• United Oil & Gas Plc, the oil and gas company with a high-impact exploration asset in Jamaica and a development asset in the UK, is pleased to announce that Iman Hill, United's Non-Executive Director, has agreed to provide consultancy services to support the progress of the Jamaican project.
• Iman is a highly experienced Petroleum Engineer and has been working in the oil and gas industry for over 30 years.  She has extensive global expertise in both the technical and commercial aspects of the petroleum business, which includes field development, capital projects, commercial negotiations, farm-outs and production operations.
• Iman’s experience spans the Middle East, North and West Africa, South America, the Far East, and the North Sea. She has worked in diverse settings from onshore to ultra-deep water with companies like BP, Shell, BG Group and Dana Gas. In addition to her role as Technical Director, GM UAE and President Egypt, she also ran one of the Egyptian joint ventures as Managing Director and Board member of the Egyptian Bahraini Gas Derivatives Company.
• United Oil’s Chief Executive Officer, Brian Larkin commented: "Iman is a valued member of our board and I am pleased that she has agreed to provide additional support to the Jamaican project during this pivotal phase as we advance our work program and the farm-out process. Iman's extensive experience of farm-outs will greatly benefit the team in the months ahead, and I'm excited to collaborate with her."
• United Oil & Gas has been granted a license by the Jamaican Ministry of Science, Energy, Telecommunications, and Transport (MSETT) to explore oil off-shore Jamaica until Jan. 31, 2026. This license covers 22,400 square kilometers and could contain over 2.4Bn barrels of fuel resource.

(Sources: United Oil & Gas, NCBCM Research)

• Real GDP for the Jamaican economy increased by an estimated 1.7% during the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. This resulted from growth in both the Services and Goods Producing Industries of 2.0% and 8%, respectively.

• All the industries within the Services Industries grew, except for the Producers of Government Services, which declined by 0.4%. There were improved performances in Hotels & Restaurants (8.3%), Transport, Storage & Communication (2.1%), Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repairs; Installation of Machinery & Equipment (1.0%), Other Services (1.1%), Finance & Insurance Services (3.6%), Real Estate, Renting & Business Activities (1.3%) and Electricity & Water Supply (5.2%).
• Growth in the Goods Producing Industries was influenced by higher output levels in the following industries: Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (2.6%), Manufacturing (0.3%) and Mining & Quarrying (21.5%). The Construction industry, however, declined by 3.8% due to reduced activities in building construction and civil engineering. Lower expenditure on the South Coast Highway Improvement Project was the main contributor to the fall in the civil engineering group.

• Preliminary estimates for 2023 indicate that the Jamaican economy expanded by 2.6% in real terms reflecting growth in both the Services and Goods Producing Industries of 3.0% and 1.6%, respectively. Notably, this estimate is 0.6% higher than the 0% projection from the IMF in October.

(Sources: STATIN)

• The twin-island nation of Antigua and Barbuda has made significant strides in its global ranking, now standing at 54 among 193 countries in the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). 
• The HDI is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable, and having a decent standard of living.
• This marks a remarkable climb of 17 places over a relatively short timeframe, from its 2021 rank of 71 and places the country in the “very high” category of the HDI.
• Prime Minister Gaston Browne has hailed this achievement as especially notable in light of the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic.
• “Well, I think it’s an astonishing achievement when you look at the fact that our country’s economy was decimated in 2020 by COVID. We lost 18% of GDP and that we have actually bounced forward to the extent now that the Antigua and Barbuda economy is easily the most vibrant within the Caribbean region, barring Guyana with their recent oil find.”
• In the Caribbean region, Antigua and Barbuda now ranks second, after St Kitts and Nevis at 51. Further to this, Bahamas is ranked at 57, Trinidad at 60, Barbados at 62, and Jamaica at 115.

