Key Global Monthly Views: New Year, Old Risks

• Fitch Solutions forecast global economic growth to slow from a multi-decade high of 5.5% in 2021 to 4.1% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2023, which would be broadly in line with the five-year pre-pandemic average of 3.1%. 
• As has been the case over most of the past 12 months, Fitch’s 2022 forecast remains below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 4.4%, although the consensus seems to be converging slightly lower. 
• The latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) data show that economic momentum remains robust across developed markets (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), with the number of major DMs and EMs with PMI readings above the crucial 50 mark increasing in recent months. 
• However, several developments have recently emerged which have added downside risks to Fitch 2022 growth forecasts. These include the new COVID19 variant Omicron, more hawkish stances by central banks, and greater financial market volatility.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)