Substantial Contraction In Sint Maarten In 2020 Will Exceed Recent Downturns

• The Covid-19 pandemic will cause a historic contraction in Sint Maarten in 2020 as a collapse in tourism activity pushes unemployment higher and weighs on economic growth. 
• While Fitch Solutions expects a global economic rebound will support domestic real GDP in 2021, a second wave of Covid-19 cases in North America that extends the economic downturn and blunts demand for overseas travel would threaten Sint Maarten's recovery.
• Fitch Solutions has revised its 2020 real GDP growth forecast to -16.6% y-o-y, from -4.3% previously, as the scope of the global recession and minimal overseas travel will cause sharp downturns in many Caribbean markets. However, they forecast 7.4% growth in 2021, largely due to base effects in tourism.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)