Remittance Inflows &, Tourism Recovery Will Flip Jamaica's Current Account Deficit to Surplus

• It is projected that Jamaica will run a current account surplus in the quarters ahead as remittance inflows and rebounding tourism activity widen the country’s secondary income surplus and services trade surplus, respectively. 
• A sluggish economic recovery will constrain Jamaican demand for imported goods, slowing the goods trade deficit’s return to pre-pandemic levels. 
• As such, Fitch Solutions has revised its 2021 current account surplus forecast to 1.0% of GDP, from its previous forecast of a 1.4% deficit, and its 2022 forecast to a 0.5% surplus, from a 1.4% deficit, due to the continued strength of remittance inflows and the 2020 deficit being narrower than previously expected. Remittances trended upward throughout 2020 increasing by 25% to reach its highest annual total of US$2,678.80Mn. This trend has continued in 2021 thus far rising by 70.0% in March 2021 to US$305.2Mn relative to March 2020.

(Source: Fitch Solutions & BOJ)