Slow Vaccination Campaign Poses Downside Risks To Ruling Bahamian Party's Re-Election Chances

• Fitch Solutions believes there is an increasing probability that the ruling, centre-right Free National Movement (FNM) could fail to win re-election during the snap September 16 parliamentary election in the Bahamas, amid a slow vaccination campaign and rising cases in the country. The Bahamas are in the midst of a second wave of COVID-19 cases, with the 7-day moving average of new cases reaching an all-time high on August 1, and cases remained high throughout the month
• Weak economic activity and Bahamian voters’ tendency to vote for the out of power further undermine the FNM’s prospects. As a result, Fitch has revised down the Bahamas’ score in its Short-Term Political Risk Index (SPTRI) to 67.1 out of 100, from 72.1 due to increased risks to policy continuity.
• That being said, it has not made a final forecast for the election due to a lack of public polling and the large swings that typify Bahamian elections.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)