Jamaica Key Country View- Fitch

• Fitch expects Real GDP growth in Jamaica to continue to decelerate over the coming quarters as Sluggish activity in the mining, construction and agricultural sectors outweigh steady growth in private consumption.
• The 2019 real GDP forecast was revised from 2.1% to 1.6% and  the 2020 forecast from 1.8% to 1.4%. Low unemployment and infighting among the opposition People’s National Party have the increased possibility that Prime Minister Andrew Holness will call an election in H120.
• IMF-backed reforms, including fiscal consolidation, inflation targeting and a more liberalised exchange rate regime, will likely outlive the September conclusion of the current Stand-By Arrangement. The government will also focus on combating rising crime rates, which pose a threat to social and economic stability, bolstering the agricultural sector and deepening domestic capital markets.     
• Fiscal consolidation will remain a government priority, but Fitch notes that policy fatigue will likely limit the scope for future cuts. Revenue growth will be supported by rising economic activity and an updated tax regime, while expenditures are contained.  
• External account stability is unlikely to be challenged by a sustained current account deficit in the coming years. Improved reserves and capital inflows will likely be sufficient to ensure stability.

(Source: Fitch)