Consumption Will Drive Dominican Republic's Economic Recovery To Pre-Pandemic Level By End-2021

  • Fitch Solutions is more upbeat on the Dominican Republic’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic as a swift national vaccination campaign and resilient private consumption drive domestic activity. 
  • As such, the country’s 2021 growth forecast was revised upward to 8.2%, from 6.0% previously, implying that real GDP will fully regain 2019 levels by the end of the year. A 4.8% expansion is also forecasted for 2022. 
  • These upwards revisions imply that Dom Rep’s real GDP will surpass 2019 levels by end-2021 despite a 6.7% contraction in 2020. In the year through July 2021, seasonally adjusted monthly economic output expanded by an average of 14.9% y-o-y, led by a swift rebound in private consumption and exports as the economy reopened. 
  • However, the potential for additional economic shocks from COVID-19 or a faster than expected global monetary policy tightening cycle underpin downside risks to the sovereign’s growth in the short-to-medium term.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)