U.S. Economy Contracts For Second-Straight Quarter, GDP Falls At 0.9% Pace In Q2

  • The U.S. economy contracted again in the second quarter amid aggressive monetary policy tightening from the federal reserve to combat high inflation, which could fan financial market fears that the economy was already in a recession.
  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate of Q2 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 0.9% annualized decrease in economic growth for the three-month period ended June 30. This was slightly lower than the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Q2 GDP estimate of -1.2%.
  • This follows from the contraction reported in Q1. During the first quarter, U.S. economic activity unexpectedly contracted for the first time since the second quarter of 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy. The government's third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP showed a 1.6% annualized drop in economic growth to start 2022.
  • The government's preliminary reading on second-quarter GDP — the broadest measure of economic activity — comes one day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference that he did not believe the economy is in a recession, even as other economic indicators show signs of softening.
  • Consecutive quarters of falling GDP constitute one informal, though not definitive, indicator of a recession.
  • The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), says a formal recession "is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators."
  • Job averaged 456,700 per month in H1 2022, which is generating strong wage gains. Still, the risks of a downturn have increased. Homebuilding and house sales have weakened while business and consumer sentiment have softened in recent months. 

(Source: Yahoo Finance)