Revenue Gains Will Improve Puerto Rico's Fiscal Position

  • Puerto Rico is expected to see a substantial improvement in its fiscal account as surging revenues; limited spending increases and an eventual return to international capital markets underpin fiscal consolidation.
  • Fitch estimates a general fund gross revenue growth of 25.2% y-o-y in the fiscal year 2019, which it forecasts will decelerate slightly into FY20 on base effects.
  • Over the long term, risks to the fiscal account forecast include Puerto Rico’s poor demographic profile, as population loss and an ageing population shrinks the tax base and increases demands for social spending.

(Source: Fitch)