Largest Cuban Protests In Decades Pose A Major Challenge For The PCC

• A wave of protests in Cuba fueled by economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic serve as the most open sign of discontent with the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) government in decades and suggest a rise in social stability risks. 
• Minimal growth is expected in Cuba this year due to US sanctions on travel and remittances and a severe spike in COVID-19, which is preventing a recovery in tourism and day-to-day commerce. 
• Additionally, shortages of hard currency amid rising global commodity prices have caused imports to sharply contract, generating shortages of food, electricity and other basic goods, while the unification of Cuba’s dual currency system in January has generated extremely high inflation. 
• Fitch Solutions expects the government to respond to the political situation with repression of demonstrators and potentially minor concessions aimed at taking the momentum out of the protests. 
• Further, while protests could continue to grow in size, Fitch believes the PCC’s extensive security apparatus and the relatively disorganized opposition limit the risks to the party’s hold on power.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)