October Economic Activity Prints To Preview Q4 Slowdowns In Colombia and Mexico

  • Fitch Solutions will monitor the October economic activity prints for Colombia, and Mexico to assess the pace of easing economic growth in Q4 2022 and early 2023.
  • Colombia remained a regional overperformer through Q3 2022, with pent-up demand driving robust private consumption growth in Q3 2022, underpinning Fitch’s 2022 forecast of 7.4% growth.
  • However, a slowdown is anticipated in October through early 2023, as high-frequency indicators have begun to show weakness in Colombian production, which has been impacted by climbing inflation and Banco de la República's ongoing hiking cycle.
  • In Mexico, however, high-frequency indicators point to continued resilience in the manufacturing sector, posing an upside risk to the growth forecast of 2.7% in 2022. That said, Fitch has maintained its view that the Mexican economy will grow just 1.0% in 2023 as interest rates remain elevated and US demand softens.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)