A Stronger Tourism Rebound Will Drive Jamaican Growth In 2022

• Jamaica will see 4.2% real GDP growth in 2022, up from an estimated 4.1% in 2021, as a stronger tourism rebound will drive services exports and private consumption, according to forecasts from Fitch Solutions. 
• It had revised its 2021 estimate from 4.6% previously, as a spike in COVID-19 cases in the summer led to lockdowns that slowed the recovery in tourism, holding total visitor arrivals to only 32.3% of 2019 levels in the year through October. 
• Nevertheless, it is estimated that private consumption saw solid growth, supported by a record spike in remittances to US$3.4Bn (24.6% of GDP) and US$24.0Mn (0.2% of GDP) in stimulus spending from the government CARE programme, which disbursed one-off cash transfers to vulnerable members of the population in the final months of 2021. 
• Going forward, exports are expected to grow by 10.1% in 2022 as declining cases of COVID-19 in key source markets will support tourism inflows to Jamaica, though the pace will slow from an estimated 16.8% in 2021 due to less favourable base effects.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)