Macro Poverty Outlook for Jamaica

• Jamaica's real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has averaged $4,746 over the past decade, below the average for the 1990s ($4885.36), and has declined further with the pandemic. Falling per capita income coincided with a larger share of the population at work suggesting declining average labour productivity. 
• Jamaica’s low growth and declining productivity are attributed to a long list of constraints, such as pervasive crime and violence which discourage investments. 
• The country is also vulnerable to climate shocks, such as natural disasters, which affect mainly vulnerable groups as well as key sectors like tourism and agriculture. Further, the costs of energy and internet connectivity are extremely high even by regional standards and there are gaps in human capital with high migration of skilled labour and a weakening in learning and education outcomes. 
• Despite a steep reduction of public debt in recent years, from 145% to an estimated 96% of GDP between 2013 and 2021, it remains among the highest in the region. As such, faster growth is needed to reduce the debt burden and create space for pro-poor interventions. Achieving the target of a debt stock of at least 60% of GDP by 2028 as outlined in the Fiscal Responsibility Law will require addressing constraints to growth while improving the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending.

(Source: World Bank)