Sharp Recession In Guatemala As Pandemic Undermines Private Consumption, Exports

• Guatemala will experience a sizeable recession in 2020, as public health restrictions and falling remittance inflows weigh on private consumption and reduced external demand leads to a contraction in exports.
• Fitch has revised down its 2020 real GDP forecast from -2.1% y-o-y to -2.9%, as the economic impact of Covid-19 has worsened in recent weeks. Economic activity is expected to rebound to 3.5% growth in 2021.
• The possibility of a second wave of infections in H220 poses downside risks to Fitch’s outlook for the Guatemalan economy.

(Source: Fitch)