Jamaica 10-Year Forecast

• Fitch Solutions expects the Jamaican economy to rebound quicker in 2022 than in 2021 as the tourism sector growth is set to accelerate in H222, with real GDP projected to grow by 4.2% for 2022. As a small, open economy, the pace of Jamaica's rebound will depend on how quickly global economic activity recovers.  In particular, the rollout of vaccinations in the US and Europe, key source markets for tourism, exports, and remittances will determine how Jamaican real GDP growth rebounds in 2022. 
• Over the medium term, however, Fitch expects Jamaica to see stronger economic performance following a reform programme that will put the country on a more sustainable growth trajectory. 
• After poor economic governance led to two sovereign debt defaults since 2010, Jamaica is now closely coordinating policy with the IMF in a bid to improve its business environment, rein in government spending, diversify its economy and reduce its external vulnerabilities. 
• As a result of recent and upcoming initiatives, Fitch is forecasting that real GDP growth will average 2.4% over the next decade. This remains significantly above the average of just 0.2% over the past 10 years.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)