World Banks See The Global Economy Slowing More in 2023, With Likely U.S. Recession
- The world's largest investment banks expect global economic growth to slow further in 2023 following a year roiled by war and soaring inflation that triggered one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles in recent times.
- The U.S. Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 375 basis points this year since rolling out its first hike in March. This has sparked worries about a recession, even as the central bank is expected to temper its pace of hikes.
- Real GDP (annual Y/Y) forecasts for 2023:
|
Bank |
Global |
U.S. |
China |
|
Morgan Stanley |
2.20% |
0.50% |
5% |
|
Goldman Sachs |
1.80% |
1.1% |
4.50% |
|
Barclays |
1.70% |
-0.1% |
3.80% |
|
JPMorgan |
- |
1% |
- |
|
BNP Paribas* |
2.3% |
-0.10% |
4.50% |
|
UBS |
2.1% |
0.1% |
4.5% |
- Morgan Stanley sees the Fed delivering its first rate cut by December 2023, taking the benchmark rate to 4.375% by the end of that year. Barclays sees the rate between 4.25% and 4.5% by the end of next year, following a rate cut.
(Source: Reuters)