Weak Tourism Demand in 2022 To Cap Growth in Antigua and Barbuda

• Antigua and Barbuda real GDP growth is expected to increase by 3.8% in 2022, from an estimated 1.2% in 2021, as economic activity strengthen in H2 2022 as tourism demand rebounds.
• However, the government’s limited capacity to deploy countercyclical spending measures will restrain domestic demand and consumption. Omicron surges in the US, Canada, and the UK in recent months could weaken near-term tourism inflows to Antigua & Barbuda. The U.S. and U.K. remained the islands’ main source markets, combining a total of 17,306 visitors or 92% of the total visitors arriving in August 2021. The U.S. market continues to dominate as the main source market with 52.5% of the total visitor arrivals while the U.K. contributed 39.5% of the total visitor arrivals. 
• Despite near-term headwinds from Covid-19, tourism inflows are expected to strengthen throughout H2 2022 due to higher vaccination rates and increasing willingness to travel in developed markets. Furthermore, Antigua and Barbuda’s economy is forecast to reach 2019 GDP levels by 2027, with 4.5% growth in 2023, and growth averaging 3.2% between 2024-2027 on the back of improved vaccination rates. According to Our World in data as of January 26, 60% of the population in Antigua and Barbuda has been fully vaccinated and 64% of the population has at least one dose of a vaccine.  

 (Sources: Fitch Solutions & NCBCM Research)