Mexican Inflation Slows More Than Expected Ahead Of Rate Decision; Policy Rate Remains Unchanged

• Mexico's annual inflation hit its lowest in more than two years ahead of a monetary policy decision on Thursday, June 22. As anticipated, the central bank maintained the interest rates at a cycle-high of 11.25%, as the consumer price index remains above target.
• In Latin America's second-largest economy, 12-month headline inflation reached 5.18% in the first half of June, data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) showed, slowing further but far from the central bank's official target of 3%.
• The lowest since March 2021, the level overshot expectations of 5.30% in a Reuters poll of economists. This reinforced the central bank's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 11.25% when it announced its decision on Thursday.
• A rate cut remains unlikely after the Bank of Mexico, known as Banxico, paused a nearly two-year tightening cycle in May suggesting it might need to maintain rates at current levels for an extended period to bring inflation down to target.
• Capital Economics' deputy chief emerging markets economist, Jason Tuvey, said Banxico would "almost certainly leave its policy rate on hold" after the latest consumer price figures, adding he did not forecast a rate cut this year.
• "The strong labour market and rapid wage growth mean that inflation won't return to Banxico's 2-4% tolerance band until late-2024," Tuvey said. "And with the Fed also continuing to strike a hawkish tone, we think that rate cuts in Mexico will not be delivered until early 2024." INEGI data also showed that annual core inflation, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices and has been a cause of concern for the central bank, slid to 6.91% in the first two weeks of June. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected it to hit 7.02%.

(Source: Reuters)