Point to Point Inflation increases to 9.9% for October

 

• For October 2022, the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.5%, the second-highest increase for 2022. This contributed to a point-to-point inflation rate of 9.9% for October, a slight jump relative to September’s point-to-point inflation figure of 9.3%.
• For October, the rise in monthly inflation was largely driven by an increase in the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ (+3.4%) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ (+2.0 %) divisions. These increases were due mainly to higher rates for electricity, water, and sewage, as well as higher costs for agricultural products.
• Though there was an uptick in the point-to-point outturn in October, the current rate of 9.9% is keeping with expectations, as the BOJ noted that inflation was projected to stabilize in the range of 9.0% to 11.0% for the remainder of 2022. 
• On November 18, 2022, the BOJ will host its monetary policy meeting in which it is expected to sustain its hawkish stance.  Given the increase in inflation for October and the recent 75bps Fed Fund rate hike it is expected that the BOJ will raise rates by another 50 bps. This increase would bring the policy rate to 7.00%, which would be consistent with Fitch’s forecast.

(Source: Statin and NCBCM Research)