PIOJ Projects Fall in Poverty Rate  

  • The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) is projecting a fall in the poverty rate from 16.7 per cent to which it rose in 2021, representing a 5.7 percentage point increase relative to 2019.
  • Director General, Dr. Wayne Henry, notes that the out-turn reflected the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on household incomes and consumption, which “is in keeping with global and regional expectations and experiences”.
  • Henry indicated, however, that the impact was tempered by positive movements in the macro economy and social interventions by the Government and the private sector.
  • Henry said the overall rise in poverty in 2021 was driven by increases in two regions, noting that the rate in the third was statistically the same. He informed that the rate increased in the Greater Kingston Metropolitan Area by 5.7 percentage points and rural areas by 7.9 percentage points but remained relatively unchanged in other urban centres.
  • He stated that while the Jamaican economy recorded growth of 4.6 per cent in 2021, and employment increased by 8.3 per cent in July 2021 relative to July 2020, real GDP (gross domestic product) was still 5.8 per cent below its 2019 level and employment was 3.3 per cent below what it was in July 2019. These factors explain the higher poverty rate in 2021 relative to 2019. The World Bank estimated that in 2021 about 97 million more people were living on less than US$1.90 per day because of the pandemic, increasing the global poverty rate from 7.8 per cent to 9.1 per cent.
  • Additionally, 163 million more were living on less than US$5.50 per day. Globally, three to four years of progress towards ending extreme poverty are estimated to have been lost. In Jamaica, consumption expenditure data rather than income are used to measure poverty, due to the availability and relative accuracy of the statistics.
  • The rates are first calculated from household data at the regional level and then aggregated nationally.
  • He further highlighted that similar to most economies, Jamaica was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. Going forward, the poverty rate is expected to fall, given the continued improvement in the economy, as reflected in the improvement in real GDP and employment.

(Source: JIS)