Jamaica’s Real GDP Outlook

• Real GDP is projected to trend upwards at an average rate in the range 2.0% to 4.0% over the June 2022 to March 2024 quarters, but remain below potential output over the forecast horizon. The projected growth in the economy largely reflects the normalization of economic activity, partly offset by weaker external demand. 
• From the perspective of aggregate supply, growth is anticipated in Hotels & Restaurants, Other Services, Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Transport, Storage & Communication, Manufacture, Electricity & Water and Construction. 
• The projected growth in Hotels & Restaurants and Other Services reflects the continued improvement from the travel industry as the number of flights coming into the Island continues to increase, given the low COVID-19 positivity rate. 
• Improvement in Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing is anticipated, given the forecasted demand from tourism, increased investments in traditional crop production, and various initiatives by the Government to assist the industry. This growth may, however, be constrained by the negative effect of higher input cost on production and productivity. 
• In addition, the growth of Manufacture is largely predicated on increased food and beverage production, reflecting the anticipated further improvement in education, entertainment, and tourism, relative to the previous year. For Electricity & Water, growth is premised on the increased electricity and water consumption given the normalization in business activities, particularly in the tourism industry as well as recreational and sporting activities. With regard to Construction, growth, though moderating relative to prior periods, is premised on a projected increase in spending on residential and commercial construction.

(Source: BOJ Quarterly Monetary Policy Report)