Severe Q2 Downturn Confirms Downbeat Outlook For Colombia

• Colombian real GDP fell 15.7% y-o-y in Q2 2020, after a 1.1% expansion in Q1 2020, as the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting government restrictions on mobility and economic activity caused the largest quarterly contraction on record and the first y-o-y decline in over 20 years.
• Private consumption (15.9%), fixed capital investment (32.2%), exports (27.4%) and imports (28.8%) all registered double-digit declines, while government consumption increased 3.0% y-o-y.
• It is forecasted that real GDP will contract 5.0% y-o-y in 2020, with risks heavily weighted to the downside. The 2021 outlook, however, is more upbeat, with forecast 3.6% growth.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)