Inflation outlook highly uncertain, ECB's Holzmann tells the paper

  • There is "a great deal of uncertainty" over how long inflation will remain well above the European Central Bank's target of around 2%, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann said in an interview with newspaper Die Presse that was published on Sunday. 
  • The ECB has long held the view that inflation will decline this year from its current record high, an expectation its President Christine Lagarde repeatedon Friday. 
  • Eurozone inflation hit 5% in December, more than twice the ECB's target, but the bank sees it back below 2% by the fourth quarter. "It is not yet ruled out that that will happen. However, we also do not know whether inflation will stay at a higher level after all," Holzmann, who is governor of the Austrian National Bank, told Die Presse. 
  • Second-round effects like wage increases would be decisive, he added and, like Lagarde, he said that for now there was no sign of a price-wage spiral, but much would depend on wage negotiations this year. 
  • "Fundamentally there is, therefore, the danger of a wage-price spiral. I believe, however, that labour and employer representatives are acting very rationally and thoughtfully here," Holzmann said.

 (Source: Reuters)