(Source: Antigua Observer)

• Wigton Windfarm Limited (WIG), along with its joint venture partner, Innovative Energy Company DBA IEC SPEI Limited, entered into a US$ 7.78Mn contract on December 22, 2023 with Montego Bay Jamaica (MBJ) Airports Limited for the design, engineering and installation of roof-mounted and floating solar photovoltaic systems with a capacity of Six Megawatt Alternating Current (6 MWac), along with a Battery Energy Storage System.
• MBJ Airports Limited is the operator of Sangster International Airport, which connects Jamaica with more than 60 international destinations. The Sangster International Airport (SIA) in Montego Bay, St. James, is undergoing significant modernisation designed to transform it into a world-class facility at a cost of approximately US$140Mn. The engagement includes runway extension and civil infrastructure works as well as expansion and redevelopment of SIA’s retail programme.
• Chief Executive Officer of MBJ, Shane Munroe, stated last year that “Eventually, the long-term goal is for Sangster International Airport to be 100 percent powered by renewables, with major investments in solar energy already under way to reduce Jamaica’s dependence on fossil fuels.” These solar powered systems to be supplied by Wigton Windfarm Limited, will be used to reduce the airport’s reliance on the national energy grid.
• Wigton’s primary line of business involves producing wind energy; however, the company has been actively diversifying its business by exploring other alternative energy opportunities in Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. In March 2023, Wigton and Innovative Energy Company Limited (IEC) entered another contract with the Jamaican Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries for solar power projects valued at over US$7.33Mn.
• This latest US$7.78Mn contract underscores Wigton’s commitment to its diversification strategy as it aims to sustain its operations over the long term. By expanding its energy offerings, this will allow Wigton to generate additional revenues and mitigate against its existing business risk stemming from its reliance on Power Purchase Agreements, set to expire in May 2036, with the Jamaica Public Service Company.

(Sources: JSE & JIS)

• Bulk grain shippers hauling crops from the U.S. Gulf Coast export hub to Asia are sailing longer routes and paying higher freight costs to avoid vessel congestion and record-high transit fees in the drought-hit Panama Canal, traders and analysts said.
• The shipping snarl through one of the world's main maritime trade routes comes at the peak season for U.S. crop exports, and the higher costs are threatening to dent demand for U.S. corn and soy suppliers that have already ceded market share to Brazil in recent years.
• Ships moving crops have faced wait times of up to three weeks to pass through the canal as container vessels and others that sail on more regular schedules are scooping up the few transit slots available. Grain ships are often at the back of the line as they usually seek transit slots only a few days before arriving, while others, like cruise and container ships, book months in advance.
• The restrictions could continue to impede grain shipments well into 2024, when the region's wet season may begin to recharge reservoirs and normalize shipping in April or May, analysts said.
• "It's causing quite a disruption both in expense and delay," said Jay O'Neil, proprietor of HJ O'Neil Commodity Consulting. He added that the disruption is unlike any he's seen in his 50 years of monitoring global shipping. Wait times for bulk grain vessels ballooned from around five to seven days in October to around 20 days by late November, O'Neil said, prompting more grain carriers to reroute.
• While grain prices have fallen from 2020 peaks, higher freight costs will be passed on to grain and oilseed importers who buy human food and livestock feed.

 (Source: Reuters)

• Fitch Solutions has lowered its 2023 and 2024 forecasts from 1.7% and 2.0% to 1.5% and 1.8%, respectively, for Colombia as policy tightening will continue to weaken consumption and investment growth.
• This downward revision comes on the back of a previous revision from 2.0% to 1.7%, after the preliminary Q223 real GDP print showed that the economy contracted 1.0% q-o-q in seasonally-adjusted (SA) terms.
• Fitch’s most recent adjustment reflects its updated monetary policy forecast, with persistently elevated inflation likely to push back the timing of the first rate cut by the Banco Central de la República (BanRep) from September to October, with the possibility of even further delays to December.
• With inflation remaining sticky through 2024, Fitch expects BanRep (Colombian Central Bank) will keep rates higher for longer, which will keep borrowing costs elevated and depress investment and private consumption growth.
• That being said, uncertainty regarding interest rates does pose some downside risk to Fitch’s growth forecasts. While Fitch expects that rate cuts will likely begin in October, inflation remains hot. If headline or core inflation remains stickier than expected, BanRep would likely delay the cuts to December 2023 or possibly 2024. This would keep borrowing costs high and would lead to a more pronounced slowdown in 2023 and likely the early months of 2024.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The U.S. economy posted its first period of positive growth for 2022 in the third quarter, at least temporarily easing recession fears, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday, Oct. 27.
• GDP, a sum of all the goods and services produced from July through September, increased at a 2.6% annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. That was above the Dow Jones forecast of 2.3%.
• That reading follows consecutive negative quarters to start the year, meeting a commonly accepted definition of recession, though the National Bureau of Economic Research is generally considered the arbiter of downturns and expansions.
• The growth came in large part due to a narrowing trade deficit, which economists expected and consider to be a one-off occurrence that won’t be repeated in future quarters.
• GDP gains also came from increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and government spending. The report reflected an ongoing shift to services spending over goods, with spending on the former increasing by 2.8% while goods spending dropped by 1.2%.

