Falling Remittances, Exports To Push Guatemalan Current Account Into Deficit

• Guatemala’s current account will flip from a surplus of 2.2% of GDP in 2019 to a deficit of 0.2% in 2020 as a large recession in the US undermines remittance inflows and demand for Guatemalan exports.
• As a result, we at Fitch Solutions have revised down our 2020 current account forecast from a 1.5% surplus to a 0.2% deficit.
• While steeper than expected recession in the US poses downside risks to our forecast, sizeable foreign reserves bolster Guatemala’s overall account stability.

(Source: Fitch)