Vaccine Roll-Out In Tourism Source Markets To Boost Barbadian Recovery

• The accelerated roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in key tourism source markets will bolster the rebound of Barbadian exports in the quarters ahead. Overall, Fitch Solutions forecast exports to grow by 11.8% y-o-y in 2021.
• As of April 20, the UK and US, which accounted for 32.9% and 30.7% of long-stay arrivals in 2019, had vaccinated the second and fourth-largest share of their population in the world.
• That said, as the vaccination programs in both countries continue to accelerate, the agency expects demand for tourism in Barbados to increase significantly.
• The return of tourism activity will boost private consumption in the quarters ahead. Firms in the tourism industry, which accounted for 33.4% of total employment in 2019, will begin rehiring workers to meet renewed demand, which will boost household incomes and thereby private consumption. The average unemployment rate is expected to fall to 15.0% in 2021, down from an estimated average of 27.0% in 2020.
• As a result, Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 and 2022 real GDP growth forecasts to 3.1% y-o-y and 3.5%, respectively, from 2.4% and 3.2%, previously.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)