The Central Bank of Barbados Narrows Its 2021 Growth Forecasts

• The Central Bank of Barbados (CBB) revised its 2021 growth outlook to 1%-2% in its 3Q21 review from the 0%-3% estimate in the 2Q21 review. 
• This was one of several downward revisions to the growth forecast this year, with previous estimates as high as 7%-10% at the onset of the calendar year. Economic activity improved 10% Y/Y in 3Q21, reflecting an improving tourism sector and making the second consecutive quarter of positive growth. 
• However, accumulated activity through the first nine months remains 3.2% below the 2020 level. Long-stay tourist arrivals totaled 43k during the quarter, representing a 225% Y/Y improvement but are 72% below the pre-pandemic level. 
• The results are said to point to the process of a return to normalcy for the pandemic depressed tourism industry, with a speedier recovery contingent on the developments in Barbados’ key source markets as well as the vaccination efforts domestically.

(Source: Oppenheimer)