Key Global Monthly Views: Growth Starting To Slow

• Over the past month, Fitch Solutions has made downward revisions to its growth outlook for the US and China. For the US, the 2021 growth forecast was lowered from 6.2% to 6.0% on the back of continued supply-side challenges. 
• For China, Fitch revised its growth forecast from 8.5% to 8.3%. This has placed downside pressure on the 5.7% global growth forecast that it has penciled in for the full year, and consensus global growth expectations have declined slightly from 6.0% to 5.9% over the past month. 
• These dynamics are confirmed by high frequency data such as exports, purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys, credit growth and confidence indicators - all of which point to the fact that growth peaked several months ago. Looking to 2022, Fitch forecasts another year of above-trend growth of 4.2% although it is also slightly below consensus estimates of 4.5%. Continued progress in terms of vaccinations and only a gradual removal of policy support underpin the view for still-strong growth.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)