Economic Activity Will Surge In Guyana Despite Global Headwinds, Political Risks

• Accelerating oil production and sustained investment will underpin a significant economic expansion in Guyana over the coming quarters, bucking the global headwinds from the Covid-19 pandemic.
• Fitch Solutions forecasts that the Guyanese economy will grow 24.6% y-o-y in 2020 and 18.5% in 2021, from an estimated 4.7% in 2019.
• That said, ongoing political uncertainty and the lack of high-frequency economic data present significant risks to our forecast, particularly if the US or other foreign governments authorize sanctions against Guyanese government officials for refusing to leave office after the March 2020 election.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)