demanding higher compensation to hold longer-term debt.
  • In addition, the rise in U.S. yields is also pushing up global bond yields, with many markets seeing a rise in longer-dated yields, particularly Japan. However, part of the recent increase in bond yields can be attributed to slightly improved expectations for the U.S. and global growth. This optimism follows the recent easing of tariff rates, which has led to a decreased probability of a recession in the U.S.

(Source: Fitch Connect)

 

Trump Delays EU Tariffs Until July 9 Published: 27 May 2025

  • U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from his threat to impose 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union (EU) next month, restoring a July 9 deadline to allow for talks between Washington and the 27-nation bloc to produce a deal.
  • Trump had said on Friday, May 23, 2025, that he was recommending a 50% tariff effective from June 1, expressing frustration that trade negotiations with the EU were not moving quickly enough. The threat roiled global financial markets and intensified a trade war that has been punctuated by frequent changes in tariff policies toward U.S. trading partners and allies.
  • However, the U.S. president's softened stance two days later marked another reprieve in his erratic trade policy, even if the latest whipsawing in decision-making reminded policymakers and investors how quickly circumstances could change.
  • In early April, Trump set a 90-day window for trade talks between the EU and the United States, which was to end on July 9. But on Friday, he upended that time frame and said he wasn't interested in a deal at all.
  • Talks have been stuck, with Washington demanding unilateral concessions from Brussels to open up to U.S. business while the EU seeks an agreement in which both sides could gain, according to people familiar with the talks.
  • The EU already faces 25% U.S. import tariffs on its steel, aluminium and cars and so-called "reciprocal" tariffs of 10% for almost all other goods, a levy that had been due to rise to 20% after Trump's 90-day pause expires in July. The levy could now increase to 50% in a no-deal scenario, which could raise consumer prices on everything from motor vehicles to Italian olive oil and even hurt demand for French luxury handbags.

(Source: Reuters)

GK Earnings Increase in Q1, Despite Remittance Slowdown Published: 22 May 2025

  • Food and Financial Services conglomerate, Grace Kennedy Group Limited (GK) reported a net profit of $2.22Bn for the three-month period ending March 2025 (3M 2025). The 3M 2025 profit represented a 3.0% year-over-year (YoY) growth, driven by its Food and Financial Services Segment.
  • GK’s Revenues amounted to $44.22Bn, reflecting a 4.4% year-over-year increase from $42.35Bn.
  • Notably, its food segment - GK Foods outperformed management’s expectations, with revenue and earnings before tax growing by 3.7% and 8.2%, respectively. This growth occurred despite a challenging economic environment marked by declining demand and escalating trade tensions and was supported by its local and international subsidiaries.
  • Locally, GK Food’s earnings growth was driven by Grace Foods & Services, including its retail arm Hi-Lo Food Stores and its manufacturing operations, as strong consumer demand boosted product uptake. In international markets, GraceKennedy Foods (USA) LLC delivered strong quarterly results, supported by improved performance of the Grace and La Fe brands. Additionally, Grace Foods UK and Grace Foods Canada also contributed positively to overall growth.
  • In the Financial Services segment, earnings before tax increased across all sub-segments, except money services, which saw a 31.1% decline. The Insurance segment posted a strong performance, growing by 22.9%, largely driven by expansion in its motor and property insurance portfolios. Meanwhile, the Banking and Investment segment's performance was fueled by the growth of First Global Bank’s loan portfolio.
  • Conversely, Money Services' performance was impacted by reduced remittance flows and transaction volumes in Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago. However, this decline was partially offset by increased market share in Jamaica, its largest remittance market.
  • The Money Services segment has been experiencing a decline, driven by reduced remittance volumes. The proposed 5.0% tax on remittance flows, currently under consideration by US House Republicans and President Donald Trump, presents an additional downside risk to the company’s remittance segment. In response, Group CEO Frank James has outlined a cost-reduction strategy aimed at improving transaction efficiency and affordability for Caribbean nationals in the US, particularly through the company’s GK One platform.
  • GK’s stock price has declined by 9.3% year-to-date, closing at $71.61 as of Wednesday. At this price, the stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.4x, which is lower than the Main Conglomerate Sector’s average of 11.4x.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        

(Sources: JSE & NCBCM Research)

Jamaica Earns Over US$500Mn From Oil Exports Since 2024 Published: 22 May 2025

  • Jamaica has exported 4.5Mn barrels of petroleum products since the start of 2024, generating more than US$500Bn in export earnings, largely from sales to Trinidad and Tobago – Science, Energy, Telecommunications and Transport Minister, Hon. Daryl Vaz disclosed. He highlighted a major milestone: a new contract to supply Trinidad and Tobago with both high-sulphur and very-low-sulphur fuel oil, projected to generate J$14Bn (US$90Mn).
  • Minister Vas also noted that the deal will further strengthen Jamaica’s energy trade position in the region. Between January and December 2024, the Government, through Petrojam, supplied 11.1Mn barrels of petroleum products to both domestic and export markets.
  • “This volume was achieved through a combination of refining and importing finished petroleum products. Crude oil was sourced from key partners, including Barbados, Brazil, Colombia, and Ecuador, ensuring a diversified and stable supply chain,” Minister Vaz told the House.
  • Looking ahead, Minister Vaz said Petrojam will focus on optimising operations while advancing cleaner energy solutions over the next three to five years. Plans include the production and supply of ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD), expanding access to environmentally friendly fuels, and strengthening the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply to support energy diversification.
  • The strategy supports Jamaica’s climate change agenda that emphasises greater use of solar energy, improved refinery efficiency, and increased production of sustainable biofuels.

