Point to Point Inflation Falls Further, 8.1% in January

• For January 2023, the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.6% when compared to the previous month. However, the point-to-point inflation rate for the month was 8.1%, which indicates that inflation has been decelerating over the last two months.
• For January, the decline in monthly inflation was largely driven by the 2.4% decrease in the index of the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division and a 0.9% decline in the heaviest weighted division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ division. The main contributor to the movement in the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels division was lower electricity rates. The decline in the ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’ was due to a 5.8% decline in the class ‘Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’ as a result of an oversupply of some agricultural produce.
• These movements, however, were tempered by increases in the index for the divisions; ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’, which increased by 1.3%, and the ‘Education’ division, which increased by 1.4%. 
• The All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 8.1% for the period January 2022 to January 2023. The main contributors to this increase were the divisions ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages’, which moved up by 12.7%, ‘Restaurants and Accommodation Services’, which increased by 15.8%, and ‘Personal Care, Social Protection and Miscellaneous Goods and Services up by 7.7%
• On February 20, 2023, the BOJ will have its monetary policy meeting and we anticipate that the bank will continue to hold the rate steady due to the fact that at the bank’s previous meetings, it was deemed appropriate to pause the policy rate increases and watch the pass-through effects on deposit and loan rates.

(Source: STATIN)