US Unlikely To Grant Venezuela Sanctions Relief

• On June 18, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro used a TV interview with Bloomberg Television to ask the Biden administration to ease sanctions on his regime, citing their humanitarian cost. Maduro also stated he plans to restructure the government’s US$60.0Bn in outstanding debt if sanctions are lifted. 
• On June 20, the US State Department indicated that any shift in US policy would require major changes in Venezuela, including a path to free and fair elections and the restoration of political rights. 
• The Biden administration’s dismissal of Maduro’s request for sanctions relief is in line with Fitch’s view that the US will not adjust its approach to Venezuela unless the Maduro government offers significant concessions around electoral conditions, such as allowing international observers or moving presidential elections forward from 2024. 
• With or without a change in stance from the US, Fitch maintains its view that a window for talks between the Venezuelan government and opposition exists. Guaidó has recently adopted a more pragmatic stance that would include negotiations with the Maduro government, which he had previously rejected. 
• Talks would likely centre on electoral conditions and opposition participation in local elections scheduled for November. Given the opposition’s growing acceptance that its ‘all-or-nothing’ approach has failed and the Venezuelan government’s desire to both appeal to the US and to have the opposition legitimize the upcoming elections by participating, the agency sees scope for compromise in the coming months.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)