(Source: CNBC)

• Brazil’s current account deficit will narrow from 2.3% of GDP in 2022 to 2.1% of GDP in 2023, as import growth cools more rapidly than exports. Fitch’s forecast for 2022 is a revision from 1.9% previously, as the goods trade surplus has been narrower than anticipated.
• Notably, in the year through September, Brazil ran a current account deficit of USD29.6Bn, notably wider than at the same point in 2021, and is on track to post the widest deficit since before the pandemic.
• The widening of the overall deficit was driven by a larger services trade deficit, as Brazilians resumed outbound travel as the pandemic faded; and an expansion of the primary income deficit, as foreign companies have increased repatriations due to high commodity prices and stronger growth in Brazil.
• In 2023, goods export and import growth will both slow, as the world economy weakens. Consequently, Fitch forecast 5.1% growth in exports, and 3.2% in imports in 2023, widening the goods trade surplus from 2.1% of GDP in 2022 to 2.4%.
• On the export front, it is expected that prices for Brazil’s primary commodity exports – including iron ore, soybeans, coffee and crude oil – will ease, with none likely to return to the highs seen in H1 2022. While on the import front, moderating commodity prices will cut the cost of Brazil’s import bill.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)

• The House of Representatives on Tuesday (June 21) approved the General Consumption Tax (Amendment of Schedule) Order, 2022, Resolution, which will facilitate the exemption of lithium-ion batteries from General Consumption Tax (GCT). 
• Minister of Finance and the Public Service, Dr. the Hon. Nigel Clarke mentioned that as the Government seeks to achieve accelerated and aggressive increases in renewable energy penetration, lithium-ion batteries will play a pivotal role in that energy transition, adding that they are also aligned with the policy to promote electric vehicles. 
• Clarke explained that the Ministry of Science, Energy and Technology over the years has been in constant dialogue with his Ministry about the category of items that constitute and represent appropriate technology, for which the Government’s long-standing policy of promoting renewables would mean that they would be subject to a differential tax regime. He said lithium-ion batteries were not among that list of about 14 items, “but technology has changed, and lithium-ion batteries are no longer only used in portable electronics, but now are increasingly being used in renewable technologies”. 
• This action by the Ministry of Finance is influenced by the positive impact that the use of energy-efficient technologies has on reducing costs associated with electricity generation, especially in a time when energy prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions. 
• If assessed against 2019 data, the government will likely lose $193Mn in revenues from this GCT exemption on lithium-ion batteries. However, the move will help the government to achieve its renewable energy target of 33% by 2030 and 50% by 2037 and yield costs savings from reduced non-renewable energy bills over the long-term. 
• Companies such as Tropical Battery which are diversifying operations to take advantage of the shift in the energy policy to cleaner, renewable energy will also benefit. Tropical Battery has added a new subsidiary Tropical Mobility, an electric mobility solutions company, to serve the needs of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) market. It has also expanded its recycling partnership to include lithium-ion batteries which will support revenue generation as the GCT exemption incites greater demand for technologies such as cars which use lithium-ion batteries.

(Sources: JIS News & NCBCM Research)