Bermuda's Growth Will Slow Through To 2024

• Fitch Solutions expects the Bermudan economy will grow more slowly than the Caribbean's average of 3.1% over the next decade.
• Net exports will fuel the Bermudan economy's 2.0% average expansion in the 10 years ahead. Through 2032, net exports will contribute an average of 1.0 percentage points (pp)  to real GDP. Private consumption, investment and government consumption increases over the same period will also support overall economic activity.
• Notably, the increase in all GDP components will fuel the market’s 2.3% real GDP expansion in 2023, from an estimated 3.0% expansion in 2022. Net exports will add 1.2pp to GDP in 2023 after adding an estimated 1.8pp in 2022. Additionally, economic output in Bermuda will increase by 2.0% in 2024.
• Bermuda's fiscal accounts have remained in deficit in recent years, however, Fitch forecasts that this solid economic growth will narrow the fiscal deficit to 0.6% of GDP in 2023, from 1.0% in 2022. Revenues are expected to increase by 3.5% in 2023 after 11.3% growth in 2022. Expenditure will rise by 0.8% in 2023.
• In 2024, the fiscal deficit will narrow further to 0.2% of GDP, below its historical average of 2.7% from 2013 to 2022. The improved economic and fiscal performance will allow total government debt levels to fall to 26.2% of GDP by 2032, from 42.2% of GDP in 2023, as growth in revenues outpaces the rise in expenditure.

(Source: Fitch Solutions)