Barbados 2023 Outlook – Fitch  

  • Fitch Solutions forecasts that real GDP growth will slow to 4.9% in 2023, from an estimated 10.4% expansion in 2022, as the recovery of the tourism sector continues.
  • Barbados’ economic recovery is expected to limit risks to social stability in the coming quarters. In addition, policy continuity is anticipated to persist following Prime Minister Mia Mottley's call for a snap election in Q122 and the Barbados Labour Party's sweep.
  • Rebounding tourism activity in Barbados will boost government revenues, narrowing the fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP in FY2022/23 (April 2022 – March 2023) from 5.9% in the previous fiscal year. Barbados’ current account deficit will also narrow to 9.1% of GDP in 2023, from 9.9% in 2022, as recovering tourism activity drives services exports.
  • The key risks to the outlook are decelerating global growth which is threatening to slow the country’s recovery, coupled with public pressure for increased government support as inflation remains above historical norms.

 (Source: Fitch Solutions)