Trade Surplus, Continued IMF Financing Bolster Ecuador's External Accounts Stability

• Fitch Solutions expects a growing goods trade surplus will widen Ecuador’s current account surplus to 3.1% of GDP in 2021, up from 2.5% in 2020. The agency has revised its forecast up from a surplus of 2.7% previously, to reflect its expectation that higher oil prices will boost goods exports.
• Higher global oil prices will underpin a surge in exports, while labor market weakness and subdued household incomes will weigh on import demand.
• Risks to external accounts stability have waned due to an improving oil price outlook, Guillermo Lasso’s victory in the run-off presidential election, and the passage of critical reforms that bring Ecuador in compliance with its IMF agreement.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)