Global House Price Downturn Fades, Most Markets To Rise In 2024, Reuters Poll Shows  

• The recent downturn in global property prices is mostly over, with average home prices in major markets now expected to fall less than anticipated at the start of the year and rise into 2024, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts.
• Double-digit price falls that the analysts forecast earlier this year due to rising mortgage rates haven't materialised in full as higher household savings, tight supply, and rising immigration limited declines.
• Many homeowners who locked in cheap mortgages during a long period of near-zero rates, particularly in the United States, have decided to stay put. That has restricted supply and housing market activity.
• But that's more bad news for aspiring first-time homebuyers left on the sidelines for years by tight supply and priced out during the COVID pandemic when existing homeowners outbid them, pushing up house prices at double-digit annual rates.
• Much of the optimism around the unexpected early stabilisation in these markets has stemmed from speculation interest rates have topped out and that as soon as the first half of next year, they'll be coming down again.
• Average U.S. house prices were forecast to stagnate this year and next. In the May and March polls, 2023 values were forecast to fall 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively.
• Affordability is set to remain a problem globally. Overall, a majority of respondents, 55 of 103, who answered a separate question said purchasing affordability for first-time homebuyers would worsen over the coming year. The remaining 48 said improve.

(Source: Reuters)