Jamaica 10-Year Forecast

  • Jamaica will see stronger economic performance over the coming years following a reform program which will put the country on a more sustainable growth trajectory.
  • After poor economic governance led to two sovereign debt defaults since 2010, Jamaica is now closely coordinating policy with the IMF in a bid to improve its business environment, rein in government spending, diversify its economy, and reduce its external vulnerabilities.
  • As a result of recent and upcoming initiatives, Fitch is forecasting that real GDP growth will average 2.0% over the next decade, compared to an average of just 0.2% over the past ten years.
  • Following difficult reforms including streamlining the government and reducing public outlays, Jamaica's fiscal deficit has turned into a modest surplus, and this to continue over the coming decade.
  • Although Jamaica has lowered its corporate tax rate - part of its ongoing efforts to improve the business environment and incentivise investment - the government has worked to simplify its consumption tax framework and eliminate tax breaks for some industries, which will lead to increased revenues over the longer term.

(Source: Fitch)