Earthquake In Haiti Further Compounds Economic And Political Crises

• Economically, the recent earthquake is likely to further suppress activity, particularly through disruptions of exports and potential contribution to inflation. While the earthquake was of a higher magnitude than the 2010 quake, which caused real GDP to contract by 5.5%, Fitch does not anticipate it will be as economically devastating, given that the economic capital of Port-au-Prince appears to have been largely spared major damage. 
• That being said, Haiti has produced extremely little macroeconomic data over the last several quarters, making it difficult to assess the economy's performance amid the COVID-19 pandemic, political upheaval and now the latest earthquake. 
• Fitch Solutions currently estimates real GDP contracted 7.4% in 2020 and anticipates a rebound of just 0.7% in 2021, although risks to this forecast appear increasingly significant. 
• Politically, the quake will further delay elections and prolong the period of leadership uncertainty. Haiti's government was already in a precarious position prior to the assassination of President Jovenel Moïse on July 7, which plunged the country further into crisis. As a result of these political developments, Fitch Solutions has revised down Haiti's score on its Short-Term Political Risk Index to 27.3 out of 100.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)