Inflation Outlook For Consumers Falls From Record High, Fed Survey Shows

  • Consumers grew a little more optimistic about inflation in April, though they still expect to be spending considerably more in the year ahead, a Federal Reserve survey released Monday shows. 
  • Inflation expectations over the next year fell to a median of 6.3%, a 0.3 percentage-point decrease from the record high in March, according to data going back to June 2013. On a three-year basis, expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.9%, which itself is 0.3 percentage point off the record. The data comes with 12-month inflation in March running at 8.5%, the highest level since December 1981. April consumer prices are due to be reported on Wednesday. 
  • Responding to the surge in prices, the Fed last week raised benchmark interest rates by a half percentage point, the biggest hike in 22 years and the second increase of the year. 
  • Americans are still leery about the high cost of living. Household spending is projected to rise 8% over the next year, according to the New York Fed survey. That’s a 0.3 percentage point increase from a month ago and another series high. 
  • However, there also was some optimism, as consumer expectations for gas price increases fell to 5.2%, a 4.4 percentage point drop that came as oil prices edged lower in April. Respondents also grew more secure in their jobs, with just 10.8% expecting to lose their employment over the next 12 months, which tied for an all-time low. 
  • Expectations for home prices were unchanged, but the 6% anticipated increase is still higher than the long-term average.

(Source: CNBC News)