UK inflation expectations show a record jump in September

  • The British public's expectations for inflation over the coming year have shot up by a record amount this month, raising the risk that the Bank of England will send a hawkish message soon, Citi said on Tuesday. 
  • The monthly inflation expectations survey showed that public inflation expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.1% in September from 3.1% in August, the biggest monthly increase since the survey began more than 15 years ago. 
  • Longer-term inflation expectations for the next five to 10 years rose to 3.8% in September from 3.5% in August. “Today’s data, especially the movement in long-term expectations, suggest growing risks to inflation expectations could become de-anchored to the upside. The sharp increase risks a hawkish response from the (Monetary Policy Committee) this week," Citi said. 
  • Financial markets expect the BoE to start raising interest rates early next year, possibly as soon as February, though most economists think a move will only come towards the end of 2022.

(Source: Reuters)