(Source: Caribbean National Weekly)

LIAT20 to Double Workforce by Year-End Published: 22 May 2025

  • In a significant boost to the local economy, regional carrier LIAT 2020 is set to double its workforce in Antigua and Barbuda by the end of this year. Tourism Minister Charles Fernandez made this announcement in Parliament on May 19, 2025, highlighting the airline’s plans to ramp up operations alongside the addition of new aircraft to its fleet.
  • Currently, LIAT 2020 employs 95 staff at its Antigua base, and the airline projects that this number will increase to approximately 200 by early 2026. This expansion is expected to create new job opportunities and enhance the company's service capabilities in the region.
  • Among the current workforce, 80 employees are Antiguan nationals, while the rest represent a diverse mix of talent from Dominica, Trinidad, St. Vincent, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Martin, Ethiopia, and the United Kingdom.
  • Fernandez shared the update in response to a query from the Leader of the Opposition, Jamale Pringle, and highlighted the wider employment impact of the airline’s growth. “This number is expected to reach around 200 by the end of this year as more aircraft are added. By the way, this does not include indirect jobs locally. I think it’s about 300, right through the region,” he added.
  • He also highlighted the progress being made in pilot training, noting that six Antiguans are currently training to fly LIAT's new jets, with four nearing completion. For the time being, the government plans for these jets to be piloted by Antiguan pilots as well as pilots from other OECS or Caribbean territories.
  • Fernandez emphasised the significance of LIAT20 as a homegrown airline in strengthening Antigua and Barbuda's status as a regional aviation hub. The minister also reported strong tourism growth, observing that March 2025 experienced a record number of air arrivals, surpassing the previous high set in March 2024. Overall, arrivals in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 7.5% compared to 2019, which was the country’s best year before the pandemic.

(Source: Antigua Observer)

Costa Rica’s Tourism Struggles Despite April Rebound Published: 22 May 2025

  • Costa Rica’s tourism industry is sounding the alarm as visitor numbers keep sliding, even with a small uptick in April. The Costa Rican Tourism Institute (ICT) reported that 231,678 travellers arrived by air in April 2025, a 4.6% jump from last year’s 221,573. But folks in the business say this bump, tied to Easter Week’s timing, doesn’t tell the whole story. Tourism, which fuels 8% of the country’s economy and supports jobs in places like Guanacaste and Limón, is facing tough times.
  • According to the ICT, the first three months of 2025 welcomed a total of 632,000 visitors, reaching 63% of the pre-pandemic visitor numbers from 2019. The increase in April can be attributed in part to Easter Week falling in April this year, unlike in March of 2024. This timing contributed to hotel bookings in beach towns nearly reaching 98%, as reported by the Costa Rican Hotels Chamber.
  • However, Tadeo Morales from Movimiento Turismo por Costa Rica (Tourism Movement for Costa Rica) warns it’s not a real recovery. “We’re seeing seasonal spikes, not growth,” he said. Morales noted that the figures from April 2025 are nearly identical to those from April 2023, another month of Easter Week, indicating that the industry remains stagnant.
  • Tourism is facing several challenges. The strong colón, which is currently at ₡500 per U.S. dollar, makes Costa Rica more expensive compared to neighbouring countries like Panama or Colombia. Additionally, a new tax on tourism services and a reduction in flights, with some airlines cutting seats by 15-41%, are contributing to the difficulties, according to the National Chamber of Tourism (CANATUR).
  • Concerns about safety, such as a U.S. travel advisory warning about crime near San José’s airport, along with health alerts regarding histoplasmosis linked to caving1, are deterring visitors. North American travellers, who represent Costa Rica’s largest market, experienced a 7.2% decline in February, with the U.S. seeing a drop of 7.3%.
  • Additionally, industry reports indicate that fewer people are searching for trips to Costa Rica online, suggesting weaker demand in the future. The ICT’s “Only the Essentials” campaign aims to promote Costa Rica in the U.S. and Canada, but CANATUR’s Shirley Calvo emphasised that more needs to be done, including addressing the exchange rate. As May's low season approaches, businesses are worried about tougher months to come.

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1On March 18, 2025, The U.S Embassy alerted citizens of a recent spike in histoplasmosis risks associated with caving activities in Costa Rica. Histoplasmosis is a lung infection caused by a fungus which is primarily found in soil contaminated with bat or bird droppings. Histoplasmosis can lead to serious and potentially life-threatening complications if left untreated.

(Source: Tico Times)